Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][34]. Core Insights - Recent financial reports from major Hong Kong property companies show positive signals, indicating an improvement in performance and opening up valuation upside [3]. - The core net profit of Sun Hung Kai Properties for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year increased by 16.7% year-on-year, with dividends rising by 3% [3]. - The report highlights a significant correlation between property prices and stock prices, suggesting that an increase in property prices could lead to a corresponding rise in stock prices [22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Sun Hung Kai Properties reported a revenue of HKD 52.71 billion for the first half of 2026, a 32% increase year-on-year, and a core net profit of HKD 12.21 billion, up 16.7% [9]. - Swire Properties maintained stable core net profit and dividends, with a cash reserve of HKD 532 billion, allowing for strategic land acquisitions [13]. - Hang Lung Properties saw a core net profit increase of 3.5% year-on-year, with stable dividends despite a slight decline in overall revenue [16]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the Hong Kong property market is expected to continue outperforming expectations, driven by economic recovery and population inflow [22]. - Historical data shows that property prices in Hong Kong have significant elasticity, with a potential for substantial increases following market recovery [22]. - The valuation of Sun Hung Kai Properties remains below historical highs, suggesting room for upward adjustment [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on local developers such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land, and Sino Land, as well as commercial operators like Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties for potential investment opportunities in 2026 [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% within the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the upstream sectors are favored by capital, with a focus on rigid demand segments within the consumer industry [4]. - The tourism sector shows significant growth potential, with record-high travel and spending during the Spring Festival, suggesting a robust recovery in consumer demand [8]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a recommendation to monitor leading companies that adapt quickly to market changes [4]. - The food and beverage sector, particularly alcoholic beverages, is seeing a decline in profits for many companies, but leading firms are expected to gain market share due to superior brand management [4][10]. - The report notes a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options in the food and beverage sector, with opportunities in the home dining market and dairy products [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.98% and 1.08% respectively, driven by sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [7]. - The consumer sector showed mixed performance, with agriculture, textiles, and light manufacturing outperforming the CSI 300, while retail, home appliances, food and beverage, and media sectors lagged behind [7]. Social Services - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that respond positively to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [4][8]. - The Spring Festival saw 596 million domestic trips and total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous year [8]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The report indicates that many liquor companies are experiencing deeper profit declines, but leading firms are expected to maintain or grow their market share due to strong brand management [4][10]. - The high-end liquor market remains resilient, while the mid-range segment continues to expand nationally [4]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rigid demand for consumer goods during the Spring Festival, with a trend towards healthier gift options [4][22]. - Companies like Guoquan are noted for their strong market position in the home dining segment, with ongoing expansion plans [4]. Media - The 2026 Spring Festival box office totaled 5.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 39.5%, indicating challenges in the media sector [14]. - The report suggests that the media industry is facing significant headwinds, particularly in ticket sales and audience engagement [14].

陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 研究助理 靳旭媛 一般从业资格编号 ：S1060124070018 2026 年 3 月 1 日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 A股策略周报： 布局"两会"窗口 证券分析师 1 ※ 核心观点|布局"两会"窗口 2 • 上周亚太股市、贵金属表现较好。上周美国PPI超预期攀升、关税扰动、地缘冲突持续压降风险偏好，金银等贵金属继续领涨，美股三大 股指下跌0%-2%，日韩股市在AI产业带动下表现靠前，A股节后资金交投活跃度上行，多数股指收涨，小盘红利风格表现占优，结构上， 钢铁、有色金属、基础化工等周期板块领涨，培育钻石、稀有金属精选、锗镓锑墨、稀土等概念表现靠前。另外，节后人民币汇率持续走 强，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率均升破6.87，创近三年新高，在此之下央行下调远期售汇风险准备金率，释放外汇政策回归中性信号。 • 海外方面，美国PPI攀升强化高利率预期，关税扰动、地缘冲突继续压降风险偏好。一是美国PPI升幅超预期。美国1月PPI同比升2.9%， 环比升0.5%，核心PPI同比升3.6%，环比升0.8%，均高于预期值，强化美联储维持高利率预期。二是 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights positive signals from quality Hong Kong property companies, with New World Development showing revenue growth of 32% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 36.2% for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year. The core net profit, excluding fair value changes of investment properties, grew by 16.7% [3] - The report emphasizes that Hong Kong's real estate market is recovering, with a decrease in impairment provisions and a reduction in the fair value change of investment properties, indicating a positive trend in the market [3] - The report suggests that there is still room for price appreciation in Hong Kong property stocks, particularly for companies like New World Development, which has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.68, lower than its peers [3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - New World Development's interim dividend increased by 3% to HKD 0.98 per share, reflecting a strong financial position [3] - The company has successfully acquired multiple land parcels, positioning itself to benefit from the recovery in the Hong Kong property market [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Companies with light historical burdens and strong land acquisition capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [3] 2. Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market stabilization, including New World Development and Henderson Land [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Poly Property [3] Market Monitoring - The report notes a significant increase in new home transactions in key cities, with a 428.8% week-on-week rise in new home sales [3] - Inventory levels have decreased slightly, with a current de-stocking cycle of 20.9 months, indicating a potential improvement in market conditions [3] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.6% increase in stock prices, underperforming the broader market [3] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the real estate sector is 65.75, significantly higher than the broader market's 14.13, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, may lead to a sharp increase in oil prices in the short term. Recent data shows WTI crude futures rose by 1.31% and Brent crude futures by 1.17% from February 20 to February 27, 2026. The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including military actions, have heightened the risk of oil price volatility [6][7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, supply constraints due to production quotas combined with favorable demand driven by policy support are expected to sustain high levels of market activity. The production quota for HFCs in 2026 has been set at 797,845 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons year-on-year, which is likely to support prices [6][7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a potential for significant oil price increases due to geopolitical tensions. The report notes that the likelihood of prolonged conflict is low, but prices may spike before a potential drop [6][7]. - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong production capabilities and cost advantages, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, as they are well-positioned to navigate the volatile market [7]. Fluorochemicals - The report highlights that the high demand for refrigerants, particularly R32 and R134a, is expected to continue due to policy support and supply constraints. The production quota adjustments for HFCs are anticipated to improve the supply-demand balance in the market [6][7]. - Companies leading in the production of third-generation refrigerants, such as Juhua Group and Sanmei Co., are recommended for investment consideration [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions. The report emphasizes the potential for further price increases driven by domestic substitution and cyclical recovery [7]. - Companies like Shanghai XinYang and Nanda Optoelectronics are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [7].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction during the Spring Festival was relatively stable, with a 9.1% decrease in average daily transactions compared to the previous year in 12 comparable cities from February 15 to February 22. In contrast, the second-hand housing market in core cities saw a significant increase, with a 39.1% growth in transaction volume during the same period [2][12] - The report suggests that the post-holiday market direction will be crucial for the short-term performance of the sector. Given the early release of performance pressure from real estate companies and the continuous positive signals from policies, high-quality real estate companies still possess investment value [2] - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: 1. Companies with lighter historical burdens, optimized inventory structures, and strong land acquisition and product capabilities, such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group, and others [2] 2. Hong Kong real estate companies benefiting from the stabilization of the Hong Kong market, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [2] 3. Companies with stable net cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [2] Policy Summary - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, which helps reduce storage costs. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans has been reduced to 30%, facilitating the inventory clearance of commercial properties [3][6] - Multiple regions have followed suit in adjusting the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%, with Shanghai initiating the acquisition of second-hand housing for guaranteed rental housing [6][7] Market Performance - The real estate sector index rose by 4.3% in January, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.65%. As of February 24, 2026, the current PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 65.5 times, significantly higher than the 14.15 times of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, indicating a valuation at the 96.63 percentile over the past five years [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Stronger than the market" (It is expected that the industry index will outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [109] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the low - interest - rate era, the demand for asset - allocation products is rising, and FOF is gradually moving