| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 5 期） 25 年行业利润下降 42%，26 年盈利有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 0 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, with a target price of RMB 46.85 per share for A-shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H-shares [6]. Core Views - The 25-year performance forecast is generally in line with expectations, and the acquisition of group assets is progressing smoothly [1]. - The forecast for the 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is set at RMB 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.3% to 2.3%, which is better than the non-recurring profit performance [6]. - The company plans to acquire 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total transaction price of RMB 133.6 billion, which is expected to enhance operational capabilities and profitability [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 343,074 million - 2024A: RMB 338,375 million - 2025E: RMB 310,460 million (down 8.2% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 327,292 million (up 5.4% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 338,435 million (up 3.4% YoY) [2][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 59,694 million - 2024A: RMB 58,671 million - 2025E: RMB 52,293 million (down 10.9% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 54,759 million (up 4.7% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 57,498 million (up 5.0% YoY) [2][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 3.00 - 2024A: RMB 2.95 - 2025E: RMB 2.63 - 2026E: RMB 2.76 - 2027E: RMB 2.89 [2][10] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE): 14.6% in 2023A, declining to 11.9% in 2025E, then recovering to 12.3% in 2027E [2][10]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 10.4 in 2023A, increasing to 15.9 in 2025E, then stabilizing around 14.5 in 2027E [2][10]. - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is projected to be RMB 89,687 million in 2023A, decreasing to RMB 82,544 million in 2025E, and recovering to RMB 92,973 million by 2027E [11].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月 PMI 向下，BCI 向上 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 1 月 PMI 向下，制造业、非制造业环比均回落 0.8 个点；BCI 向上，BCI 环比回升 3.9 个点。我们理解主要是 环比指标和同比指标的区别。PMI 是一个环比指标，BCI 在指标设计上则兼容环比和同比。2025 年春节在 1 月 底，2026 年在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处于正常开工状态，所以同比会比较有利。 据万得数据（下同），1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3，低于前值的 50.1；非制造业 PMI 为 49.4，低于前值 50.2。 1 月 BCI 为 53.7，高于前值的 49.8。 ⚫ 制造业 PMI 的放缓幅度要略大于季节性，历史上同样春节偏晚的 2015 年 1 月、2018 年 1 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 31 日 证券研究报告 沃什时代前瞻：美联储政策框架的三个转向 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联储主席之一"（ he will go down as one of ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 电改系列 | 电改系列:容量电价星火燎原， | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 新型储能加快发展 | | | 电改系列:新能源全电量入市， | 2025-02-10 | | 电力市场化迎来重要变革 | | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 4 全国性容量电价机制出台，调节性电源迎发展东风 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈子坤并非香港证券及期 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, with a current price of 202.03 CNY and a fair value of 253.24 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 500 to 528 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 55% to 63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 12.3 to 14.0 billion CNY, indicating a significant increase of 222% to 267% post-restructuring [8]. - The company anticipates a revenue of approximately 514 billion CNY for 2025, with Q4 expected to generate 148 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% [8]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is expected to improve in Q4, with a net profit margin projected at 4.7% [8]. - The investment recommendation is based on the anticipated acceleration in store openings and the positive market conditions for the edible fungi business [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 9,294 million CNY - 2024: 32,329 million CNY - 2025: 51,400 million CNY - 2026: 64,046 million CNY - 2027: 78,016 million CNY - The growth rates for revenue are projected at 1,592.0% for 2023, 247.9% for 2024, and 59.0% for 2025 [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 294 million CNY, and further increasing to 1,316 million CNY in 2025 [3][11]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 6.97 CNY for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 29.0 [3][11]. Market Position and Performance - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the discount retail sector, particularly in lower-tier markets, which is driving its growth strategy [8]. - The report notes that the company has improved its operational efficiency, with a significant reduction in the decline of average revenue per store in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [8].

| [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 134,598 | 133,125 | 128,962 | 136,730 | 146,565 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 9% | -1% | -3% | 6% | 7% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 60,116 | 64,218 | 42,454 | 56,182 | 60,480 | | NonGaap归母净利润 （百万元） | 28,747 | 27,002 | 18,257 | 20,985 | 24,182 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 39% | -6% | -32% | 15% | 15% | | NonGaap EPS （ 元 /ADS） | 84 | 79 | 53 | 61 | 70 | | 市 盈 率 NonGaap （P/E） | 13 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 16 | | ROE （ % ） | 8% | 9% | 2 ...

[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资策略月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 分红与股指期货基差月报 2026 年 1 月底统计 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 图 1：宽基指数成分股分红对比：2026 年（已实现）与 2025 年 数据来源：Wind, 广发证券发展研究中心 图 2：各合约当前年化基差率（考虑 分红后） 数据来源：Wind, 广发证券发展研究中心 | [分析师： Table_Author]张超 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514070002 | | SFC CE No. BOB130 | | | 020-66335132 | | | | zhangchao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 安宁宁 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | | 0755-23948352 | | | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | | | --- | --- ...