1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of fixed - income fundamentals from November 10th to November 16th, 2025. The overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, with changes in various sub - indices such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing. For example, the industrial production high - frequency index shows a narrowing increase, the real estate sales high - frequency index has a stable decline, and the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has an expanding increase [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.7 points (previous value: 128.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 4.1% (previous value: 4.4%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The electric furnace and PX operating rates increase. The electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 59.6%), and the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.9%) [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 41.5, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline remains unchanged. The transaction land premium rate drops. The 100 - large - city transaction land premium rate is 1.4% (previous value: 3.6%) [1][9][28]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.5, with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous value: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt continues to decline, with a current operating rate of 29.0% (previous value: 29.7%) [1][9][42]. 3.5 Export - The high - frequency index of exports is 143.6, with a week - on - week increase of 0.9 points (previous value: 1.0 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The container freight rate index rises continuously. The CCFI index is 1094.0 points (previous value: 1058.2 points) [1][9][44]. 3.6 Consumption - The high - frequency index of consumption is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 3.5 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The average daily box office of movies rises, reaching 54410,000 yuan (previous value: 29640,000 yuan) [1][9][54]. 3.7 CPI - The monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The price of white - striped chickens rises slightly, with an average wholesale price of 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg) [1][9][60]. 3.8 PPI - The monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot prices of coal and copper rise slightly. The ex - warehouse price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port is 832 yuan/ton (previous value: 798 yuan/ton), and the LME copper spot settlement price is 10841 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10704 US dollars/ton) [1][9][62]. 3.9 Transportation - The high - frequency index of transportation is 132.6, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 points (previous value: 10.4 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The highway logistics freight rate index rises slightly, reaching 1051 points (previous value: 1050 points) [2][10][74]. 3.10 Inventory - The high - frequency index of inventory is 163.0, with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points (previous value: 8.0 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The inventory scale of electrolytic aluminum and soda ash increases. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 122,000 tons (previous value: 116,000 tons), and the soda ash inventory is 1,707,000 tons (previous value: 1,703,000 tons) [2][10][82]. 3.11 Financing - The high - frequency index of financing is 242.2, with a week - on - week increase of 30.5 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The net financing of local bonds turns from negative to positive, with a net financing of 242.8 billion yuan (previous value: - 36 billion yuan) [2][10][93].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the electric equipment industry [4] Core Insights - Continuous technological breakthroughs in perovskite solar cells have led to significant improvements in efficiency and stability, with laboratory results showing a lifespan increase to over three times that of traditional solutions and maintaining a high efficiency of 26.2% [1] - The industrialization process of perovskite technology is accelerating, with several companies achieving GW-level production capacity, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for mass production [2] - Clear policy support is evident, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promoting advanced photovoltaic technologies, indicating a broad and promising industry outlook [3] Summary by Sections Technological Advancements - Perovskite solar cells have achieved notable efficiency improvements, with a record efficiency of over 30% for all-perovskite