华福证券 证券研究报告|行业投资策略 公用事业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年11月29日 纲举目张，助推双碳 ——电力行业2025年度投资策略 证券分析师：严家源 执业证书编号：S0210524050013 联系人：闫燕燕 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ◼ 回顾24年：年初以来用电需求韧性十足，1-9月份，全国规上工业增加值同比增长8.4%；全社会用电量7.41万亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%。供给侧方面，今年前三 季度主要流域来水好转，水电出力显著增加；在大量新增装机推动下，风电和光伏出力呈现双位数增长；水电、绿电出力的提升，挤压了火电电量空间；核电受 机组大修影响，出力基本持平。 ◼ 展望25年：在多年反复打磨后，《能源法》千呼万唤始出来，对现有的《电力法》等能源行业相关法规起到纲举目张的作用。在初步成型的国内碳市场加速与全 球碳市场对接融合的时代浪潮中，《能源法》为"双碳"保驾护航，推动其更高质量地达成目标。 ◼ 水电：关键词——更新改造&抽水蓄能。在节能环保与老旧设备更新的双重政策助推下，水轮机等电站设备的更新改造将带来新一轮的产业链资本开支及电站运 营潜力的释放。抽水蓄 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - Zhongxin Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the pulp molding industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of biodegradable plant fiber molded products, primarily pulp molded food containers, which account for over 97% of its revenue. The company holds approximately 16% of the global market share in pulp molded food containers by value and 20% of the national production [3][4][65]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue of 1.148 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 49% year-on-year [3][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhongxin Co., Ltd. specializes in biodegradable plant fiber molded products, with a total production capacity of 123,700 tons as of September 2024. The company has a significant market presence in the pulp molded food container sector [3][65]. 2. Industry Landscape - The global pulp molding packaging market was valued at approximately 5.111 billion USD in 2022, with food packaging accounting for 44.6% and food containers for 24.2%. The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2023 to 2030 [4][119]. - China is a major supplier in the pulp molding industry, with a production capacity of 1.79 million tons, representing 40.5% of global capacity. The export volume of pulp molded products from China has been increasing, with a 79.4% year-on-year growth in the first eight months of 2024 [4][169]. 3. Company Strengths - The company has a favorable customer structure, with major clients including Amer Care Royal, Huhtamaki, and Eco-Products. The top five customers' revenue contribution has decreased from 58.7% in 2019 to 39.3% in 2023, indicating a diversification of its customer base [5][196]. - The company maintains a cost advantage through local sourcing of raw materials, primarily bagasse pulp and bamboo pulp, which are stable in supply. The production base in Guangxi benefits from the region's abundant sugarcane production [5][204]. 4. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 30%, 24%, and 20% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 19%, and 17% for the same years. The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.31 yuan, 3.95 yuan, and 4.61 yuan, respectively [7][236]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is projected to be 20 times, while the company is valued at a lower PE of 13 times, indicating potential for growth [238].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][28]. Core Insights - The AI toy market is experiencing a surge in popularity, becoming one of the most promising segments in the AI to C (consumer) sector, with innovative products driving sales and high demand [2][3]. - Recent advancements in cloud computing and self-developed chips are enhancing data processing efficiency and reducing costs, which is crucial given the growing demand for cloud services [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant performance improvements of Amazon's Trainium2 chip, which boasts four times the performance and three times the memory capacity of its predecessor, alongside new offerings from Microsoft [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Situation - The AI toy market is booming, with products like ByteDance's "Eye-catching Bag" and Tesla's robot toy achieving high sales and significant price increases in the second-hand market [3][4]. - FoloToy's AI companion toy has sold nearly 20,000 units, while Tesla's robot toy sold out within 24 hours, with second-hand prices reaching $1,300 [3][4]. Application Scenarios - AI toys are designed to meet emotional needs and enhance early education, combining traditional toys with AI technology to provide personalized interactions [4][5]. - The integration of AI into toys is leading to a new trend in the toy industry, with products becoming more interactive and appealing to consumers [4][5]. Business Model - FoloToy employs a dual-market strategy, offering both consumer and business solutions, and its AI suite is compatible with major AI platforms like OpenAI and Microsoft Azure [5][11]. - The AI suite enhances the adaptability and market fit of products, allowing for better integration with other toys and collaboration with businesses [5][11].

