Market Performance - During the National Day holiday (September 29 to October 6), the MSCI Global Index rose by 1.96%, with the Nikkei 225 leading at a significant increase of 5.7% due to the election of a pro-active fiscal policy advocate[2] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 indices increased by 1.0%, 2.0%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively during the same period[2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw increases of 3.2% and 5.7% respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment[2] Economic Indicators - In September, the ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000[7] - The unemployment rate remained low, with August job vacancies slightly higher at 7,227 thousand, indicating a still sluggish hiring environment[7] - The ISM and Markit service sector PMIs both declined, while the ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly, indicating mixed economic signals[7] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, with approximately 40% of federal employees facing mandatory unpaid leave, while 60% of essential workers continued operations[11] - Historical data shows that during previous government shutdowns, the S&P 500 index averaged a gain of 1.0%, with only three instances of slight declines[9] - The market anticipates a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, reflecting stable expectations despite the shutdown[11] Commodity and Currency Movements - The COMEX gold price increased by 5.13%, while ICE Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.80% due to OPEC's continued production increases[2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.09% to 98.10, indicating a slight weakening of the dollar against other currencies[20] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Focus on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors (AI, internet, semiconductors), industries with improving economic conditions (new energy, building materials), and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [29] Core Insights - The report highlights the integration of AI in the payment industry, focusing on enhancing merchant operations and creating new business opportunities through innovative AI products [2][3][27] - Companies like Newland, Lakala, Newland Digital, Lianlian Digital, and Yika are actively developing AI applications tailored for small and medium-sized merchants, digital employees, and e-commerce [3][27] - The report emphasizes that AI technology can help payment companies differentiate themselves in a competitive landscape and improve service quality, thereby increasing customer value and loyalty [27] Summary by Sections AI Applications in Payment Industry - Newland has launched multiple AI products and formed a strategic partnership with Alibaba Cloud to enhance its digital business strategy, serving over 4.8 million active merchants by mid-2025 [2][7] - Lakala has introduced AI Wallet 2.0, providing nearly 100 commercial functions and serving around 800 million registered users, with 1.5 million monthly active users [9][11] - Newland Digital has customized AI "digital employee" products for B-end clients and launched AIGC applications in overseas markets, achieving significant profits [12][14] - Lianlian Digital has integrated generative AI capabilities into its LOOP AI application to optimize cross-border e-commerce operations [18] - Yika has developed the WinsFor platform to enhance in-store e-commerce marketing, achieving a 40% month-on-month increase in transaction volume by mid-2025 [20][21] R&D Investment Trends - The overall R&D investment among selected payment companies has shown stable growth, with year-on-year increases of 3.3%, 3.9%, and 2.2% for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [22][24] - The R&D expense ratio for these companies has remained stable between 7% and 9% from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with an overall ratio of 8.1% in the first half of 2025 [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that actively embrace AI technology, including Newland, Newland Digital, Lakala, Lianlian Digital, and Yika, as they are expected to benefit from enhanced service quality and competitive differentiation [27]

Travel Trends - During the National Day holiday, the average daily cross-regional passenger flow reached 305 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% compared to 2024, slightly lower than the 7.9% growth during the May Day holiday[4] - Subway passenger volume in four first-tier cities decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, while 20 second-tier cities saw a decline of 2.5%[7] - The Baidu migration index increased by 20% year-on-year, surpassing the 7.5% growth rate observed in September[10] - Daily average inbound and outbound travelers are expected to exceed 2 million, up from 1.871 million last year[11] Consumption Insights - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 3.3% year-on-year increase in sales during the first four days of the holiday[13] - Major e-commerce platforms saw energy-efficient home appliances grow by 19%, with smart refrigerators and home products increasing by 20.7% and 16.8%, respectively[13] - Movie box office revenue for the first seven days of the holiday was approximately 1.73 billion yuan, down 18.1% from the previous year, with daily average attendance decreasing by 9.8%[14] Real Estate Performance - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a daily average transaction area decline of 12.7% year-on-year during the holiday, contrasting with a 7.7% increase in September[18] - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 252.78 billion yuan in September, marking a 0.4% year-on-year increase[18] Freight Dynamics - Port cargo throughput maintained a growth rate of approximately 7.8% year-on-year, with container throughput growing by 6.9%[20] - Highway freight traffic increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while railway freight volume saw a decline to 1.6%[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underwhelming growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[23]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on growth and large-cap stocks for October's asset allocation [2][71] - In September, both A-shares and US stocks experienced an upward trend, with the issuance scale of funds increasing and mixed equity funds performing well [2][31] - The report highlights that the market sentiment index for A-shares shows a slight decline but remains in the optimistic range, suggesting a continued preference for equity assets [2][53] Group 2 - The growth value style rotation model indicates favorable conditions for growth stocks, supported by market factors and declining US Treasury yields [2][60] - The large-cap style rotation model recommends a focus on large-cap stocks due to the current credit and monetary environment [2][65] - The report suggests maintaining a high allocation to equity assets, particularly in growth and large-cap styles, while also considering stable fixed-income products [2][71][70] Group 3 - The report notes that the fund market performed well in September, with a total issuance scale of 160.8 billion yuan, a 58% increase from the previous month [31] - It emphasizes that active equity funds have increased their positions in dividend, quality, and value potential styles while reducing exposure to cyclical styles [38] - The report provides specific fund recommendations, including East Wu Mobile Internet and China Europe Advanced Manufacturing, which focus on technology and new energy sectors respectively [70][76]

