证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 2025 05 24 年 月 日 智能驾驶技术的当下与未来： 头部玩家的探索与启示 首席分析师 夏君 分析师 刘玲 执业证书编号：S0680519100004 执业证书编号：S0680524070003 邮箱：xiajun@gszq.com 邮箱：liuling3@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 目录 ▎1、软件侧：从"模仿人类"到"超越人类"、从"聋哑司机"到"司机助理" 1.1 从"模仿人类"到"超越人类" 1.2 从"聋哑司机"到"司机助理" ▎2、硬件侧：比人看得清、比人想得远、比人反应快 2.1 感知层：双目感知、鹰眼视觉、激光雷达，比人看得清 2.2 决策层：下一代智驾系统对芯片要求更高，比人想得远 2.3 执行层：线控趋势已成，比人反应快 2 1.1 从"模仿人类"到"超越人类" ➢ 智驾要普及，光"模仿人类"不够，必须"超越人类" 第一个问题：智驾能否普及？人类会不会永远不敢把生命交给 智能驾驶？或者渗透率的上限很低？ Eg. 一个关于"电梯" 发展早期的例子：从工业革命时期开始， 升降机就已经可以实现上下移动物体或人的基本功能，但直到纽 约在1853-1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 24 年 月 日 医药生物 【周专题&周观点】【总第 398 期】创新药牛市底层逻辑？ASCO 数据哪些超预期？继续推仿创大 Pharma 重估 一、当周（5.19-5.23）回顾与周专题： 当周（5.19-5.23）申万医药指数环比+1.78%，跑赢创业板指数，跑赢沪深 300 指数。 本周周报，我们对 2025 年 ASCO 数据进行梳理，继续推荐仿创大 Pharma 重估。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场走出倒 V 字，轮动较快，医药表现较好，排序第一。细分来看， 创新药表现较好（其中 PD1 双抗、仿创、部分中小市值管线重磅表现系统性更好一些）， 创新产业链也有所表现，部分药店表现较好。 2、原因分析：本周市场赚钱效应不好，轮动较快，主要是一轮反弹大部分指数都回到 了关税变化之前的位置，但事情毕竟发生了变化，市场向上动能不足。医药这边，创新 药分支是为数不多的产业逻辑很强的行业，在经历了 1-2 周的调整之后，在三生和辉瑞 创造了一个创纪录的 deal 之后，创新药强势归来，这个过程中，演绎范围及强度：PD1 Plus（（双 ...

电力 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 23 年 月 日 4 月电量数据：4 月用电增 4.7%，绿电发电增速加快 事件：中电联发布 1-4 月电力消费情况，国家统计局公布 4 月份能源生 产情况。 增持（维持） （1）火电：成本下跌支撑盈利持续改善，迎峰度夏有望改善需求。煤价快速 下跌至 620 元/吨附近，成本超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机 会。此外，电改持续深入兑现火电调峰和容量支持作用，迎峰度夏在即，火电 保供压舱石作用再凸显。建议关注重点火电标的：华电国际、华能国际、大唐 发电、建投能源；以及火电改造设备龙头：青达环保。 （2）绿电：入市有托底，优选风电。新能源入市落地在即，我们推荐关注存 量项目占比较高&短期收益确定性更优、以及中长期更具降本增效优势的绿电 运营商。叠加绿证交易等政策催化，绿电未来环境价值凸显。推荐布局低估绿 电板块，推荐优先关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源 （H）、龙源电力（H）、中闽能源、福能股份。 （3）水电/核电：把握水核防御优势。水电板块，建议关注长江电力、国投 电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its product categories and channels over the past 20 years, focusing on core products and brand development to drive growth [1][3]. - The retail landscape in China is undergoing rapid transformation, with the company effectively leveraging new channel opportunities to enhance its competitive position [2][3]. - The company has established a strong cost leadership through efficient supply chain management, supporting its high-quality and cost-effective product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Development - The company has evolved through three key phases: initial establishment focusing on product diversification, a phase of channel expansion through innovative store formats, and a recent shift towards a multi-channel strategy emphasizing core product branding [13][15]. - Revenue has grown significantly from 750 million in 2017 to an expected 5.3 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.1% [1][15]. Channel Expansion - The company has adapted to the changing retail environment by embracing new channels such as discount stores and e-commerce platforms, achieving notable operational success in these areas [2][3]. - The introduction of the "Egg Emperor" product in Sam's Club has positioned the company favorably within the competitive landscape [2][3]. Product System - The company is focusing on building category brands to enhance market recognition and drive profitability, with successful launches of products like "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor" [3][4]. - The company has achieved a leading position in cost management through raw material control and efficient supply chain practices, which supports its competitive pricing strategy [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.96 billion, 8.63 billion, and 10.24 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 846 million, 1.07 billion, and 1.30 billion [4][5]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 31.2%, 24.0%, and 18.7% for revenue, and 32.2%, 26.8%, and 21.5% for net profit [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its product categories and channels over the past 20 years, focusing on core products and brand development to drive growth [1][3]. - The retail landscape in China is undergoing rapid transformation, with the company effectively leveraging new channel opportunities to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2][3]. - The company has established a competitive advantage through cost leadership and a robust supply chain, enabling it to maintain high product quality and affordability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Development - The company has evolved through three key phases: initial establishment focusing on product diversification, a phase of channel expansion through innovative store formats, and a recent shift towards a multi-channel strategy emphasizing core product branding [13][15]. - From 2017 to 2020, the company launched the "Golden Shop" and "Blue Sapphire" store formats, significantly increasing its market presence and revenue [14][15]. - Since 2021, the company has embraced a full-channel expansion strategy, resulting in substantial revenue growth and improved profitability metrics [15][18]. Channel Expansion - The retail sector is rapidly changing, with a focus on efficiency and the rise of discount formats, which the company has capitalized on through strategic partnerships and channel diversification [2][3]. - The company has achieved notable success in emerging channels such as discount stores and e-commerce platforms like Douyin, enhancing its competitive positioning [2][3]. Product System - The company is focused on building brand recognition for its core products while maintaining a diverse product portfolio to meet evolving consumer demands [3][4]. - The establishment of a cost leadership position through effective supply chain management supports the company's long-term competitive advantage [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimates of 69.6 billion, 86.3 billion, and 102.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside corresponding net profit growth [3][4].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 23 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 锚定基准做超额收益——股票组合偏离度管理的几个方案 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【金融工程】锚定基准做超额收益——股票组合偏离度管理的几个方案 ——20250522 【钢铁】重估中国-2025 年中期策略报告——20250522 【电子】纳芯微（688052.SH）-车规模拟芯片龙头，磁传感器加速成长 ——20250522 【医药生物】阳光诺和（688621.SH）-收购朗研加码创新，"研发服务+ 管线培育+新质产业链"三位一体——20250522 ◼ 研究视点 【商贸零售】4 月社零同比增长 5.1%，基本符合预期——20250522 【纺织服饰】滔搏（06110.HK）-FY2025 库存去化顺利推进，高分红回 馈投资者——20250522 【食品饮料】青岛啤酒（600600.SH）-跨界扩张，旺季发力——20250522 【食品饮料】三只松鼠（300783.SZ）-三生万物生态大会：打破边界，全 域拓展——20250522 作者 | 分析师 杨然 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S068051805000 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 钢铁 重估中国-2025 年中期策略报告 引子：曾经阅读过我们的中国崛起系列报告《走向成熟》、《时代的周期》、 《告别放任的年代》、《江河万古流》的投资者可能已经对中国经济长期短 期内部和外部的问题都有了一定框架性的认识。研究里有时候我们少了望 远镜，无论是往前还是往后。我们往往更习惯于显微镜观察，不少时候容 易只看到皮毛的褶皱和老化，鲜有看见整体机体的美妙。如今从 DeepSeek 模型发布开始，伴随着一系列事件的发生，使得越来越多的人开始反思过 去西方式的悲观叙事，重新审视中国资产。过去几年有很多迷思在今年可 能得到澄清，很多资产的价格可能会随之重估。 债务周期与中国经济：历史有一个循环几乎是无法拒绝的，勤劳致富，然 后坐享其成，再然后衰败；长期来看只有劳动者、奋斗者才可以保持长期 自由，而保持奋斗是逆人性的。