Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April 29, the interest rates of credit bonds have been oscillating downward. The 5-year, 6-year, and 7-year medium-term notes have performed well. The historical percentile of the valuation of industrial bonds with a maturity of over 5 years is generally between 3% and 7% [15]. - Local governments are implementing various measures to boost economic development, aiming to transform into "service-oriented governments" and enhance the competitiveness of local enterprises and cities [5][67]. - In the financial bond market, the yields of various financial bond varieties have declined, and the credit spreads have actively narrowed. The current preferred strategy is the coupon strategy. For Tier 2 perpetual bonds, institutions with stable liability ends can consider extending the duration in advance [5][6][87]. Summary by Related Catalogs 5y+ Industrial Bonds Selection - Consider central state-owned enterprises with significant social responsibilities and influence, such as China Chengtong and China Guoxin. For example, 25 Chengtong Holdings MTN001 has a remaining term of 9.9836 years and a ChinaBond exercise valuation of around 2.17% [15]. - Focus on provincial state-owned enterprises with investment or both urban investment and industrial attributes, like Nantong Metro, Shandong Hi-Speed, and Yuexiu Group. Institutions with high return requirements can consider Shuidi Group and Shaanxi Tourism Group. For instance, 25 Shuidi Group MTN007 has a remaining term of 2.9479 + 2 years and a ChinaBond exercise valuation of around 2.56%, and 25 Shaanxi Tourism V1 has a remaining term of 9.8603 years and a ChinaBond exercise valuation of around 3.27% [16]. - Pay attention to large provincial comprehensive investment entities, such as Fujian Investment & Development Group, which is involved in industries like electricity, gas, financial services, and railways [16]. - Focus on high-grade long-term credit bonds with good liquidity, such as Kunpeng Capital, Hengjian Holdings, and China Everbright Group. China Everbright Group has over 10-year outstanding bonds worth 3 billion yuan and a valuation of about 2.2% [17]. Urban Investment Bonds and Regional Macroeconomics Local Governments Stimulate the Economy with Various Measures - Local governments are implementing measures in various aspects, including boosting consumption, talent cultivation, salary mechanisms, institutional opening, attracting foreign investment, urban renewal, debt resolution, platform transformation, and supporting private enterprises, to enhance local market cultivation, guide enterprise transformation, and encourage scientific research innovation [5][67]. - Examples include Guangzhou's plan to boost consumption, Shenzhen's deepening of reform and opening up, Shanghai's promotion of the replication and implementation of pilot measures in the free trade zone, Shandong's support for the high-quality development of the private economy, and the improvement of the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises [46][51][56][60][66]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on "major economic provinces" with good development momentum and debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Shanghai, and Beijing. Consider extending the duration to 5 years [71]. - Pay attention to regions where significant policies or substantial funds for debt resolution have been implemented, such as Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, and Yunnan. Consider a duration of 3 - 5 years [72]. - Focus on prefecture-level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, such as cities in Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Shanxi, and Jiangxi. Consider a duration of 2 - 3 years [73][76][78]. Financial Bond Weekly Views - The yields of various financial bond varieties have declined, and the credit spreads have actively narrowed. The current preferred strategy is the coupon strategy. For Tier 2 perpetual bonds, institutions with stable liability ends can consider extending the duration in advance. There is still a certain positive carry in short- and medium-term Tier 2 perpetual bonds, and opportunities for spread compression can be explored [6][87]. - The credit spreads of commercial bank bonds with a maturity of over 4 years are at a historical percentile of over 20% since 2022, with greater room for compression. The credit spreads of Tier 2 perpetual bonds with a maturity of over 5 years are also at a historical percentile of over 20%, with potential for spread compression and the possibility of obtaining excess returns in a downward interest rate cycle [6]. - The yield curves of 4-year and 6-year bonds have convex points, providing good riding effects [6].

