Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights that the actual impact of tariff increases will gradually become evident, with significant concerns regarding the overall tariff rate and its effects on exports and economic growth [1][9][14] - Four scenarios of tariff increases were analyzed, resulting in overall tariff rates of approximately 33.4%, 53.0%, 81.9%, and 105.6% respectively [1][14][18] - The estimated impact on China's overall exports under these scenarios is projected to be a decline of 8.7%, 11.7%, 12.7%, and 12.7%, with actual drag expected to be around 7%-10% when considering potential new transshipment trade and overseas factories [2][16][18] Group 2: Economic Growth Impact - The report estimates that the GDP drag from the four tariff scenarios will be approximately 1.2%, 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.7%, with actual impacts potentially ranging from 1% to 1.4% when accounting for mitigating factors [2][16][18] - The analysis indicates that the household appliances and light manufacturing sectors will face the most significant pressure, followed by electronics, beauty care, power equipment, machinery, basic chemicals, automotive, textiles, and non-ferrous metals [2][17][18] Group 3: Monthly Market Review - The report notes that in April, global risk appetite experienced significant fluctuations due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a sharp decline in stock and bond markets, followed by a gradual recovery [3][19] - A-shares showed a "√" shaped recovery pattern, although most indices ended the month lower, with domestic demand and dividend stocks performing relatively better [3][19][20] Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a continuation of the volatile market pattern, influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts [4][5] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policy-driven sectors like domestic consumption and real estate [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the multi-category discount retail format, with "零食有鸣" leading the way in this transformation. The company has established over 4,000 stores by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in the number of stores opening in 2025 [1][3] - The discount retail format is seen as a response to insufficient overall demand and excess supply, similar to trends observed in the retail markets of the US and Japan. This format is expected to capture a significant market share [20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Development - "零食有鸣" has pioneered the multi-category discount retail format, opening its first store in Chengdu in 2021 and expanding to over 4,000 stores by the end of 2024. The company opened 189 new stores during the 2024 National Day holiday, surpassing 1,500 stores by April 2025 [1][11] - The company focuses on community-based locations, targeting local residents and students, which positions it well against traditional small supermarkets [12] Section 2: Product Categories and Pricing - The product mix includes snacks, beverages, daily necessities, and seasonings, with snacks occupying approximately 50% of shelf space. The pricing strategy emphasizes value, with many products priced at 70-80% of nearby supermarkets and online platforms [2][16] - The high proportion of private label products in the daily necessities category is expected to enhance profitability and meet diverse community needs [16][19] Section 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The report indicates that the category adjustments are minimal, allowing for easier operational scalability. The company is expected to establish direct partnerships with suppliers as it continues to expand its store network [3][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency, which is crucial for the success of the discount retail model, particularly in the early stages of multi-category expansion [20]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一） 一、业绩增长：A 股盈利回升转正，净利率是主要驱动 1.1 业绩增长：A 股盈利 24Q4 进一步下探、25Q1 回升转正 ——全 A/全 A 非金融业绩增速 2024 年四季度进一步下探，2025 年一 季度回升转正。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 归母净利润同比分别为 3.58%/4.28%，环比分别变动 5.94/17.26pct；全 A/全 A 非金融 24Q4 归 母净利润同比分别为-2.36%/-12.99%，环比分别变动-2.30/-5.75pct。 ——上市板看，主板业绩保持韧性、创业板业绩弹性较强；宽基指数看， 大盘业绩增速小幅回落，中小盘盈利明显修复；行业风格看，科技 TMT、 可选消费、中游制造业绩占优，中游制造、科技 TMT、上游资源增速改善。 1.2 营收增长：A 股营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增 ——全 A/全 A 非金融营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 营业收入同比分别为-0 ...

