Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益点评 2025 年 6 月 20 日 美联储为什么难降息 总统特朗普已数次"喊话"降息，但25年已过半仍未迎来年内首次降息，在相较理想 的通胀数据支撑下，美联储为什么仍如此难下降息决定？通过解读本次议息会议，我 们认为站在美联储角度，incoming data固然是重要决策，但evolving outlook可能 更为重要。目前关税可能引发的通胀仍未在数据层面被观察到，进口商主要提供的是 关税政策前囤积的库存商品，无法反应最终会由供应链上哪个环节承担主要关税。据 联储预测，通胀升温可能会于夏季出现，同时，威尔也反复提及目前就业市场的稳定 提供给美联储继续观察的机会，叠加关税政策还未敲定，因此，按兵不动的决策目前 难以被改变。 有关何时能开启降息，我们认为仍会落于此三种情形：①关税明确性的轻落地，很可 能是市场此前所预期的10%以内的关税，会给予联储较为明确的关税不会持续性产生 通胀的信号。②关税落地虽略高于预期，但在较长一段时间内，通胀依旧能维持稳定 甚至下行。 ③失业率等关键指标持续性落入衰退区间，引发衰退式降息。 ➢ 票委决议与预期 美 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift towards "institutional opening" in cross-border financial policies, moving from traditional "policy incentives" to a more integrated system that aligns China's financial market rules with international standards [2][12][10] - Key policies announced include the establishment of an interbank market transaction reporting system, a digital RMB international operation center, and personal credit institutions, which collectively aim to create a robust foundation for financial reform [10][12][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing openness with risk control, utilizing tools such as offshore bonds and foreign exchange futures to enhance cross-border financial operations while ensuring risk management [2][12][10] Group 2 - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms is noted, addressing core issues such as financing difficulties for unprofitable tech companies and the lack of long-term capital [2][15][16] - The introduction of a new tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to facilitate the listing of unprofitable companies, alongside six additional reform measures to enhance the financing environment for early-stage and hard-tech enterprises [15][16][10] - The report outlines a comprehensive approach to improve the capital market structure, increase the weight and influence of the tech sector, and provide a strong financial engine for China's technological revolution and industrial transformation [16][15][10] Group 3 - Future investment opportunities are suggested in high-growth sectors such as domestic computing power industrial mother machines and national defense industries, driven by precise policy support and global technological resonance [3][23] - The report also indicates a focus on offshore and digitalization trends within financial openness and cross-border innovation, particularly for brokerage firms and banks [3][23]

Group 1 - The report highlights the launch of a series of strategic and practical policy measures by key financial department leaders during the Lujiazui Forum on June 18, 2025, aimed at constructing a new financial system characterized by technology empowerment, institutional openness, structural optimization, and risk control [2][8] - The forum's theme, "Financial Opening and Cooperation in the Global Economic Change and High-Quality Development," reflects a critical moment in the global economic landscape and technological revolution [2][8] - The new financial system is positioned to lead transformation in China's financial landscape, emphasizing the importance of digital infrastructure and regulatory frameworks [9][10] Group 2 - The report outlines eight key policies announced by the People's Bank of China, focusing on enhancing digital financial infrastructure and governance, including the establishment of a trading report database and the internationalization of the digital renminbi [9] - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes a "dual-directional" financial ecosystem, advocating for rule alignment with international standards and expanding foreign investment participation in various financial sectors [10][12] - The report discusses the capital market's role in supporting technological innovation, highlighting reforms such as the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the introduction of new listing standards for innovative companies [13] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the resilience of the foreign exchange market, supported by a stable economic environment and active cross-border investments, which are crucial for ongoing reforms and openness [14] - It notes the collaborative nature of the new financial system, integrating technology, openness, reform, and stability as core components [15][17] - The report concludes that the policies released during the Lujiazui Forum signal a strong commitment to building a new financial system that prioritizes technology, institutional openness, and support for the real economy, particularly in technological innovation [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of new consumption logic in cultural tourism, particularly during the summer peak season, and highlights the synergy between IP and scenic spots [2][3] - The report identifies strong performance in the trendy toy sector, driven by supportive consumption policies and a relaxed consumer mindset, with leading companies like Pop Mart and Blok achieving significant weekly stock price increases [3][22] - In the gold and jewelry sector, brands with high terminal store efficiency and significant expansion potential are recommended, particularly in the context of rising gold prices [4] - The beauty and personal care segment is experiencing structural opportunities due to generational consumption habits and product innovation, with a focus on high-growth potential companies [5][41] - The medical aesthetics industry is seeing a recovery in demand, with a focus on new product launches in Q3, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The report tracks the duty-free industry, noting strategic shifts in companies like Zhuhai Duty-Free Group and China Duty-Free Group, which are focusing on core business and expanding overseas [12][13] - Scenic area trends indicate a recovery in outbound flight volumes, with a focus on summer tourism opportunities in regions like Xiyu and Changbai Mountain [14][19] 2. Trendy Toys - The trendy toy sector is benefiting from a strong consumer response, with significant online sales growth reported for the first five months of 2025 [22][23] - Leading companies in this sector, such as Pop Mart, are experiencing substantial sales increases, driven by popular IPs and new product launches [26] 3. Hotels - Hotel performance metrics show a decline in RevPAR and occupancy rates due to seasonal fluctuations, with a notable impact from the Dragon Boat Festival [29][30] - Supply growth remains stable, particularly in lower-tier markets, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [30] 4. Education - The report highlights a stable employment situation with a slight decrease in urban unemployment rates, suggesting a steady demand for vocational training and exam preparation services [62][63] - Companies like China Oriental Education and Xueda Education are recommended due to their potential to benefit from rising educational demands [41] 5. Medical Aesthetics and Beauty - The medical aesthetics sector is poised for growth with new product approvals and a focus on market share expansion among leading companies [42][43] - The beauty segment is characterized by a shift towards high-end and efficacy-driven products, with brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings recommended for their growth potential [5][50]

