金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 06 月 08 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 韩乾 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522100001 hanqian@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： 小 市 值 、 成 长 因 子 表 现 较 好 -20250607》 2025-06-07 2 《金融工程：金融工程-基金风格配 置监控周报：权益基金连续两周上调大 盘股票仓位》 2025-06-02 3 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业景 气度在上行？——细分行业景气度跟踪 -20250601》 2025-06-01 金融工程 证券研究报告 基金风格配置监控周报： 权益基金本周上调小盘股票仓位 公募基金风格监控 基金季报中披露有基金前十大重仓股，同时企业季度报告中披露有企业的 前十大股东信息（主要使用上市公司 1、3 季度十大股东信息），结合这两 部分信息我们可以得到基金持仓更加详细的重仓股信息。因此模拟全部股 票持仓只需要估计基金剩余的非重仓持股明细。 基金季报（T 期）披露有股票 ...

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 14.81%, exceeding the benchmark by 14.17% [11] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [13] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.88%, with an annualized excess return of 27.23% [16] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for the strategy is 20.66%, outperforming the benchmark by 20.02% [16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PBROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [18] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 13.29% relative to the CSI 300 index [22] - The strategy has achieved a weekly excess return of 2.57% [22]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry as a key investment theme for the year, anticipating that 2025 may become a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring AI industry dynamics and investment opportunities in AI applications, alongside a focus on the "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" core investment targets [3][20] - The report highlights the acceleration of low-orbit satellite development and the promotion of the low-altitude economy, recommending companies involved in these sectors [24] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations for optical modules and devices include: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology; suggested companies include: Guangxun Technology, Suosi, Dingtong Technology, and others [4][22] - For switch server PCBs, key recommendations are: Hudian Co., ZTE Corporation, and Unisplendour; suggested companies include: Shengke Communication, Ruijie Networks, and others [4][22] - Low valuation and high dividend companies in cloud and computing IDC resources include: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][22] - AIDC and cooling solutions key recommendations include: Yingweike, Runze Technology, and others; suggested companies include: Shenling Environment, Hongjing Technology, and others [4][22] - AIGC applications and edge computing key recommendations include: Yiyuan Communication, Guanghetong, and Meige Intelligent; suggested companies include: Caixun Co., Mengwang Technology, and others [4][22] 2. Offshore Wind and Marine Cables - Key recommendations for marine cables include: Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][23] - The report suggests focusing on companies with recovery potential in overseas markets, including: Huace Navigation, Weisheng Information, and others [5][23] 3. Satellite Internet and Low Altitude Economy - The report highlights the acceleration of national defense informatization and low-orbit satellite development, recommending companies such as Huace Navigation and Haige Communication; suggested companies include: Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology, and others [6][24] 4. Market Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 5.06% during the week of June 3-6, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.18 percentage points [25] - Notable individual stock performances include: Huamai Technology, Zhongjia Bochuang, and Taicheng Light, which saw significant increases [26][29]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI applications and domestic substitution efforts [5] - The release of AI glasses by major companies like ByteDance and Xiaomi is anticipated to catalyze growth in the related supply chain [2][13] - The storage sector is experiencing price increases across various products, with DDR4 and LPDDR4X leading the price surge [3][20] Summary by Sections AI Glasses - ByteDance is in the substantial development phase of its self-developed AI glasses, integrating its "Doubao" model for visual interaction and lightweight design, potentially using the Hengxuan main control chip [2][14] - Xiaomi is also expected to enter the AI smart glasses market, leveraging its existing expertise in smart eyewear [2][18] Storage Market Overview - The storage market has seen a price increase for DDR4 and LPDDR4X products, with DDR4 8G 2666Mbps prices rising over 50% [3][21] - Embedded storage prices have generally increased by 5-10%, driven by rising NAND resource prices [3][21] - The NAND Flash market is projected to see contract price increases of 3-8% in Q2 2025 and 5-10% in Q3 2025 [4][22] Market Trends and Predictions - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive performance elasticity in enterprise storage products [4][5] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a recovery in the industrial control market, indicating a positive trend for the analog segment [5] - The overall semiconductor market is projected to outperform major indices, with significant growth in the IC design sector [63][69]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI applications and domestic substitution efforts [5] - The storage sector is experiencing a price increase, with DDR4 and LPDDR4X leading the rise, and projections indicate further price growth in Q3 2025 [4][20] - The release of AI glasses by major companies like ByteDance and Xiaomi is anticipated to catalyze growth in the related supply chain [2][13] Summary by Sections AI Glasses - ByteDance is advancing its self-developed AI glasses, focusing on visual interaction and lightweight design, potentially using the Hengxuan main control chip [2][14] - Xiaomi is also expected to enter the AI smart glasses market, leveraging its existing expertise in smart eyewear [2][18] Storage Market Overview - The storage market has seen a significant price increase, particularly in DDR4 products, with an increase of over 50% for the 8G 2666Mbps variant [21][24] - Embedded storage prices have risen by 5-10%, driven