Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on companies like TSMC and others involved in AI and advanced manufacturing processes [6][30]. Core Insights - TSMC's FY25Q4 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase [10][11]. - The company anticipates continued robust growth in AI demand, with a projected CAGR of mid-to-high 50% for AI accelerator business from 2024 to 2029 [16][20]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, primarily for advanced process capacity expansion [2][20]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q4 FY25 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit margin of 48.3% [10][11]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65% [10][12]. AI Demand and Market Trends - AI demand is identified as a significant growth driver, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 55% of TSMC's revenue in Q4 FY25 [13][16]. - The report highlights a healthy and genuine demand for AI, with expectations for continued growth in advanced processes and AI-related applications [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to allocate 70%-80% of its 2026 capital expenditure to advanced process expansion, with careful assessment of customer needs [2][20]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan to meet long-term trends in AI and HPC [17][20]. Technology Roadmap - TSMC's N2 process has entered mass production, with expectations for rapid ramp-up in 2026, alongside the introduction of N2P and A16 processes [18][20]. - The N2 family is anticipated to become a key platform with a long lifecycle, reinforcing TSMC's leadership in advanced process technology [18][20].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 01 16 年 月 日 量化专题报告 "机器学习"选股模型系列研究（一） 量价指纹模型的构建与应用初探 （1）分钟特征预处理：选取 32 维分钟级特征，包括价格特征"（如高、低、 收、价格位置等）与交易特征"（如成交额、挂撤单、资金流等），并分别进 行标准化处理，以消除量纲与历史波动的影响； （2）双任务学习框架：通过前向因果预测任务"（价格特征预测）与后向特 征重建任务（交易特征重建），迫使模型学习市场量价关系的动态语义与 因果结构，生成 128 维日度指纹向量； （3）防坍缩设计：引入多样性、正交性与均匀性正则项，确保指纹向量具 备高区分度、低冗余与信息丰富的特性，避免表征坍塌。 量价指纹模型的端到端应用初探：我们将""量价指纹"作为输入特征，结 合 GRU 模型，对股票的未来收益进行预测。测试结果表明： （1）仅使用量价指纹进行模型训练得到的因子，具备一定的预测能力， 2017/01/01-2025/12/31，因子的周度 RankIC 均值为 0.106，全市场 10 分组多空对冲的年化收益为 83.88%，信息比率为 5.41，最大回撤 ...

第一，结构性货币政策依然是主要发力方向，央行调降各类结构性货币政策工 具利率 0.25 个百分点。货币政策继续发挥结构性功能，对重点领域进行重点 支持，央行宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，例如再贷 款一年期限利率从 1.5%下调至 1.25%。并进一步增加结构性工具规模，增加 支农支小再贷款 5000 亿元，将科技创新和技术改造再贷款从 8000 亿元提升 至 1.2 万亿等。显示货币政策继续在保持总量宽松的基调下，更多的发挥结构 性功能，以实现做好五篇大文章和金融供给侧结构性改革的目标。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 16 年 月 日 固定收益点评 从新闻发布会理解央行货币政策 1 月 15 日下午国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会中，央行副行长邹澜以及 多位央行司局级负责人介绍了金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成效，并回 答了记者提问。从中我们可以获得央行货币政策未来方向和执行情况的重要 信息。 第二，降息降准有空间，灵活高效使用。对于降息降准，央行副行长邹澜表示 今年还有一定空间，准备金利率下调存在空间，而银行净息差的企稳以及汇率 贬值压力的缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the PIC (Photonic Integrated Circuit) sector, indicating it as an inevitable path for the development of the optical communication industry [2]. Core Insights - PIC is not merely an upgrade of the industry chain but represents a systematic reconstruction of optical communication, driven by the increasing demand for computing power due to AI [1]. - The integration of multiple optical components into a single chip through PIC technology allows for high levels of integration and modularity, shifting the industry from an "assembly model" to a "chip-based manufacturing" paradigm [1]. - The core value of the industry chain is shifting towards design and process capabilities, enabling companies with autonomous PIC design capabilities to define optical path architectures and dominate the process routes, thus gaining significant bargaining power and high-value segments in the industry [1]. - The demand for optical modules/engines has surged from millions to tens of millions, with future projections reaching hundreds of millions, necessitating new capacity forms to meet this growing demand [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of design capabilities and process accumulation as core barriers to entry in the PIC sector, highlighting companies with leading positions in PIC design, key processes, and upstream materials [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report indicates a significant shift in the optical communication industry, with a projected increase in demand for optical modules driven by AI, necessitating a transition to more efficient manufacturing processes [2]. - The integration of advanced packaging and system architecture through PIC technology opens up new opportunities for optical interconnects across various scenarios, expanding the market from data centers to broader applications [1]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies with leading positions in PIC design include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Kecuan Technology, and Huagong Technology, along with notable non-listed firms such as Xihe Technology and Saili Technology [2]. - In the area of PIC supporting chips/devices, companies like Tianfu Communication, Yuanjie Technology, and Dongtian Micro are highlighted as key players [2]. - For packaging and system integration, companies such as Suosi, Guangxun Technology, and Cambridge Technology are recommended for attention [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional foreign trade platform to an AI-driven digital trade ecosystem, with significant growth potential and a unique application of AI [1]. - The collaboration with Alibaba is deepening, with a complete closed-loop system established from AI tool development to trade scene implementation, significantly enhancing merchant operational efficiency and platform value [1]. - The "World Yiwu" trade model, developed in partnership with Alibaba, is tailored for the Yiwu market, integrating 13 self-developed AI tools into the World Yiwu APP, leading to centralized and intelligent service upgrades [2]. Financial Performance - The CG platform achieved revenue of 257 million yuan and a net profit of 155 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 110% increase [3]. - The company projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.24 billion yuan, 5.76 billion yuan, and 6.91 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.9%, 35.9%, and 20.0% [3]. - Financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in operating revenue from 11.