行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 19 周周报：它博会归来，如何看宠物经济发展新趋势？ 1、宠物板块：高景气延续，国产替代与消费升级共筑量价双升 1）它博会看点：①今年关注度再上一层。第五届 TOPS 它博会于本周在上海国家会展中心开幕，展会以超 10 万平展览面积、1200 余家展商、8000+ 品牌缔造行业盛况，折射宠物赛道强劲增长动能。展会首日观众数同比激增 43%，创历史新高，核心数据验证行业扩容。②产品和工艺趋势变化：宠 物主粮精细化趋势显著，分龄分阶喂养成为核心升级方向：幼年期主打高蛋白、原生营养（麦富迪奶弗羊奶肉主粮系列），老年期聚焦肠胃调理、关节 养护（麦富迪老年犬粮）；工艺革新驱动高端化：低温烘焙成军备竞赛焦点（领先烘焙鲜肉猫粮、弗列加特鲜肉烘焙粮），鲜粮/湿粮赛道崛起（ZEAL 新西兰进口主食罐），国产技术迭代创新，行业从"粗放供给"迈向"精准营养+体验升级"新周期；③部分参展公司亮点：外资品牌如皇家、渴望、 爱肯拿，国产头部品牌如麦富迪、鲜朗、蓝氏，以及国产宠物用品公司天元宠物等齐聚展会，其中国产品牌表现较为亮眼——麦富迪它博会以"超级 工厂+天性数据研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering a slight profit increase in 2024 and projecting net profits of 5.31 billion CNY in 2025 and 9.2 billion CNY in 2027 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to return to positive revenue and profit growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant contributions from its energy storage segment and continued growth in consumer and power battery sectors [1][2]. - In 2024, the company anticipates a slight decline in revenue to 48.61 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 4.08 billion CNY, followed by a strong recovery in 2025 with revenues reaching 65.63 billion CNY and net profits of 5.32 billion CNY [4][11]. - The company achieved a remarkable 91.90% year-on-year increase in energy storage battery shipments, solidifying its position as the second-largest global supplier in this segment [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: Revenue of 48.78 billion CNY, net profit of 4.05 billion CNY - 2024: Revenue of 48.61 billion CNY, net profit of 4.08 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 65.63 billion CNY, net profit of 5.32 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 88.60 billion CNY, net profit of 6.99 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 115.18 billion CNY, net profit of 9.16 billion CNY [4][11][12]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at -0.35% for 2024, 35% for 2025, and 30% for 2026 [4][11]. - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 0.63% in 2024, 30.43% in 2025, and 31.42% in 2026 [4][11]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.88 in 2023 to 9.68 by 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 7.95% by 2027 [12]. Segment Performance - **Consumer Batteries**: - The consumer battery segment is expected to generate 103 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 23% and a gross margin of 27.6% [10]. - **Energy Storage Batteries**: - The energy storage segment is projected to achieve 190 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 14.7% [10]. - **Power Batteries**: - The power battery segment is forecasted to generate 192 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 20% [10].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has outperformed the market recently, with a 2.23% increase compared to the 2.09% rise in the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] - Significant price increases in cellulose-related products have been observed, highlighting the potential for domestic substitution to drive performance and valuation catalysts, with a strong recommendation for Sanwei Chemical [1][24] - The issuance of special bonds remains high, suggesting a focus on the conversion rhythm of physical construction work in the future [4] Summary by Sections 1. Progress of Domestic Substitution for Cellulose Products - Acetic cellulose (CA) is primarily used in tobacco filters, with China consuming approximately 300,000 tons annually, and Sichuan Pushi, holding a 67% stake by Yibin Paper, has a leading position in the production of diacetate and triacetate [2] - The prices of CAB (cellulose acetate butyrate) and CAP (cellulose acetate propionate) have significantly increased, with imported CAB prices ranging from 188,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton, while domestic prices are between 90,000 and 115,000 yuan/ton, a notable rise from 58,000 yuan/ton in March 2025 [2][24] - Domestic production capabilities for CAB and CAP have been historically monopolized by foreign companies, but local firms like Wuxi Chemical Research Institute and Fujian Hongyan Chemical are developing their production capabilities [3] 2. High-Level Special Bond Issuance and Focus on Infrastructure Work - In April 2025, new local special bonds totaled 230.144 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1.1904 trillion yuan from January to April, marking a year-on-year increase of 467.9 billion yuan [4][29] - The cement shipment rate was reported at 48.07%, with a slight decrease, while the asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, indicating a gradual recovery in construction activity [4][29] 3. Market Review - The construction index rose by 2.23% during the week of May 5-9, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with notable gains in construction decoration and design sectors [5][36] - Key stocks that performed well included Shanshui Bide (+28.1%), ST Saiwei (+21.7%), and ST Chuangxing (+21.5%) [5][36] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in