Industry Overview - The CDMO industry in China has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.9% from 2018 to 2023, growing from 16 billion RMB to 85.9 billion RMB[6] - By 2028, the market is expected to reach 208.4 billion RMB, and by 2033, it is projected to reach 536.9 billion RMB[6] Competitive Advantages - China has over 220 million talent resources, providing a strong competitive edge for the CDMO industry[1] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by technological deepening, global expansion, and ecological integration, despite facing challenges such as geopolitical tensions and overcapacity[7] Investment Trends - From 2020 to 2024, 63.2% of investment events in the CDMO sector were in early-stage projects, indicating a trend towards supporting emerging enterprises[7] - Active mergers and acquisitions from 2020 to 2025 show companies are enhancing their market competitiveness through vertical integration across the supply chain[7] Market Performance - In the week of June 9-13, 2025, the medical device sector led with a gain of 1.67%, while traditional Chinese medicine followed with a 1.52% increase[8] - The highest valuation levels were observed in chemical pharmaceuticals (78.81 times) and biological products (61.33 times) during the same period[8] Risks - Key risks include potential underperformance in technology development, changes in macro demand, and geopolitical impacts[22]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Initiatives - The People's Bank of China announced eight monetary policy measures to support the development of new productive forces and mitigate external risks[2] - Initiatives include offshore trade financial services reform pilot in Shanghai and the development of offshore bonds to enhance financing channels for enterprises[3] - The optimization of free trade account functions aims to improve cross-border trade and investment efficiency, facilitating high-level opening up in Shanghai[3] Group 2: Support for Innovative Enterprises - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced support for unprofitable innovative enterprises to list, enhancing long-term capital support for tech innovation[4] - The introduction of a new listing standard for unprofitable companies on the ChiNext and STAR Market is expected to boost capital market financing for tech firms[4] - This policy aims to provide a better exit channel for patient capital and enhance the overall activity of tech innovation and industrialization[4] Group 3: Market Transparency and Data Quality - The establishment of a trading report database in the interbank market is intended to improve data transparency and policy transmission efficiency[4] - The creation of a digital RMB international operation center will promote the internationalization of the digital currency and support financial market development[4] - The introduction of diversified personal credit products aims to enhance the social credit system and improve financial institutions' services[4]

