华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2024 年 11 月 30 日 研 轨交设备Ⅱ 2024 年 1—10 月份全国铁路主要指标持续向好， 全国铁路客流保持高位 投资要点： 1—10 月份全国铁路客流保持高位，同比增长 13.0% 今年 1—10 月份，全国铁路客流保持高位，货物运量持续增长， 较好满足了人民群众出行和物流服务需求。10 月份，全国铁路旅客发 送量 3.73 亿人，同比增长 6.0%；全国铁路旅客周转量 1303.52 亿人公 里，同比增长 2.8%。1—10 月份，全国铁路旅客发送量 37.11 亿人， 同比增长 13.0%；全国铁路旅客周转量 13859.26 亿人公里，同比增长 8.2%。旅客出行需求得到有效保障，出行便利度舒适度不断提升，经 济带动作用持续发力。 货物运量持续增长，铁路固定资产投资累计完成 6351 亿元 10 月份，全国铁路货运发送量 4.55 亿吨，同比增长 4.3%；全国 铁路货运周转量 3194.46 亿吨公里，同比增长 0.2%。1—10 月份，全 国铁路货运发送量 42.61 亿吨，同比增长 2.1%。10 月 24 日至 30 日， 国家铁路货运装车连续 7 天超 1 ...

华福证券 基础化工 轮胎行业 11 月跟踪：美国轮胎进口量环比增长， 主要原材料价格回落 投资要点： 全球需求：10 月全球 PCR 替换需求同比+6%、TBR 替换需求同比+3% 根据米其林官网，2024 年 10 月全球乘用车及轻卡轮胎替换需求同 比增长 6%。具体到各地区，10 月欧洲地区替换需求同比增长 15%、 中北美地区替换需求同比下降 2%、中国地区替换需求同比变动 0%。 2024 年 10 月全球乘用车及轻卡轮胎配套需求同比下降 4%。具体到各 地区，10 月欧洲地区配套需求同比下降 9%、中北美地区配套需求同 比下降 3%、中国地区配套需求同比下降 2%。 美国市场：9 月 PCR 进口量环比+5.38%、TBR 进口量环比+13.68% 团队成员 分析师： 黄珅(S0210524050022) hs30570@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、定期跟踪：磷酸二铵价格保持稳定，磷酸二氢 钙价格环比显著上涨——2024.11.29 2、新材料周报：2024Q3 全球折叠屏手机市场联 想第二华为第三，普利特签署 LCP 薄膜量产合作 ——2024.11.24 3、行业周报：叶酸价格大幅上涨 ...

华福证券 上 食品饮料 政策发力正当时，消费低位显价值 投资要点： 【白酒】短期内白酒板块的量价压力仍在，基本面边际变化不大，整体 需求平淡已在市场预期之内，预计 Q4 及开门红压力仍在，25 年报表端或 以调整为主，且明年酒企若以价换量仍有层层踩踏的风险，但三季度报表 端集体进行压力释放为本轮调整期拐点可期的积极信号。考虑到板块仓位 回落幅度及时长相对充分，股价或先于基本面磨底，若后续财政政策超 预期，白酒作为顺周期板块有望加速估值修复。建议关注茅台、五粮液、 老窖、古井、汾酒、舍得酒业、水井坊。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒，建议关注分红率稳定且 ROE/PB 较高的重庆啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】重点推荐预调酒行业龙头百润股份，历史行情通常为大单品所 驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，当前临近威士忌发布 节点，重点推荐。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情况。 【休 ...

华福证券 电子 2024 年 12 月 01 日 北 NV 链观点：放下供应链短期博弈，拥抱需求端 大海星辰，享受景气度向上趋势-海外科技周跟踪 投资要点： 本周纳斯达克综合指数上涨 1.13%，费城半导体下跌 0.59% 周三是美股 11 月最后一个完整交易日，当日出现普跌，科技、软 件方面受累戴尔、惠普、CrowdStrike 等公司财报不佳影响，纳指及纳 指 100 跌近 1%领跌。周四，彭博社报道拜登政府虽考虑进一步限制向 中国出售半导体设备及人工智能内存芯片，但不会采取此前提出的一 些更严厉措施。禁令弱于预期之下，周五芯片股普涨，费城半导体指 数收涨 1.52%，阿斯麦收涨 2.41%，科磊收涨 2.36%，应用材料收涨 1.98%。具体来看：半导体板块中，西部数据周涨幅 9.88%，英伟达周 跌幅2.61%，台积电周跌幅2.85%；互联网板块中，亚马逊周涨幅5.46%， 阿里巴巴周涨幅 5.10%，拼多多周跌幅 3.51%；软件板块中，甲骨文周 跌幅 3.87%，CrowdStrike 周跌幅 7.06%，Snowflake 周涨幅 4.40%。 团队成员 NV 链观点：放下供应链短期博弈，拥抱需 ...