tandem cells and significant advancements in commercial applications [1] Industrialization Progress - The perovskite photovoltaic industry in China is entering a critical phase, with major companies launching GW-level production lines and achieving stable operational efficiencies [2] Policy Support and Market Potential - Government policies are favoring the development of perovskite technologies, with applications extending into space and emerging sectors like construction and automotive, indicating a robust market potential [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on equipment manufacturers and material suppliers that are poised to benefit from the growth of the perovskite industry, including companies like Jiejiawei, Maiwei, and Jin Jing Technology [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: CCBA Pricing Model **Construction Idea**: The model adjusts convertible bond pricing based on redemption probability and market deviation metrics [6][21] **Construction Process**: - Define pricing deviation: $ \text{Pricing Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Price}}{\text{CCBA Model Pricing}} - 1 $ - Adjust for redemption probability to form the CCB_out model - Select convertible bonds with the lowest deviation across three domains: debt-heavy, balanced, and equity-heavy, forming a pool of 45 convertible bonds [6][21] **Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong stability and consistent returns, even during volatile market conditions [21] - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond & Equity Rotation Strategy **Construction Idea**: Utilize market pricing deviation to dynamically allocate between convertible bonds and a stock-bond portfolio [11][15] **Construction Process**: - Calculate Z-score: $ Z = \frac{\text{Pricing Deviation}}{\text{3-Year Standard Deviation}} $ - Apply truncation at ±1.5 standard deviations and normalize: $ \text{Score} = \frac{Z}{-1.5} $ - Determine convertible bond weight: $ \text{Convertible Bond Weight} = 50\% + 50\% \times \text{Score} $ - Allocate remaining weight to a stock-bond portfolio (50% 7-10Y Treasury + 50% CSI 1000 Total Return Index) [11][15] **Evaluation**: The strategy achieves stable excess returns by overweighting undervalued convertible bonds and underweighting overvalued ones [11][15] Model Backtesting Results - **CCBA Pricing Model**: - Absolute return: 21.3% - Excess return: 10.1% - IR: 1.71 [24] - **Convertible Bond & Equity Rotation Strategy**: - Absolute return: Stable excess returns observed during low valuation periods - Current convertible bond premium: 7.80% [11][15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation (CCB_out) **Construction Idea**: Measure deviation between market price and model price, adjusted for redemption probability [21][24] **Construction Process**: - Define deviation: $ \text{Pricing Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Price}}{\text{CCB_out Model Pricing}} - 1 $ - Adjust for redemption probability to refine the factor [21][24] **Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies undervalued convertible bonds, supporting stable returns [21][24] - **Factor Name**: Stock Momentum **Construction Idea**: Combine convertible bond pricing deviation with stock momentum to enhance strategy elasticity [27][28] **Construction Process**: - Calculate stock momentum scores based on past 1, 3, and 6 months' performance - Combine momentum scores with pricing deviation to form a composite factor [27][28] **Evaluation**: The factor increases strategy elasticity, achieving higher absolute and excess returns [27][28] - **Factor Name**: High Turnover **Construction Idea**: Select convertible bonds with high trading activity within a low-valuation pool [30][31] **Construction Process**: - Define turnover metrics: - Convertible bond turnover rate (5-day and 21-day) - Convertible bond-to-stock turnover ratio (5-day and 21-day) - Combine turnover metrics with pricing deviation to refine selection [30][31] **Evaluation**: The factor enhances strategy responsiveness, achieving consistent excess returns [30][31] Factor Backtesting Results - **Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation (CCB_out)**: - IR: 1.71 - Absolute return: 21.3% [24] - **Stock Momentum**: - IR: 2.31 - Absolute return: 25.0% [28] - **High Turnover**: - IR: 1.96 - Absolute return: 23.6% [31] Strategy Construction and Results - **Strategy Name**: Low Valuation Strategy **Construction Idea**: Select undervalued convertible bonds across three domains (debt-heavy, balanced, equity-heavy) [21][24] **Construction Process**: - Use CCB_out pricing deviation to identify undervalued convertible bonds - Form a pool of 45 convertible bonds with AA- rating or higher