by NAND resource price increases [21] - LPDDR products, especially low-capacity ones, have seen substantial price hikes, with LPDDR4 16Gb increasing by 66.7% [21][54] Q3 Outlook - NAND Flash contract prices are expected to rise by 3-8% in Q2 2025 and 5-10% in Q3 2025, while DDR4 prices are projected to increase by 18-23% in Q3 [4][22] - The demand for enterprise storage is expected to remain robust due to AI infrastructure needs and domestic substitution [4][5] Market Performance - The semiconductor sector outperformed major indices in the last week, with a 3.245% increase in the semiconductor industry index [63][67] - The IC design sector showed the highest growth among semiconductor sub-sectors, with a 4.5% increase [69]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry as a key investment theme for the year, anticipating that 2025 may become a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring AI industry dynamics and investment opportunities in AI applications, as well as the potential for growth in the satellite internet sector due to recent domestic developments [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include: - Optical modules & optical devices: Focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [4][22] - Switches and server PCBs: Recommended companies include Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][22] - Low valuation, high dividend companies in cloud and computing IDC resources: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][22] - AIDC & cooling solutions: Key recommendations include Yingweike and Runze Technology [4][22] - AIGC applications/edge computing: Focus on companies like Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][22] 2. Offshore Wind and Submarine Cables - Key recommendations for submarine cables: Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][23] - Focus on recovery and concentration of leading companies in overseas markets, with recommendations including Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [5][23] 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - Accelerated development of low-orbit satellites and low-altitude economy, with key recommendations including Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][24] - Suggested companies to watch include Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology [6][24] 4. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 5.06% during the week of June 3-6, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.18 percentage points [25] - Notable individual stock performances included Huamai Technology and Zhongjia Bochuang, both showing significant gains [26][29]

Market Review - The A-share market exhibited a narrow fluctuation pattern in May, with the average monthly trading volume remaining around 1.2 trillion yuan, consistent with the previous month [3][9] - The pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors showed strong performance, with the highest consecutive trading limits primarily among ST stocks [3][9] - The margin trading balance showed a slow increase in May, but the net inflow of main funds slowed down in the latter half of the month [17][19] Policy Dynamics - A comprehensive set of financial policies was introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [24][25] - The "Digital China Construction 2025 Action Plan" aims for the digital economy's core industry value-added to exceed 10% of GDP by the end of 2025, with a computing power scale exceeding 300 EFLOPS [3][20] - The introduction of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong marks a significant step in promoting financial innovation while maintaining stability in the digital asset sector [3][20] Industry Trends - The evolution of large models towards multimodal capabilities is highlighted, with significant advancements in AI technologies from companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent [3][32] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized accelerating the development of 5G-A and 6G technologies, indicating a strong push towards advanced telecommunications [3][32] - The "Intelligent Transformation Implementation Plan for the Pharmaceutical Industry (2025-2030)" aims to enhance the digital transformation of the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on smart drug development and production processes [29][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 530 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 46.3%. The gross margin was 41.7%, up by 2.9 percentage points year-over-year. Non-GAAP net profit reached 8.6 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [2]. - The total shipment of LiDAR units in Q1 2025 was 195,818 units, a year-over-year increase of 231.3%, with ADAS LiDAR shipments accounting for 146,087 units, up 178.5% year-over-year [2]. - The company has established ADAS partnerships with 23 OEMs globally, covering over 120 vehicle models, and has made significant progress in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The company anticipates strong growth in 2025, projecting revenues between 3 billion to 3.5 billion yuan and LiDAR deliveries of 1.2 to 1.5 million units, with 200,000 units expected in the robotics sector [4]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance Overview - Revenue was 530 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 46.3% - Gross margin stood at 41.7%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year - Non-GAAP net profit was 8.6 million yuan, indicating a return to profitability [2] Business Development - The company has secured ADAS partnerships with 23 OEMs globally, involving over 120 vehicle models - New POC projects with top-tier OEMs in Japan and Europe are underway, with several completed in Q1 2025 - Domestic partnerships include new models from various car manufacturers [2][3] Robotics Sector - The company plans to supply 300,000 units of the JT series LiDAR to a partner in the lawn mowing sector within the next year - Collaborations in the Robotaxi and unmanned delivery sectors are progressing towards commercial operations [3] Production Capacity Expansion - A new production line is set to commence operations in Q3 2025, with an expected annual output of 2 million units by the end of the year - A new factory in