Group 1: Industry Overview - The computer industry has shown steady revenue growth and improved profit margins, with total revenue reaching 939.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [11] - The software development sub-industry has seen significant profit improvements, while the computer equipment sub-industry remains relatively high in terms of market sentiment [11] - The industry has experienced a volatile upward trend since the beginning of 2025, with the computer industry index rising by 18.54% as of November 28, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points [18] Group 2: Algorithm and Applications - The global landscape of large models is rapidly evolving, with significant competition among closed-source models from companies like Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI, while domestic open-source models like Kimi K2 and MiniMax-M2 maintain a leading position [27][30] - The focus of large model applications is shifting towards programming, enterprise services, and office productivity tools, indicating a convergence in the market [42] - The integration of multi-modal capabilities and AI agents is becoming a competitive focal point in the large model market, expanding the boundaries of model tasks [32][34] Group 3: Computing Power - The AI computing power market is experiencing high demand, with the global AI server market projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2028, while China's market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30.6% during the same period [10] - The domestic AI computing power chip industry is poised for growth due to strong policy support and increasing downstream demand, with a clear trend towards self-sufficiency [10][22] Group 4: Intelligent Driving - The penetration rate of Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) features is increasing, indicating a rapid commercialization of the intelligent driving industry in China, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - Major players like Tesla and Xpeng are advancing their intelligent driving technologies, with significant updates and new model releases enhancing their market positions [4][5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the computer industry, highlighting investment opportunities in AI computing power, algorithms, and intelligent driving sectors [5] - Specific stock recommendations include companies like Zhongke Chuangda, Haiguang Information, and Industrial Fulian in the AI computing power segment, and companies like Daotong Technology and Kingsoft Office in the AI algorithm and application space [5][6]

Industrial Sector - The production of raw materials has shown seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[2] - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt and cement clinker has decreased, while the float glass operating rate has increased[2] - The operating rates for polyester in textiles and weaving have weakened seasonally, while the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires in the automotive sector have increased[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 34.7% year-on-year as of December 12, with a slight improvement of 1.0 percentage point compared to last week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.60% month-on-month as of December 1, indicating a narrowing decline[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with an average daily income of 171.45 million yuan, up 192.3% year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 22.5% year-on-year as of December 5, but improved by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] - The number of domestic flights increased by 2.1% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 17.2% year-on-year[2] External Demand - The export container freight index increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo's export container freight rates rising more rapidly[2] - Port cargo throughput grew by 2.9% year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 9.5% year-on-year[2] Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 2.4%, with black raw material prices down by 2.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up by 0.5%[2] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products rose by 1.0% week-on-week, continuing to outperform the same period last year[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Iraq has restored production at the West Qurna 2 oil field, raising concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. WTI crude futures fell by 4.33% and Brent crude futures by 4.13% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions continue, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil prices [6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [6]. - In the fluorochemical sector, the 2026 refrigerant quotas are expected to increase, with downstream demand in home appliances likely to continue due to government subsidies [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Iraq's oil production has returned to approximately 460,000 barrels per day, and U.S. refinery utilization rates have increased following seasonal maintenance [6][7]. - The report suggests that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources to mitigate sensitivity to international oil price fluctuations [7]. Fluorochemicals - The 2026 HFC production quota has been announced, totaling 797,845 tons, which is an increase of 5,963 tons from the previous year. Notable increases include HFC-134a by 3,242 tons and HFC-245fa by 2,918 tons [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by government policies and subsidies, particularly in the automotive sector [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the oil and petrochemical, fluorochemical, and semiconductor materials sectors. It highlights the resilience of major oil companies in the face of price volatility and suggests monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted for its upward cycle and potential for domestic substitution, with specific companies suggested for consideration [7].