Report Information - Report Title: [Ping An Securities] 2025 Interest Rate Bond Quarterly Report: Opportunities and Risks in the Bond Market under Multiple Challenges [1] - Release Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liu Lu, Zheng Zichen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the Market (Expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [94] Core Views - The bond market entered a headwind period in Q3 due to multiple factors, with a bearish steepening of the yield curve, a decline in the inter - bank leverage ratio, a reduction in the duration of asset management accounts, and a certain demand maintained by allocation accounts [2]. - The necessity of stabilizing growth is increasing in Q4. Policy measures may include interest rate cuts of 10BP, reserve requirement ratio cuts of 25BP, restarting bond purchases, and fiscal stimulus leading to a year - on - year increase of over 1 trillion yuan in Q4 [3]. - There are trading opportunities for bonds with maturities within 10 years in Q4, while ultra - long bonds face repricing risks [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: Domestic Bond Yields Reach New Highs - **Multiple Negative Factors Lead to Q3 Bond Market Adjustment**: In June, "anti - involution" drove up commodity prices; in July, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points; in August - September, policy adjustments such as the readjustment of VAT on treasury bond interest and concerns about the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for public funds led to bond fund redemptions and rising interest rates [2][6]. - **Deviation from Fundamentals and Funds, Dominated by Sentiment and Institutional Behavior**: The adjustment deviated from fundamentals and funds, with stable funds and a marginal decline in fundamentals in July - August. Market sentiment and institutional behavior played a dominant role [8]. - **Market Leverage Declines, Asset Management Accounts Reduce Positions, Allocation Accounts Maintain Demand**: During the market adjustment, institutions tended to reduce leverage, asset management accounts reduced positions, and allocation accounts supported the market [11]. - **Performance of Different Bond Types**: Short - term treasury bonds were relatively resistant to decline due to large - bank purchases; credit bonds weakened as fund and wealth management demand declined; ultra - long bonds performed weakly, with increased supply exceeding demand from insurance and rural commercial banks. There was also a global resonance of rising ultra - long bond yields [2][17][19][26]. PART2: The Necessity of Stabilizing Growth Increases in Q4 - **Policy Support Needed to Achieve the Annual Growth Target**: To achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5%, Q4 requires stronger stabilizing - growth policies than in 2022 - 2023 but weaker than in 2024. Without additional policies, government bond net financing in Q4 is expected to be about 1 trillion less year - on - year [3][46]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Tools**: Fiscal policy may involve policy - based development financial tools of about 500 billion yuan and the possible early issuance of 2 trillion special refinancing bonds in 2026. Monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with no obvious constraints on marginal easing [51]. - **Policy Implementation Timing**: Short - term bond purchases by the central bank are more likely, while reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are more likely to occur at the end of the year, perhaps to align with the December Central Economic Work Conference [52]. - **Central Bank Bond Purchase Maturity**: Based on institutional behavior, the central bank's bond purchases may be extended to within 5 - year maturities [57]. PART3: Bond Market Strategies - **Trading Opportunities for Bonds within 10 Years**: Leading indicators such as social financing and M1 growth are approaching a phased peak. In terms of valuation, 10 - year treasury bonds are relatively cheap compared to listed companies' ROIC and are close to the upper limit of the interest rate corridor. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by 17BP, fully pricing in the current stabilizing - growth policies but not pricing in potential monetary policy benefits [4][64][71]. - **Repricing Risks for Ultra - long Bonds**: Ultra - long bonds may face repricing risks. Based on calculations, the current ultra - long bond yields may have fully priced in inflation improvement. The potential risks include continuous stabilizing - growth policies and global fiscal expansion [80]. - **Short - term Market Contradictions and Strategies**: Short - term market contradictions lie in institutional behavior and sentiment. It is recommended to focus on short - term treasury bonds within 5 years and certificates of deposit in the short term and participate in duration - offensive bonds after negative factors are realized [87].

