| 收盘价（港元）： | 47.100 | | --- | --- | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | 55.000/20.000 | | 流通/总股本（亿股）： | 12.27/12.43 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | 577.80 | | 总市值（亿港元）： | 585.28 | 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 商贸零售 名创优品（09896.HK） 买入-A(维持) 2025Q2 名创业务同店销售显著改善，经营拐点显现 2025 年 8 月 25 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 8 月 21 日，公司公布截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日止季度业绩及上半年中期业绩。 2025Q2，公司实现营收 49.66 亿元，同比增长 23.1%；实现经调整净利润 6.92 亿元，同比增长 10.6%。2025H1，公司实现营收 93.93 亿元，同比增长 21.1%； 实现经调整净利润 12.79 亿元，同比增长 3.0%。 事件点评 市场数据：2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) [1][9] Core Views - The company achieved a steady revenue growth of 10.12% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.657 billion yuan [4] - The WPS personal business and WPS 365 business are driving overall revenue growth, with WPS 365 revenue increasing by 62.27% year-on-year [5][6] - The launch of WPS AI 3.0 has significantly increased monthly active users to 29.51 million, up from 19.68 million at the end of 2024 [7][9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 747 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.57% [4] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 85.03%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - The company’s R&D expense ratio increased to 36.07%, reflecting continued investment in AI [6] Business Segmentation - WPS personal business revenue reached 1.748 billion yuan, growing by 8.38% year-on-year, with domestic revenue at 1.619 billion yuan [6] - WPS 365 business revenue was 309 million yuan, benefiting from enhanced product capabilities and new key clients [6] - WPS software revenue decreased by 2.08% year-on-year to 542 million yuan due to some clients transitioning to WPS 365 [6] Future Projections - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 3.87, 4.56, and 5.42 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 85.06, 72.27, and 60.77 [9][10]

珠宝首饰及钟表 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 增持-A(维持) 2025 年 8 月 25 日 公司研究/公司快报 | | | | 收盘价（元）： | | 15.20 | | --- | --- | --- | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | 18.18/4.06 | | 流通 A | 股/总股本（亿 | 8.67/8.89 | | 股）： | | | | 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： | | 131.83 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | 135.05 | | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.37 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | 0.37 | | 每股净资产(元)： | 4.26 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 8.79 | | 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 | | 分析师： 8 月 21 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025H1，公司实现营收 41.02 亿元， 同比增长 19.54%，实现归母净利润 3.31 亿元，同比增长 44.34%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 1 元（含税），中期派息率 26.82%。 事件点评 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in the AI sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US and supportive policies for AI investments from the Trump administration. This has led to increased investor interest in AI-related technologies and companies [5][6] - The liquid cooling industry is experiencing heightened attention due to accelerated deployments by overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) and positive performance indicators from key players in the sector. The report suggests that the liquid cooling market is transitioning from a conceptual phase to one of actual performance delivery [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supernodes and the expected growth in high-speed copper connections and optical modules, particularly following the recent Open Compute Project (OCP) conference [6][9] Industry Commentary - The communication sector is witnessing a rotation towards AI-related investments, with a focus on liquid cooling, optical circuit switching (OCS), and domestic supernodes. The report suggests that these areas are poised for growth due to technological advancements and market demand [5][6] - The report notes that the OCS market is expected to see significant commercial deployment in North America by 2026, with potential total addressable market (TAM) reaching $2 billion. This technology is becoming increasingly relevant for large CSP data center networks [9][10] Company Analysis - The report discusses the performance of China Mobile, which reported a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit for the first half of 2025. The company is focusing on transitioning its business model towards value-based operations, leveraging its extensive customer base [18][19] - The report highlights the strong performance of a specific company, which achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 251% year-on-year increase. The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally [10][12] - Another company mentioned in the report experienced a revenue growth of 10.36% in the first half of 2025, despite facing challenges in profitability due to operational pressures from older factories and the ramp-up of new facilities [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.06% to 1.671 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company is experiencing a phase of pressure on profitability due to the transitional