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速回升创阶段新高，家电通讯补贴效果强化。5 月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 6.4%，较前月回升 1.3 个百分点，创 2024 年以来阶段性 新高。家电通讯两大类消费补贴效果再度得到强化是主要推升因素，当月 家电音像、通讯器材同比分别增长达 53.0%和 33.0%，增速分别较前月上行 达 14.2 和 13.1 个百分点。房地产市场再度趋弱导致对后地产链条耐用品消 费的持续拖累，汽车尽管同样享受以旧换新补贴但同比 1.1%第二个月低位 徘徊，建筑装潢材料、家具同比增速分别下滑 3.9、1.3 个百分点；此外油 价走低亦拖累石油制品同比跌幅扩大 1.3 个百分点。限额以上必需品、必 需品占比较高的限额以下商品零售、餐饮收入同比分别增长 9.6%、5.3%、 5.9%，分别较 4 月上行 0.7、1.3、0.7 个百分点，显示必需品和餐饮等服务 消费增长稳健。 固定投资增速降至年内新低，房地产和传统基建是两大拖累。5 月固 定资产投资同比 2.7%，连续第二个月回落 0.8 个百分点，降至年内增速新 低。房地产开发投资同比-12.0%，跌幅较前月扩大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [52]. Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3654.03 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.68%. Among the six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index decreased by 0.72%, while the lithium battery index increased by 1.62% [3][10]. - The global liquid crystal polymer (LCP) market is approaching a critical transition towards sustainability, with Sumitomo Chemical successfully establishing technology for mass production of bio-based LCP, aiming for commercial supply by the fiscal year 2027 [4][33]. - Major automotive manufacturers, including GAC, BYD, and Geely, announced a reduction in payment terms to within 60 days, marking a significant shift in the automotive industry's competitive landscape [4][28]. Market Overview - The semiconductor materials index reported a decline of 0.72%, while the lithium battery index saw an increase of 1.62%. Other indices, such as the organic silicon materials index and carbon fiber index, also experienced declines [3][10]. - The top-performing companies this week included Pan-Asia Micro透 (22.02%), AkzoNobel (16.69%), and Boqian New Materials (15.64%), while the worst performers included Aoke Co. (-12.92%) and Dongcai Technology (-6.69%) [24][26]. Recent Industry Trends - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have reached a framework agreement, indicating potential easing of trade tensions [28]. - Kuraray announced the global launch of a 100% bio-based ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymer product, marking a significant advancement in sustainable materials [28]. - LG Chem has decided to sell its water treatment business for 1.4 trillion KRW (approximately 73.5 million RMB) as part of its strategy to focus on new growth areas [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance among e-commerce platforms for personal care products in May, with sanitary napkins on Tmall declining by 18% year-on-year, while Douyin saw a growth of 32% [6] - The report emphasizes the potential recovery in the home furnishing sector due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in first-tier cities [6] - The report notes the introduction of new products by companies like Blokus and the launch of the glo Hilo heated tobacco device by British American Tobacco in Japan, indicating innovation and market expansion [6][10] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales and 175 million subsidies issued by May 31, 2025 [6] - The report suggests that the home furnishing industry is expected to gradually recover as most companies are currently valued at historical lows, recommending leading companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home [6] Paper and Packaging - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 yuan/ton (unchanged) and corrugated paper at 2543.13 yuan/ton (down 38.12 yuan/ton) [6] - The report recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics [6] Light Industry Consumption - The report indicates that personal care e-commerce sales are diverging, with sanitary napkins on Tmall down 18% year-on-year, while Douyin saw a 32% increase [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands during the 618 shopping festival, suggesting a favorable outlook for local brands [6] Export Chain - In May, the export value of key light industrial products decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, with ongoing negotiations between China and the US potentially leading to reduced tariffs [6] - The report notes an increase in shipping costs, with the CCFI and SCFI indices rising by 11.2% and 8.1% respectively [6] New Tobacco Products - The glo Hilo device was launched in Japan at a price of approximately $23.44, with a significant improvement in product features compared to previous models [6][10] - The report suggests that the introduction of new heated tobacco products may drive user transition to these innovations [10] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector showed resilience, with the industry index outperforming the market, indicating a positive trend for brands like HLA and Anta [26][29]