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the necessity of lowering mortgage rates to enhance home buying attractiveness, with a focus on potential market stabilization in the second half of 2026 to 2027 [4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming annual report season in March and April 2026, where companies with strong inventory structure and product capabilities are expected to benefit [4] - The report expresses optimism regarding Hong Kong real estate investment opportunities in 2026, following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [4] Summary by Sections Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 18,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 6.2%, while second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities also increased by 4.6% [11] - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory in 16 cities was 91.77 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 22.5 months [14] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a decline of 2.62% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [26] - The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 59.07 times, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13.91 times, indicating a valuation at the 94.33 percentile over the past five years [26] Key Company Insights - China Overseas Development is highlighted as a leading central enterprise with a low valuation of 0.34 times PB and a dividend yield of 4.3% [6] - China Resources Land is noted for its stable dividend policy, maintaining around 10 billion RMB in dividends from 2021 to 2024, with a current dividend yield of 5.1% [6] - Other companies such as Country Garden, Greentown China, and China Merchants Shekou are also recommended based on their strong operational capabilities and market positioning [6]

Market Review - The MAGA policy framework has been established, leading to a rise in gold and a decline in the US dollar. In 2025, the Trump administration strongly promoted the "America First" policy, resulting in increased volatility in global capital markets, with gold leading the gains and the dollar weakening. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 17% and 22% respectively, while the dollar index fell by 8.8% throughout the year [3][9][10]. US Market - The US economy is expected to grow moderately in 2026, supported by both investment and consumption. The impact of previous tariffs is diminishing, and fiscal and monetary policies are showing effects. AI-related investments are anticipated to continue their strong momentum, while consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [3][4][9]. - Inflation remains sticky, with limited room for interest rate cuts. The expected range for rate cuts in 2026 is between 25-50 basis points, influenced by resilient wage growth and economic recovery [3][4][9]. - The political landscape, particularly the midterm elections, is likely to maintain a moderate policy tone, balancing economic stimulus with inflation control to create a favorable socio-economic environment [3][4][9]. US Stock Market - The US stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the AI narrative and recovery in cyclical and consumer sectors. Key investment opportunities include AI-related industries, which are still in the early stages of a potential bubble, and sectors benefiting from the "Great Beautiful Act" [3][4][9]. - The manufacturing and information sectors are projected to be the main beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts, while cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to recover as the economy stabilizes [3][4][9]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with structural opportunities emerging. The earnings growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automotive parts, and discretionary consumption is expected to improve significantly in 2026 [3][4][9]. - The liquidity environment is characterized by a decline in US Treasury yields, with foreign capital continuing to flow into the market. The strategic stability in US-China relations is likely to support risk appetite [3][4][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [57] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4329.8 per ounce, a 2.42% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.3% increase to 1053 tons. The Fed's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% is expected to support gold prices in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4] - Industrial Metals: The fundamentals for copper are tightening, and there is an optimistic outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, the SHFE copper futures contract rose 1.4% to 94080 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 163,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. The LME copper inventory stood at 165,900 tons. The tightening supply of copper is expected to drive prices higher [5][6] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum futures contract fell 0.9% to $2875 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain stable [6] - Tin: The SHFE tin futures contract increased by 4.9% to 333,000 yuan/ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and export regulations in Indonesia are expected to tighten the market further [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on the long-term investment in gold [4][5] Industrial Metals - Copper: The market is experiencing tightening supply, with a recommendation to focus on the copper sector due to expected price increases [6] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to maintain high levels of volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Tin: Supply constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to potential price increases [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Recommended stock is Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Copper: Recommended stock is Luoyang Molybdenum - Aluminum: Recommended stock is Tianshan Aluminum [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for patience in asset allocation as the A-share market experiences