efficiency of new factories and a decline in orders from older factories, leading to a temporary drop in gross margin [8][10]. - The company is successfully diversifying its customer base, with significant contributions from new clients like On and New Balance, and a successful partnership with Adidas [9]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the basic earnings per share (EPS) was 1.43 yuan, and the diluted EPS was also 1.43 yuan [4]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) stood at 10.34% [4]. - The company’s total production capacity reached 116.71 million pairs, with a utilization rate of 95.78% [10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.54 billion, 4.07 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [13]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 26.325 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.688 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7% and 10.7% respectively [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved explosive revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong brand power and channel expansion, with revenue reaching 12.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.0%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The company plans to continue its strategy of brand internationalization and market globalization, with new store openings in key commercial centers [9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, same-store sales grew by 200.8%, with a loyal customer base of approximately 480,000 members, an increase of 130,000 from the end of 2024 [3] - The company opened 5 new stores in the first half of 2025, expanding its presence in high-end markets both domestically and internationally [4] - Revenue from the domestic market was 10.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.8%, while overseas revenue reached 1.597 billion yuan, up 455.2% [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 38.1% due to the lag in price adjustments amid rising gold prices [5] - The adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 19.0% due to the benefits of scale [5] - The company’s inventory increased to 8.685 billion yuan to support store optimization and new store expansion, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 195 days at the end of 2024 to 150 days [5] Future Projections - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 25.453 billion yuan, 34.151 billion yuan, and 45.897 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 199.3%, 34.2%, and 34.4% respectively [9] - The projected net profit for the same period is 4.576 billion yuan, 6.429 billion yuan, and 8.949 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 210.6%, 40.5%, and 39.2% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][40]. Core Insights - Recent performance in AI computing, satellite internet, and liquid cooling sectors has significantly improved, driven by macroeconomic factors such as increased certainty in U.S. interest rate cuts and supportive policies for AI investments [2][13]. - The report highlights a "technology bull" market characterized by a resonance of performance and risk appetite, with expectations for the AI market to maintain a high-level, slight fluctuation trend [2][13]. Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Industry - The liquid cooling supply chain has gained significant attention, with catalysts including accelerated deployment by overseas CSPs like Microsoft and positive earnings guidance from companies like Vidi and AVC [3][14]. - The report anticipates a shift from conceptual design to performance realization in the liquid cooling market, with expectations for major players like Invec to benefit from capacity overflow from U.S. and Taiwanese manufacturers [3][14]. Domestic Supernodes - The OCP2025 conference highlighted the launch of the SD200 supernode AI server by Inspur, which is expected to be a mainstream choice for deploying large-scale domestic models [4][15]. - The report suggests that the importance of domestic supernodes is currently underestimated, with various standards being developed in parallel, presenting opportunities in PCIe switches and copper connection modules [4][15]. Optical Switching (OCS) Market - Companies like Coherent and Lumentum are optimistic about the OCS market, with expectations for commercial-scale deployments by North American CSPs in 2026 [6][16]. - The report identifies OCS as a key technology for large CSP data center networks, with potential total addressable market (TAM) reaching $2 billion, emphasizing its cost and latency reduction benefits [6][16]. Market Performance - The overall market saw significant gains during the week of August 11-15, 2025, with the ChiNext index rising by 8.58% and the communication index by 7.66% [7][17]. - The liquid cooling sector led the weekly performance with a 36.49% increase, followed by optical modules and equipment manufacturers [7][17]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on key players in various sectors: - Liquid Cooling: Invec, Kexin Technology, Dingtong Technology, Feirongda, Yidong Electronics, Feilong Co., and Sixuan New Materials [7][17]. - OCS: Guangku Technology, Lingyun Light, Tengjing Technology, Saiwei Electronics, Tianfu Communication, and Changxin