风险提示：行业需求不及预期、原材料价格波动风险、行业价格战风险。 增持（维持） 汽车 特斯拉及新势力：小鹏零跑新车亮眼，车企加码智驾与机器人 特斯拉：行业竞争激烈，汽车销量承压影响业绩。2024 年至今，全球新能 源市场整体向好，国内受益政策补贴、新车型持续增加，自主新车数量多 且定价激进，国内新能源车增长势头较强，欧洲市场在碳排法规推动下有 改善的趋势，美国电动化进程持续推进，特斯拉近期仅推出 modely 焕新 版，且调价力度弱于自主品牌，销量承受压力，2024&2025q1，特斯拉交 付 179/34 万辆，同比-1.1%/-13%，其中国内 65.7/17.28 万辆，同比+9%/- 21.8%。受降价促销影响，2024&2025Q1asp 为 4.2/4 万美元，同降 7%/8%；收入 977/193 亿美元，同比+1%/-9%，毛利率 17.9%/16.3%， 净利率 8.1%/4.8%，单车盈利 0.46/0.29 万美元，同降 27%/29%。展望 2025 年，焕新版 model Y 已开启密集交付，后续有计划推出经济型小车 及 cybercab 等，有望带动销量提升。 新势力：小鹏、零跑新 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the automotive sector [4] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, with Tesla's sales under pressure impacting its performance. However, the global new energy market is showing overall improvement, particularly in China due to policy subsidies and the introduction of new models [1][9][12] - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are launching multiple new models targeting the 100,000 to 300,000 yuan market, leading to significant sales growth and improved profitability [2][28] - The trend towards intelligent driving and robotics is accelerating, with companies like Tesla and Xpeng making significant advancements in autonomous driving technology and robot production [3][26] Summary by Sections Tesla - Tesla's sales are under pressure, with Q1 2024 deliveries expected to be 179,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while domestic deliveries are projected at 65,700 units, an increase of 9% [1][9] - The average selling price (ASP) for Q1 2024 is expected to be $42,000, down 7% year-on-year, with revenue projected at $97.7 billion, a slight increase of 1% [10][12] - The company is focusing on the launch of the refreshed Model Y and plans to introduce more affordable models, which may help boost sales in 2025 [10][12] New Entrants - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are seeing substantial sales growth, with 2024 sales projections of 50,100 for Li Auto, 29,400 for Leap Motor, and 19,000 for Xpeng, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 104%, and 34% respectively [2][30] - The profitability of these new entrants is improving due to economies of scale and cost reductions in the supply chain, with Xpeng reducing losses and Leap Motor achieving positive financial results [2][30] Intelligent Driving and Robotics - By April 2025, Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to be implemented in millions of vehicles, with significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities [3][26] - Companies are increasingly investing in robotics, with Tesla planning to produce 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to integrating robotics with automotive technology [3][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the new vehicle cycle and emphasizes the potential of companies like Xpeng, Leap Motor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Tesla for investment opportunities [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.4 billion yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.79 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [1]. - The adjustment in revenue recognition method and ongoing data center renovations have temporarily pressured the company's performance, but the long-term growth logic remains intact [2][3]. - The company is focusing on core business areas, particularly the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) segment, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [1]. - The AIDC business revenue for the year was 1.45 billion yuan, showing a growth of 21% year-on-year, while IDC business revenue was 2.9 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [2]. Business Strategy - The company is undergoing significant renovations of old data centers, which is expected to enhance capacity and efficiency, with billing power exceeding 90% of pre-renovation levels by March 2025 [3]. - The focus is shifting towards the construction of new-generation intelligent computing centers, with major projects set to be delivered in 2025 [3]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a strong competitive edge due to its substantial energy resource reserves, which increased by 130% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.3 billion, 7.9 billion, and 9.6 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 2.68 billion, 3.30 billion, and 3.99 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.4 billion yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.79 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [1]. - The adjustment in revenue recognition method and ongoing data center renovations have temporarily pressured the company's performance, but the long-term growth logic remains intact [2][3]. - The company is focusing on core business areas, particularly the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) segment, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [1]. - The AIDC business revenue for the year was 1.45 billion yuan, showing a growth of 21% year-on-year, while IDC business revenue decreased by 8% to 2.9 billion yuan [2]. Business Strategy - The company is undergoing significant renovations of old data centers, which is expected to enhance capacity and efficiency, with billing power exceeding 90% of pre-renovation levels by March 2025 [3]. - The focus is shifting towards the construction of new-generation intelligent computing centers, with major projects set to be delivered in 2025 [3]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a strong competitive edge due to its substantial energy resource reserves, which increased by 130% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.3 billion, 7.9 billion, and 9.6 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 2.68 billion, 3.30 billion, and 3.99 billion yuan [4].

