行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 09 日 3000 亿特别国债支持以旧换新， 格力电器股东京海互联增持股份 看好 ——《2025/3/3-2025/3/7》家电周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ 数据观察：1 月白电内销下降，外销部分延续增长 A、空调出货端：内销略有下降，外销均延续高增。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 1 月空调行业实现产量 1667.20 万台，同比下降 4.20%；实现总销量 1773.40 万台， 同比上升 8.7%，其中内销 721.28 万台，同比下降 1.50%，出口 1052.12 万台，同比 上升 17.00%。分品牌出货端：空调总销量美的位列第一。根据产业在线披露，2025 年 1 月空调总销量市占率美的以 30.34%的市占率位列第一，格力、海尔、奥克斯、海 信市占率分别为 16.92%、10.66%、9.30%和 8.51%。 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch ...

建筑装饰 2025 年 03 月 09 日 经济增长目标强劲，投资有望成为核心助力 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250303-20250307） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-0.22%，沪深 300 指数 +1.39% ，相对收益为-1.61pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为家装 （+7.60%）、专业工程（+3.75%）、钢结构（+2.47%），对应行业内三个 公司：中天精装（ +11.77% ）、 海 南 华 铁 （ +28.43% ）、 鸿 路 钢 构 （+9.96%） ...

轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 《家居行业 2025 年度策略：家居板块政 策受益，Beta 和 Alpha 共振》 2024/12/18 证券分析师 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 重点提示：1）家居：政府工作报告继续表态支持楼市健康发展，地产有望逐步企稳，提 振板块估值；各省陆续出台以旧换新补贴方案；2025 年 Beta 和 Alpha 共振，基本面和 估值均迎来修复。2）消费：关注新消费需求绽放，推荐【百亚股份】【登康口腔】【潮 宏基】【布鲁可 ...

行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2025 年 03 月 09 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 张杰 A0230524050002 zhangjie@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 (8621)23297818× lichong@swsresearch.com 光伏转债密集下修，后续怎么看？ 看好 ——光伏转债点评 事件：近期光伏转债密集提议下修。隆 22 转债（正股：隆基绿能）于近日发布 "向下修正'隆 22 转债'转股价格暨转股停牌的公告"，下修接近到底。此 外，近期已分别有天 23、福 22、双良等多只光伏转债已下修转股价或提议下 修。我们认为公司可能借行业回暖（光伏板块反弹）来促进转股，缓解未来偿 债压力。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 转债下修通常可被视为转债从偏债向平衡偏股的切换。如若修正到底，亦可进一步视为 发行人基于未来经 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable sales growth during the peak season despite unfavorable conditions such as warmer winter temperatures and an earlier Spring Festival. The introduction of the new "Layered Change" series aims to meet diverse dressing needs [7] - The company has launched new functional outerwear for the spring season, which is anticipated to contribute to sales during the off-peak period. The marketing strategy includes collaboration with a celebrity to enhance product visibility [7] - The strategic investment in the luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles is expected to enhance the company's brand matrix and operational capabilities, allowing for better market positioning and expansion [7] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, reflecting confidence in its future development and commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% for FY22-FY24 [7] - The company has a strong market presence in the down jacket industry, with a robust operational capability and a focus on expanding into outdoor and functional apparel segments [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 16,774 million RMB - FY2024: 23,214 million RMB - FY2025E: 25,446 million RMB - FY2026E: 28,455 million RMB - FY2027E: 31,626 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 3% for FY2023, 38% for FY2024, and 10% for FY2025 [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 2,139 million RMB - FY2024: 3,074 million RMB - FY2025E: 3,448 million RMB - FY2026E: 3,923 million RMB - FY2027E: 4,426 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 4% for FY2023, 44% for FY2024, and 12% for FY2025 [6][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 37.75 billion, down 0.55% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell significantly by 37.6% to 3.86 billion [3][4]. - The company initiated its first interim dividend in 2024, distributing a total of 1.953 billion, which represents over 55% of the net profit for the year [3]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on expected growth in financing leasing and industrial operations [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023: Revenue 37.96 billion, Net Profit 6.19 billion - 2024: Revenue 37.75 billion, Net Profit 3.86 billion - 2025E: Revenue 40.91 billion, Net Profit 4.26 billion - 2026E: Revenue 44.33 billion, Net Profit 4.77 billion - 2027E: Revenue 47.65 billion, Net Profit 5.48 billion [4][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 7.80%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segments Performance - The financing leasing segment generated interest income of 21.18 billion in 2024, accounting for 56% of total revenue, while the industrial operations segment contributed 16.18 billion, representing 42.7% of total revenue [9]. - The company’s equipment operation segment has a strong market position, ranking among the top three globally, with significant international expansion efforts yielding a 27-fold increase in overseas revenue [9]. - The hospital operation segment improved its net profit to 0.232 billion, a 34.6% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin recovery to 19.97% [9]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 7.80 per share, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current closing price of 6.18 [9]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for comparable companies is 0.65, which has been used to derive the target price [9].

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 03 月 08 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——存量市场王者，居住成长新星 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 64.50 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8914.03 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 73.50/32.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,336.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,477.71 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0839 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 贝壳简介：创业垂统、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.33 billion yuan, up 63.1% [7] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, with projected net profit of 4.31 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.5% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in the energy drink sector and developing a second growth curve with its "Brewed Water" product line [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 11.26 billion yuan - 2024: 15.84 billion yuan - 2025E: 20.43 billion yuan - 2026E: 25.28 billion yuan - 2027E: 30.93 billion yuan - The year-on-year growth rates are 32.4%, 40.6%, 29.0%, 23.7%, and 22.3% respectively [6][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 2.04 billion yuan - 2024: 3.33 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.31 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.46 billion yuan - 2027E: 6.73 billion yuan - The year-on-year growth rates are 41.6%, 63.1%, 29.5%, 26.6%, and 23.3% respectively [6][9] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly, reaching 45.1% in 2025 [6] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 228.95 yuan on March 7, 2025, with a market capitalization of 119.06 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 28, 22, and 18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

上 市 公 司 电力设备 2025 年 03 月 08 日 中国动力 (600482) ——船周期高景气向上传导，从制造到维保有望开辟第二 成长曲线 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 21.60 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 28.51/18.01 | | 市净率 | 1.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.64 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 48,660 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,372.55/10,843.73 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 17.10 | | 资产负债率% | 53.43 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,253/2,253 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 03-07 04-07 05-07 06-07 07-07 08-07 09-07 10-07 11-07 12-07 ...

行 业 及 产 业 计算机 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《云计算复盘与 AI 展望！持续看好！ — —计算机行业周报 20250224- 20250228》 2025/03/01 《一体机快速风靡！Grok-3 争议与启示！ ——计算机行业周报 20250217- 20250221》 2025/02/22 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 胡雪飞 A0230522120002 huxf@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 徐平平 A0230123060004 xupp@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230123040004 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230123090010 chenqh@swsresearch.com 联系人 ...