Group 1 - The market experienced a fluctuation around the 3400-point mark, with a decline of 0.27% for the week, while only the ChiNext index saw an increase. The leading sectors included pharmaceuticals and cyclical industries, while technology and consumer sectors lagged behind [10][14]. - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 1.3%, which is below the +1 standard deviation threshold, indicating a decline in valuation dispersion [23]. - Market sentiment improved, with the market sentiment index rising by 15.3% to 72.1, reflecting a stronger industry rotation intensity [25]. Group 2 - The upcoming summer movie season is expected to feature a diverse supply of films, with over 60 domestic and foreign films scheduled for release, potentially boosting consumer interest [44]. - The SNEC conference highlighted the industry's consensus on "anti-involution," emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector [45]. - Several major automotive companies have committed to reducing payment terms to suppliers to no more than 60 days, which is anticipated to enhance cash flow within the supply chain [46]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes a return to AI as a main investment theme, alongside opportunities in satellite connectivity and long-term gold investments due to de-dollarization trends. The demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with significant developments in large model iterations and application expectations [49][50]. - The report notes that the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 209.29 billion yuan compared to the previous week, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with a year-on-year increase of 17 percentage points in export penetration rate for new energy vehicles in May [2][10] - The SNEC exhibition showcased new photovoltaic technologies, indicating a shift towards performance enhancement and multi-scenario applications rather than just peak power [3][20][22] - The offshore wind sector is set to see the launch of the UK's seventh round of Contracts for Difference (CfD) in August, with domestic deep-sea demonstration projects gradually starting [4][32][34] - The energy storage sector experienced a remarkable increase in installed capacity, exceeding 200% in May, with a trend towards integrated solar and storage solutions [4][39][42] - The electricity equipment sector is focused on ensuring power supply during peak summer demand, with the first batch of power projects from the "Xinjiang Electricity to Chongqing" initiative coming online [4][49][51] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The automotive industry is implementing measures to reduce internal competition, with major companies committing to shorten supplier payment terms [10] - In May, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [11] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and those leading in fast-charging and high-voltage technologies [12][13] Photovoltaic Sector - The SNEC exhibition highlighted new products from leading companies, with significant advancements in component efficiency and power output [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of matching generation curves with pricing curves as a new value metric in the industry [22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and those with price elasticity in the battery segment [28][29] Wind Power Sector - The UK is preparing for the seventh round of offshore wind CfD, with a significant number of projects eligible to participate [32][33] - The report suggests monitoring companies in the offshore wind supply chain that are expected to see performance improvements [36] Energy Storage Sector - The report notes a substantial increase in new energy storage installations, driven by market demand and regulatory incentives [39][40] - It highlights the trend towards integrated energy solutions and the importance of AI in energy management [42][45] - Investment recommendations focus on quality storage integrators and companies benefiting from the growth of solar-storage solutions [46] Electricity Equipment Sector - The report outlines measures taken by the State Grid to ensure power supply during peak summer, with a focus on enhancing grid capacity [49][50] - It highlights the significance of the "Xinjiang Electricity to Chongqing" project in supporting regional energy needs [51][52] - Investment suggestions include companies involved in overseas expansion and digital grid solutions [56] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The report notes a recovery in manufacturing PMI, indicating improved demand for industrial control components [59] - It highlights innovations in robotics, particularly in humanoid robots and their applications in various sectors [60] - Recommendations include focusing on automation leaders and companies involved in humanoid robotics [61] Hydrogen Sector - The report discusses the initiation of hydrogen energy pilot projects by the National Energy Administration, emphasizing the development of a complete hydrogen supply chain [65][66] - It highlights the rapid advancements in hydrogen production technologies showcased at the SNEC exhibition [67] - Investment suggestions focus on companies involved in hydrogen production and fuel cell systems [67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a bullish outlook on army equipment, driven by the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and the anticipated strong recovery in demand for the military industry by 2025 [42][11] - The military sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" initiatives, the centenary of the military, domestic substitution, and rapid development of military trade, leading to significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand [42][11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military industry index rose by 1.03% from June 9 to June 13, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.25%, resulting in an excess return of 1.29 percentage points [14] - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 3.36%, while the CSI 300 index has