and balance above 3 billion [21][24] **Evaluation**: Stable returns with strong excess performance [21][24] - **Strategy Name**: Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combine pricing deviation with stock momentum for higher elasticity [27][28] **Construction Process**: - Integrate stock momentum scores (1, 3, 6 months) with pricing deviation - Select convertible bonds with the highest composite scores [27][28] **Evaluation**: Enhanced elasticity and higher returns [27][28] - **Strategy Name**: Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combine pricing deviation with turnover metrics for responsive selection [30][31] **Construction Process**: - Select convertible bonds with high turnover rates within a low-valuation pool - Combine turnover metrics with pricing deviation for refined selection [30][31] **Evaluation**: Consistent excess returns with improved responsiveness [30][31] - **Strategy Name**: Balanced Debt-Heavy Enhanced Strategy **Construction Idea**: Focus on undervalued convertible bonds while enhancing debt-heavy and balanced domains [33][34] **Construction Process**: - Use pricing deviation to select undervalued convertible bonds - Apply turnover and momentum factors for enhancement in debt-heavy and balanced domains [33][34] **Evaluation**: High absolute returns with controlled volatility and drawdowns [33][34] - **Strategy Name**: Credit Bond Substitution Strategy **Construction Idea**: Replace credit bonds with convertible bonds offering higher yields [35][36] **Construction Process**: - Select convertible bonds with $ \text{YTM} + 1\% > \text{3-Year AA Credit Bond YTM} $ - Apply stock momentum and volatility control for portfolio optimization [35][36] **Evaluation**: Stable returns with low volatility and drawdowns [35][36] - **Strategy Name**: Volatility Control Strategy **Construction Idea**: Control portfolio volatility by combining enhanced strategies and credit bonds [37][39] **Construction Process**: - Select convertible bonds with high scores in low valuation + strong momentum - Combine enhanced strategies with credit bonds to control portfolio volatility at 4% [37][39] **Evaluation**: Stable returns with controlled volatility and drawdowns [37][39] Strategy Backtesting Results - **Low Valuation Strategy**: - IR: 1.71 - Absolute return: 21.3% [24] - **Low Valuation + Strong Momentum Strategy**: - IR: 2.31 - Absolute return: 25.0% [28] - **Low Valuation + High Turnover Strategy**: - IR: 1.96 - Absolute return: 23.6% [31] - **Balanced Debt-Heavy Enhanced Strategy**: - Absolute return: 22.4% - Volatility: 12.2% - Drawdown: 13.9% [34] - **Credit Bond Substitution Strategy**: - Absolute return: 7.2% - Volatility: 2.1% - Drawdown: 2.8% [36] - **Volatility Control Strategy**: - Absolute return: 9.7% - Volatility: 4.4% - Drawdown: 4.4% [39]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the AIDC power management solutions and SST technology [8]. Core Insights - The data center industry is transitioning to higher power levels, with cabinet power increasing from an average of 8KW to over 30KW, and Nvidia's single cabinet power reaching 120KW. This shift necessitates new power supply architectures due to the limitations of traditional DC power distribution systems [1]. - Solid State Transformers (SST) are positioned as the ultimate solution for AIDC power management due to their high efficiency (up to 98%) and compact design, which can significantly reduce equipment count by approximately 40% [2][3]. - The 800V HVDC system is identified as a starting point for SST penetration, offering active flexibility and compatibility with green energy, which is crucial as new data centers in China are required to have over 80% green energy usage [3]. Summary by Sections AIDC Power Management - The cost of power-related equipment in typical AIDC projects accounts for nearly 50% of total costs, highlighting the importance of efficient power solutions [1]. - SST technology is expected to evolve towards gigawatt-level applications, with Delta's 800V SST system already reaching MW-level capacity [1]. SST Technology - SST replaces traditional transformers with high-frequency power electronics, achieving higher efficiency and smaller size, which is essential for modern data centers [2]. - The modular design of SST integrates multiple functions, reducing the need for various traditional devices [2]. Market Opportunities - Companies such as Sifang Co., China West Electric, Jinpan Technology, and Xinte Electric are highlighted as key players in the SST system and materials market, with significant advancements in efficiency and application [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.44% during the week of November 10-14, influenced by a pullback in