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智联汽车系列深度之40:智驾芯片新范式:DSA+驾舱融合+RISC-V
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:39
Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to the industry and its developments [4] Core Insights - The high-level intelligent driving technology is becoming more accessible by 2025, with an upward trend in the industry chain's prosperity driven by mature supply-side technologies and demand-side strategies [3][9] - The new paradigm of computing power in vehicles includes DSA heterogeneous integration, cockpit fusion, and RISC-V architecture, which enhances algorithm optimization and cost efficiency [3][10][17] - Domestic alternatives are emerging with quality supply, and there is potential for technology to go abroad, especially in the mid-to-high-end NOA segment [3][24][26] - The trend of integrated hardware and software is leading to competitive intersections among various players, with traditional manufacturers and new forces both investing in self-research and collaboration [3][27] - The economic analysis of self-research in intelligent driving indicates an annual cost of approximately 2 billion RMB, with significant investments in SoC and algorithms [3][28] Summary by Sections 1. New Paradigm of Computing Power - The supply side is seeing advancements in intelligent driving hardware and software, with improved cost-performance ratios [3][9] - The demand side is influenced by traditional manufacturers promoting lower price points for intelligent driving features [3][9] - The architecture is evolving towards a more integrated approach, moving from multi-box systems to single-chip solutions [3][14] 2. Domestic Alternatives and Technology Export - The domestic market is seeing a growing presence of local suppliers in the mid-to-high-end NOA segment, with companies like Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame emerging as key players [3][26] - The low-end segment remains dominated by foreign companies, but domestic technologies are expected to expand internationally [3][26] 3. Competitive Landscape and Self-Research - Leading companies are enhancing their capabilities by integrating computing power, toolchains, and algorithms [3][28] - The competition is intensifying as companies like Huawei and Tesla are investing heavily in self-research and development of their own chips and algorithms [3][27] - The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach to self-research, with significant financial commitments required to maintain competitiveness [3][28] 4. Company Analysis - Companies like NVIDIA and Huawei are leading in hardware performance and ecosystem development, while also seeking to strengthen their algorithm capabilities [3][32][39] - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leader in providing integrated intelligent driving solutions, with a focus on software and service revenue [3][51]
化妆品医美行业周报:毛戈平入通在即,“三八”促销吹响美护复苏号角
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:38
行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 03 月 09 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 毛戈平入通在即,"三八"促销吹响美护复苏号角 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20250309 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共12页 简单金融 成就梦想 - ⚫ 本周化妆品医美板块涨后回调,表现弱于市场。2025 年 2 月 28 日至 2025 年 3 月 7 日期间,申万美容护理指数上涨 2.1%,弱于申万 A 指数 0.4pct。其中,申万化妆品指 数上涨 2.0%,弱于申万 A 指数 0.5pct;申万个护用品指数上涨 3.6%,强于 ...
金属&新材料行业周报:铜铝去库拐点早于往年,看好春旺行情
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:38
证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 03 月 09 日 铜铝去库拐点早于往年,看好春旺 行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250303-20250307 证 券 研 究 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾:据 ifind,环比上周 1)上证指数上涨 1.56%,深证成指上涨 2.19%,沪 深 300 上涨 1.39%,有色金属(申万)指数上涨 7.08%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 5.69 个百 ...
2025年春季汽车行业投资策略:内需与Ai共振,智能化商业变现贡献估值弹性
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:38
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by domestic demand and advancements in AI technology [1][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a strong performance, with the index rising 13.1% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.6 percentage points [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "smart driving" era, predicting a substantial increase in the penetration of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) in the market [6][57]. - The report forecasts that the total sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 28.74 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% [40][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [6][13]. - The report notes a slight decrease in fund holdings in the automotive sector, with a total holding of 3.88% as of Q4 2024 [18]. - Passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 27.55 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.91% [19][20]. Complete Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to activate market demand, potentially adding over 2 million units in 2025 [28][31]. - The report highlights that the market is shifting towards models priced below 150,000 yuan, with increased subsidies expected to drive growth in this segment [31][36]. - The introduction of high-level intelligent configurations in vehicles priced above 100,000 yuan is anticipated to influence consumer purchasing decisions significantly [48][49]. Components - The report identifies a significant increase in the demand for components related to smart driving, such as cameras and advanced driving chips [6][72]. - The trend of "smart driving equity" is expected to lead to a notable increase in the use of sensors and components in vehicles [6][72]. - Key players in the component sector, such as Desay SV and BYD Electronics, are highlighted as beneficiaries of this trend [6][72].
