Market Review - The new narrative logic of the Chinese market is becoming clearer, with significant asset volatility driven by Trump's fluctuating policies, tariff disputes, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [4] - The A-share market has benefited from technological innovation and a solid fundamental backdrop, leading to an increase in allocation value [4][13] - The small-cap style has significantly outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising over 10% [4][19] Market Environment - External uncertainties continue to evolve, impacting global risk appetite, while domestic fundamentals remain resilient [4][30] - The weak dollar is expected to support the valuation of emerging markets, including Chinese assets, in the medium to long term [4][40] Structural Opportunities - New industries are experiencing significant positive changes, with emerging sectors like AI, advanced manufacturing, and new consumption trends gaining momentum [4][20] - The financing landscape is shifting towards new productive forces, with IPOs increasing by 26.5% year-on-year and M&A activity rising dramatically [4][24] Investment Outlook - The market environment is reminiscent of the second half of 2019, with external uncertainties and a recovery in domestic earnings [4][6] - Four main investment themes are identified: technological innovation (AI, semiconductors), new consumption (beauty care, leisure food), advanced manufacturing (automotive, military), and non-ferrous metals (gold, copper) [4][6][24]

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The report indicates that the economic resilience and low price levels in the first half of the year led to a scenario where interest rates initially rose and then fell, with the 10Y government bond rate fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.70% [8][9] - For the second half of the year, the GDP growth target of 5% is deemed achievable, with expectations of stable monetary policy and potential fiscal stimulus [9][10] - The report suggests a buying strategy during adjustments, with anticipated ranges for 10Y government bonds between 1.5%-1.8% and 30Y bonds between 1.7%-1.9% [10][11] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) in diabetes and weight loss, with sales of the drug Semaglutide projected to reach $29.3 billion in 2024, closely competing with another drug, K drug, at $29.5 billion [4][11] - The global market for GLP-1 RA is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, driven by expanding indications and clinical data accumulation [4][11] - The report identifies potential growth areas in the GLP-1 RA market, including fat loss and muscle gain, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations, which are seen as key future opportunities [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The GLP-1 drug market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating that the market size for GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. for diabetes and obesity could reach approximately $100 billion by 2030 [4][5]. - The report identifies three key potential growth areas within the GLP-1 sector: fat loss and muscle gain, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations [5]. Summary by Sections Part 1: GLP-1 Drug Market Outlook - The GLP-1 receptor agonists (RA) have shown strong performance in glucose control and weight loss, with the drug semaglutide projected to achieve sales of $29.3 billion in 2024, closely competing with the leading drug, K drug, which is expected to generate $29.5 billion [5][4]. - The global market for GLP-1 RAs is anticipated to reach $100 billion by 2030, driven by expanding indications and accumulating clinical data [5]. Part 2: Trend One - Opportunities in Fat Loss and Muscle Gain - GLP-1 RAs have demonstrated effectiveness in fat loss, but the issue of muscle loss needs to be addressed. Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly focusing on the fat loss and muscle gain segment, with the ActRII pathway being a hot research direction [5][4]. - Future fat loss and muscle gain drugs are expected to complement GLP-1 drugs, enhancing their market position and lifecycle [5]. Part 3: Trend Two - Oral GLP-1 Drugs - Oral formulations of GLP-1 drugs offer significant convenience over injections, improving patient compliance. Novo Nordisk leads in this area with its oral semaglutide, while Eli Lilly's Orforglipron is progressing rapidly in clinical trials [5][4]. Part 4: Trend Three - Ultra-Long-Acting GLP-1 Drugs - Ultra-long-acting GLP-1 RAs are designed to extend the duration of action and reduce dosing frequency, significantly enhancing patient adherence. Some investigational products may allow for administration every four weeks [5][4]. Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the fat loss and muscle gain segment, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations. Specific companies to watch include: - Fat loss and muscle gain: Likai Pharmaceutical - Oral formulations: Heng Rui Medicine, East China Pharmaceutical, and Galenica - Ultra-long-acting formulations: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Ganli Pharmaceutical, and Tonghua Dongbao [5].