Group 1 - The CDMO industry is a crucial partner for pharmaceutical companies, providing process development and production services. China has over 220 million talent resources, giving the CDMO industry a strong competitive edge [3][9]. - From 2018 to 2023, the Chinese CDMO market grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.9%, increasing from 16 billion RMB to 85.9 billion RMB. It is projected to reach 208.4 billion RMB by 2028 and 536.9 billion RMB by 2033 [3][9][10]. - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by "technology deepening, global expansion, and ecological integration," but it faces challenges such as geopolitical issues, overcapacity, and technological disruption [10]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the medical and pharmaceutical sectors saw mixed performance, with six sub-industries showing varied returns. Medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine led the gains, while medical services and pharmaceutical commerce had lower increases [11]. - The report indicates that the valuation levels for the chemical pharmaceutical sector were the highest at 78.81 times, followed by biological products at 61.33 times, while traditional Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical commerce had lower valuations [11]. - The report emphasizes the increasing focus on early-stage projects in the CDMO industry, with 63.2% of financing events occurring in the A+ round or earlier, indicating a trend towards supporting emerging companies [10].

Group 1: Core Views - The Chinese capital market is expected to present a "slow bull" pattern characterized by "wave-like progress" in the second half of 2025 [2][51] - The international macroeconomic backdrop shows a slowdown in US economic growth, with the Federal Reserve likely to delay interest rate cuts, anticipating only one cut in the second half of 2025 [2][7] - China's macroeconomic landscape continues to promote high-quality development, with various incentive policies being implemented to support economic growth [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 5%, with total GDP expected to reach approximately 141.7 trillion yuan in 2025 [36][34] - The government has emphasized high-quality development in its work report, focusing on technology and macroeconomic stability [37][34] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets are being introduced, with a strong intention to support the real economy [37][45] Group 3: Capital Market - The capital market is entering a new development phase, with significant differences in performance among various sectors, particularly small-cap and technology stocks [2][52] - The market's valuation levels have reached historically high points, with some indices experiencing significant gains since September 2024 [52][54] - Structural opportunities are expected to emerge as the market navigates between reality and policy interactions [51][52] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests using high-dividend sectors such as coal and hydropower as a defensive measure, while focusing on new productive forces in technology and military sectors as offensive strategies [2][63] - The emphasis on new productive forces is seen as crucial for countering external pressures and ensuring industrial security [63][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the consumer electronics sector [8] Core Insights - The electronic sector index increased by 0.73% during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.98 percentage points [1][15] - The brand consumer electronics segment saw significant growth, with a notable increase of 65.19% [1][17] - The report highlights the successful listing of Ying Shi Innovation Technology on the STAR Market, with a first-day opening price of 182 CNY per share, representing a 285% increase from the issue price [88] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - The electronic sector index rose by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.98 percentage points [1][15] - The brand consumer electronics, printed circuit boards, and other electronics III sectors had the highest increases, at 65.19%, 2.22%, and 1.64% respectively [1][15] 2. Consumer Electronics Demand - In Q1 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 1.53% year-on-year, totaling 305 million units [27] - Global PC shipments in Q1 2025 grew by 4.98% year-on-year, reaching 63.2 million units [41] - The wearable market saw a 13% increase in global shipments of wearable wristbands in Q1 2025, totaling 47 million units [53] - AI smart glasses shipments surged by 215.79% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 600,000 units [74] 3. Industry Dynamics - Ying Shi Innovation Technology's listing on June 11, 2025, raised 1.938 billion CNY, marking the highest fundraising scale on the STAR Market for 2025 [88] - The company reported a revenue of 1.355 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.7% [88] - The report notes that Ying Shi Innovation has a strong focus on R&D, with a cumulative investment of 1.48 billion CNY over the past three years [89] 4. Key Company Announcements - Ying Shi Innovation's successful listing and significant first-day performance highlight the potential for growth in the consumer electronics sector [88] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous investment in R&D to maintain competitive advantages in technology [89]

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, boosted by subsidies in home appliances and communications[1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year growth of 53.0%, while communication equipment grew by 33.0%, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[1] - Retail sales of essential goods and dining services grew by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year in May, a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9%, down by 0.9 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, marking the lowest since October 2024[2] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[2] - Housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing down to 6.2%[2] - The textile industry, significantly impacted by previous high tariffs, saw a notable decline of 2.3 percentage points compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%[2] - Export-oriented industries such as automotive and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[2] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a "two strong, two weak" scenario, with robust durable goods consumption and a slowdown in real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[2] - A potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market, along with an expected increase in consumer subsidies of 200 billion yuan to counteract potential export declines[2] - The central government's fiscal expansion is likely to be a key source of incremental policy support in the second half of the year[2]