the technology sector. The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector and the potential recovery of the film and television sector driven by new policies. There is also a focus on AI applications and IP monetization, particularly in areas like AI companionship, education, and toys [1][2][3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The media sector's performance was down by 1.44% in the week of November 10-14. The top-performing sectors were consumer services (up 4.81%), textiles and apparel (up 4.43%), and pharmaceuticals (up 3.29%). The worst-performing sectors included computers (down 3.72%), electronics (down 4.44%), and communications (down 4.90%) [9][11] 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Gaming**: Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Giant Network, Jibite, and others. - **Film and Television**: Focus on Mango Super Media, Huace Film & TV, and Huanrui Century. - **IP**: Companies like Chuangyuan Co., Shanghai Film, and Huali Technology are highlighted. - **AI**: Notable companies include Doushen Education, Shengtian Network, and others. - **Education**: Key players are Xueda Education, Fenbi, and Tianli International Holdings. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Attention on Alibaba, Tencent, Pop Mart, Kuaishou, and others [2][14] 3. Key Events Review - OpenAI released GPT-5.1, which includes two sub-models aimed at enhancing user interaction and emotional value. This model is expected to improve user experience significantly [16] - Apple announced a partnership with Tencent for the App Store mini-programs, reducing its commission to 15%, which is expected to boost the mini-program ecosystem significantly [3][16] - Baidu launched the Wenxin 5.0 model, supporting multimodal inputs and outputs, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [4][16] 4. Sub-sector Data Tracking - **Gaming**: Popular upcoming games include "Kung Fu Panda: Dragon Knight" and "Tom Cat Adventures 2" [17] - **Box Office**: The total box office for the week was 238 million yuan, with "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" leading at 120.88 million yuan [18][21] - **TV Series**: The top series during this period was "Tang Dynasty Ghost Stories" with a viewership index of 84.9 [22] 5. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for media companies, highlighting their market performance and projected earnings [15]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The economic situation in October showed a significant downturn, with external demand affected by base disturbances and a drop in export prices, leading to a substantial decline in export growth [4] - Domestic demand weakened due to a slowdown in real estate and infrastructure investment, alongside a decrease in consumer spending, indicating a dual weakness in production and demand [15] - The overall economic environment suggests a need for policy intervention to stabilize growth, with expectations for a GDP target of around 5% for 2026 [4][15] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The "Southbound Bond Connect" is expanding, allowing more non-bank institutions to participate in the bond market, which is expected to enhance investment opportunities in Hong Kong's bond market [16] - The bond market remains volatile, with limited changes in interest rates across various maturities, reflecting a cautious approach from institutional investors amid a weak economic backdrop [9][13] - The overall credit demand is weak, with new loans decreasing, indicating a continued trend of reduced financing activity [17] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent Holdings reported a revenue of 192.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, driven by strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments [20] - Electric Power Investment's acquisition of 100% equity in Baiyin Hua Coal Power is expected to enhance its profitability, with projected annual net profit increasing significantly post-acquisition [23][24] - Wangfujing's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.35 billion yuan, a decline of 4.73% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [27] Group 4: Industry Trends - The coal industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with Electric Power Investment expanding its integrated coal-electricity-aluminum business model through strategic acquisitions [23] - The advertising revenue for Tencent is expected to benefit from AI-driven enhancements, contributing significantly to its overall revenue growth [21] - The pharmaceutical sector shows promising growth in emerging business areas, with expectations for continued revenue increases in the coming years [28]