市场短期补涨后或有回档 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 量化周报 市场短期补涨后或有回档。节前（4.28-4.30），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.49%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。 节日期间，海外及港股市场均出现了不同程度的上涨，我们认为受此影响， A 股市场短期或将出现补涨，当下我们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市 场的底部区间已然探明，市场补涨完成后将会选择方向，我们仍倾向于市 场再次回档，具体原因如下：1、本轮回调从高点到低点指数调整幅度均已 超过 10%，有些指数甚至超过 20%，调整幅度基本充分；2、大部分规模 指数的日线级别下跌只走了 1 浪结构，时间和结构不够充分；3、28 个中 信一级行业中，仍有 8 个行业处于日线级别上涨中，而处于日线下跌的 20 个行业中，9 个行业日线下跌只走了 1 浪结构，结构不够充分。中期来看， 上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚 开始；此外，已有 21 个行业 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued oscillating market pattern influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts, with a focus on the importance of policy effectiveness in driving market momentum [1][9][10] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering sectors related to domestic consumption and real estate as policy support emerges [2][10] Group 2 - The report recommends specific stocks, including New Steel Co., which is expected to benefit from external empowerment and high-end product structure, projecting significant profit recovery [3][11] - Zhongyan Dadi is highlighted for its competitive edge in geotechnical engineering, particularly in new infrastructure projects, with expected profit growth driven by nuclear power and water conservancy projects [13][14] - Yinlong Co. is noted for its rapid increase in market share and profitability in the prestressed steel and track slab sectors, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 30% in profits [17][18] - Daikin Heavy Industries is recognized for its strong performance in the offshore wind sector, with significant revenue growth from exports and a focus on new energy projects [19][20] - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to leverage its integrated layout for cost advantages, with projected net profits of 4.8 billion to 6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [22][25] - New Yisheng is projected to see continued growth driven by the demand for 800G products, with net profits expected to reach 6.89 billion to 12.02 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [26][27] - Shanxi Fenjiu is anticipated to maintain stable growth in revenue and profits, with a focus on high-end product lines [29][31] - Yanjing Beer is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and strong performance of its flagship product U8, with projected net profits increasing significantly [33][34] - Bairun Co. is positioned for accelerated growth due to its whisky product line and pre-mixed drinks, with net profits expected to rise from 860 million to 1.12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [35][36] - Huhua Co. is projected to experience significant growth driven by the booming civil explosives industry and expansion into new markets [37][38] - Weir Shares is noted for achieving record revenue in Q1 2025, driven by the acceleration of automotive intelligence and high-end smartphone products [40]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing Radar Six-Dimensional Framework **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional perspective, incorporating liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical signals, and crowding dimensions. These are aggregated into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] **Model Construction Process**: The model selects 21 indicators across the six dimensions and aggregates them into the four categories mentioned above. Each category is scored based on its respective indicators, and the final composite score is calculated as the weighted average of these categories[1][6][8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to market timing by integrating multiple dimensions, offering a balanced view of market conditions[1][6][8] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Monetary Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor assesses the direction of monetary policy by analyzing changes in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days[10] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days - If the factor value > 0, monetary policy is deemed accommodative; if < 0, it is deemed restrictive[10] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the directional stance of monetary policy, providing insights into liquidity conditions[10] - **Factor Name**: Monetary Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, this factor measures the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates[13] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation as DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 - Smooth and standardize the deviation using z-scores - Assign scores based on thresholds: <-1.5 SD indicates accommodative conditions (score = 1), >1.5 SD indicates restrictive conditions (score = -1)[13] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a quantitative measure of short-term liquidity conditions relative to policy rates[13] - **Factor Name**: Credit Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the transmission of credit from banks to the real economy using medium- and long-term loan data[14] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the monthly value of medium- and long-term loans - Compute the 12-month incremental change and its year-over-year growth - Compare the factor value to its level three months ago: an increase indicates a positive signal (score = 1), while a decrease indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[14] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the directional flow of credit, reflecting economic support from the banking sector[14] - **Factor Name**: Credit Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[18] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation of new RMB loans from their median forecast, normalized by the forecast's standard deviation - Assign scores based on thresholds: >1.5 SD indicates a positive surprise (score = 1), <-1.5 SD indicates a negative surprise (score = -1)[18] **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the strength of credit data relative to expectations, offering insights into market surprises[18] - **Factor Name**: Growth Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data, this factor evaluates the trend in economic growth over the past 12 months[20] **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute the 12-month moving average of PMI data (including manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices) - Calculate the year-over-year change and compare it to its level three months ago: an upward trend indicates a positive signal (score = 1), while a downward trend indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[20] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the directional trend in economic growth, providing a macroeconomic perspective[20] - **Factor Name**: Growth Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[22] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation of PMI data from its median forecast, normalized by the forecast's standard deviation - Assign scores based on thresholds: >1.5 SD indicates a positive surprise (score = 1), <-1.5 SD indicates a negative surprise (score = -1)[22] **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the strength of economic growth data relative to expectations, offering insights into market surprises[22] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the trend in inflation levels, which influence monetary policy constraints[25] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the weighted average of smoothed CPI and raw PPI year-over-year changes - Compare the factor value to its level three months ago: a downward trend indicates a positive signal (score = 1), while an upward trend indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[25] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into inflationary trends and their potential impact on monetary policy[25] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[26] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation of CPI and PPI data from their median forecasts, normalized by the forecast's standard deviation - Compute the average of these deviations to form the factor value - Assign scores based on thresholds: <-1.5 indicates a positive signal (score = 1), >1.5 indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[26] **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the strength of inflation data relative to expectations, offering insights into market surprises[26] Factor Backtesting Results - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Current score = -1[10] - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Current score = -1[13] - **Credit Direction Factor**: Current score = -1[14] - **Credit Strength Factor**: Current score = 1[18] - **Growth Direction Factor**: Current score = 1[20] - **Growth Strength Factor**: Current score = 0[22] - **Inflation Direction Factor**: Current score = 1[25] - **Inflation Strength Factor**: Current score = 1[26]