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.42 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 48.3% in 2023 [4]. AI Application Impact - AI tools have significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency for merchants, with over 280,000 users benefiting from AI products by the end of October 2025 [2]. - The "Small Business AI Design" tool has shortened the design cycle from nearly one month to 7-10 days, reducing overall operating costs by approximately 30% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q4 2025 revenue met expectations, with a slight year-on-year decline in overall revenue. Offline channel revenue decreased in the low single digits, while e-commerce revenue remained flat [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to continue its steady growth, with 1,518 stores by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a net increase of 50 stores since the beginning of the year. The inventory turnover ratio is projected to be between 4 and 5, indicating a healthy level [2] - For 2025, the company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.742 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year decline. Revenue is anticipated to show slight growth [2] - In 2026, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts and test new store formats, projecting a revenue growth of 6.5% and a net profit increase of 5.8% to 2.901 billion yuan [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29.269 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.742 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6 times [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 10.6% by 2027 [4]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that in 2025, credit expansion showed marginal improvement, with a notable reliance on fiscal expansion, as the proportion of government bonds in social financing reached a historical high [3] - Monthly data reveals that new credit has decreased year-on-year for six consecutive months, with corporate credit performing better than household credit, driven mainly by the implementation of policy financial tools [3] - Looking ahead, the report suggests that the economy remains in a "weak reality," with significant downward pressure, and anticipates proactive policy measures in 2026 to stimulate economic growth [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the recent volatility in 30-year government bonds, which rose from approximately 1.85% in early July to around 2.3%, an increase of 45 basis points, while local government bonds remained stable [4] - The fitted model indicates that the current 10-year and 30-year local government bond to government bond spreads are at 16 basis points, with upper limits of approximately 23 and 21 basis points, respectively, suggesting limited room for further increases in spreads [4] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report highlights the top-performing industries in January, with Media leading at 25.5%, followed by Non-ferrous Metals at 23.2%, and Defense Industry at 20.5%, while the bottom performers included Banks at -2.5% and Food & Beverage at -1.8% [1] - Over the past year, Non-ferrous Metals showed a remarkable increase of 112.4%, indicating strong sector performance [1] Group 4: Company Insights - The report emphasizes that SenDa Group is a leading player in China's overseas expansion into Africa, leveraging its capabilities to empower the brand LeShuShi through channel, product, and market structure enhancements [5] - Key success factors for SenDa Group include early identification of the direction for industrial and trade integration, local factory establishment, product localization, and deep channel development [5] - The report draws parallels with the operations of Charoen Pokphand Group in China, suggesting that there are valuable lessons to be learned from their century-long operational history [5] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships - The report details a strategic cross-holding agreement between SF Express and J&T Express, where SF will acquire 10% of J&T's shares, while J&T will hold approximately 4.29% of SF's shares, enhancing long-term cooperation [7] - This partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths in logistics networks and operational capabilities, facilitating better resource allocation and market coverage in key regions [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 15 年 月 日 交通运输 极兔顺丰战略相互持股，星辰大海，共赴征程 合作要点：顺丰以每股 10.10 港元认购极兔 8.22 亿股 B 类股份，交易后 持股 10%（ 含交易前已持有的 1.67%）。极兔以每股 36.74 港元认购顺丰 2.26 亿股 H 股股份，交易后持股约 4.29%。双方所持股票均设五年锁定 期，且顺丰获得极兔董事会一个席位的提名权，可以确保双方合作长期稳 定。交易完成后，双方将实现资源互通、优势互补，在建设全球物流网络、 布局基础设施、业务协同等方面探索更多的业务合作可能性。 海外网络加强：强强联合，卡位出海机遇。 顺丰海外优势：拥有跨境头程 与干线段的核心资源优势和成熟运营体系。极兔海外优势：在东南亚、中 东、拉美等全球 13 个国家拥有末端网络与本地化运营优势。双方优势结 合，可以有效打通从中国出海的头程干线到海外目的地国家"最后一公里" 全链路，共同增强端到端跨境物流解决方案的网络覆盖和产品竞争力。有 助于把握中资企业出海及跨境电商带来的历史性机遇。我们推断，此次合 作使双方得以避免在干线或末端环节进行高投 ...