towards multi - asset allocation strategies. The multi - asset allocation of FOF has shown different performance in different risk - level portfolios and has certain advantages compared with some traditional funds [3] - Different types of FOF managers have their own unique multi - asset allocation management styles, which can achieve relatively stable returns and risk control [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Background: Low - interest - rate Era FOF Multi - asset Allocation Breakthrough - **Macro Background**: The continuous decline in interest rates has increased the demand for asset - allocation products. In 2025, the scale of partial - debt hybrid FOF increased by 176%. Newly issued products strengthen the multi - asset allocation attribute through the explicit "multi - asset" label [3][6] - **Configuration Pattern**: More and more FOFs include gold, commodities, Hong Kong stock indexes, and global stock indexes in their benchmarks. As of the end of 2025, there were 160 FOF products with Hong Kong stock indexes, 19 with overseas stock indexes, and 73 with commodity (including gold) indexes in their performance comparison benchmarks. From the perspective of actual positions, FOFs cover nine major categories of assets outside of A - shares and domestic bonds [12][18] - **Configuration Process**: The industry's participation in multi - asset allocation has significantly increased, and multi - asset allocation has gradually become the consensus of FOF managers. As of the 2025 semi - annual report, the proportion of multi - asset allocation considering Hong Kong stocks reached 13.55%, and that without considering Hong Kong stocks reached 9.13% [19] - **Configuration Status**: Currently, FOF multi - asset allocation mainly participates with low positions, and it will take time to progress from "tactical trial" to "strategic standard" [23] 3.2 Assets: From Traditional Stocks and Bonds to All - type Investment Products - **Hong Kong Stock Funds**: Hong Kong stock assets are the preferred choice for FOF multi - asset allocation. Managers' positions are concentrated in Hong Kong stock technology index and dividend - type index strategies. ETFs have become the mainstream vehicle for FOF to allocate Hong Kong stocks [30] - **QDII Stock Funds**: The high - concentration holding of US stock broad - based ETFs shows that FOF funds aim to obtain the long - term beta of mature markets. There are also signs of diversification in regional allocation [35] - **QDII Hybrid Funds**: The configuration logic of active - management QDII funds is to capture the comparative advantages in the global industrial chain [36] - **QDII Bond Funds**: Asian US dollar bonds are the main objects of FOF overseas fixed - income allocation [41] - **Commodity Funds**: The allocation of gold assets shows high strategic consistency, and gold is the primary choice for FOF to diversify underlying asset types. Other commodity funds are also widely included [49] - **Market Neutral Funds**: Market neutral funds have low volatility and better drawdown control ability, which are important tools for smoothing the portfolio net value curve [50] - **Mutual Recognition Funds**: Hong Kong mutual recognition funds effectively fill the configuration gap when QDII quotas are scarce and are an important supplement for FOF to allocate overseas fixed - income assets [54] - **REITs**: REITs are gradually being included in the "fixed - income +" configuration category by FOF due to their mandatory dividend characteristics and physical attributes of underlying assets [60] 3.3 Performance: Incremental Contribution of Multi - asset Allocation - **Comparison with Traditional Stock - Bond FOF**: - **Robust FOF**: Since 2024, robust multi - asset FOF has shown higher cumulative returns and better risk - adjusted performance, with overall investment efficiency superior to traditional stock - bond FOF [65][68] - **Balanced FOF**: Since 2024, there has been no significant difference between balanced multi - asset FOF and traditional stock - bond FOF in terms of return performance and risk - adjusted indicators [71] - **Aggressive FOF**: Since 2024, aggressive multi - asset FOF has shown high synchronization with traditional stock - bond FOF, and multi - asset allocation has not formed a stable risk - return advantage at this risk level [74] - **Comparison with Other Funds**: - **Compared with Hybrid Secondary Bond Funds**: Robust multi - asset FOF has a higher return level per unit of risk than hybrid secondary bond funds, showing better risk - return efficiency [78] - **Compared with Flexible Allocation Funds**: Balanced and aggressive multi - asset FOF still shows certain risk - return efficiency advantages, but the advantage is relatively limited [82] 3.4 Case: Practical Atlas of High - performing Managers - **Tang Jun**: He adheres to the multi - asset allocation framework for a long time and clearly incorporates the timing of major asset classes. His robust products can control drawdowns and continuously accumulate excess returns [85][88] - **Cao Jianwen**: He gradually transitions from traditional stock - bond allocation to a multi - asset framework, expands the source of portfolio returns by introducing commodities and overseas assets, and strengthens the timing of risk assets. The performance of his products has improved marginally after the transformation [90][92] - **Li Xiaoyi**: His multi - asset framework focuses on steady - state diversification and long - term structural optimization. He switches from active to passive in traditional stocks and bonds and enriches the defensive layer configuration through low - volatility assets such as QDII bond funds, mutual recognition funds, and REITs [95][97] - **Lin Guohuai**: He constructs the portfolio with a multi - asset index as the core benchmark, practices global multi - asset allocation in the strategic level, and balances high - equity offensiveness and cross - market diversification [100][103]