2025年春季金属行业投资策略:乘风破浪正当时
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:37
证 券 研 究 报 告 乘风破浪正当时 2025年春季金属行业投资策略 投资案件 ◼ 宏观环境:降息周期延续,国内稳增长预期明确,全球PMI回升。 2025年春季策略: 风险提示:宏观经济不及预期、新产能投放超预期、电动车产销低预期 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 1)贵金属:美元信用削弱/财政赤字上升,央行购金持续,叠加降息后实际利率下行带动ETF持 仓提升,预计金价中枢继续抬升(建议关注山东黄金、山金国际、招金矿业、中金黄金、盛达资 源、株冶集团)。 2)基本金属:去库提前,需求韧性,铝产能接近天花板,新能源+电网需求增长对冲地产需求下 滑,氧化铝持续下行,电解铝端盈利修复(建议关注中国铝业、中国宏桥、天山铝业、神火股份、 云铝股份、南山铝业、索通发展);铜供给短缺逻辑持续演绎,降息后需求复苏看好价格长牛 (建议关注紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、中矿资源、铜陵有色、西部矿业、河钢资源)。 3)能源金属:周期底部积极变化持续出现,锂高成本产能逐步出清;钴供给显著收缩、需求稳步 恢复;镍成本支撑明确、供应扰动加剧(建议关注华友钴业、中国稀土、广晟有色、锡业股份、 湖南黄金) 4)新材料 ...
AI硬件深度之一暨GenAI系列深度之五十:AI推动国产算力,先进制程版图重塑
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:37
证 券 研 究 报 告 AI推动国产算力,先进制程版图重塑 AI硬件深度之一暨GenAI系列深度之五十 证券分析师: 袁航 A0230521100002 杨海晏 A0230518070003 李天奇 A0230522080001 杨紫璇 A0230524070005 研究支持:袁航 A0230521100002 2025.3.9 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 应用需求激增,国产算力产业链迎来重大机遇。2025年初DeepSeek煽动翅膀,国内云厂商资本支出 有望重回高增,AIDC需求爆发在即。算力芯片、存储、电源等环节有望成为AIDC基建受益第一环, 其中国产训推GPU阵营已在打造全球算力第二极。 ◼ 先进制程突破将重塑全球半导体版图,自主可控背景下有望实现追赶。先进制程方面中国大陆率先取 得进展,2023年份额为8%,虽然近年高阶制程主要为TSMC、Samsung、Intel等推动,但以SMIC 和HHGrace为代表的中系晶圆厂也在拉近节点;CoWoS、SoIC等2.5D/3D先进封装产业化正在国内 加速推进,OSAT厂商开始逐季释放产能;随着存储技术节点突破,2 ...
京东物流:Q4收入增速重回双位数,规模效益进入兑现期-20250309
申万宏源· 2025-03-09 14:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][6] Core Views - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, with Q4 revenue growth returning to double digits at 10.4% [6][7] - The revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to improved efficiency and the implementation of new policies and promotional activities [6][7] - The company achieved a significant increase in adjusted net profit, reaching 7.917 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 186.8% [6][7] - The report highlights the company's focus on balancing revenue and profit growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.3% in 2024 [6][7] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits of 8.469 billion yuan and 9.373 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a focus on revenue growth and investment [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 166,625 - 2024: 182,838 - 2025E: 207,654 - 2026E: 232,112 - 2027E: 255,738 [3][7] - Adjusted net profit (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 2,761 - 2024: 7,917 - 2025E: 8,469 - 2026E: 9,373 - 2027E: 10,796 [3][7] - Earnings per share (in yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 0.13 - 2024: 0.42 - 2025E: 1.19 - 2026E: 1.27 - 2027E: 1.41 [3][7] Market Data - Closing price as of March 7, 2025: 13.20 HKD - Market capitalization: 87.699 billion HKD [4][6] - 52-week high/low: 16.84/7.46 HKD [4][6]
交运行业一周天地汇:二手船价企稳,OPEC增产,船舶航运配置性价比提升
申万宏源· 2025-03-09 14:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the improved cost-effectiveness of shipping vessel configurations and the stabilization of second-hand ship prices [4][22]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing instability in global supply chains, which has led to a rebound in second-hand ship prices and a rise in shipping vessel configuration cost-effectiveness. It also notes that OPEC's decision to increase oil production could enhance VLCC demand growth forecasts [5][22]. - The dry bulk freight rates have continued to rebound, while oil tanker rates have shown signs of bottoming out. The second-hand ship price index has stabilized since mid-February, providing further support for new ship prices [5][22]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and others, while also highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies like China Power and Singapore Yangtze River [5][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 0.15%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.24 percentage points. Among the sub-sectors, road freight saw the highest increase of 6.53%, while the highway sector experienced the largest decline of -2.56% [6][13]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index rose by 3.72%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 5.21% [6][36]. 