Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the "15th Five-Year Plan" and suggests a positive outlook, urging stakeholders to seize opportunities as they arise [6] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of three additional cuts in 2026 [6][7] - The coal industry is expected to experience upward price movements due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, particularly in thermal coal and coking coal [20][21] Group 2 - The C-REITs market is showing a mixed performance, with municipal water conservancy and data center sectors performing well, while other sectors are experiencing slight pullbacks [19] - The electric power sector in Guangdong is expected to see improved electricity prices due to upcoming trading mechanisms, with a focus on renewable energy sources [25] - The construction materials sector is currently facing weak fundamentals, with expectations for more supportive real estate policies to stimulate demand [27] Group 3 - The robotics sector is highlighted for its advancements in AI integration, with significant developments in training models that enhance operational efficiency [14] - The textile and apparel industry is witnessing a recovery in retail sales, with specific brands like Nike showing improved fundamentals and potential for growth [32][33] - The environmental sector is benefiting from new policies aimed at enhancing carbon trading and management, which are expected to create opportunities for companies involved in these areas [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the underlying logic for the recent rise in coal prices is due to supply constraints caused by increased safety inspections and production restrictions. It predicts that coal prices will continue to rise, especially if demand exceeds expectations, such as during a cold winter [2][7] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production has been declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September, and this trend is expected to continue into October [2][11] - The report notes that the current low inventory levels compared to the previous year will reduce price suppression, allowing for greater price elasticity if demand increases [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates that the coal mining index increased by 1.46% but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 3.24% [2][74] - It mentions that the price of thermal coal has stabilized after a rapid increase, with the current price at 770 RMB/ton, up by 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][34] - The report also states that the supply of coking coal remains tight, with prices reaching new highs due to strong demand from downstream industries [11][52] Key Areas of Analysis - For thermal coal, the report identifies ongoing supply disruptions and low port inventories as factors that make prices likely to rise [12][15] - In the coking coal segment, the report notes that prices have surged due to strong purchasing sentiment from downstream users, with some prices increasing by 30-100 RMB/ton since October [11][52] - The report highlights that the overall supply-demand balance in the coal industry remains stable, with expectations for further price increases as production constraints persist [2][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, all rated as "Buy" [10] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply situation and potential demand recovery in the coal market, particularly in relation to the real estate sector [11][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover. It is believed that the interest rate decline will be smoother in the second half of the fourth quarter. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate is expected to recover to the pre - adjustment level of 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [5][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Performance and Interest Rate Trend - This week, funds remained loose, and the bond market declined slightly. The R007 was stable below 1.5%, and R001 was below 1.4%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 2.4bps and 1.2bps to 1.85% and 2.21% respectively, and the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds rose by 2.9bps and 0.8bps [1][8]. - Fundamentally and in terms of funds, the trend supports the decline of interest rates. The slight adjustment of interest rates last week was driven by the increase in risk appetite such as the rise of the stock market. The GDP real and nominal growth rates in the third quarter slowed down, and the real growth rate may further decline in the fourth quarter [1][8]. 3.2 Bond Market Fund Supply and Demand - The bond market shows a situation where the source of funds is greater than the supply of assets, and the gap has recently widened. Except for funds, the liability - side growth rates of financial institutions such as banks, insurance, and wealth management have increased. The total growth rate of relevant items increased from 10.5% in May to 11.5% in September [2][9]. - Due to the insufficient supply of other fixed - income assets such as loans and non - standard assets, financial institutions need to allocate more bonds. The non - government bond social financing growth rate in September was 5.9%, significantly lower than the 11.5% growth rate of the liabilities of financial institutions. The gap may continue to widen in the future [3][12]. 3.3 Asset - Liability Mismatch in Duration - Although the bond market is in a state of increasing asset shortage in terms of total volume, the pressure of duration mismatch is increasing. The liability side of financial institutions shows a short - term characteristic, while the duration of the asset side is lengthening, especially in banks [3][15]. - The proportion of current deposits in total deposits of banks increased from 19.5% in May to 20.1% in September, while the average issuance period of local bonds in the first nine months was 15.6 years, significantly higher than the 13.1 - year level of the same period last year [3][15]. 