证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*动态点评 2025 年 03 月 15 日 宏观经济研究 政府债券支撑社融，融资需求仍待提振——2 月金融数据点评 数据： 2 月新增社会融资规模为 2.23 万亿元，同比多增 7374 亿元。2 月社 会融资规模存量同比 8.2%，前值 8.0%。2 月新增人民币贷款 1.01 万亿 元，同比多增 2016 亿元。M1 同比 0.1%，前值 0.4%；M2 同比 7.0%，前 值 7.0%。 要点：2 月份受春节错月导致去年同期基数较高以及 1 月信贷"开门红"效 应的影响，M1 增速均比上个月有所回落，投资消费需求降低，中小型企业 恢复较慢，存款端 M2/M1 小幅回升。财政政策持续发力，政府债融资较 强，2 月社融同比增速 8.2%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点。 存款端看，M1 同比回落，M2 同比与上月持平，M2/M1 剪刀差小幅回升。2 月份 M1 从上月的 0.4%下滑至 0.1%，流动性增速放缓，居民消费意愿下 降，我们理解，今年春节错位，年后消费需求降低，企业经营活跃度还未恢 复。但 M2 同比维持 7%增长，(M2-M1)/M1 从 1 月份的 1.83 大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has acquired 85% of REGEN Biotech, Inc., a leading South Korean medical aesthetics company, which is expected to create synergies in research, production, and sales [1][3]. - The acquisition is a strategic move to enhance the company's international presence and strengthen its market position in the medical aesthetics sector [8]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 3,159 million yuan in 2024, 3,743 million yuan in 2025, and 4,495 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1%, 18.5%, and 20.1% respectively [1][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 1,939 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.9%. For 2023, the revenue is expected to reach 2,869 million yuan, representing a growth rate of 48.0% [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 1,264 million yuan in 2022 to 2,072 million yuan in 2024, with corresponding growth rates of 31.9% and 11.5% [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with values of 28.6% in 2023 and around 25% in the following years [1][9]. Product and Market Position - REGEN Biotech, Inc. has developed two key products, AestheFill and PowerFill, which are recognized for their safety and effectiveness in the medical aesthetics market. AestheFill has received approval in 34 countries, while PowerFill has been approved in 24 countries [2]. - The company plans to leverage the acquired company's products to enhance its international market presence, particularly with AestheFill now approved for sale in China [3][8].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 12 日 珍酒李渡（06979.HK） 五十年酿一壶好酒，启新程攀世界一流 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5856 | 7030 | 7501 | 8274 | 9254 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 14.8 | 20.1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 11.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1029.87 | 2327.08 | 1592.45 | 2005.12 | 2414.22 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -0.2 | 126.0 | -31.6 | 25.9 | 20.4 | | ROE（%） | -27.0 | 18.4 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 12.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.30 | 0.69 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.71 | | P/E（倍） | 24.9 | 11.0 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 10.6 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][20]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on revenue, but initial results from brand and channel empowerment are showing effectiveness [1]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in China Resources Shenghuo has been integrated into the company's financials, leading to a projected revenue of 8.401 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.07% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on "chronic disease management" and aims to become a leader in the "silver health industry" and "chronic disease management" [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Projections: - 2023A: Revenue of 8,430 million yuan, net profit of 541 million yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 8,401 million yuan, net profit of 648 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 9,214 million yuan, net profit of 749 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 10,220 million yuan, net profit of 914 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 11,316 million yuan, net profit of 1,121 million yuan [1][9]. - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 1.8% for 2023, -0.3% for 2024, and 9.7% for 2025 [1]. - Net profit growth rates are projected at 41.1% for 2023, 19.9% for 2024, and 15.6% for 2025 [1]. - Profitability Metrics: - Gross margin for 2024 is projected at 43.46%, with a net profit margin of 7.71% [3]. - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.1% in 2023 to 14.0% by 2027 [1]. Segment Performance Summary - Revenue by Segment for 2024: - Oral preparations: 36.93 billion yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year - Injection preparations: 5.39 billion yuan, down 49.09% year-on-year - Pharmaceutical wholesale and retail: 36.55 billion yuan, up 6.07% year-on-year [2]. - Key Products: - The core products in the oral preparations segment, including "Kunchinese Medicine 1381" and others, have shown a combined growth of 20% [2]. - The company is enhancing its brand and channel strategies to solidify its market position [4].