2. Shipping and Shipbuilding - The report highlights the stabilization of second-hand ship prices and the potential for increased demand for VLCCs due to OPEC's production increase. It forecasts a potential annual increase of over 5% in oil tanker demand for 2025-2026 [22][29]. - The report provides specific data on VLCC rates, noting a 2% decrease to $34,146 per day, with varying performance across different routes [22][24]. 3. Freight Rates - The BDI index rose significantly by 14% to 1,400 points, driven by a surge in large vessel rates. The BCI-5TC index increased by 33% to $20,084 per day [26]. - The report also notes fluctuations in container shipping rates, with the SCFI index recording a drop of 5.2% to 1,436.30 points [27][36]. 4. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including specific companies with notable dividend rates and expected profit growth for 2024 and 2025 [18][20]. 5. Market Trends - The report discusses the ongoing recovery in logistics and freight demand, particularly in the context of domestic air travel and express delivery services, with expectations of significant growth in e-commerce logistics by 2025 [5][22].
人形机器人行业点评报告:智元发布重大更新预告,携手多方开启商业化进程
申万宏源· 2025-03-09 14:31
Investment Rating - The report rates the humanoid robot industry as "Positive" [4][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Zhiyuan Robotics is a leading player in the domestic humanoid robot sector, with a strong team and rapid development since its establishment in February 2023 [4][5]. - The company has launched its first humanoid robot, "Yuan Zheng A1," and has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Shanghai Lingang Economic Development Group [4][5]. - Zhiyuan's product lines include the "Yuan Zheng" and "Lingxi" series, featuring five models designed for various applications, including flexible manufacturing and service scenarios [6][7]. - The company is advancing in ecological cooperation and mass production, having announced the rollout of its 1,000th general-purpose embodied robot, with expectations for increased shipments in 2025 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhiyuan Robotics was founded in February 2023 and has quickly established itself in the humanoid robot market, with a founding team that includes industry veterans [4][5]. - The company has developed a range of humanoid robots, including the "Yuan Zheng A2," "Yuan Zheng A2-W," and "Yuan Zheng A2-Max," each with unique capabilities tailored for different operational environments [6]. Product Details - The "Yuan Zheng A2" is a bipedal humanoid robot with over 40 degrees of freedom, designed for customer service and marketing roles [6]. - The "Lingxi X1" is a small humanoid robot with a modular design, suitable for service applications and fully open-source in both hardware and software [7]. Strategic Partnerships - Zhiyuan has formed strategic partnerships with several notable companies, including Baidu Intelligent Cloud and Keda Xunfei, to enhance its product offerings and market reach [10][11]. - The company has also established collaborations for specific components and technology development, ensuring a robust supply chain and innovation pipeline [11]. Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with Zhiyuan's products already being utilized in various sectors such as interactive services, flexible manufacturing, and education [10]. - The report anticipates that Zhiyuan's shipment volume will further increase in 2025, driven by its strategic partnerships and product advancements [10].
纺织服装行业周报:品牌服饰基本面稳中向好,港股运动率先反弹
申万宏源· 2025-03-09 14:30
业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2025 年 03 月 09 日 品牌服饰基本面稳中向好,港股运动率先反弹 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20250309 相关研究 《消费有望迎来复苏窗口,关注品牌服饰 投 资 机 会 — — 纺 织 服 装 行 业 周 报 20250302》 2025/03/02 《纺织新材料获人型机器人产业验证,新 质生产力日益涌现——纺织服装行业周报 20250223》 2025/02/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 究 报 告 ⚫ 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。2 月 28-3 月 7 日,SW 纺织服饰指数上涨 1.4%,跑 输 SW 全 A 指数 1.0p ...