Investment Rating - The report does not specify a direct investment rating for the industry but emphasizes a positive outlook on green finance initiatives and ESG investments [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of green finance supply by two departments, focusing on three key support directions: technological breakthroughs and industrial applications, enterprise green transformation, and zero-carbon factory construction [3][12]. - By 2030, the goal is to increase the output value of green factories at national, provincial, and municipal levels to 40% [3][12]. - The report indicates a significant growth in ESG bonds, with a total issuance of 3,832 bonds and a stock scale of 5.72 trillion RMB, where green bonds account for 62.15% [5][29]. - The ESG public fund market consists of 944 products with a total net value of 11,645.22 billion RMB, with ESG strategy products making up 45.09% [5][35]. - The report notes that 95% of business leaders view climate transition as a source of growth and opportunity, indicating a shift in perspective towards sustainability [21][22]. Summary by Sections Domestic Focus - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China have issued a notice to enhance green finance support, targeting three main project categories [3][12]. - The report outlines the implementation of a carbon footprint factor database by 2027, aiming to improve data quality and international influence [13]. - Hubei Province has completed the first compliance of multiple industries under the national carbon market, marking a significant local practice for the market's operation [14]. International Focus - The World Bank's report on Mauritania highlights the country's economic challenges and the need for diversification beyond the mining sector, which currently contributes 70% of exports and one-fifth of GDP [4][18]. - The ISSB has made targeted revisions to the IFRS S2 to support the implementation of climate-related disclosures [19]. - Munich Re has set new climate targets for its insurance and investment portfolios, emphasizing a commitment to climate solutions [20]. ESG Financial Products Tracking - The report provides detailed statistics on ESG bonds, public funds, and bank wealth management products, indicating a robust market presence and growth potential [5][29][40]. - The issuance of ESG bonds in the past year totaled 1,231 bonds with a total amount of 13,668 billion RMB [5][29]. Index Tracking - As of December 12, 2025, major ESG indices have shown varied performance, with the Shenzhen ESG 300 index having the highest increase of 14.75% over the past year [7][41]. Expert Opinions - Experts emphasize the integration of technology and finance to build a resilient and efficient sustainable development paradigm, highlighting China's advantages in climate technology [8][42].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Dividend Forecast and Basis Adjustment Model - **Model Name**: Dividend Forecast and Basis Adjustment Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the dividend points of the underlying index of stock index futures during the contract period and adjusts the basis accordingly. - **Model Construction Process**: - Predict the dividend points of the underlying index for the next year. For example, the predicted dividend points for the CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 84.93, 90.40, 75.15, and 63.87, respectively[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - Calculate the basis as the difference between the futures contract closing price and the underlying index closing price. - Adjust the basis by adding the expected dividends during the contract period to the actual basis. - Annualize the adjusted basis using the formula: $$ \text{Annualized Basis} = \frac{\text{Actual Basis} + \text{Expected Dividend Points}}{\text{Index Price}} \times \frac{360}{\text{Remaining Days of the Contract}} $$ - Example: The annualized basis for the IC current season contract adjusted for dividends is -8.64%[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively adjusts the basis to account for dividends, providing a more accurate measure of the futures contract's value relative to the underlying index. Model 2: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Name**: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy aims to hedge the basis risk by continuously holding futures contracts and adjusting positions based on the contract's expiration. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtest Parameters and Settings**: - Backtest period: July 22, 2022, to December 12, 2025[43][44][45]. - Spot end: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index. - Futures end: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and the same nominal principal amount for the futures end, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. - Rebalance rule: Continuously hold the current month/season contract until the contract has less than 2 days to expiration, then close the position at the closing price and short the next season/current month contract at the closing price. - **Performance**: - Annualized return: -3.41% (current month), -2.42% (season), -1.94% (minimum basis strategy)[46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - Volatility: 3.80% (current month), 4.70% (season), 4.51% (minimum basis strategy). - Maximum drawdown: -11.20% (current month), -8.34% (season), -8.70% (minimum basis strategy). - Net value: 0.8893 (current month), 0.9205 (season), 0.9360 (minimum basis strategy). - **Model Evaluation**: The continuous hedging strategy provides a systematic approach to managing basis risk, though it may result in negative returns under certain market conditions. Model Backtest Results - **Dividend Forecast and Basis Adjustment Model**: - CSI 500: Annualized basis -8.64%[20] - CSI 300: Annualized basis -3.44%[27] - SSE 50: Annualized basis -0.70%[32] - CSI 1000: Annualized basis -12.38%[38] - **Continuous Hedging Strategy**: - CSI 500: Annualized return -3.41% (current month), -2.42% (season), -1.94% (minimum basis strategy)[46] - CSI 300: Annualized return 0.36% (current month), 0.70% (season), 1.08% (minimum basis strategy)[52] - SSE 50: Annualized return 1.08% (current month), 2.02% (season), 1.68% (minimum basis strategy)[56] - CSI 1000: Annualized return -6.43% (current month), -4.70% (season), -4.38% (minimum basis strategy)[58] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Name**: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset based on option prices. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility of options with different maturities. - Aggregate the implied volatilities to form the VIX index for different indices. - Example: As of December 12, 2025, the 30-day VIX for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 15.93, 17.03, 22.82, and 20.49, respectively[61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The Cinda-VIX index provides valuable insights into market sentiment and expected volatility, aiding in risk management and trading decisions. Factor 2: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Name**: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, indicating market expectations of tail risk. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility for options with different strike prices. - Measure the skewness of the implied volatilities to form the SKEW index. - Example: As of December 12, 2025, the SKEW for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 101.80, 108.04, 104.65, and 108.10, respectively[68][69][70][71][72][73]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The Cinda-SKEW index captures market concerns about tail risks, providing a useful tool for assessing potential market stress and investor sentiment. Factor Backtest Results - **Cinda-VIX**: - SSE 50: 15.93[61] - CSI 300: 17.03[61] - CSI 500: 22.82[61] - CSI 1000: 20.49[61] - **Cinda-SKEW**: - SSE 50: 101.80[68] - CSI 300: 108.04[68] - CSI 500: 104.65[68] - CSI 1000: 108.10[68]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upstream oil price is expected to bottom out in 2026, with a shift from a clear surplus to marginal tightening in the oil market, while still remaining in a loose environment. The average oil price for 2026 is projected to fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and OPEC+ market stabilization actions [3][40][43] - The demand for global crude oil is expected to grow at a rate of approximately 80,000 to 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, with the growth primarily driven by developing economies, while demand in developed regions like North America and Europe is nearing its peak [38][39] - The refining supply structure is undergoing optimization, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing the quality of production. The report highlights that the domestic refining capacity is projected to reach 1 billion tons by 2025, with a significant portion of this capacity being concentrated in large-scale refineries [46][51][62] Group 2 - The report recommends investment in private refining enterprises with scale advantages and a long chemical industry chain, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as polyester filament leaders like Tongkun Co. and Xin Fengming [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the chemical oil demand, which is expected to continue its long-term growth trajectory, with the share of chemical oil consumption in total oil consumption projected to rise to 50% by 2026 [62][64] - The report notes that the refining industry is likely to enter a period of stock competition, with a significant amount of outdated refining capacity facing potential elimination, particularly among smaller refineries [51][54][59]

Economic Assessment - The meeting emphasized the deepening impact of external environmental changes and the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand domestically[6] - The overall policy strength for next year is expected to be no lower than this year[2] - However, a strong stimulus is not anticipated despite the policy strength being maintained[3] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy is projected to remain consistent with this year, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to stay at 4%[8] - General government debt is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.3 trillion to a range of 5.9-6 trillion[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a similar stance as this year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 10 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[11] - The focus will remain on maintaining reasonable liquidity while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[11] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand continues to be the top priority, with a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption[12] - Infrastructure investment is expected to see a peak, contributing to overall investment stabilization[13] Real Estate Policy Changes - New measures in real estate policy include encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[14] - The urbanization rate has slowed, with only a 0.84 percentage point increase expected in 2024, indicating a potential decline in real housing demand[14] Stock Market Projections - A slow bull market is anticipated for A-shares in 2026, with limited support for a rapid bull market[20] - The market outlook is influenced by policy, liquidity, and fundamental factors, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors driving performance[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include sudden geopolitical tensions abroad and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[22]