3.4 Response to Duration Pressure - The increase in duration pressure should be viewed dynamically. The rise in long - term bond yields has partially reflected this situation. The rise in long - term interest rates may also lead to dynamic changes in supply and demand and adjustments in institutional allocation behavior [4][17]. 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover. In the second half of the fourth quarter, as the bond - selling pressure of banks fades and the risk of public offering fee reform is settled, the decline of interest rates will be smoother [5][19]. - It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy, which can control risks through duration and obtain double benefits from the overall decline of interest rates and the narrowing of spreads [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable profit release, with significant contributions from its shipbuilding and power generation businesses. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 87.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.52%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.104 billion yuan, up 10.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The shipbuilding business continues to contribute positively, with new deliveries and contracts signed, including the construction of bulk carriers for Greek shipping companies [1] - The power generation business shows substantial growth potential, with a notable increase in production capacity, particularly for high-power units, achieving a year-on-year increase in output value of 46% [1] Financial Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 6.76%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 2.73% [2] - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to be 117.9 billion yuan, 121.4 billion yuan, and 125 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.274 billion yuan, 1.379 billion yuan, and 1.487 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.14 yuan per share [2][3] - The company is characterized as a "supply chain + industrial chain" dual-driven foreign trade enterprise, benefiting from strong state-owned enterprise resources and a mature employee incentive mechanism [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a 470% year-on-year growth in non-recurring net profit, attributed to supply chain reforms that enhanced profit elasticity [1][4]. - Despite a decline in revenue by 3.87% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 22.77 million yuan, marking a 24.34% increase compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The company is expected to enter a profit elasticity release period due to stable same-store performance and reduced losses in out-of-province operations, alongside supply chain reforms that improve gross margins [10]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.581 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.87% year-on-year, with a total revenue of 13.588 billion yuan for the first three quarters, also down by 3.81% [2]. - The gross margin for the main business in Q3 2025 was 20.59%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 23.93%, up by 0.67 percentage points [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.584 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.08% [1]. Store Expansion and Operations - In Q3 2025, the company opened 7 new direct-operated stores and 13 franchise stores, while closing 14 direct-operated stores, resulting in a total of 1,090 stores at the end of the period [2]. - The company’s store types include 242 comprehensive supermarkets, 400 community fresh food supermarkets, and 202 rural supermarkets [2]. Cost Management - The expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 22.01%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year, with a slight increase in sales and management expense ratios [4]. - The total expenses decreased, contributing to improved profit quality [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 207 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 288 million yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 57.2%, 20.6%, and 15.0% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the C-REITs sector [5] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [4][5] - The C-REITs secondary market has shown volatility, with municipal water conservancy and data center sectors performing well, while affordable housing and industrial park sectors experienced slight pullbacks [12] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.16% this week, closing at 1045.1 points, with a year-to-date increase of 7.98% [10][11] - The index performance of major benchmarks this week includes the CSI 300 up by 3.24% and the Hang Seng index up by 3.62% [10][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 217.68 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [12] - Among the listed REITs, 46 increased in value while 28 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.28% [12] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.9%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4%, and Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT at 8.1% [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for various REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, indicating varying levels of valuation [3] Trading Activity - The data center sector exhibited the highest trading activity this week, with an average daily trading volume of 1.68 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.6% [2] - The top three REITs by trading volume were Huatai Zijin Bay Logistics REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Traffic Control REIT, and China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak fundamentals, with expectations for more supportive real estate policies [1] - The recent Central Committee meeting emphasized the importance of building a strong domestic market and enhancing effective investment, which could positively impact the construction materials sector [2] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the positive changes in supply-side dynamics for cement and glass industries [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) rose by 0.40%, with cement and glass manufacturing declining by 0.72% and 0.89%, respectively, while fiberglass manufacturing increased by 3.37% [1][12] - The net inflow of funds into the construction materials sector was +415 million yuan during this period [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the national cement price index was 343.