infrastructure sectors like water conservancy, railways, and aviation, with a recommendation for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Jiaoke, and Anhui Construction [41] - It also highlights opportunities in cyclical engineering stocks, particularly in coal chemical projects, recommending companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical for their strong technical capabilities [42]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [10] Core Insights - Japan Tobacco's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 827 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, driven by its core tobacco business [3] - The reduced-risk products segment saw revenue of 26.6 billion JPY, up 11.3% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 19.0% [4] - Altria's net revenue for Q1 2025 was 5.259 billion USD, a decrease of 5.7% compared to Q1 2024, while NJOY's market share in the U.S. increased to 6.6% [6] Summary by Sections Japan Tobacco Performance - The company reported an operating profit of 248.8 billion JPY, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, with net profit slightly up by 0.1% to 157.5 billion JPY [3] - Free cash flow fell to -132.2 billion JPY, indicating challenges in cash generation despite revenue growth [3] Reduced-Risk Products - The reduced-risk products segment's sales volume reached 3 billion units, a 19.0% increase, with the HTS category growing by 27.7% [4] - In Japan, the reduced-risk products market accounted for approximately 46.1% of the total tobacco market, with the company's market share rising to 14.8% [4] Altria's Performance - Altria's diluted EPS for Q1 2025 was 1.23 USD, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year increase despite a decline in overall net revenue [6][8] - The company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of 873 million USD due to the ITC's import ban on NJOY ACE products [7] Strategic Decisions - Japan Tobacco announced a significant strategic decision to divest its pharmaceutical business, focusing on tobacco and processed food sectors [5] - Altria plans to repurchase 1 billion USD worth of shares in 2025, having already repurchased 5.7 million shares in Q1 at an average price of 56.97 USD [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 76.88 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in China have returned to the top position, with a total of 13.3 million units shipped in Q1 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth and capturing a 19% market share [1]. - The AIoT segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 52% year-on-year to 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a gross margin projected to rise to 24.1% [2]. - The YU7 model is anticipated to launch between June and July 2025, with multiple range options, potentially replicating the sales success of the SU7 model [2]. - Xiaomi's automotive production capacity is set to expand, with the Beijing factory expected to start operations mid-year, contributing to a total capacity of 300,000 vehicles [3]. - The report projects Xiaomi's total revenue for 2025 and 2026 to be 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 50.42 billion CNY with a gross margin of 12.5% [1]. AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is projected to grow significantly, with a revenue forecast of 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025 and a gross margin increase to 24.1% [2]. Automotive Business - The SU7 model's delivery reached 76,000 units in Q1 2025, generating an estimated revenue of 18.8 billion CNY with a gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - The forecast for total automotive shipments in 2025 has been raised to 400,000 units [3]. Financial Projections - The report revises total revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has outperformed the market recently, with a 2.23% increase compared to the 2.09% rise in the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] - Significant price increases in cellulose-related products have been observed, highlighting the potential for domestic substitution to drive performance and valuation catalysts, with a strong recommendation for Sanwei Chemical [1][24] - The issuance of special bonds remains high, suggesting a focus on the conversion rhythm of physical construction work in the future [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for coal chemical projects, likely receiving additional policy support [1] Summary by Sections 1. Progress of Domestic Substitution for Cellulose Products - Acetate cellulose (CA) is primarily used in tobacco filters, with China consuming approximately 300,000 tons annually, and Sichuan Pushi holding a leading position in production [2] - The prices of CAB (cellulose acetate butyrate) and CAP (cellulose acetate propionate) have significantly increased, with domestic CAB prices rising to 90,000-115,000 RMB/ton from 58,000 RMB/ton earlier in the year [2][24] - Sanwei Chemical is enhancing its production capacity for cellulose and its derivatives, with a projected annual