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with structural optimization and marginal profit improvement. Supply side: total contraction and structural differentiation, with capital expenditure continuing to show weak growth. The steel industry's capital expenditure has been slowing for four consecutive years, entering negative growth in 2025 due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" policies, a downturn in the real estate sector, and limited infrastructure support [2][10] - The domestic crude steel consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year decline in demand from January to October 2025, amounting to 710 million tons. The demand in traditional steel usage areas remains weak, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [2][32] - Exports have become a crucial support for the steel industry, with steel exports reaching 97.74 million tons from January to October 2025, a 6.4% increase year-on-year. The total annual export volume is expected to exceed 110 million tons, effectively offsetting the pressure from declining domestic demand [2][48] Group 1: Marginal Improvement in the Steel Industry - The average steel price has continued to decline, with the comprehensive price index for ordinary steel dropping to 3,447 yuan/ton as of November 24, 2025, down approximately 200 yuan from the year's peak [10][60] - The profit margin of the steel industry has shown significant improvement, with the gross profit margin reaching 6.4% in Q3 2025, marking a recovery from the low levels seen since 2022 [13][15] - The proportion of loss-making enterprises in the steel industry has slightly decreased but remains high at 37.18%, indicating ongoing challenges within the industry [17] Group 2: PPI Turnaround Expectations - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the steel industry is expected to turn positive by Q2 2026, driven by improvements in supply structure and demand dynamics [53][60] - Historical data shows that the steel industry plays a significant role in PPI fluctuations, with past PPI turnarounds in 2016 and 2021 coinciding with significant steel industry performance [54][60] - The steel industry accounts for approximately 5.9% of the PPI, making its price movements critical for overall industrial price trends [53][54] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-efficiency, low-emission regional leading enterprises such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel, as well as companies with strong growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4][60] - The steel sector is viewed as having strong "anti-involution" attributes and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity for the medium to long term [4][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small and medium-sized steel companies, particularly those with strong earnings growth and valuation appeal [4][60]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in China's stock pricing logic, emphasizing three core trends: China's proactive position in US-China trade, stabilization in the real estate market, and the emergence of new technologies and industries creating structural growth opportunities [2][15]. - Key investment directions include structural growth in new consumption trends, enhanced global resource allocation capabilities, long-term advantages of high dividend strategies, and undervalued consumer blue-chip stocks [2][15]. Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The personal care and pet food sectors are experiencing a dual growth trend, with strong brand loyalty and significant single product effects, while the baby care market is diversifying with a focus on quality and price [3][26]. - The gold and jewelry market is expected to maintain a favorable outlook in 2026, driven by the value retention of gold jewelry and the concentration of market share among leading brands [3][26]. - The collectible toy market is expanding, with leading companies transitioning from single product-driven models to integrated IP and ecosystem strategies [3][26]. - The new tobacco sector is witnessing stricter regulations, but the heat-not-burn (HNB) market penetration is accelerating, with key players like Smoore International positioned for growth [3][26]. - The smart glasses market is projected to grow significantly, with global sales expected to reach 18 million units by 2026, driven by advancements in comfort, aesthetics, and AI interaction [3][26]. - The electric two-wheeler market is optimizing its structure due to new regulations, with leading companies expected to enhance their market share [3][26]. Group 3: Cyclical Trends - The home furnishings sector is anticipated to remain in an adjustment phase through 2025, with a potential stabilization in 2027, driven by demand for soft and smart home products [5][6]. - The paper industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by limited new pulp capacity and a potential increase in pulp prices [5][6]. - The metal packaging industry is experiencing increased concentration, with expectations of slight price increases in 2026 as the industry shifts from market share to profitability [5][6]. Group 4: Export Dynamics - The report notes a reshaping of supply dynamics, with improved order visibility for companies following the US interest rate cuts and easing trade tensions [6][15]. - Leading companies with localized overseas bases are expected to enhance their global market share, with brands like TaoTao and ZhiOu demonstrating resilience in international markets [6][15]. Group 5: Textile and Apparel Insights - The outdoor apparel market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2029, driven by product innovation [7][26]. - The men's clothing and home textile sectors are showing resilience, with leading brands benefiting from high dividend characteristics and online sales growth [7][26]. - The textile manufacturing sector is optimistic about external demand, with healthy order books and a continued shift of production capacity to countries like Indonesia [7][26].

