Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - As of March 14, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities increased by 9.7% month-on-month, indicating a gradual improvement in transactions as the supply of new homes increases [2] - The real estate market has shifted focus from "whether" to "how good" the properties are, with new building regulations expected to be implemented in 2024, leading to a concentration of high-quality residential properties entering the market in 2025 [2] - The current market may present strategic opportunities for product innovation and a cyclical bottom, with a focus on "good houses" that meet the government's four-dimensional upgrade goals of safety, comfort, green, and intelligence [2] - Historical burdens are lighter for certain companies, and those with optimized inventory structures and strong product capabilities are expected to benefit first from the market recovery [2] Summary by Sections Policy - The government work report emphasizes the need to continuously promote stabilization in the real estate market and to accelerate the construction of a new development model [7][10] - Policies are expected to be further detailed, focusing on "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" to stimulate demand and improve supply-side measures [10][11] Market Dynamics - The average price of residential properties in 100 cities was 16,711 yuan per square meter in February, marking a 0.11% month-on-month increase and a continuous recovery for 18 months [30] - The average land transaction premium in 100 cities reached a new high of 10.4%, indicating strong demand for quality land parcels [33] Company Performance - The top 50 real estate companies saw a narrowing of sales declines, with a 0.4% year-on-year decrease in sales amount in February, a reduction of 4.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [38] - Companies such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Greentown China are highlighted as having strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, making them potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [2][46] Stock Market Performance - The real estate sector rose by 5.37% in February, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.91% [45] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 36.49, placing it in the 94.9 percentile of the past five years [45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the total scale of non-monetary market funds reached 9.5 trillion yuan, with equity funds accounting for 4.9 trillion yuan, and stock index funds comprising 1.7 trillion yuan [2]. - The report notes a decline in market share for bank channels but an acceleration in filling the gap for index funds. The market shares for equity funds, non-monetary funds, and stock index funds were 41.9%, 44.2%, and 11.3%, respectively [2]. - Ant Group's fund management has solidified its advantage in index funds, with a market share of 43% in equity funds, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase from the previous period [2]. - The report indicates that the ETF's unique advantages have helped brokerage firms increase their market share, with stock index funds' market share reaching 57.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Fund Scale and Growth - As of the end of 24H2, the non-monetary fund scale increased by 7.6% compared to 24H1, with equity funds growing by 2.6% and debt funds by 13.3% [4]. - The stock index fund scale reached 1.7 trillion yuan, marking a 25.3% increase from the previous period, while actively managed equity funds saw a year-on-year decline of 6.5% [4]. Channel Performance - In the bank channel, stock index funds saw a significant increase of 43.6%, while the third-party channel experienced a 17.4% growth [4]. - The report emphasizes that the performance of passive funds is superior in brokerage and third-party channels, while the bank channel benefits from the strength of debt funds [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerage firms with strong wealth management capabilities, such as Guangfa Securities, Industrial Bank Securities, and Dongfang Securities, which have leading fund subsidiaries [8]. - It also recommends paying attention to Oriental Fortune, which has a thriving fund platform, and top brokerage firms like CICC, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, known for their service capabilities [8].

Economic Growth Indicators - In January-February 2025, China's GDP growth rate is estimated at 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from December 2024 but consistent with October-November 2024 levels[7] - Industrial value added increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 5.6%, both showing a slowdown compared to December 2024[7] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 1.9 percentage points from December 2024[14] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth is supported by mining and equipment manufacturing, with mining value added increasing by 4.3% and equipment manufacturing by 10.6%[9] - Export delivery value for large-scale industries grew by 6.2%, exceeding the nominal growth rate of industrial value added by 2.5 percentage points[11] - The industrial sales rate was 95.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating weaker demand recovery compared to production[11] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment excluding real estate grew by 8.4%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 10% and manufacturing investment by 9%[14] - The contribution of manufacturing technology reform investment to overall investment growth was 62.3%[15] - Private investment accounted for 50.8% of total fixed asset investment, showing no growth compared to the previous year[23] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment declined by 9.8%, but the drop was 3.7 percentage points less than in December 2024, indicating progress in inventory reduction[24] - The area of newly started housing projects fell by 29.6%, while the area under construction decreased by 15.6%[24] - The growth rate of unsold residential properties has decreased by 18 percentage points from the peak in May 2024, reaching the lowest level since early 2022[24] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0%, driven by a recovery in dining income, with retail sales of goods remaining stable at 3.9%[29] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.4%, the highest since March 2023, indicating ongoing employment pressures[30] - Average working hours for employees decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, reflecting potential underemployment issues[30]