========= Content: --------- <doc id='1'>量化周报 科创 50 即将确认日线下跌，风格切换正在进行 科创 50 即将确认日线下跌，风格切换正在进行。本周（11.10-11.14）， 大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收跌 0.18%。在此背景下，汽车确认日线级 别下跌，农林牧渔、消费者服务迎来日线级别上涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30% 左右，各大指数和板块的上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别 上涨处于超涨状态，几乎所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复 杂的 9-17 浪的上涨结构，而食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车也已经形成 了日线级别下跌，军工、传媒也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。因此我 们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已临近尾声。此外，创业板、科创 50 自 6 月份以来的上涨短期内已基本见到顶部，科创 50 即将迎来日线级别下 跌，未来科技板块大概率会是震荡调整的态势，风格切换正在进行。中期 来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、 科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期 牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 19 个行业 周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局。中期对 于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。</doc> <doc id='2'>A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，A 股景气指数为 20.94， 相比 2023 年底上升 15.51，当前处于上升周期中。 A 股情绪指数观察。当前 A 股情绪见底指数信号：空，A 股情绪见顶指数 信号：空，综合信号为：空。 指数增强组合本周表现尚可。中证 500 增强组合跑赢基准 0.66%，沪深 300 增强组合跑输基准 0.58%。 风格上，当前残差波动率因子占优。从纯因子收益来看，本周保险、医药、 有色金属等行业因子相对市场市值加权组合跑出较高超额收益，计算机、 汽车等行业因子回撤较多；风格因子中，残差波动率因子超额收益较高， 市值呈较为显著的负向超额收益。从近期因子表现来看，高杠杆股表现优 异，市值、成长等因子表现不佳。 风险提示：量化周报观点全部基于历史统计与量化模型，存在历史规律与 量化模型失效的风险。</doc> <doc id='3'>作者 分析师 刘富兵 执业证书编号：S0680518030007 邮箱：liufubing@gszq.com 分析师 沈芷琦 执业证书编号：S0680521120005 邮箱：shenzhiqi@gszq.com 分析师 张国安 执业证书编号：S0680524060003 邮箱：zhangguoan@gszq.com 分析师 赵博文 执业证书编号：S0680524070004 邮箱：zhaobowen@gszq.com 分析师 汪宜生 执业证书编号：S0680525070003 邮箱：wangyisheng@gszq.com 研究助理 阮俊烨 执业证书编号：S0680124070019 邮箱：ruanjunye@gszq.com 相关研究 1、《量化分析报告：择时雷达六面图：本周基本面改善， 拥挤度下降》 2025-11-08 2、《量化分析报告：六周期框架下的多资产 ETF 配置》 2025-11-05 3、《量化点评报告：十一月配置建议：关注小盘+价值 的均衡配置》 2025-11-03</doc> <doc id='4'> | 1. 市场走势分析 4 | | | --- | --- | | 1.1 科创 即将迎来日线下跌，风格切换正在进行 50 4 | | | 1.2 创业板短期或已基本见顶 5 | | | 2. 市场行业分析 6 | | | 2.1 中期看多煤炭、房地产、石油石化、消费者服务 6 | | | 2.2 汽车确认日线下跌，农林牧渔、消费者服务迎来日线上涨 7 | | | 3. 市场景气与情绪观察 8 | | | 3.1 A 8 | 股景气指数观察 | | 3.2 A 股情绪指数观察 9 | | | 4. 情绪指标择时和主题投资机会 11 | | | 4.1 半导体概念股机会 11 | | | 4.2 中证 500 增强组合 11 | | | 4.3 沪深 300 增强组合 14 | | | 5. 市场风格分析 15 | | | 5.1 风格因子表现 15 | | | 5.2 市场主要指数收益风格归因 17 | | | 风险提示 18 | | | 附录： 19 | | | 指数分析及投资建议 19 | | | 行业分析及投资建议 19 | |</doc> <doc id='5'> | 图表 | 1： | 上证综指走势结构图 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2： | 上证 50 | 走势结构图 | 4 | | 图表 | 3： | 沪深 300 | 走势结构图 | 5 | | 图表 | 4： | 中证 500 | 走势结构图 | 5 | | 图表 | 5： | 中证 1000 | 走势结构图 | 5 | | 图表 | 6： | 深证成指走势结构图 | | 5 | | 图表 | 7： | 创业板指走势结构图 | | 6 | | 图表 | 8： | | 消费者服务中期走势结构图 | 6 | | 图表 | 9： | 煤炭中期走势结构图 | | 6 | | 图表 | 10： | | 石油石化中期走势结构图 | 7 | | 图表 | 11： | | 房地产中期走势结构图 | 7 | | 图表 | 12： | | 当前下行周期与历史平均趋势（横坐标： 持续天数） | 8 | | 图表 | 13： | A 股景气度指数 | | 9 | | 图表 | 14： | | 波动-成交情绪时钟收益统计（沪深 300） | 9 | | 图表 | 15： | A | 股情绪指数（见底预警指数） 10 | | | 图表 | 16： | A | 股情绪指数（见顶预警指数） 10 | | | 图表 | 17： | A | 股情绪指数系统择时表现 11 | | | 图表 | 18： | 半导体概念股 | 11 | | | 图表 | 19： | 中证 500 | 增强组合表现 12 | | | 图表 | 20： | 中证 500 | 增强组合持仓明细 12 | | | 图表 | 21： | 沪深 300 | 增强组合表现 14 | | | 图表 | 22： | 沪深 300 | 增强组合持仓明细 14 | | | 图表 | 23： | | 近一周十大类风格因子暴露相关性 16 | | | 图表 | 24： | | 近一周十大类风格纯因子收益率 16 | | | 图表 | 25： | | 近一周行业纯因子收益率 16 | | | 图

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market will continue to recover in a volatile manner, and the recovery may be smoother in the latter part of the fourth quarter. The 10-year Treasury bond yield (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [3][18]. - Financial "anti-involution" will affect asset supply and demand and interest rates in the future. It may lead to a slowdown in loan growth and a continuous decline in deposit rates, which will ease the pressure on banks' net interest margins [1][7]. - The decline in deposit rates will widen the space for interest rate cuts and increase the necessity for them. If banks shrink their balance sheets, the asset shortage may intensify [2][14]. Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Trends - This week, the bond market remained volatile, with limited changes in interest rates across various tenors. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields changed slightly by 0bps and -1.0bps to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively, while the 3-year and 5-year secondary capital bond yields decreased by 2.8bps and 2.7bps to 1.91% and 2.15% respectively [1][6]. - The bond market's volatility is due to the weakening fundamentals and loose funds supporting the bond market's strength, while the cautious behavior of banks and other institutional investors restricts the market's decline in the short term. As the end of the year approaches, banks' demand for bond allocation is expected to recover, driving interest rates down [1][6]. Impact of Financial "Anti-involution" - Bank "involution" competition is manifested in the rapid decline in loan interest rates and the slow decline in deposit interest rates, which compresses banks' net interest margins. Financial "anti-involution" aims to slow down the decline in loan interest rates and accelerate the decline in deposit interest rates [7]. - On the loan side, "anti-involution" may lead to a further decline in loan volume if the decline in loan interest rates is slowed or stopped. There is a possibility of a continuous slowdown in loan growth in the coming months [1][9]. - On the deposit side, deposit interest rates are expected to continue to decline in the future, which will ease the pressure on banks' net interest margins. It is estimated that the average deposit cost of listed banks will continue to decline by 13bps from mid-this year to mid-next year [1][11]. Impact on Interest Rate Policy - The decline in deposit rates will widen the space for the central bank to cut interest rates and increase the necessity for it. The probability of OMO and LPR cuts will increase [2][14]. Impact on Asset Shortage - If banks shrink their balance sheets in an "anti-involution" environment, it may lead to a simultaneous contraction of corporate financing and corporate deposits, increasing the pressure on the asset shortage [2][14]. Investment Strategy - A barbell strategy is recommended, which can control risks through duration and potentially benefit from the overall decline in interest rates and the narrowing of spreads [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Baiyinhu Coal Power, furthering its integrated "coal-electricity-aluminum" strategy [1]. - Post-transaction, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 2.787 billion yuan to 3.549 billion yuan by June 30, 2025, with the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 27.26% to 41.61% [2]. - The target asset's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2022-2025 is expected to be 150 million yuan, 490 million yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.9 billion yuan, 6.0 billion yuan, and 6.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.0X, 10.6X, and 10.0X [4]. - The financial indicators for 2023A to 2027E show a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with revenue projected to grow from 26.846 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.480 billion yuan in 2027 [11]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 17.0% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [12]. Transaction Details - The acquisition involves a total transaction price of 11.149 billion yuan, with cash consideration of 1.56 billion yuan and share consideration of 9.588 billion yuan [10]. - The transaction is expected to add approximately 1.867 billion yuan to the annualized net profit of the listed company, with a transaction P/E of about 6.0X [10]. - The acquisition will increase the company's total coal production capacity to 63 million tons per year [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Views - The C-REITs market is expected to present allocation opportunities in a low interest rate environment by 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy themes and quality undervalued projects, recognizing the market's acknowledgment of weak cyclical assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [5] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.86% this week, closing at 1050.5 points, while the CSI REITs closing index rose by 0.82% to 818.2 points [11][12] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 8.53% [2] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The C-REITs secondary market showed signs of recovery this week, with a total market capitalization of approximately 222.47 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [13] - Among the listed REITs, 56 increased in value while 20 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.84% [13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs continues to show differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT (9.6%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (9.3%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.5%) [4] - Price-to-NAV ratios range from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being 1.8 for both Harvest Wumei Consumption REIT and E Fund Huawai Agricultural Market REIT [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on projects with recovery potential under policy themes, recognizing the market's acceptance of weak cyclical assets, and paying attention to original rights holders with ample asset reserves for future expansions [5]