Group 1: Supply Constraints and Production Stability - The total coal supply level is expected to remain relatively stable or show slight fluctuations in 2026, with a focus on monitoring overproduction and safety regulations [3][4] - Domestic raw coal production increased by 1.5% year-on-year to 3.97 billion tons from January to October 2025, with a notable decline in imports by 11% during the same period [4][17] - The coal supply growth has entered a low-growth phase, with the overall supply growth rate only 0.8% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 3.3% growth in 2024 [17][19] Group 2: Demand Resilience and Consumption Growth - Coal consumption continues to grow, with total commodity coal consumption reaching 3.57 billion tons, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, while thermal coal consumption remained stable [6][7] - The electricity sector remains the core demand driver, accounting for 63.5% of thermal coal consumption, with significant support from AI and high-end manufacturing sectors [6][7] - Non-electric demand is also growing, particularly in the chemical sector, which saw a 17.4% increase in coal consumption [7][8] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coal prices exhibited a "V-shaped" trend in 2025, with the average price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 19% year-on-year to 690 yuan/ton [8][9] - The price center is expected to stabilize within a reasonable range due to policy guidance and cost support, with projected prices for 2026 around 730-760 yuan/ton for thermal coal [9][10] - The coal sector's valuation remains at a relatively low level, with potential for upward movement as the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive [9][10] Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Strategic Recommendations - The coal sector is viewed as having medium to long-term investment opportunities, particularly for high-quality coal assets that offer stable returns and long-term appreciation potential [9][10] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and robust performance [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering long-term trends in energy transition and policy adjustments when evaluating coal investments [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.02 HKD [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the mass-market Chinese dining sector, focusing on providing a "delicious and affordable" dining experience. It operates under the main brand "Xiao Cai Yuan" and has expanded to include five brands in total. As of June 2025, the company had 672 "Xiao Cai Yuan" stores, ranking first in market share within the 50-100 RMB price range for mass-market Chinese dining [5][18]. - The company is in a rapid expansion phase, with plans to reach approximately 1,000 stores by the end of 2026. The average payback period for new stores is about 13.8 months, significantly lower than the industry average of 18 months [5][15][43]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including centralized procurement, a central kitchen, cold chain logistics, and digital management, which enhances operational efficiency and profitability [5][16][59]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,549 million RMB in 2023 to 8,913 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 532 million RMB in 2023 to 1,111 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 19.6% [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 85% in 2023 to 33% in 2027, indicating strong profitability [4]. Business Analysis - The company has adopted a simplified menu strategy, offering 45-50 seasonal dishes that are freshly prepared in-store, ensuring quality and taste. The average customer spending is around 50-70 RMB, with recent adjustments lowering the average to 59 RMB in 2024 [26][31]. - The company has successfully integrated both dine-in and delivery services, with delivery revenue increasing from 15.5% in 2021 to 39.0% in the first half of 2025 [31][36]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a well-established supply chain and standardized operations, which facilitate rapid store expansion and cost efficiency. The operating profit margin (OPM) for stores has shown promising trends, with expectations to exceed 20% [5][46]. - The company has a strong bargaining power due to its centralized procurement strategy, which has reduced the cost of raw materials and consumables from 34.5% in 2021 to 29.5% in the first half of 2025 [64]. Market Context - The mass-market Chinese dining sector is experiencing growth, outperforming the overall consumer market. The industry is adapting to changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratios and affordability [17][21]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing urbanization and changes in family structures, which are expected to drive demand for affordable dining options [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating to the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has completed adjustments in its governance structure and management team, marking a new development phase and focusing on high-quality growth [5][14]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 29% [31]. - The dividend payout ratio is set to increase to 46% in 2024, with corresponding increases in dividend yields for both A-shares and H-shares [5][35]. Summary by Sections Governance Changes and Strategic Focus - The company has completed the adjustment of its senior management team, with new leadership expected to enhance operational quality [16][30]. - The new governance structure emphasizes internationalization, digital transformation, and innovation in research and development [30]. - The company is advancing its strategic planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan" while ensuring the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [37][38]. Business Performance - The commercial segment remains a cornerstone of revenue, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% from 2020 to 2024 [15][39]. - The traditional Chinese medicine segment is under short-term pressure, with a decline in revenue due to inventory adjustments and increased competition [15][41]. - The health segment is experiencing growth, with a revenue increase of over 7% in the first half of 2025 [15][45]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 790.01 billion, 840.61 billion, and 894.5 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 37.35 billion, 39.63 billion, and 44.27 billion [6][7]. - The company anticipates a net profit growth of approximately 31.7% in 2025, followed by more moderate growth in subsequent years [6][7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 46% in 2024, significantly higher than the 30% range maintained from 2019 to 2023 [5][35]. - The expected dividend yield for A-shares is approximately 2.81%, while H-shares are projected to yield around 4.83% [5][35].

气价下行期关注港股城燃投资价值 [Table_CoverStock] ——天然气行业 2026 年度策略报告 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 12 月 8 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 投资策略 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业行业 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [气价下行期关注港股城燃投资价值 Table_Title] ——天然气行业 2026 年度策略报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 8 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Chart ...