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment outlook for US stocks from "cautiously optimistic" to "neutral" for the year, with a bearish view in the short term [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that as of March 14, 2025, the S&P 500 index has fallen by 8.2% since February 19, and the Nasdaq index has dropped by 11.5%. The current economic downturn in the US shows more solid evidence compared to previous adjustments, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts [3][10]. - The report compares the current market situation with the adjustments in July-August 2024, noting that both were triggered by recession fears and external shocks. However, the current pressures on the US market are deemed to be stronger [3][9][10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: US Stock Market Analysis - The report identifies that the current economic data in the US is weaker, with the Atlanta GDPNow model predicting a negative growth rate. The challenges for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates are greater now than in previous adjustments [3][9]. - The report anticipates that the current round of adjustments in the US stock market will likely last longer and be more severe than those in July-August 2024 [3][10]. Section 2: Chinese Technology Assets Comparison - The report compares Chinese technology assets listed in A-shares, H-shares, and US markets, noting that US-listed Chinese stocks have a higher concentration of technology assets. As of March 11, 2025, the proportion of technology stocks in A-shares, H-shares, and US markets is 46%, 34%, and 52% respectively [4][12]. - It highlights that A-shares have a higher manufacturing content in technology assets, while US and H-shares have a greater proportion of technology service companies [4][13]. - The performance of technology assets has shown that since 2024, the growth rates of H-shares and US-listed technology assets have gradually outpaced A-shares, although A-shares still hold advantages in semiconductors and hardware [4][14]. Section 3: Financial Data and Economic Indicators - The report discusses the recovery of social financing in February 2025, supported by government bond financing, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 730 billion yuan. The significant increase in investment in major projects in January-February 2025 is noted, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth [5][18]. - It mentions that the growth rate of RMB loans continues to decline, primarily due to the issuance of replacement bonds affecting medium- and long-term loans for enterprises [5][19]. - The report indicates that the monetary policy in China is currently supportive, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural tool optimizations in the near future [5][21].

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sales and investment continued to decline in January-February 2025, with sales area down 5.1% and sales amount down 2.6% year-on-year [8][10] - The investment amount in real estate development was 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with new construction down 29.6% [9][10] - The report suggests focusing on "good houses" entering the market, which may stimulate new demand, particularly for companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities [11][12] Group 2: Shanghai Pharmaceuticals - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals is positioned for growth in the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine, with several new drug pipelines entering clinical research [12][13] - The company has a stable commercial segment, with a distribution network covering the entire country and over 2000 quality brand pharmacies [13][14] - The CSO business has shown rapid growth, achieving sales of 2.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% [14] Group 3: Robotics Industry - The report highlights the importance of rotary actuators in humanoid robots, which require high torque density and dynamic response, emphasizing the need for customized development [15][16] - The market for frameless torque motors is growing, with a market size of 180 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.73% [16] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in core components for humanoid robots, such as motors and reducers, as the industry moves towards commercialization [15][16]