mixed performance, with technology sectors outperforming [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and dovish signals have influenced market sentiment, while concerns over AI bubbles have led to declines in major US indices [2] - Domestic economic indicators show resilience in exports and improvements in prices, with the Central Economic Work Conference setting a clear policy direction for 2025 [2] Recent Developments - November export growth rebounded to 5.9% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.9% [3][5] - Key export products such as automobiles and integrated circuits saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 53% and 34% respectively [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) maintained positive month-on-month growth [5][6] Financial Data - Social financing in November showed a year-on-year increase, with a total of 1,597 billion yuan added, although credit growth remained weak [7][8] - The report highlights a decline in new RMB loans, with a decrease of 1,163 billion yuan in November [7] Policy Tracking - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation, focusing on stabilizing the economy and enhancing domestic demand [10] - Key tasks include promoting technological innovation, green transformation, and stabilizing the real estate market [10] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74% [11] - The report notes that sectors such as communication, defense, and electronics led the market gains, reflecting a shift towards technology-driven growth [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the development of urban and rural resident income plans, which are expected to enhance the performance and valuation recovery of the consumer sector [3][9]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with leading companies like Trip.com Group and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can adapt to market changes and integrate products, brands, and channels effectively [3]. - The sports and outdoor apparel sector is expected to benefit from policy support, presenting investment opportunities in leading brands with market share growth potential [3]. - The media sector should focus on niche markets related to consumer sentiment, which may provide opportunities for companies with strong performance certainty [3]. - In the food and beverage sector, leading companies are expected to maintain market share through effective brand management, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [3]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The industry is evolving, with a focus on companies that actively respond to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [3][8]. Macro Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [9]. Industry Dynamics - Disney's investment in OpenAI and its strategy to control fan engagement through authorized channels reflects a significant trend in the media industry [10]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The majority of liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3][19]. - The high-end liquor segment remains resilient, with leading brands expected to enhance their market positions [3][20]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3][25]. Home Appliances - The electric two-wheeler industry faced a significant decline in production and sales in November 2025, indicating challenges in consumer demand [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [18] Core Viewpoints - The launch of AutoGLM by Zhiyu is expected to accelerate the development of the AI Agent mobile ecosystem, providing a public foundation for the industry to collaboratively enhance AI capabilities [3][4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for innovation-driven growth and the urgent cultivation of new economic drivers, highlighting the importance of AI and technology innovation [7] - The competition in the global AI large model sector remains intense, which is likely to drive the widespread application of large models and sustain high demand in the AI computing market [14] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Zhiyu announced the open-source release of AutoGLM on December 9, which includes a trained core model, Phone Use capability framework, demo covering over 50 high-frequency Chinese apps, and documentation for quick onboarding [3][5] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 highlighted the urgency of fostering new economic drivers, with specific tasks including enhancing education and technology talent development, establishing international technology innovation centers, and improving AI governance [7] Company Announcements - Boshi Software announced the acquisition of a 38% stake in Fujian Shucun Technology Development Co., Ltd. for a total price of 17.77 million yuan [8] - Haiguang Information announced the termination of a major asset restructuring plan due to unfavorable market conditions [8] - Zhiyuan Huitong elected a new chairman and appointed senior management [8] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 1.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.08% [9] - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry is 53.2 times, with 107 out of 360 A-share component stocks rising, 250 falling, and 2 suspended [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI computing stocks such as Haiguang Information, Industrial Fulian, and Inspur Information, and strongly recommends AI algorithm and application companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Chuangda [14]

债券 2026 年美元债与汇率年度策略 共振与修复 证券分析师 平安观点： 债 券 报 告 债 券 年 度 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 liulu979@ pingan.com.cn 王佳萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525070002 wangjiameng709@pingan.com.cn 市场回顾：美债利率整体下行，期限利差走阔。25 年全年来看，美债利率整 体震荡下行，期限利差走阔。Q1，受到政府削减支出、关税不确定性影响， 软数据走弱、衰退交易升温；Q2 关税落地暂缓、贸易谈判开启，风险情绪 改善；Q3，非农就业明显走弱而通胀温和，美联储重启降息；Q4，美国政 府停摆、叠加降息预期波折，风险资产承压，美债利率低位震荡。信用利差 方面，投资级中资美元债利差全年整体压缩，美国美元债信用利差则整体震 荡。 利率策略：经济温和修复，利率或保持宽幅震荡。我们预计明年在美联储降 息、财政宽松、AI 资本支出持续、贸易不确定性下降的背景下，美国经济可 能较今年温和修复；同时通胀由于关税影响消退而边际回落。节奏上，预计 上 ...