其 他 报 告 2025年06月24日 研究分析师 : 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060520070003 研究分析师 : 陈瑶 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060524120003 研究分析师 : 任书康 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060525050001 研究助理 : 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060124070014 研究助理 : 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060124030069 核心观点 : 基金投顾组合总体情况：截至2025年5月末，上线天天基金APP的基 金投顾组合共441只，相比上月末增加11只组合；新增股债中枢型中稳健型组合5 只、进取型和货币型组合各2只、平衡型组合1只，赛道型中的科技组合1只。 投 顾组合业绩表现跟踪：股债中枢型基金，过去一年，各类中枢型组合的收益率中 位数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型组合的收益率中位 数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。与基准业绩比较，月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型、 货币型组合的收益率中位数均跑赢基准。 持仓基金仓位跟踪：稳健型投顾组合减 持主动债券基金，增持固收+基金；平衡型投顾组合减持量化基金，增持主动权 益 ...

前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 6 月 23 日 养老金融周报（2025.06.16-2025.06.22） 第二，澳大利亚未来基金改革管理架构，并对赴美投资表示担忧。6 月17 日，澳大利亚未来基金表示，他们将把澳大利亚基础设施和房地产领域的 交易与资产管理业务收归内部运营。此举主要是在未来基金自身具有更高 的交易和管理水平后，进一步提升投资管理经济性的做法。此外，未来基 金认为，特朗普为全球局势增加了新的不稳定性与不确定性。美国正在成 为一个更高风险、更不确定的投资目的地。 美国社保托管委员会呼吁进行制度改革 证券分析师 | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060516070001 | | | chenxiao397@pingan.com.cn | 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521110001 haobotao973@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 本期重点： 本周，全球养老金领域共有三项重点事件值得关注。 第一，美国称其社保信托基金（OASI Trust）将于 2034 年耗尽。6 月18 日，美国 OASDI Trust 托管委员会发布 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of floating offshore wind as a clear trend in the industry, with significant developments in the UK, South Korea, and Brazil, indicating potential investment opportunities [6][12] - The report discusses the recent release of distributed photovoltaic development guidelines in Shandong, which may introduce uncertainties in the commercial distributed photovoltaic project development [6][7] - The bankruptcy filing of the US energy storage integrator Powin reflects challenges in the domestic energy storage market, while domestic companies are better positioned to compete internationally [7] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The UK announced new floating offshore wind projects, with a total capacity of 3GW awarded to Equinor and Gwynt Glas [6][11] - The Wind Power Index decreased by 0.08% but outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.37 percentage points, with a current PE ratio of 18.8 [4][13] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain due to the positive outlook for offshore wind [7][22] Photovoltaics - Shandong's new guidelines allow commercial distributed photovoltaic systems to choose between self-consumption and grid connection, which may lead to uncertain revenue for projects [6][7] - The current PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is approximately 29.06, with specific attention on companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. [4][6] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - Powin's bankruptcy highlights the operational pressures faced by US energy storage companies, while domestic firms are expanding into international markets [7] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the energy storage sector, recommending companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Shuneng Electric [7][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The revenue of the top five enterprise SSD brands decreased in Q1 2025 due to inventory destocking and challenges in AI product assembly, with average selling prices dropping nearly 20%. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q2 2025 driven by increased demand for AI infrastructure and new chip shipments from NVIDIA [2][3]. - The Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics has made significant progress in ultra-high parallel optical computing integrated chips, which could enhance computing density and performance, paving the way for low-power, low-latency, high-performance optical computers [6][7]. - BOE Technology Group announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for a base price of 4.849 billion yuan, with the total equity valuation of Rainbow Optoelectronics estimated at 16.8 billion yuan [11][12]. Summary by Sections SSD Market Overview - The top five enterprise SSD brands experienced a significant revenue decline in Q1 2025, with Samsung, SK Group, Micron, Kioxia, and SanDisk reporting revenues of $1,889 million, $993.7 million, $852 million, $566.4 million, and $232 million respectively, reflecting quarter-over-quarter declines of 34.9%, 56.8%, 27.3%, 21.8%, and no change [4]. - The total revenue for the top five brands was $4,533.1 million, accounting for 95.1% of the market share [4]. Optical Computing Advances - The new optical computing chip system developed by the Shanghai Institute integrates multi-wavelength light sources and programmable optical computing algorithms, achieving a parallelism greater than 100 and a theoretical peak computing power of over 2560 TOPS with a power efficiency of over 3.2 TOPS/W [7]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is benefiting from a clear trend towards domestic substitution, with ongoing investments in AI terminals expected to drive a new wave of demand for chips. Recommended companies include North Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingshi, and others [25][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [19] Core Insights - Huawei held the