capacity of 15,000 tons expected to be operational by December 2025 [3][24] 2. Special Bond Issuance and Infrastructure Work - In April 2025, new local special bonds totaled 230.144 billion RMB, with a cumulative issuance of 1.1904 trillion RMB from January to April, marking a year-on-year increase of 467.9 billion RMB [4][29] - The cement shipment rate was reported at 48.07%, indicating a slight decrease, while the asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, showing a slight increase [4][29] 3. Market Review - The construction index rose by 2.23% during the week of May 5-9, with notable gains in the building decoration and design sectors, which increased by 5.91% and 4.43% respectively [5][36] - Top-performing stocks included Shanshui Bide (+28.1%) and ST Saiwei (+21.7%) [5][36] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in infrastructure sectors such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation, with recommendations for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [41] - Emphasis on cyclical opportunities in the construction sector, with a positive outlook for companies involved in coal chemical projects, particularly Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [42]

公司报告 | 季报点评 公司自 2001 年创建以来，始终深耕锦纶产业，锦纶在强度和耐磨性、吸湿 性等方面具有突出特点，其广泛应用于服装行业中的超轻风衣、冲锋衣、 羽绒服、瑜伽服、速干衣、防寒服、休闲夹克、运动服、户外帐篷、睡袋 等，户外风潮有望带动锦纶需求。 江苏年产 10 万吨再生差别化锦纶丝项目和 6 万吨 PA66 差别化锦纶丝项目 已投产，2024 年取得了较好的效益。江苏织染项目于 2024 年 9 月开工建 设，目前项目建设正按计划有序推进，今年上半年将陆续有产能投产，项 目建成投产后将打通江苏淮安生产基地高端锦纶一体化产业链，进一步巩 固公司的行业地位。 公司实现营收 15 亿，同比+0.4%，归母净利润 1.6 亿，同比+9%，扣非归母 净利润 1.0 亿，同比-23%；非经常性损益 0.6 亿。 毛利率 22%，同比-1pct；净利率 11%，同比+1pct； 销售费率 1.16%，同比基本持平；管理费率/财务费率分别为 4.29%、2.23%， 同比均+1pct。 公司主要产品锦纶长丝销售 5.4 万吨，平均吨价 2.1 万元，同比-8.5%；原 材料己内酰胺采购吨价 0.9 万元，尼龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5][4] Core Views - The company benefits from the recent demand for outdoor and nylon products, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Vietnam [2][3] - The company has reported a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of nylon filament decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin stands at 22%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin is 11%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 860 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.97, 1.24, and 1.54 yuan for the same years [4] Production Capacity and Projects - The company has launched a 100,000-ton differentiated recycled nylon filament project and a 60,000-ton PA66 differentiated nylon filament project in Jiangsu, which are expected to yield good results in 2024 [2] - A new production base is being established in Vietnam with a total investment of no more than 100 million USD, aimed at optimizing the global supply chain [3] Market Position and Product Development - The company has established raw material recycling channels to ensure the supply of recycled nylon, with ongoing improvements in product quality and customer base expansion [3] - The company’s nylon 66 products are recognized for their excellent performance in various applications, including leisure sports and outdoor clothing [3]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.59 CNY, while the current price is 8.79 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential driven by its chemical business, which serves as a stabilizing force for performance and a catalyst for stock price appreciation [1][14]. - The acquisition of Nuoao Chemical has substantially improved the company's financials, transitioning it from a pure engineering firm to a dual-driven model of "engineering + chemicals" [14]. - The company is the largest producer of n-propanol in China, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year, which allows it to benefit from price increases in chemical products [1][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with n-propanol sales projected to account for 55% of total revenue by 2024 [1][14]. - The company has a flexible production line that can switch raw materials to produce higher-margin products, mitigating the impact of price fluctuations [1][26]. Engineering Business - The company leads in sulfur recovery device contracts, with a total of 240 sets designed and constructed, amounting to a capacity of 12.83 million tons/year [2]. - Significant contracts, such as the 1.307 billion CNY order from Beifang Huajin, are expected to lead to concentrated revenue recognition in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 260 million CNY for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 98.8%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.6% [3][24]. - As of Q1 2025, the company holds 1.8 billion CNY in cash with a low debt ratio of 17.85%, indicating a strong financial safety margin [3][24]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its high-end materials projects, with new capacities for isooctanoic acid and cellulose derivatives expected to contribute to revenue growth [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.8 billion CNY, 4.9 billion CNY, and 6.0 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].