Group 1: Profit Overview - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[2] - In August 2025, industrial enterprise profits grew by 20.4% year-on-year, an increase of 21.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in August was 5.83%, up by 0.90 percentage points year-on-year[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Raw materials manufacturing profits increased by 22.1%, a 10 percentage point rise from the previous month, driven by price recovery[2] - Consumer goods manufacturing profits shifted from a decline of 2.2% to a growth of 1.4%, mainly supported by the beverage and paper industries[2] - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 7.2%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The growth rates of industrial enterprise assets and liabilities were 5.0% and 5.4%, respectively, both showing an increase from the previous month[2] - The inventory of finished products increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Accounts receivable growth declined to 6.6%, marking a continuous decrease for five months[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include the potential ineffectiveness of growth stabilization policies, overseas economic recession, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[7] - The report recommends a strong buy rating for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[8]

Group 1 - Germany proposes a pension crisis solution by providing a monthly payment of 10 euros to children aged 6-18 starting from January 1, 2026, aimed at fostering early savings and investment habits for retirement [6][7][9] - The initiative is expected to cost approximately 15 trillion euros annually for public finances, as it aims to address the increasing social expenditure due to an aging population and economic stagnation [6][7] - Currently, only 17% of German households own stocks, compared to 40% in the UK and over 60% in the US, highlighting a need for increased financial literacy among the younger population [7] Group 2 - In the US, the Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) market has seen a decline, with sales dropping to nearly 11.5 billion dollars in Q2 2025, a 56% year-on-year decrease [2][8] - The PRT market is expected to recover in the latter half of 2025, but the total sales for the year may still fall below the average of 2024 [2][8] - The number of companies involved in PRT transactions has doubled over the past decade, indicating a growing interest in transferring pension liabilities to insurance companies [10] Group 3 - Norway's sovereign wealth fund announced a 1.5 billion dollar investment in Brookfield's Global Transition Fund II, focusing on renewable energy infrastructure and low-carbon technology projects [11] - The investment aligns with Norway's strategy to participate in sustainable energy project development and support the transition to a net-zero economy [11] Group 4 - The Canadian pension funds are actively investing in energy transition, with La Caisse acquiring Edify Energy for approximately 1 billion Canadian dollars to expand its renewable energy portfolio [26] - The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP) is leading a consortium to acquire a 13% stake in Sempra Infrastructure for about 3 billion dollars, emphasizing the importance of natural gas in the global energy transition [27][28]

请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 阿里云发布多项AI创新成果， 我国AI产业发展势头良好 计算机行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所计算机团队 分析师： 闫磊 S1060517070006（证券投资咨询）YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 黄韦涵 S1060523070003（证券投资咨询）HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 2025年9月29日 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评：1）阿里云发布多项AI创新成果，我国AI产业发展势头良好。9月24日，2025云栖大会在浙江省杭州市云栖小镇举行。 阿里云在2025云栖大会发布多项AI创新成果，Qwen3-Max大语言模型全球领先。我国国产大模型持续迭代，能力持续提升。阿里云宣布正 在积极推进三年3800亿的AI基础设施建设计划，并将会持续追加更大的投入。另外，我国AI产业正加强生态合作，DeepSeek-V3.1与国产 AI芯片的协同进一步加深。我国AI产业发展势头良好。2）英伟达和OpenAI宣布达成合作，全球AI产业生态合作加深。当地时间周一（9 月22日），英伟达和OpenAI宣布达成合作，包括建设庞大数据中心计划，以及英 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations before the holiday, with technology and large-cap defensive styles showing phase-specific performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index increased by 1.96% and 6.47%, respectively. The small-cap index saw deeper declines [2][17] - The U.S. market faced downward pressure due to concerns over high valuations, with the Nasdaq dropping by 1.8% over the week. The core PCE price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating stable inflation [2][3] - Domestic industrial profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August. The equipment manufacturing sector remained a key support, with double-digit profit growth in industries such as railways, aerospace, and electrical machinery [2][5] Recent Dynamics - Industrial profits turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% from January to August, driven by policy effects and low base effects. The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase, particularly in specialized equipment and electronics [3][4] - The government has rolled out new growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and construction materials, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel sector [5][6] Market Performance - In the last week, the A-share market saw most sectors rise, with the semiconductor silicon wafer index leading with a 13.1% increase. The power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors also performed well, with gains of 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51%, respectively [13][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained above 2 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation despite fluctuations [2][17] Policy Tracking - Recent policies include the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Plan" and measures to promote service exports, which aim to enhance the competitiveness of key sectors and support economic recovery [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The launch of the Li i6 at a price of 249,800 yuan, with promotional benefits during the initial sales period, is expected to enhance the company's position in the home electric vehicle market [4][7]. - The i6's pricing and features are competitive compared to similar models like Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y, potentially opening new growth opportunities in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan segment [7][9]. - Anticipation for the upcoming upgrades to the L series, which is currently under pressure, is noted, with expectations for improved product competitiveness [7][8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5 billion, 9.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 123.85 billion yuan in 2023, 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, 127.79 billion yuan in 2025, 175.77 billion yuan in 2026, and 212.56 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate of 173.5% in 2023 and a decline of 11.5% in 2025 [6][11]. - Net profit estimates are 11.7 billion yuan for 2023, 8.03 billion yuan for 2024, 4.99 billion yuan for 2025, 9.5 billion yuan for 2026, and 13.37 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a significant increase in 2023 but a decline in the following years [6][11]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 20% to 22% over the forecast period [6][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 6.6% in 2025 before recovering to 13.5% by 2027 [6][12].