HDC 2025 event, showcasing HarmonyOS 6, CloudMatrix384, and Pangu Model 5.5, indicating significant advancements in AI and cloud services [3][4] - Amazon's global AI survey reveals a notable increase in enterprise adoption of generative AI, with 45% of IT decision-makers prioritizing it in their 2025 budgets [6][3] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Huawei's HDC 2025 introduced HarmonyOS 6 and the CloudMatrix384 architecture, which integrates 384 Ascend NPUs and 192 Kunpeng CPUs, enhancing AI processing capabilities significantly [4] - The Pangu Model 5.5 was upgraded, featuring a new 718B deep thinking model that excels in natural language processing and knowledge reasoning [4] - Amazon's survey indicates that 90% of enterprises have begun deploying generative AI tools, reflecting a strong commitment to AI integration in business processes [6] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 1.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.45% [10] - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry is 48.7 times, with 81 stocks rising, 275 falling, and 3 remaining unchanged [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several sectors: 1. **Xinchuang Sector**: Recommended companies include Longxin Zhongke, Kingsoft Office, and Dameng Data [15] 2. **Huawei Supply Chain**: Recommended companies include Daotong Technology and Digital China [15] 3. **AI Sector**: Strong recommendations for Zhongke Chuangda and Shengshi Technology [15] 4. **Financial IT Sector**: Strong recommendation for Hengsheng Electronics [15] 5. **Low-altitude Economy**: Suggested companies include Wanfeng Aowei and Leshi Information [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% over the next six months [56]. Core Insights - The Lujiazui Financial Forum focused on financial openness and technology, with key policies aimed at enhancing the international financial center in Shanghai and promoting the internationalization of the RMB [2][19]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for public consultation on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," emphasizing the enhancement of securities firms' functional capabilities and the promotion of differentiated development for small and medium-sized institutions [2][20]. Summary by Sections Key Focus - The Lujiazui Financial Forum opened on June 18, 2025, with discussions led by prominent financial leaders, focusing on global economic changes and financial cooperation [10]. - Eight financial policies were announced to be implemented in Shanghai, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and the development of offshore trade financial services [10][19]. Industry News - The CSRC is seeking public opinion on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," which aim to enhance the functional roles of securities firms and improve their professional capabilities [20]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has approved the establishment of insurance asset management companies by AIA and Aegon in Shanghai, marking a significant step in the opening of the insurance asset management market [31]. Industry Data - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices changed by +2.63%, -1.73%, +0.27%, and +0.88% respectively this week, with the CSI 300 Index down by 0.45% [39]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 15.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10% from the previous week [48]. - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 0.24 basis points, with the yield standing at 1.640% [51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [27] Core Views - The central government has clarified standards for dining, which is expected to lead to a recovery in the liquor sector. This standard is anticipated to guide the development of consumption norms and boost the valuation of the liquor sector. Key recommendations include high-end liquor such as Kweichow Moutai, next-tier liquor like Shanxi Fenjiu, and real estate liquor brands such as Jianshiyuan and Gujinggongjiu [6][4] - The food index has shown a cumulative decline of 3.43%, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities arising from demand differentiation in consumer goods. The market is expected to gradually recover, with new demands and products emerging, particularly in the snack and beverage sectors, recommending brands like Three Squirrels and Dongpeng Beverage [6][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has a cumulative increase of 1.08%, with top performers including Huangtai Liquor (+11.41%), Jinzhongzi Liquor (+9.78%), and Yingjia Gongjiu (+7.52%). The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the liquor sector due to new consumption standards [6][7] - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor, next-tier liquor, and real estate liquor brands [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has a cumulative decline of 3.43%, with top performers being ST Jiajia (+6.93%), Huifa Food (+4.43%), and Ziyan Food (+1.49%). The report suggests that the consumer market shows resilience, with a gradual recovery expected [6][4] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the snack and beverage sectors, with recommendations for Three Squirrels, Dongpeng Beverage, and Yanjinpuzi [6][4] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, with Kweichow Moutai recommended at a PE of 20.8 for 2024, and Shanxi Fenjiu at 18.3 [26]