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 行 业 研 究 华福证券 铝月报（202411） 矿端复产仍有阻力，铝价中长期乐观预期不改 投资要点： ➢ 氧化铝：10月氧化铝产量环比回升，净出口16.4万吨。1）供给： 2024年10月我国氧化铝产量为728.7万吨，同比+6.5%，环比+5.4%，24年 1-10月氧化铝累计产量为6886.8万吨，同比+3.9%；2）进出口：10月氧化 铝净进口-16.4万吨，同比-19.3万吨/-673.2%，环比-6.6万吨/-67.1%， 1-10月氧化铝净进口-10.1万吨，同比-123.3%；3）利润：本月矿石供应 缓解有限，氧化铝含税完全成本重心继续上移，月均值为2949.2元/吨， 行业平均利润为1649.3元/吨，环比+50.2%。 ➢ 电解铝：10月电解铝产量延续增势，净进口14.8万吨。1）供给： 2024年10月，中国电解铝产量372.5万吨，环比+13.83万吨/3.9%，同比 +5.05万吨/1.4%，2024年1-10月电解铝累计产量3597.8万吨，同比增加 133.5万吨/3.9%；2）进出口：10月电解铝净进口量为15.9万吨， ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 行 业 定 期 研 究 行 业 研 究 铜月报（202411） 10 月铜矿进口环比回落，加工费持稳处于低位 投资要点： ➢ 原料端：铜矿进口环比下降，铜废进口环比上升。1）铜矿进出口： 10月铜矿进口数量为231万吨(智利65.1+秘鲁64.2)，环比-12.1万吨/- 5.0%；1-10月铜矿进口量为2338.5万吨(智利746.9+秘鲁589.4)，同比 +77.7万吨/+3.4%。2）废铜：1）进出口：10月我国废铜进口量为18.3万 吨，同比+2.8万吨/+17.9%，环比+2.3万吨/+14.2%。2024年1-10月废铜进 口量185.7万吨，同比+25.4万吨/+15.8%；2）利润：10月精废价差环比小 幅回落，本月精废差月均值为1311.9元/吨，较上月-214.2元/吨(跌幅 14.0%)，同比+512.5元/吨(涨幅64.1%)。 ➢ 供给端：10月阴极铜产量下滑，进口回升。1）产量：10月产量为 97.98万吨，同比-1.2%，环比-2.4%，产能利用率为79. ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Hold" rating for Zhejiang Energy Power [3]. Core Views - Zhejiang Energy Power is positioned as a leading provincial power company with strong performance prospects, transitioning towards a dual business model of thermal power and new energy manufacturing [1][2]. - The company has shown a significant recovery in thermal power profitability, supported by a decrease in coal prices and a stable electricity price environment, which enhances its earnings outlook [1][2]. - The company is actively investing in nuclear power and solar energy, aiming to strengthen its dual business strategy and capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Performance and Future Prospects - Zhejiang Energy Power is the largest local power generation company in China, primarily engaged in thermal power generation, with a total installed capacity of approximately 35.17 GW as of the end of 2023 [1][19]. - The company has successfully transitioned towards a dual business model by acquiring a 9.7% stake in Zhonglai, entering the high-end equipment manufacturing sector for new energy [1][15]. - The company has a solid historical dividend payout record, with a projected high dividend payout ratio in the future based on improved earnings [1][32]. 2. Recovery in Thermal Power Profitability - The company manages approximately 30.88 GW of coal-fired power and 4.03 GW of gas-fired power, with expectations for new units to be operational in 2024 [1][38]. - The electricity demand in Zhejiang is expected to remain tight, ensuring high utilization hours for the company's power generation units [1][49]. - The company anticipates a continued improvement in profitability due to the recovery of coal prices and the implementation of capacity pricing starting in 2024 [1][2]. 3. Investment in Nuclear Power and Solar Energy - The report highlights the low proportion of nuclear power in China's energy mix, with expectations for significant growth in nuclear capacity by 2035 [2]. - The company is strategically investing in nuclear projects and has entered the solar energy sector through its stake in Zhonglai, aiming for a balanced growth strategy [2][3]. - The company is focused on leveraging its thermal power and new energy resources to develop complementary projects, enhancing its overall growth potential [2][3]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 941.15 billion, 970.79 billion, and 1,007.07 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 77.69 billion, 84.22 billion, and 90.85 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued earnings growth driven by new capacity coming online and favorable market conditions [3][4].