decreased by 1.80%, leading to an excess return of 5.16 percentage points [16] Valuation and Funding - As of June 13, the military industry index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 66.71, ranking in the 91.76 percentile, indicating a high configuration value [42][33] - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs increased slightly, with a net inflow of 830 million yuan during the week, although this was a decrease of 689 million yuan from the previous week [27][32] Key Investment Themes - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [42] - Suggested companies for domestic trade include Tianqin Equipment, Baiao Intelligent, and Gaode Infrared [42] - For foreign trade, companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are highlighted [44] - In the self-sufficiency category, companies such as Aerospace Technology and Tunan Co. are recommended [44]

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 15 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 行业库存持续释放，生猪均重降幅扩大 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：行业库存持续释放，出栏均重降幅扩大。（1）本周猪价跌 后小幅反弹。猪价跌破 14 元/公斤后，养殖主体惜售情绪有所增强，叠加 低价二育进场比例增加，带动周后期猪价小幅反弹，6 月 13 日猪价 14.02 元/公斤，周环比-0.05 元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量下滑。端午节过后市场 消费明显下滑，屠企订单量处于低位，本周宰量呈下滑趋势。6 月 7-13 日 涌益样本屠企日均宰杀量为 14.31 万头，周环比-1.83%。（3）本周生猪出 栏均重继续下降。随气温升高，大猪需求量减少，养殖端压栏情绪减弱，6 月多个集团场均有不同程度降重策略，行业出栏均重维持下滑趋势。6 月 12 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.82kg，周环比-0.35kg，已连续四周下降，本周 降幅较前期扩大。展望后市，涌益/钢联/卓创监测 6 月样本企业日均出栏预 计环比+4.39%/+2.84%/+3.88%，供应压力预计增大。叠加气温升高抑制养 殖端压栏增重意愿，行业去库存开启，猪 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][70] Core Viewpoints - The State Council emphasized the need to optimize policies to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market, aiming to halt the decline and stabilize the market [2][12] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 10.68 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first five months of 2025, with household loans increasing by 572.4 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards long-term loans [2][12] - Short-term and medium-term policies are expected to support the recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on interest rate reductions and policy adjustments to stimulate demand [2][12] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is likely to benefit from the gradual recovery of the real estate market, with improved purchasing intentions and capabilities expected to stabilize the market fundamentals [5][12] - The report suggests that the basic fundamentals of the construction materials sector have limited room for further deterioration compared to the end of 2022, with a low dependency on large B channels by leading companies [5][12] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China was 372.8 yuan/ton, showing a 0.1% decrease from the previous week and a 3.5% decrease year-on-year [3][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1197.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the previous week and a 28.0% decrease year-on-year [3][21] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index decreased by 0.33%. The construction materials index dropped by 2.77% [4][56] - Among sub-sectors, the performance varied, with pipe materials down by 0.09%, other building materials down by 2.1%, and cement manufacturing down by 2.7% [4][56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [5][12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in bidding data for medical equipment, with monthly bidding amounts showing year-on-year growth rates ranging from 41% to 113% from December 2024 to May 2025, suggesting a robust demand recovery [4][17]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of innovative drugs, with companies like China Biopharma and Rongchang Bio continuing to see positive developments, supported by government policies optimizing drug procurement [5][41]. - The medical device sector is expected to experience a turning point in financial reporting in Q2 and Q3 2025, as the effects of increased bidding data begin to reflect in company revenues [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance Review - The CITIC Medical Index rose by 1.5% during the week of June 9-13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.8 percentage points, ranking third among CITIC's primary industry classifications [3][41]. - The top five performing stocks for the week included Yiming Pharmaceutical (+38.49%), Saiseng Pharmaceutical (+36.35%), and Aoyang Health (+35.01%) [59]. 2. Equipment Bidding Data - Bidding amounts for medical equipment have shown a consistent increase, with May 2025 seeing a 69% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong recovery in demand [4][17]. - The report predicts that the financial results for companies involved in equipment installation will begin to reflect this demand surge in Q2 2025, while inventory companies may see performance improvements by Q3 2025 [4][26]. 3. Mid to Long-term Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support. It highlights the potential for innovative drugs and medical devices to drive growth, particularly in companies with strong international competitiveness [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Union Medical, Shanhai Mountain, and Mindray Medical, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in bidding data and demand [4][6][27].