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 外部不确定性加剧，"两会"政策指引助力中国资产价值重估 外部不确定性加剧：美国主要股指自今年 2 月中旬以来持续调整。2 月 14 日 -3 月 11 日，纳斯达克指数、标普 500 指数、道琼斯指数分别调整-12.94%%、 -8.87%、-6.99%。近期海外不确定性因素有所加剧，包括特朗普关税政策的 巨大不确定性，美国政府债台高筑且物价下降缓慢，政府效率部工作进展可 能引发人事震动等。美股开启大幅调整的重要催化，主要在于近期美国公布 的多项经济数据指标都暗示了滞涨甚至衰退的潜在可能。 如何看待美股科技股回调：本轮美国科技股的 risk off 可能已经"蓄谋已久"。 如果观察 2023 年开启的 AI 行情的最大受益者英伟达，其股价在 2024 年 6 月 20 日突破 140 美元关口后，已经经历了一个较长周期的震荡行情，虽然 在今年年初一度创下历史新高，但动量较过去两年已经显著走弱。从中长期 来看，AI 叙事以及财政赤字大幅增长这两个美股过去两年大涨的主要驱动力 也正在松动。美股科技股的阵痛期可能仍未结束。 海外资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a forecasted stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19% and a net profit growth of 20% in 2024, with projected revenues of 24.006 billion yuan and net profits of 3.841 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company has established a partnership with Adidas starting in 2024, which is anticipated to enhance its customer base and revenue streams [2]. - The company has expanded its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, contributing to a 17.53% increase in sneaker sales in 2024, totaling 223 million pairs sold [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenues of 20.569 billion yuan in 2022, with a slight decline to 20.114 billion yuan in 2023, followed by a projected increase to 24.006 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit was 3.228 billion yuan in 2022, slightly decreased to 3.200 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to rise to 3.841 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to increase from 2.77 yuan in 2022 to 3.29 yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23.4 in 2022 to 19.6 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1][4]. Production and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched three new factories in Vietnam and is expanding its production capabilities in Indonesia and China to mitigate geopolitical risks [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its customer structure and expanding production capacity in response to customer demand and growth plans [2].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 13 日 联科科技（001207.SZ） 2024 年公司利润快速增长，看好高压导电炭黑项目应用领域拓展 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,917 | 2,266 | 2,993 | 3,329 | 3,925 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 4.4 | 18.2 | 32.1 | 11.2 | 17.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 169 | 272 | 352 | 433 | 551 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 51.3 | 61.5 | 29.3 | 23.0 | 27.3 | | ROE（%） | 9.7 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 17.2 | 18.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.83 | 1.34 | 1.74 | 2.14 | 2.72 | | P/E（倍） | 26.1 | 16.2 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 8.0 | | P/B ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [3][17]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its closing performance, with a reported revenue of 18.56 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.95%, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [1]. - The company focuses on differentiated operations, achieving a revenue of 11.07 billion yuan from photovoltaic products, despite a year-on-year decline of 13.36%, while shipments increased by 73% to 17.2 GW [2]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 20.91 billion yuan, 24.02 billion yuan, and 26.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 2.05 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.54 billion yuan [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 19.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.82 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.9% [1]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.26 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.0, 10.8, and 9.7 [7]. - The company’s magnetic materials segment contributed 4.58 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 27.32%, while the lithium battery segment achieved a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 56% [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2025 年 03 月 13 日 通信 禾赛激光雷达全年出货量大幅增长，车载、机器人激光雷达市场景 气度高增 事件：3 月 11 日，据禾赛科技官方公众号，公司公布了 2024 年第四季度以 及全年未经审计的财务数据，收入创历史新高，成为全球首家且唯一实现全 年盈利的上市激光雷达企业，展现我国在激光雷达领域的领先能力。 禾赛科技全年业绩实现强劲增长，2025 年交货量有望飙升 2倍以上。2024 年，据禾赛科技官方公众号，公司以强劲的财务表现和市场表现，收入创历 史新高，稳居行业榜首，年度交付量连续 4 年翻倍，成为全球首家且唯一实 现全年盈利的上市激光雷达企业，也是全球首家全年经营和净现金流为正的 上市激光雷达企业。公司在 2024 年实现全年营收 20.8 亿元，其中第四季度 营收 7.2 亿元。全年激光雷达总交付量为 501,889 台，同比增长 126.0%；其 中第四季度交付量达 222,054 台，同比大幅增长 153.1%。公司在 Q4 斩获至 今为止海外前装量产激光雷达领域规模最大的订单，与一家欧洲顶级主机厂 达成了多年独家定点合作，覆盖其燃油车和新能源汽车的多 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 中美对弈升级,聚焦贸易和科技 事件:年初至今特朗普宣布对中国商品征收两轮 10%的关税,中国迅速从关 税、出口管制、法律诉讼等方面进行反击。中美对弈升级,或从贸易摩擦扩 散至科技竞争。 贸易摩擦:风险犹在但可控。特朗普开启贸易摩擦的目的,提升美国内部供 应链安全,预防未来地缘突变导致的极端尾部风险。第二任期,特朗普政府 "制造业回流"的战略地位进一步提升,执行层面或加码,态度坚决,通过 维持各进口国的高关税或吸纳千亿级别的对美投资,构建美国制造业体系。 美对华关税或存在进一步提升空间,但考虑到对内减税和对外关税的关联度, 作者 分析师 汪毅 执业证书编号:S1070512120003 邮箱:yiw@cgws.com 分析师 简宇涵 执业证书编号:S1070524080001 邮箱:jianyuhan@cgws.com 相关研究 1、《政策支持+行业突破 -- 周度策略行业配置观点》 空间有限。 贸易摩擦:综合分析下,在高关税下,消费电子、轻工制造(家具、玩具) 受影响程度较大,而工程机械、白色家电受影响程度相对较小。如何分析 ...