Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that Jin Xing Beer has successfully transitioned to the "Chinese-style craft beer" segment, achieving rapid revenue and net profit growth, with craft beer products accounting for 78.1% of total revenue by Q3 2025, and overall gross margin increasing from 27.3% in 2023 to 47.0% [6][24] - The report emphasizes the unique characteristics of the Chinese craft beer market, where local companies dominate and flavor-driven products lead growth, contrasting with the Western craft beer narrative [6][24] - Jin Xing Beer serves as a case study for the industry's shift from supply-side monopolies to demand-side growth, indicating a competitive landscape where smaller breweries explore new opportunities while larger firms make strategic decisions [6][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - Jin Xing Beer, located in Henan, has over 40 years of history and is the eighth largest beer company in China by retail sales as of 2024, with a significant focus on craft beer [15] - The company reported a revenue of 1.11 billion CNY and a net profit of 310 million CNY for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 191% and 1096% respectively [15] Section 2: Insights from Jin Xing's "Chinese-style Craft Beer" - The report discusses the evolution of craft beer in China, noting that its growth is correlated with the maturity of industrial lager, reflecting a global trend where craft beer emerges as a compensatory consumption pattern in highly concentrated markets [6][24] - Jin Xing's approach to craft beer emphasizes flavor innovation, leveraging local ingredients and traditional practices, which aligns with consumer preferences for unique and personalized drinking experiences [6][24] Section 3: Financial Analysis of Leading Beer Companies - The report compares Jin Xing Beer with major beer companies, highlighting differences in scale, pricing, and profitability, with Jin Xing achieving higher prices per ton despite its smaller size [6][24] - Financial metrics indicate that Jin Xing's craft beer segment has a significant impact on its overall financial performance, showcasing the potential for growth in the craft beer market [6][24] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are adapting to the demand-side changes in the beer industry, recommending Jin Xing Beer, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and major players like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery for their strong dividend yields and potential for EPS growth in the craft beer segment [6][24]

| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 5 期） 25 年行业利润下降 42%，26 年盈利有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 0 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, with a target price of RMB 46.85 per share for A-shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H-shares [6]. Core Views - The 25-year performance forecast is generally in line with expectations, and the acquisition of group assets is progressing smoothly [1]. - The forecast for the 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is set at RMB 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.3% to 2.3%, which is better than the non-recurring profit performance [6]. - The company plans to acquire 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total transaction price of RMB 133.6 billion, which is expected to enhance operational capabilities and profitability [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 343,074 million - 2024A: RMB 338,375 million - 2025E: RMB 310,460 million (down 8.2% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 327,292 million (up 5.4% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 338,435 million (up 3.4% YoY) [2][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 59,694 million - 2024A: RMB 58,671 million - 2025E: RMB 52,293 million (down 10.9% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 54,759 million (up 4.7% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 57,498 million (up 5.0% YoY) [2][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 3.00 - 2024A: RMB 2.95 - 2025E: RMB 2.63 - 2026E: RMB 2.76 - 2027E: RMB 2.89 [2][10] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE): 14.6% in 2023A, declining to 11.9% in 2025E, then recovering to 12.3% in 2027E [2][10]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 10.4 in 2023A, increasing to 15.9 in 2025E, then stabilizing around 14.5 in 2027E [2][10]. - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is projected to be RMB 89,687 million in 2023A, decreasing to RMB 82,544 million in 2025E, and recovering to RMB 92,973 million by 2027E [11].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月 PMI 向下，BCI 向上 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 1 月 PMI 向下，制造业、非制造业环比均回落 0.8 个点；BCI 向上，BCI 环比回升 3.9 个点。我们理解主要是 环比指标和同比指标的区别。PMI 是一个环比指标，BCI 在指标设计上则兼容环比和同比。2025 年春节在 1 月 底，2026 年在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处于正常开工状态，所以同比会比较有利。 据万得数据（下同），1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3，低于前值的 50.1；非制造业 PMI 为 49.4，低于前值 50.2。 1 月 BCI 为 53.7，高于前值的 49.8。 ⚫ 制造业 PMI 的放缓幅度要略大于季节性，历史上同样春节偏晚的 2015 年 1 月、2018 年 1 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 31 日 证券研究报告 沃什时代前瞻：美联储政策框架的三个转向 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联储主席之一"（ he will go down as one of ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 电改系列 | 电改系列:容量电价星火燎原， | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 新型储能加快发展 | | | 电改系列:新能源全电量入市， | 2025-02-10 | | 电力市场化迎来重要变革 | | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 4 全国性容量电价机制出台，调节性电源迎发展东风 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈子坤并非香港证券及期 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, with a current price of 202.03 CNY and a fair value of 253.24 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 500 to 528 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 55% to 63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 12.3 to 14.0 billion CNY, indicating a significant increase of 222% to 267% post-restructuring [8]. - The company anticipates a revenue of approximately 514 billion CNY for 2025, with Q4 expected to generate 148 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% [8]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is expected to improve in Q4, with a net profit margin projected at 4.7% [8]. - The investment recommendation is based on the anticipated acceleration in store openings and the positive market conditions for the edible fungi business [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 9,294 million CNY - 2024: 32,329 million CNY - 2025: 51,400 million CNY - 2026: 64,046 million CNY - 2027: 78,016 million CNY - The growth rates for revenue are projected at 1,592.0% for 2023, 247.9% for 2024, and 59.0% for 2025 [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 294 million CNY, and further increasing to 1,316 million CNY in 2025 [3][11]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 6.97 CNY for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 29.0 [3][11]. Market Position and Performance - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the discount retail sector, particularly in lower-tier markets, which is driving its growth strategy [8]. - The report notes that the company has improved its operational efficiency, with a significant reduction in the decline of average revenue per store in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [8].

| [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 134,598 | 133,125 | 128,962 | 136,730 | 146,565 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 9% | -1% | -3% | 6% | 7% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 60,116 | 64,218 | 42,454 | 56,182 | 60,480 | | NonGaap归母净利润 （百万元） | 28,747 | 27,002 | 18,257 | 20,985 | 24,182 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 39% | -6% | -32% | 15% | 15% | | NonGaap EPS （ 元 /ADS） | 84 | 79 | 53 | 61 | 70 | | 市 盈 率 NonGaap （P/E） | 13 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 16 | | ROE （ % ） | 8% | 9% | 2 ...