Travel Trends - Daily average cross-regional personnel flow reached 260 million, a 6.1% increase compared to last year, and a 28.7% increase compared to 2019[4] - During the 9-day Spring Festival holiday, the total cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 2.8 billion, with a daily average of 311 million, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth[4] - The Baidu migration index increased by 33.3% during the Spring Festival holiday compared to the previous year, indicating a strong travel trend[11] Consumer Spending - Domestic tourism revenue reached 803.48 billion CNY, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, with 596 million domestic trips taken, marking a 5.7% increase[15] - Key retail and catering enterprises saw sales increase by 5.2% compared to last year, surpassing the 4.1% growth during the 2025 Spring Festival[23] - Daily average sales in consumption-related industries grew by 13.7% compared to last year, significantly higher than the 4.5% growth during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival[26] Real Estate Sales - New home sales in 30 major cities averaged 12,000 square meters per day during the Spring Festival, a 15.9% increase compared to last year[34] - Sales in first-tier cities doubled compared to the same period last year, indicating a stronger recovery in the real estate market[34] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient implementation of growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and possible biases in high-frequency data extrapolation[36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent optimization of real estate policies in Shanghai, which is expected to positively impact the market. Key changes include adjustments to purchasing conditions for non-local residents, an increase in the maximum public housing loan amount, and tax exemptions for certain families [6][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market trends post-holiday, suggesting that quality real estate companies may present investment opportunities due to their strong inventory structure and product capabilities [6][5]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - Shanghai has implemented several policy optimizations, including: 1. Non-local residents can purchase additional properties under certain conditions, such as having a social security or tax payment history of one year for properties within the outer ring [6]. 2. Public housing loan policies have been adjusted, with the maximum loan amount increased from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, and additional benefits for families with multiple children [6]. 3. A temporary exemption from personal property tax for families with only one home starting January 1, 2026 [6]. Market Performance - The report notes that the number of second-hand home transactions in Shanghai has remained stable, with monthly sales exceeding 22,000 units from November 2025 to January 2026. This stability is expected to improve short-term market conditions [6]. - The report also mentions that the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 12 comparable cities decreased by 9.1% during the Spring Festival compared to the previous year, while the transaction volume for second-hand homes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 39.1% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market may have already priced in concerns regarding sales and performance, indicating that certain quality companies may have long-term investment value. Companies such as China Resources Land and Jianfa are highlighted for their strong land acquisition and product capabilities [6][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expectation that the industry index will perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday, lasting 9 days, led to a significant increase in domestic travel, with 596 million trips taken and total spending reaching 803.48 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% in trips and 18.7% in spending [4][7]. - The travel market is experiencing a shift towards experiential consumption, with a notable rise in "return home" trips and "reverse New Year" travel, particularly in central and western cities, where hotel bookings saw over 100% year-on-year growth [6][10]. - Major tourist cities showed strong performance, with Beijing receiving 19.84 million visitors and generating 33.14 billion yuan in tourism revenue, while Shanghai welcomed 21.67 million visitors with a revenue of 25.61 billion yuan, both reflecting significant year-on-year growth [9]. Summary by Sections Travel Trends - The Spring Festival holiday saw a record high in travel and spending, with 5.96 billion trips and 803.48 billion yuan spent, up from 5.01 billion trips and 676.67 billion yuan in 2025 [4][7]. - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.45 million, a 7.3% increase from 2025, with average ticket prices rising by 6.6% [7][10]. Regional Performance - Key regions such as Guangdong, Hainan, and Beijing reported substantial increases in tourist numbers and spending, with Hainan's duty-free sales growing by 30.8% to 2.72 billion yuan [9][10]. - The trend of "return home" travel has become prominent, with significant growth in hotel bookings in central and western cities, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards local experiences [6][8]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the travel sector will continue to thrive, driven by strong consumer demand and the ability of leading travel companies to adapt to changing preferences [10].