行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 44 期） 中国民航局成立通用航空和低空经济工作领 推荐（维持） 导小组，顶层设计持续推进 万丰奥威：A 股低空经济龙头标的，我们持续看好公司通航+eVTOL 双轮驱 动，收购 Volocopter 资产效应被明显低估。 西锐：全球通航制造龙头，我们预计 2025 年业绩保持 30%+增速，对应当前 PE 仅 12 倍出头，明显低于可比公司。 宗申动力：主业业绩高增长，传统主业与新兴产业高景气共振，看好宗申航发 无人机系统核心环节具备领先的量产能力。 应流股份：公司布局"航空发动机+燃气轮机+核能新材料+低空经济"四大未 来战略级方向。 英搏尔：与亿航成立合资公司深度介入 eVTOL 生产领域、与亿维特、广汽高 域等均有战略合作。 莱斯信息：持续看好公司成为低空数字化领域的"一超"， 公司陆续中标低空 项目，全国化布局不断推进。 四川九洲：切入低空飞行检测领域形成商业闭环，围绕低空新基建在物流领域 打造软硬结合样板工程。 深城交：深圳低空数字化领军企业，立足改革前沿。 国睿科技：军贸东风起，低空万象新。持续强调军贸方向，重视雷达，公司是 雷达军贸核 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.6 CNY, representing a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current price of 6.07 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company focuses on biomass comprehensive applications and power and heat production, with a total installed capacity of 705,000 kW as of the end of 2024, including 491,000 kW for biomass power generation, 160,000 kW for coal power projects, and 54,000 kW for waste-to-energy projects [6][14]. - The report highlights the strong profitability of the Hebei coal power projects, which have shown a significant negative correlation with coal prices over the past decade, indicating that lower coal prices could enhance profitability [7][44]. - There is an expectation for the biomass projects to potentially turn profitable due to the industry's expansion phase and the company's leading position, despite facing operational pressures and subsidy delays [8][10]. - Collaboration with the Zhongke system is anticipated to open new growth opportunities, enhancing the company's shareholder structure and facilitating strategic partnerships [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,786 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, followed by a slight increase in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 217 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 36.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [2]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 73.41%, indicating a relatively high level of debt [3]. Business Analysis - The company operates in three main segments: biomass power generation, coal-fired centralized heating, and waste-to-energy projects, with biomass power generation being the largest segment [6][31]. - The profitability of the coal power projects is supported by strong energy demand from industrial parks in Hebei, where the company’s projects are located [51][65]. - The report notes that the biomass power generation segment has faced challenges due to high raw material costs and delayed subsidy payments, but there is potential for recovery as coal prices decline [8][10][43].

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing market forecasts[2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, while the labor participation rate decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%[2] - Hourly wage growth was lower than expected at 0.2% month-on-month, compared to the forecast of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.4%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly cooled, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 25.3% to 4.7% and September from 91% to 70.7%[2] - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock markets and the dollar index rose, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased[2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.77%, the Nasdaq by 1.02%, and the S&P 500 by 0.83%[2] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - The employment market conditions index, based on 15 employment-related indicators, recorded 0.389, slightly better than the previous months but weaker than the end of last year[4] - Employment growth breadth remains at a cycle low since 2015, with the monthly employment diffusion index dropping from 51.8% to 49.6%[4] - Government sectors contributed 50% of the new jobs, with significant growth in education and healthcare services, while private sector job growth was below expectations[4]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250704 市场概况：今日转债增量下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.15%、上证综指环比上涨0.32%、深证成 指环比下降 0.25%、创业板指环比下降 0.36%、上证 50指数环比上涨0.58%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.48%。 行业表现：今日正股行业指数下降占比过半，共计 18个行业下跌。A股市场 中，跌幅前三位行业为美容护理（-1.87%）、有色金属（-1.60%）、基础化工（- 1.22%）；涨幅前三位行业为银行（+1.84%）、传媒（+0.91%）、公用事业（+0.67%）。 转债市场共计 17个行业下跌，跌幅前三位行业为国防军工（-2.23%）、纺织服 饰（-1.35%）、汽车（-1.32%）；涨幅前三位行业为环保（+3.15%）、公用事业 （+1.06%）、计算机（+0.69%）。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降0.03%、大盘价值环比上涨 1.09%、中盘成长环比下降 0.52%、中盘价值环比下降 0.14%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.59%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.01%。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业跟踪报告 2Q 板块财报前瞻：2Q25 销量高增，板块财 推荐（维持） 务增长预期乐观 乘用车销量：预计 2Q25 批发、零售均实现两位数左右同环比增长 行业研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 51,073.47 | 4.