Core Insights - Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, China's exports still grew by 5.5% in 2025, driven by rapid growth in high-tech products such as electronic intermediate goods, automobiles, and industrial robots [3] - The import growth rate fell to 0%, resulting in a trade surplus that exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, providing positive support for economic growth [3] - For 2026, China's exports are expected to maintain resilience with a projected growth rate of around 5%, supported by increased openness, stable exports to the US, and advantages in AI and "new three items" products [3] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in January included Media (29.0%), Defense and Military (24.0%), and Computer (22.8%), while the bottom performers were Banking (-1.8%) and Food & Beverage (-1.3%) [2] - The overall performance of the media sector showed a remarkable annual increase of 63.7%, indicating strong market dynamics [2] Company-Specific Insights First Pacific (00142.HK) - First Pacific has a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market, with four main business segments: consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources [7] - In 2024, the company reported revenues of $10.057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, while net profit increased by 19.77% to $600 million, showcasing robust profitability [7][8] - The company is expected to see net profits of $649 million, $708 million, and $767 million from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% respectively [8] Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) - Dongpeng Beverage anticipates a revenue increase of 31.07% to 33.34% in 2025, with projected revenues between 20.76 billion and 21.12 billion yuan [10] - The company expects net profits to rise by 30.46% to 37.97%, with estimates ranging from 4.34 billion to 4.59 billion yuan [10] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and overseas markets, which is expected to contribute to significant profit growth in the coming years [11][12] Dingjie Intelligence (300378.SZ) - Dingjie Intelligence was recognized as one of the top 20 data intelligence service providers in China, indicating its leadership in AI manufacturing [9] - Revenue projections for Dingjie from 2025 to 2027 are set at 2.438 billion, 2.608 billion, and 2.841 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 180 million, 204 million, and 263 million yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in Leshu Comfort (乐舒适) as "Buy" with projected EPS of 0.16 in 2024, increasing to 0.25 by 2027, and a PE ratio decreasing from 24.20 in 2024 to 133.60 in 2027 [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that SenDa Group is a leading Chinese enterprise in Africa, leveraging its capabilities to empower Leshu Comfort through its channel, product, and market structure [1]. - SenDa Group has established a comprehensive industrial group that integrates overseas manufacturing, international trade, and industrial investment, with a strong presence in various sectors including home decoration materials, fast-moving consumer goods, and hardware [1][12]. - The report draws parallels between SenDa Group's expansion in Africa and Charoen Pokphand Group's (正大集团) historical success in China, suggesting that SenDa Group is poised to replicate this success in emerging markets [5][4]. Summary by Sections SenDa Group: Deepening Localization in Africa - SenDa Group has been operating in Africa for over 20 years, transitioning from traditional trade to localized manufacturing, creating jobs, and driving industry development [12][29]. - The company has established 32 manufacturing operations globally, with sales covering over 60 countries, showcasing its strong global operational capabilities [12][14]. - Key factors for SenDa's success include early identification of the integrated trade and manufacturing model, local production, and strong government-business relationships [32][33]. Empowering Leshu Comfort - SenDa Group provides financial support to Leshu Comfort through loans and advances, enhancing its capital turnover efficiency [3]. - The group offers supply chain and management support, including raw materials, technical assistance, and administrative services [3]. - Leshu Comfort has established a wide sales network across 12 countries with 18 branches and over 2800 wholesalers and retailers [3][39]. Learning from Charoen Pokphand Group's Journey - The report identifies several successful strategies from Charoen Pokphand Group's history, such as seizing market opportunities, extending the industrial chain, and diversifying financing channels [4]. - SenDa Group's current trajectory mirrors that of Charoen Pokphand Group, indicating potential for significant growth in Africa [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Leshu Comfort's products are competitively priced, with a gross margin of around 30%, making them attractive compared to international brands [38][39]. - The company's localized production strategy allows for rapid response to market demands, reducing shipping times and costs [38][41]. - SenDa Group's investments in local manufacturing not only enhance brand acceptance but also contribute to local economic development [41][42].