Southeast Asia is planned to be operational by late 2026 or early 2027 [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025, with revenue projections of 3 billion to 3.5 billion yuan and LiDAR deliveries of 1.2 to 1.5 million units [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the autonomous driving industry and increasing penetration of L2+/L3 technologies [4]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the valuation of a stock by comparing its book value to its market value [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ BP = \frac{\text{Current Book Value}}{\text{Current Market Value}} $ [13] Factor Name: BP Three-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: BP Three-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current BP within the last three years [13] Factor Name: Quarterly EP (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the profitability of a stock relative to its market price [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly EP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Net Assets}} $ [13] Factor Name: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative profitability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current Quarterly EP within the last year [13] Factor Name: Quarterly SP (Sales-to-Price Ratio) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the revenue generation capability of a stock relative to its market price [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly SP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Revenue}}{\text{Net Assets}} $ [13] Factor Name: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative revenue generation capability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current Quarterly SP within the last year [13] Factor Name: Small Market Cap - **Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect by focusing on smaller companies [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Small Market Cap} = \log(\text{Market Capitalization}) $ [13] Factor Name: 1-Month Reversal - **Construction Idea**: Captures the short-term reversal effect in stock prices [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{1-Month Reversal} = \text{Cumulative Return over the Last 20 Trading Days} $ [13] Factor Name: Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock based on the Fama-French three-factor model [13] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Residual Volatility} = \text{Standard Deviation of Residuals from Fama-French Three-Factor Regression over the Last 20 Trading Days} $ [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **BP**: Weekly IC = -4.17%, Monthly IC = 0.88%, Yearly IC = 1.86%, Historical IC = 2.19% [9] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = -1.08%, Monthly IC = -0.99%, Yearly IC = 2.58%, Historical IC = 1.58% [9] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly IC = 2.10%, Monthly IC = -0.48%, Yearly IC = -0.46%, Historical IC = 1.18% [9] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 4.23%, Monthly IC = 3.81%, Yearly IC = 0.98%, Historical IC = 1.73% [9] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly IC = 0.79%, Monthly IC = 0.93%, Yearly IC = 0.53%, Historical IC = 0.74% [9] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 4.80%, Monthly IC = 2.82%, Yearly IC = 2.87%, Historical IC = 1.83% [9] - **Small Market Cap**: Weekly IC = 10.49%, Monthly IC = 8.17%, Yearly IC = 3.61%, Historical IC = 2.05% [9] - **1-Month Reversal**: Weekly IC = 7.22%, Monthly IC = 1.22%, Yearly IC = 3.40%, Historical IC = 2.22% [9] - **Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly IC = 3.60%, Monthly IC = 1.11%, Yearly IC = 3.49%, Historical IC = 2.48% [9] Excess Return Performance (Long-Only Portfolio) - **BP**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.83%, Monthly Excess Return = -1.04%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.02%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 28.90% [11] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.58%, Monthly Excess Return = -1.51%, Yearly Excess Return = 0.97%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -3.21% [11] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.57%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.10%, Yearly Excess Return = 1.44%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 30.83% [11] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.01%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.51%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.23%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 34.69% [11] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.01%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.49%, Yearly Excess Return = 0.70%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -2.69% [11] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.09%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.25%, Yearly Excess Return = 7.91%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 2.23% [11] - **Small Market Cap**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.96%, Monthly Excess Return = 2.76%, Yearly Excess Return = 18.31%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 62.57% [11] - **1-Month Reversal**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.83%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.76%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.54%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 1.57% [11] - **Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.28%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.75%, Yearly Excess Return = 8.69%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 18.67% [11]

策略报告 | 投资策略 行业比较周报 证券研究报告 中美会谈下，自主可控板块的节奏与机会 核心结论：6 月 5 日，习近平主席同美国总统特朗普通电话，指出美方应实 事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措；并欢迎特朗普再次访 华。双方经贸协商未完待续，自主可控仍是长期逻辑。自主可控的第一个逻 辑是国家政策多年布局下的积累；自主可控的第二个逻辑是国产替代。穿透 到二级行业，短期可以关注估值处于低位的方向，中期关注产业节奏。估值 方面，前期估值处于低位的板块主要为军工、医药、电子；产业节奏方面， 军工→信创→医药→先进制造。 中美关税会谈破冰后，双方经贸协商未完待续，自主可控仍是长期逻辑。5 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美双方关税 中枢回落，后续或仍有多轮协商。一方面，参考 2018 年-2020 年中美经贸谈 判，总共经历了十三轮高级别磋商，历时近两年才签署第一阶段经贸协议。 6 月 5 日，习近平主席同美国总统特朗普通电话，指出美方应实事求是看待 取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措；并欢迎特朗普再次访华。 另一方面，4 月中旬美方发起的 232 调查和 301 调查仍在 ...