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 32,514.94 | 3.97 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -0.7% | 12.4% | 33.6% | | 相对表现 | -3.4% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 汽车 2025 年 07 月 04 日 -9% 9% 27% 45 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is expected to be around 5.3%, close to Q1's 5.4%[3] - Industrial production growth for Q2 is projected at approximately 5.9%[3] - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound to about 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1[3] Production Insights - June's industrial growth rate is estimated at 6.0%[11] - The PMI production index for June increased to 51%, indicating expansion[4] - The wholesale growth rate for automobiles in June is expected to be 14.1%[4] Demand and Investment Trends - Social retail sales growth is projected to decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities[20] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of the year is expected to be around 3.4%, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2%[16] - Real estate sales area growth is anticipated to be -8.0% in June[17] Trade and Price Dynamics - Export growth for June is expected to be approximately 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1%[14] - CPI for June is forecasted to be around 0% year-on-year, with PPI expected to remain at -3.3%[9][10] Financial Sector Outlook - New social financing in June is estimated at 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 600 billion yuan year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth is expected to be around 7.9% in June[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the major indices experienced an upward trend in the second quarter of 2025, with the ChiNext Composite Index leading with a 5.80% increase and the National Index 2000 rising by 4.41% [1][12][13] - In terms of industry performance, only a few sectors showed negative returns, with the comprehensive financial sector increasing by 32.16% and the national defense and military industry rising by 16.03% [1][13][14] - The report highlights that the timing models performed excellently in Q2 2025, particularly the price-volume resonance V3 model, low volatility blade model, and characteristic volume model [1][6][18] Group 2 - The report identifies sectors to watch for Q3 2025, including oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and electronics, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3][6] - The report emphasizes the use of multi-dimensional models for market timing, industry rotation, and stock selection strategies, which are based on estimated fund positions and over/underweighting [7][18] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various timing models, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term strategies, showcasing their historical performance and future predictions [6][18][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of wealth management products, with 3,574 new products launched during the period from June 14 to June 27, 2025, compared to 2,530 in the previous period, indicating a strong market recovery [6][9] - Fixed income products dominate the new issuance landscape, accounting for 95.41% of new wealth management products, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among investors [19] - The report notes a shift towards diversified investment products, with some institutions beginning to explore equity and derivative assets to enhance returns while maintaining stability [19] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Products - During the period from June 14 to June 27, 2025, the market saw a total of 3,574 new wealth management products, a significant increase from the previous period [9] - The majority of new products (84.28%) were issued by wealth management companies, with an average performance benchmark of 2.64%, the highest among all types of institutions [9] - The structure of new products remains stable, with fixed income products leading at 3,410 new issues, representing 95.41% of the total [19] - Short to medium-term products (3-6 months and 6 months-1 year) are favored by investors, indicating a preference for liquidity alongside returns [20] 2. Fund Products - A total of 91 new public funds were established during the reporting period, with a total issuance scale of 786 million units, a 96.75% increase from the previous period [25] - Bond funds led the new issuance with 344.50 million units, although their market share slightly decreased to 43.83% [26] - The report notes a resurgence in various fund types, including QDII, REITs, and FOF funds, indicating a recovery in the market [30] 3. Insurance Products - The market saw the issuance of 38 new insurance products during the reporting period, continuing a trend of moderate growth [39] - Life insurance products saw a decline in new issuances, while annuity products surged, becoming the dominant category with a market share of 57.9% [39] - Regulatory changes are influencing the structure of insurance products, particularly in the area of dividend insurance, which is expected to remain a key focus for companies [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, convertible bonds showed an "N"-shaped upward fluctuation driven by multiple factors. The convertible bond index outperformed major stock indices, and the valuation increased by 3.58pct compared to the end of 2024. The convertible bond market experienced two rises and two falls, which can be divided into three stages: the valuation increase supported by the capital of convertible bonds from the end of 2024 to before the Spring Festival, the technology sector theme fever from