Bochuang [7][17]. - Domestic Supernodes: Luxshare Precision, Huiju Technology, Huafeng Technology, Wokel Nuclear Materials, Ruikeda, and AVIC Optoelectronics [7][17]. - Commercial Aerospace: Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology, Bolite, Sruin New Materials, Xinke Mobile, Shanghai Hanxun, Tongyu Communication, and Electric Science Chips [7][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for China Mobile (600941.SH) [1] Core Views - The transition from old to new growth drivers is putting short-term pressure on growth, but the company maintains a high dividend value [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with a net profit of 84.2 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [4][12] Summary by Sections C+H Segment - In the personal market, revenue was 244.7 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with a total mobile customer base of 1.005 billion, net adding 560,000 users [5] - The number of 5G network customers reached 599 million, with a penetration rate of 59.6% [5] - The family market revenue grew by 7.4% year-on-year to 75 billion yuan, with 328 million total broadband customers [5] B+N Segment - The government and enterprise market revenue was 118.2 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, with a total of 34.84 million enterprise customers [7] - The mobile cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year, and 5G vertical industry applications are leading the market [7] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company completed capital expenditures of 58.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, with 25.8 billion yuan invested in 5G networks [10] - The company aims for a capital expenditure of 151.2 billion yuan for the full year, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [10] Dividend and Profitability - The company paid a dividend of 2.75 HKD per share in H1 2025, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [11] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 146.3 billion yuan, 154.9 billion yuan, and 163.9 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 6.78, 7.18, and 7.59 yuan [12][14]

Investment Highlights - The new VPH REIT (508082.SH) is based on the Ningbo Shanjing Outlet, with an asset value of CNY 2.901 billion[2] - The outlet has a commercial area of 83,300 square meters and a high occupancy rate of 99.91% expected by the end of 2024[2] Issuance and Valuation - The REIT will issue 1 billion units, with allocations of 70% for strategic placement, 21% for offline, and 9% for public[3] - The initial IRR is projected at 7.75%, with expected distributable amounts of CNY 151 million and CNY 164 million for the next two years[3] - The issuance price is set at CNY 3.48, with a P/NAV of 1.20 times and a corresponding P/FFO of 23.05 times[3] Market Comparison and Target Price - The average P/NAV for comparable REITs is 1.41 times, with a median P/FFO of 25.02 times and a TTM dividend yield of 3.69%[4] - The target price for VPH REIT is estimated between CNY 4.58 and CNY 5.46, representing a potential increase of 32% to 57% from the issuance price[4] Risk Factors - Risks include consumer downturns, increased competition, operational inefficiencies, and potential declines in market valuations[5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the company as a "specialized and innovative" small giant in the field of polymer additives and functional polymer materials, focusing on research, production, and sales of products such as compatibilizers, toughening agents, and adhesive resins [5] - The global polymer additives market reached a size of USD 110.3 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.65% from 2013 to 2021. The Chinese plastic additives market is projected to grow from USD 7.39 billion in 2020 to USD 9.78 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 4.78% [5] - The company has a strong technical research and development capability, holding 51 invention patents and offering high-performance products that cater to various industries, including automotive, cables, electronics, composite materials, barrier packaging, and photovoltaic components [5] Market Trends - The polymer additives and functional polymer materials industry is experiencing rapid growth globally, with increasing demand across various downstream applications. The automotive sector is particularly focused on lightweight materials for electric vehicles, while the cable industry emphasizes low-smoke, halogen-free flame retardant materials [5] - The market for high-performance, environmentally friendly, and specialized polymer materials is expected to continue expanding, with specific segments like automotive lightweight materials and photovoltaic packaging materials maintaining strong demand over the next five years [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 555.6 million in 2022 to CNY 611.1 million in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.02%, 2.44%, and 7.26% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 21.86 million in 2022 to CNY 55.94 million in 2024, with significant growth in 2023 [5] - The company's estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is 10.53, which is considered relatively low compared to comparable companies in the industry [6]