其 他 报 告 2025年03月18日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3426 | 0.19 | 1.39 | | 深证成份指数 | 10958 | -0.19 | 1.24 | | 沪深300指数 | 3997 | -0.24 | 1.59 | | 创业板指数 | 2215 | -0.52 | 0.97 | | 上证国债指数 | 222 | -0.13 | -0.24 | | 上证基金指数 | 7173 | -0.18 | 0.76 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24146 | 0.77 | -1.12 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8928 | 0.57 | -0.40 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22119 | 0.69 | -2.69 | | 道琼斯指数 | 41842 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [23] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the sales performance is better than investment, with a focus on the "good houses" entering the market for absorption [1][5] - National statistics show that real estate investment in January-February 2025 decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in new construction and completion rates [5] - The report highlights a slight decline in sales, with a 5.1% decrease in sales area and a 2.6% decrease in sales revenue compared to the previous year, although the decline is less severe than in 2024 [5][6] - The average selling price of commercial housing in January-February 2025 was 9,547 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [5] - The report suggests that the real estate market may experience a strategic opportunity for product innovation and a bottoming cycle, particularly if "good houses" emerge [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Performance - Real estate investment in January-February 2025 was 1.1 trillion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with significant regional variations [5] - New construction decreased by 29.6% year-on-year, while completions fell by 15.6% [5] Sales Performance - The total sales area of commercial housing was 1.1 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year, with sales revenue at 1 trillion yuan, down 2.6% [5] - The report notes that the sales price in major cities has stabilized, with a slight increase in first-tier cities [5] Funding and Financial Health - Funds available to real estate companies decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a slight decline in deposits and prepayments [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities for potential investment opportunities [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [28] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales performance is better than investment, with a focus on the "good houses" entering the market for absorption [1][6] - National real estate development investment and sales data for January-February 2025 show a decline in investment by 9.8% year-on-year, with new construction down by 29.6% and completed projects down by 15.6% [2][6] - The report anticipates that the recovery in investment will lag behind sales, with land acquisition and construction still under pressure [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, while sales revenue fell by 2.6% [6] - The average selling price of commercial housing was 9,547 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [6] - The report suggests that with increased supply of high-quality residential properties, the "good houses" are expected to stabilize and form a price anchor [6][7] Investment Trends - Real estate investment in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions saw year-on-year declines of 11.4%, 8.7%, 3.3%, and 21.4% respectively [6] - The report indicates that the funding available to real estate companies decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans down by 11.7% [6][7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the short-term focus should be on the absorption performance of "good houses" entering the market, while the medium-term may present strategic opportunities for product innovation and market recovery [6][7] - Companies with lighter historical burdens, optimized inventory structures, and strong product capabilities are expected to benefit first [6][7]

策略配置研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日 策 略 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 年初以来，国产 AI 浪潮持续发酵引发全球资金对中国科技资产重估。本篇 报告将系统对比在 A 股、港股、美股上市的中国科技资产（Wind 行业分 类的信息技术、通讯服务、医疗保健、汽车与零配件、国防军工、电气设 备行业，以及部分消费行业互联网公司）的主要特征。 一是科技资产含量方面，美股上市的中资股科技资产含量更高，港股、美 股的龙头效应强于 A 股。截至 3 月 11 日，A 股、港股、美股上市的中资 实体企业中，科技股的数量占比分别为 46%、34%、52%，市值占比分别 为 50%、61%、92%。在科技资产内部，A 股、港股、美股上市的中资科 技股市值 CR10 集中度分别为 19%、70%、87%，营收 CR10 分别为 29%、 58%、83%，归母净利润 CR10 分别为 37%、77%、107%。 二是行业结构方面，A股科技资产的制造业含量更高，美股、港股的科技 服务类公司含量更高。A 股科技资产中，制造业市值占比约 78%，软件服 务行业市值占比仅 9%。港股中，科技服务与科技制造的市值比约 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [1] Core Views - The industrial potential of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals is gradually being realized, with dual drivers of revenue growth from innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine [8] - The company has a strong national background and a comprehensive industry chain layout, which positions it well for future growth [8] - The commercial segment is experiencing stable growth, with innovative business areas becoming highlights [8] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals has a deep state-owned background and a solid leading position in the industry [11] - The company focuses on pharmaceutical research, manufacturing, distribution, and retail, covering seven major therapeutic areas [16] 2. Pharmaceutical Industry - The company has a broad layout in innovative drugs and has made acquisitions to enhance its traditional Chinese medicine segment, which has become a second growth curve [26] - As of 2024, the company has 60 new drug pipelines, with 46 being innovative drugs [41] 3. Commercial Segment - The pharmaceutical commercial segment is the main source of revenue, achieving an operating income of 242.87 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [19] - The CSO business has significant growth potential, with sales reaching 2.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% [8] 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.917 billion yuan, 5.608 billion yuan, and 6.283 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability, with net profit margins gradually returning to previous levels [22]