亘古不变的人性具象化映射在国家生命周 期上就形成国家的债务周期。我们将国家的债务周期划分成三个阶段：地 方政府债务化、地方债务中央化和国家债务货币化，分别对应了一个国家 勤劳致富、坐享其成和再衰败的过程。国家工业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in automotive analog chips, achieving record revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 717 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 97.82% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20.66% [1][23] - The domestic demand for analog chips is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 84.3 billion USD by 2025, while the domestic localization rate for automotive analog chips is only about 5% in 2024, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [2][46] - The company is expected to benefit from the electrification and intelligence of vehicles, with the magnetic sensor market projected to grow from 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 19 billion yuan in 2029 [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Automotive Analog Chip Leader - The company focuses on automotive analog chips and has expanded its product matrix, with over 3,300 product models available for sale by the end of 2024 [1][14] - The company has a stable shareholding structure and an experienced core management team [16][20] - The company’s revenue is expected to return to growth in 2024, with net profit temporarily pressured by stock incentive costs [21][23] Section 2: Demand for Domestic Analog Chips - The analog chip market is expected to grow steadily, with the global market projected to reach 84.3 billion USD by 2025 [2][43] - The domestic analog chip market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2025 to 2029, with automotive and energy sectors leading the growth [46] Section 3: Benefiting from Electrification and Intelligence - The company’s acquisition of Maguan enhances its magnetic sensing IP technology, positioning it as a leader in the Chinese magnetic sensor market [3][42] - The company’s automotive electronics revenue is expected to account for 36.88% of total revenue in 2024, with a shipment volume of 363 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 100% [35][36] Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.96 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.0%, 28.2%, and 24.6% [4][5] - The report emphasizes the company’s strong positioning in the automotive analog chip sector and recommends a "Buy" rating based on its growth potential [4][6]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 量化分析报告 锚定基准做超额收益——股票组合偏离度管理的几个方案 证监会于 5 月 7 日发布了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，主动权 益基金经理们未来或将会更加重视基准，锚定基准创造超额收益，那么在 控制偏离度的情况下创造超额有哪些简单可行的方案？ 风格、行业、个股偏离选择哪个？从主动股基的收益归因来看，主动权益 整体呈现"亏风格、平行业、赚个股"的显著特征。因此主动股基的股票 投资组合想要锚定基准做出超额收益，应该把重心放在如何挖掘个股 alpha 上面，风格和行业层面可以尽量控制和基准之间的偏离度不要太大。 方案①：核心卫星化，W%锚定基准+1-W%主动管理 方案：类似于核心卫星策略，拿出 W%的仓位用于锚定基准指数作为核心 部分，剩下（1-W%）的仓位用于实践股票配置观点作为卫星部分。 结论：方案①可以在不降低该基金超额收益的情况下更好地控制跟踪误差 和降低业绩偏离度，投资中参数 W 可以根据产品的考核要求进行选择， 例如要求年化跟踪误差小于 10%、最大日度偏离度小于 2%，则参数 W 可 以考虑设置为 40 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 跨界扩张，旺季发力 事件：近日公司召开 2024 年年度股东大会，新任董事长姜宗祥先生主持 会议并就公司近况进行交流。 啤酒：核心大单品为基，产品推新旺季发力。产品端公司持续推进青岛啤 酒主品牌"1+1+1+2+N"组合发展，核心大单品经典等继续做大做强， 高端及超高端系列目标更高增速。近年公司推出"奥古特 A 系列、尼卡希 白啤、无醇啤酒系列、轻干啤酒"等新品，丰富不同价格带、多元口味矩 阵，无醇、轻干等产品顺应健康消费大趋势，把握细分市场需求。区域来 看，公司加速推进"一纵两横"战略带市场建设与布局，完善渠道网络。 25Q1 啤酒淡季公司平稳过渡，旺季将加大市场开拓力度、发力产品结构 升级，量价或取得更优表现。 非啤酒：横向拓展多元酒饮，黄酒淡旺季互为补充。5 月 8 日公司公告收 购即墨黄酒 100%股权，收购对价 6.65 亿元。黄酒业务的补充为公司横向 拓展多元酒饮业务上的重要一步，黄酒与啤酒销售淡旺季互为补充，缓解 淡季销量占比偏低问题。同时黄酒销售网络及渠道等可与公司啤酒优势市 ...