after the Spring Festival to the end of March, and the callback and rebound of convertible bonds following the equity market under the tariff disturbances from early April to June [2][9]. - The convertible bond market presented strong performance. From the beginning of 2025 to June 30, the CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed major equity market indices. The net value of convertible bond funds rose by 7.48% in H1 2025, better than that of first - and second - tier bond funds and partial - debt funds. The maximum drawdown of convertible bond funds was - 8.38%, which was better than that of stock - type and partial - stock - type funds [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025H1 Convertible Bond Market: Fluctuating with the Underlying Stocks under the Macroeconomic Narrative, with Better Stability - **Convertible Bond Terms**: In 2025, the number of forced redemptions remained high. A total of 96 convertible bonds triggered the forced redemption clause, and 36 were announced for redemption, with a forced redemption probability of 37.5%, slightly lower than 42.4% in 2024. The number of times the downward revision clause was triggered decreased, and the probability of downward revision also declined. The number and balance of convertible bonds entering the put - back period were still large, but put - back events only occurred sporadically [3][21][22]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The supply improved significantly year - on - year but was uneven. A total of 19 convertible bonds were issued in H1 2025, with a scale of 21.775 billion yuan, up 58.33% and 68.66% respectively compared to H1 2024. High - rating and large - cap convertible bonds had relatively weak issuance. On the demand side, most major holders reduced their positions, but securities firms and private funds increased their holdings [4][30][42]. 3.2 Stage Review: Convertible Bonds' Resistance to Decline - Theme Fever - External Disturbances - **January 2 - January 27**: Equity market had a small "V" - shaped reversal, and convertible bonds maintained a high - level valuation. At the beginning of the year, the equity market's callback and the spill - over effect from pure bonds catalyzed a rapid increase in the valuation of convertible bonds. Insurance funds and ETFs' increased holdings supported the valuation. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 3.43pct to 24.10% [5][58][63]. - **February 5 - March 31**: The technology theme fever catalyzed the convertible bond market. After the Spring Festival, the technology theme drove the equity market, and the convertible bond market was affected by the redemption pressure of bond funds, with its elasticity being less than that of the equity market, and the valuation decreased by 1.82pct to 22.28% [5][58][66]. - **April 1 - June 30**: External uncertainties were controllable, and the hot spots shifted to the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. The tariff disturbances led to a callback in the equity market in April, but the impact was controllable. The convertible bond style turned to be more stable, and the valuation was relatively firm. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.44pct to 24.72% [5][58][71].

Group 1: Fund Flow and Market Trends - The supply side of funds has slightly contracted, with public equity issuance recovering in the past two weeks, while leveraged funds saw a significant net inflow of 265 billion CNY, up from a previous outflow of 29 billion CNY[8][24] - Equity financing surged by 543.5 billion CNY in the last two weeks, indicating strong demand, while southbound funds continued to flow in with a net inflow of 259.5 billion CNY[8][24][82] - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 633 billion CNY, a decrease of 402.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 19.2% percentile over the past five years[9] Group 2: Trading Activity and Sector Performance - Trading congestion metrics indicate that the financial and TMT sectors are on the rise, while most cyclical sectors are cooling down; for instance, the brokerage sector's heat index rose by 34 percentage points to 39%[8][9] - The insurance sector increased by 17 percentage points to 34%, while the chemical sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 79%[8][9] - The computer sector's trading heat rose by 16 percentage points to 67%, and the communication sector increased by 7 percentage points to 68%[8][9] Group 3: ETF and Stock Buyback Trends - Stock-type ETFs experienced a net outflow of 197 billion CNY, significantly larger than the previous inflow of 139.8 billion CNY, placing the current sentiment at a low point[50][51] - The amount of stock buybacks increased to 21.1 billion CNY from 15.4 billion CNY, which is at the 61% percentile over the past three years[54][55] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The search interest for Kuaishou's A-shares has surged, driven by the recent peak in the Shanghai Composite Index, which reached a new high for the year[9][135] - The public fund concentration trend has weakened, shifting towards value styles and focusing on consumption and cyclical industries, with 30% of the top public fund stocks leading the gains in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and military sectors[9]