华福证券 上 10 月猪企出栏增量，均价回调 一年内行业相对大盘走势 投资要点： 量：10 月出栏同环比增量明显。10 月 18 家猪企合计出栏生猪 1429.79 万头，环比+14.56%，同比+12.53%。从 10 月环比增速来看，唐人神 （+55.34%）、正邦科技（+42.75%）、牧原股份（+21.28%）、大北农（+19.83%） 出栏量环比增长明显，*ST 傲农（-25.17%）、京基智农（-19.82%）、罗牛 山（-8.30%）环比出现较大程度下滑。从 10 月同比增速来看，东瑞股份 （+128.44%），神农集团（+73.63%）、立华股份（+55.98%）、牧原股份 (+33.16%)等出栏同比增长，*ST 傲农（-76.08%）、正虹科技（-47.93%）、 ST 天邦（-38.75%）等出栏量同比出现下滑。 结构：10 月猪企仔猪销售占比下滑。仔猪价格跌至低位后部分地区有 少量散户及放养公司有抄底补栏动作，10 月上旬仔猪价格止跌反弹，但考 虑到冬季猪病，整体补栏体量对市场影响较小，仔猪价格上涨幅度有限， 月均价环比仍下跌，10 月规模场 7kg 仔猪价格 305.84 元/头，环 ...

� � 华福证券 江苏国信（002608.SZ） 金融善守火电能攻，乘风破浪奋楫扬帆 投资要点： 能源金融双主业，产融协同共发展：公司前身为同一控股股东江苏国 信集团旗下的舜天船舶，通过"破产重整+资产重组"解决遗留债务问题并 将核心资产注入公司，主营业务由船舶制造转变为能源和信托双主业。公 司主营业务包括能源与金融两大板块，能源板块资产占比较大；金融板块 业绩贡献稳定，是主要的利润主体。2023 年，受益于煤价回落、提质增效 等，公司归母净利润同比增长 3014%。1Q-3Q24 公司归母净利润达 29.21 亿元，同比增长 48.47%。预计未来煤价大幅上涨可能性较小、综合电价整 体相对稳定、江苏电力需求旺盛以及在建机组十四五期间陆续投产，公司 业绩有望持续增长，未来可期。 火电装机投产高成长，奋楫扬帆正当时：截至 1H24，公司已投产火电 1545.4 万千瓦，在建控股煤电 508 万千瓦，在建参股煤电 100 万千瓦。在 建参控股 608 万千瓦，数量居全省首位，预计 24-25 年投产，投产后将为 业绩注入增长新动力。公司机组布局以江苏为主，江苏是用电大省，电力 需求旺盛，保障公司机组高水平利用小时 ...

华福证券 上海莱士（002252.SZ） 老牌血制品企业，海尔集团控股有望赋能 投资要点： 血制品行业竞争格局集中，充分利好头部企业。 血制品行业由于其特殊性，行业竞争格局高度集中。全球角度看， CSL、武田和 GRIFOLS 三大巨头占据近 60%市场份额；国内看，自 2001 年起我国未再批准设立新的血液制品生产企业，大量中小型血液 制品企业退出或被并购，2023 年六家头部企业合计采浆量占国内血浆 采集量的 70%~80%。行业高集中度背景下，有望持续利好头部企业。 公司浆站、产品数量均居行业前列，23 年采浆量达 1500 吨。 公司血液制品数量丰富，目前共有上海、郑州、合肥、温州、南 宁 5 个血液制品生产基地，产品覆盖白蛋白类、免疫球蛋白类及凝血 因子三大类，是国内同行业中凝血因子类产品种类最为齐全的生产企 业之一，当前公司血制品共 12 个品种，位列行业第二。公司积极拓展 浆站布局，2023 年通过获批新建及收购等方式新增单采血浆站 3 家， 浆站数量达 44 个，位列行业第二，采浆量达 1500 吨。 海尔集团控股，有望持续赋能公司长期发展 海尔集团协议收购基立福持有的公司 20%的股权，成为 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 电力设备及新能源 2024 年 11 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业周报 产业周跟踪：阳光中标欧洲最大储能项目，风电 强于大市(维持评级) 光伏产业链价格企稳回升 投资要点： ➢ 10月电车市场景气度高位运行，锂矿产能开启出清周期。1）10月电 车市场景气度高位运行，以旧换新政策刺激需求；2）澳洲锂矿开始停 产，锂矿价格有望触底反弹。 ➢ 光伏板块核心观点：工信部正式发布《光伏制造行业规范条件(2024 年本)》，协会提高11月最低组件含税成本。11月20日，工信部发布《光 伏制造行业规范条件(2024年本)》，较7月征求意见稿加严了硅料环节新 增和改扩建产能的电耗要求、新增了硅片和电池环节新建和改扩建产能的 水耗要求，我们认为此次正式稿针对新增和改扩建产能加严准入条件,有 利于头部企业巩固行业地位，扩大市场份额；中国光伏行业协会发布11月 最低组件含税成本数据（含最低必要费用），较10月提高0.01元 ...