Group 1: Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI in May showed a seasonal rebound but remains in the contraction zone, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased [4] - Key signals include a rebound in supply and demand, an increase in import and export orders, and a slight decline in price indices, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [4] - The overall economic outlook suggests that internal demand issues remain prominent, with a need for policy intervention to support growth [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market is currently experiencing limited downside potential, with the probability of returning to previous lows being negligible [5] - A mid-term bullish trend is confirmed across multiple indices, indicating the beginning of a new bull market phase [6] - Investors are encouraged to position themselves strategically during this market adjustment phase, as opportunities are expected to arise [6] Group 3: Fixed Income Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangsu showed strong economic growth with a focus on debt reduction, while Guangdong faced economic adjustments due to global trade uncertainties [9][10] - The overall market environment is expected to improve post mid-June, with potential for interest rates to decline further, creating more opportunities in the bond market [11] - The central bank's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity, with a stable performance in certificates of deposit [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the launch of the Huawei and JAC Motors' ZunJie S800, which has already seen strong pre-orders [19][20] - The smart driving industry is expected to enter a golden growth period, with increasing penetration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in new vehicles [21] - The stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong marks a significant step in financial innovation, benefiting various segments of the digital asset ecosystem [24] Group 5: Company Performance - Ideal Auto's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, with projected sales and revenue growth for the next three years [31] - Xiaomi Group is expected to maintain strong revenue growth driven by core technology advancements, with significant contributions from its automotive segment [32] - Honglu Steel Structure is positioned for recovery with a notable increase in orders and production, benefiting from demand restoration and operational efficiencies [34]

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 手握多座世界级矿山，银锡龙头未来可期 立足银、锡、锌，公司资源版图由内蒙走向全球。公司上市以来经历了 2011、2014-2016、2023-至今三轮矿山资源扩充。立足银、锌、锡资源压 舱石，目前旗下银漫、乾金达、融冠已具备三座亿级利润的大型矿山，成 为支撑公司高成长的现金奶牛。2023 年起，公司陆续完成了博盛矿业（黄 金）、宇邦矿业（（银锌锌）收购，托管大股东旗下布敦银根矿业（银锌锌）， 拟要约收购大西洋锡业（锡），完成新一轮资源版图扩充。 手握三座世界级银矿，扬帆起航正当时。目前子公司银漫矿业拥有白银资 源量 8058 吨，平均品位 185g/吨；宇邦矿业保有白银资源量 1.79 万吨， 平均品位 125g/吨，单体银矿储量排名位列亚洲第一，全球第五；托管大 股东的布敦银根矿业拥有白银资源量 1.1 万吨，平均品位 158g/吨。根据 世界白银协会披露的全球前十大在产矿山，剔除第一大 KGHM 后（资源量 8.3 万吨，平均品位 58.3g/吨）平均资源量 7100 吨，平均品位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with the VLA model also expected to be released [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce more affordable MPV and sedan models based on market demand after the launch of the L series and i series [2]. - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for this version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 2,328 supercharging stations and 12,689 supercharging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. Sales and Production Forecast - The company expects to sell approximately 580,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be around 19% in Q2 due to increased promotional efforts [2]. Valuation - The target market capitalization is set at 280.9 billion RMB, with a target price of approximately 131 HKD per share, corresponding to a 25x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with a global shipment of 41.8 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a global market share of 14.1% [1][3] - The IoT business is focusing on high-end and international expansion, with revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan in 2025, 634.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 764.8 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% respectively [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the main consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan in 2025, 52.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 61.1 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% respectively [3][5] - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive adjusted net profit, projecting a turnaround to 10.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][5] Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, adjusted net profit, and earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][13] - The expected adjusted EPS is projected to be 1.6 yuan in 2025, 2.4 yuan in 2026, and 3.1 yuan in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with a subsequent model, i6, expected in September [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Product Development - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for the Home version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The VLA model, which enhances the driving experience through advanced AI, is set to be released alongside the i8 in July [4]. Market Position - The company has established a robust supercharging network with 2,328 stations and 12,689 charging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. - The company aims to introduce more competitively priced MPVs and sedans based on market demand after the launch of its L series and i series models [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a gross margin of 12.4% in Q1 2025, while global smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units, a 3% increase [1][3] - The IoT business continues to focus on high-end and international markets, generating 32.3 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan, 634.5 billion yuan, and 764.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the core consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan, 52.0 billion yuan, and 61.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% [3][5] - The report anticipates a target price of 60 HKD for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026 estimates [3][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 房地产 单月销售额同比来看，重点房企中绿城、中海、滨江同比正增，其余多数处于同 比下降状态，与货值供应等因素相关，企业层面无超预期表现，与城市走势基本 一致。从 2025 年 1-5 月累计操盘口径销售金额来看，保利发展最高为 1068.1 亿 元，其次为绿城中国、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口，分别实现销售金额 964.4、 858.6、772.5、638.0 亿元。从累计操盘口径销售金额增速看，TOP40 房企有 20 家实现同比正增长。其中能建城发同比表现最佳，累计同比增长 201.7%，其次为 鸿荣源 185.3%、深业集团 170.8%、中建智地 102.8%、电建地产 92.6%。重点 房企 1-5 月操盘销售额累计同比来看，越秀地产 40.3%、华发股份 21.4%、建发 房产 2.7%、绿城中国-2.3%、华润置地-7.4%、滨江集团-8.5%、保利发展-10.6%、 中海地产-11.1%、招商蛇口-11.9%。 投资建议：维持行业"增持"评级。我们认为重点关注房地产相关股票有以下理 由：1、政策受基本面倒逼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][33][7] Core Insights - The real estate market showed a lukewarm performance in May, with a slight month-on-month increase of 2% in sales for the top 100 real estate companies. Cumulative sales from January to May decreased by 7% year-on-year [1][12] - The report emphasizes that the current policies are expected to be more forceful than those in 2008 and 2014, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics [4][33] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and a few mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4][33] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 295.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. Cumulative sales from January to May reached 1313.71 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [1][12][30] - The top 31-50 and top 21-30 tiers of companies showed positive year-on-year growth in sales, while the top 10 companies experienced a decline of 11.1% [2][16] Company Performance - Among the top 40 companies, 20 reported positive year-on-year growth in sales. Poly Developments led with sales of 106.81 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Development [3][30][31] - Notable performers included Nengjian Chengfa with a year-on-year growth of 201.7%, and Hongrongyuan with 185.3% [3][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven market changes. Recommended stocks include Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments among others [4][33] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply-side policies and the performance of quality real estate companies in first and second-tier cities [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a cost support level that could lead to a rebound if favorable policies are introduced [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC Coal Index is at 3,258.46 points, down 0.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.54 percentage points, ranking 23rd among CITIC sector performance [2][76] - The coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies and intensity determining coal price movements. The upcoming peak summer demand and potential price stabilization policies are critical factors to monitor [10][37] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market is stable with slight adjustments. Production in major coal-producing areas is tightening slightly, while downstream demand remains primarily for essential needs. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range due to limited demand from power plants [11][13][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to decline, with prices under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels. The report emphasizes the need to monitor production cuts from coking coal enterprises as prices approach marginal costs [10][40] - **Coke**: Profit margins are shrinking, and procurement remains focused on essential needs. The overall production of coke is still increasing, but market sentiment is negative due to declining steel prices [58][75] Investment Strategy - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their potential for recovery. It also suggests monitoring companies like Qinfa and Xinji Energy for their performance amidst current challenges [10][9]