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [17] - The total cement output for the week was 2.616 million tons, up 3.46% from the previous week [17] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 63.75%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.39 percentage points [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of October 23, 2025, was 1243.68 yuan/ton, down 4.40% from the previous week [5] - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces increased by 2.9 million heavy boxes week-on-week, indicating a growing supply [5] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with demand showing slight improvement [6] - The average price of electronic fiberglass was stable, with high-end products experiencing tight supply [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remained stable, with a production volume of 1857 tons and an operating rate of 61.69% [7] - The industry continues to face challenges with a negative gross margin, indicating ongoing losses for many companies [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) [8] - Weixing New Materials (Overweight) [8] - Sankeshu (Buy) [8] - China Jushi (Buy) [8] - Yinlong Co. (Buy) [8] - Puren Co. (Buy) [8]

证券研究报告 |行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 26 年 月 日 通信 光的新节奏 光通信行业正迎来新节奏：AI 算力爆发的实质性需求，驱动以往每年 第二季度才开始的预期回暖提前到来；上游核心芯片与原材料短缺， 下游需求的持续旺盛且客户不断加单的背景下，行业正进入"保交付" 的新时代。 【光通信市场的复苏节奏提前】 由于海外厂商的持续性追加订单，光通信市场已迎来提前回暖迹象。 【2026 年：行业转向"保交付"时代】 算力需求的持续增长，行业的主要矛盾逐渐转移。我们预计，到 2026 年，整个光通信产业链将从"争订单"全面进入"保交付"时代，交 付能力取代订单获取能力，成为企业核心竞争力的关键指标，龙头企 业将凭借其供应链掌控力脱颖而出。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com 分析师 黄瀚 执业证书编号：S0680519050002 邮箱：huanghan@gszq. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [3]. Core Views - The electricity trading mechanism in Guangdong for 2026 is expected to boost electricity price expectations, with a focus on controllable nuclear fusion [1][9]. - Thermal power performance in Q3 is anticipated to improve due to a rebound in coal prices, enhancing the expectation of stable electricity prices [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage policies and the value of flexible power sources, suggesting a focus on the thermal power sector and undervalued green electricity stocks [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,950.31 points, up 2.88%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,660.68 points, up 3.24%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3,146.78 points, up 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.11 percentage points [1][54]. Key Insights - The Guangdong 2026 electricity trading mechanism has been released, maintaining the trading benchmark price and floating range, while canceling the variable cost compensation mechanism for nuclear power. The market will expand to include all renewable energy sources [9]. - The benchmark price for coal-fired electricity is set at 0.453 CNY/kWh, with a floating range of 20%, leading to a projected annual trading price range of 0.372 to 0.554 CNY/kWh for 2026 [9]. - The report highlights the expected increase in capacity price to 165 CNY/kW/year, which may offset lower trading prices [9]. Thermal Power - Coal prices have rebounded to 770 CNY/ton, which is expected to support the thermal power sector [10]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and others in the thermal power sector due to their potential for performance improvement [2][6]. Hydropower - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir have significantly increased, with inflow rising by 91.86% and outflow by 70.24% compared to the previous year [32]. Green Energy - The report notes that silicon material prices remain stable, with mainstream silicon wafer prices also unchanged, indicating potential for improved returns on photovoltaic projects in the long term [42]. Carbon Market - The national carbon market saw a price increase of 4.77% this week, with a closing price of 54.70 CNY/ton, reflecting a growing interest in carbon trading [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has increased its investment in content and technology, which has impacted short-term performance but is expected to drive long-term growth due to its unique state-owned platform advantages and strong content output capabilities [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 9.063 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 11.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.016 billion yuan, down 29.67% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company launched 28 new seasonal variety shows, maintaining the highest market share in the industry, with several shows ranking in the top 10 for effective views [2]. - The membership business showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of approximately 11.08% in average monthly active users [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.099 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 33.47% [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.182 billion yuan, 1.611 billion yuan, and 1.735 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -13.4%, +36.3%, and +7.7% respectively [4]. Content and IP Development - The company has a rich content reserve, including nearly 100 film and television projects and several high-performing IP adaptations [2]. - The launch of the "Thousand IP Joint Creation Ecological Plan" aims to collaborate with leading copyright platforms to develop short dramas [2]. Business Segments - The advertising business showed signs of recovery, with Q3 advertising revenue growth returning to positive territory [3]. - The company is expanding its e-commerce segment, leveraging its content IP and artist resources [3].