Core Views - China is accelerating globalization externally while expanding the service sector internally, with a focus on the Belt and Road Initiative, Hang Seng Tech, and leading service companies [4] - Four key trends to watch: service sector expansion, contraction of traditional manufacturing, self-reliance and manufacturing upgrades, and globalization through the Belt and Road Initiative [4] - China's economic expansion and globalization will benefit from increased foreign aid and cooperation, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative and capital goods exports [4] - Domestic demand expansion will drive both goods and service consumption, with service companies likely to benefit more from new consumption models [4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the long term, making RMB assets more attractive compared to USD assets, which face risks due to high inflation and real interest rates in the US [4] US Election Impact - The Republican Party's control of the US government may lead to three scenarios: aggressive deglobalization, contractionary deglobalization, or moderate deglobalization, each with different implications for China's globalization efforts [13] - The US is entering a period of centralized power, with the Republican Party controlling the presidency, Congress, and the Supreme Court, which could lead to increased economic uncertainty [15][20] - Internal conflicts in the US may intensify as the Republican Party aims to improve efficiency, potentially leading to a redistribution of interests and increased tensions [25] Japan's Globalization Experience - Japan's export share peaked in 1986, and its globalization was heavily influenced by the US, particularly during the Cold War when Japan was seen as a strategic partner in East Asia [46][50] - Japan's industrial upgrades in the 1970s and 1980s, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors, led to trade conflicts with the US, culminating in the Plaza Accord in 1985 [50][51] - Japan's "Black Ship Reflux" plan, introduced after the Plaza Accord, aimed to balance international payments by using surplus funds to provide loans to developing countries, promoting yen internationalization [70][72] China's Globalization Path - China's manufacturing industry has a high degree of completeness, which has led to concerns from other countries as its trade surplus expands [131] - China's globalization strategy focuses on building a "community with a shared future for mankind," with a focus on mutual benefit and cooperation, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative [167] - China's foreign aid is primarily in the form of loans, with a focus on industrial, mining, and construction projects, as well as energy and transportation infrastructure [180][186] RMB Internationalization - The RMB's international payment share and trade financing share have increased significantly in recent years, with the RMB ranking fourth globally in international payments [220][221] - RMB-denominated international bonds have seen a significant increase in issuance, particularly in Asia, with RMB bonds accounting for about 11% of total issuance in 2023 [224][225] Investment Strategy - Key investment trends include the expansion of the service sector, contraction of traditional manufacturing, self-reliance and manufacturing upgrades, and globalization through the Belt and Road Initiative [231] - China's economic expansion and globalization will benefit from increased foreign aid and cooperation, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative and capital goods exports [231] - RMB assets are expected to outperform USD assets due to the RMB's stable or slightly rising exchange rate and the risks associated with high inflation and real interest rates in the US [231]

华福证券 磷肥及磷化工 定期跟踪：磷酸二铵价格保持稳定，磷酸二氢钙 价格环比显著上涨 投资要点： 磷矿：磷矿石价格维持高位，支撑产业链景气度 1）中国磷矿石价格维持高位，对整个产业链景气度形成支撑。10 月中国 30%品味磷矿石均价约为 1037.5 元/吨，环比 2024 年 9 月上涨 1.40%，同比上涨 5.47%。2）10 月中国磷矿石供应量同比有所增长。 2024 年 10 月中国磷矿石月度产量约为 1069.8 万吨，环比下降 6.0%， 同比增长 23.5%。3）10 月中国磷矿石月度进口量环比、同比均有下降。 2024 年 10 月中国磷矿石进口量约为 8.89 万吨，环比下降 68.4%，同 比下降 37.7%。4）截至 2024 年 10 月中国磷矿石当月余量为 420.91 万 吨。 磷肥：10 月磷酸一铵开工率环比提升，磷酸二铵价格保持稳定 团队成员 分析师： 黄珅(S0210524050022) hs30570@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、8 月定期跟踪：磷矿石景气维持高位，复合肥 开工率回暖——2024.09.21 2、7 月定期跟踪：磷矿石景气维持高位，磷肥价 格同比 ...

Group 1 - The report anticipates a gradual recovery of the domestic economy in 2025, driven by policy support, with certain industries expected to complete supply-side clearing and emerge from deflation [1][2] - The analysis focuses on identifying potential industries that are at the initial stage of reversal characterized by "supply-side bottom clearing" and "beginning improvement," which offers higher investment certainty and odds compared to previous phases [1][12] - The selected industries that meet the criteria of supply-side clearing and improvement include basic chemicals, transportation, power equipment, machinery, automobiles, social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and textiles [2][13] Group 2 - The industry screening process begins with analyzing financial data from Q3 2024, focusing on operational efficiency, new supply, and profitability through six key indicators [2][16] - The model's effectiveness is supported by backtesting results, showing that when supply-side clearing and improvement occur, an average absolute return of 6.0% and an excess return of 1.3% can be achieved in the following quarter [2][38] - Further selection of potential stocks within the identified industries considers cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and profit expectations, focusing on manufacturing sector opportunities [46][47] Group 3 - The report outlines a comprehensive analysis of supply-side conditions using three perspectives: operational efficiency, new supply, and profitability, with specific indicators for each [16][24] - The analysis of operational efficiency includes inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover, identifying industries that are experiencing supply-side clearing and marginal improvement [18][24] - Profitability analysis utilizes gross margin and revenue growth to assess the industry's stage in the supply-side clearing process, identifying sectors with potential for improvement [24][27]

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业投资策略 公用事业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年11月29日 纲举目张，助推双碳 ——电力行业2025年度投资策略 证券分析师：严家源 执业证书编号：S0210524050013 联系人：闫燕燕 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ◼ 回顾24年：年初以来用电需求韧性十足，1-9月份，全国规上工业增加值同比增长8.4%；全社会用电量7.41万亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%。供给侧方面，今年前三 季度主要流域来水好转，水电出力显著增加；在大量新增装机推动下，风电和光伏出力呈现双位数增长；水电、绿电出力的提升，挤压了火电电量空间；核电受 机组大修影响，出力基本持平。 ◼ 展望25年：在多年反复打磨后，《能源法》千呼万唤始出来，对现有的《电力法》等能源行业相关法规起到纲举目张的作用。在初步成型的国内碳市场加速与全 球碳市场对接融合的时代浪潮中，《能源法》为"双碳"保驾护航，推动其更高质量地达成目标。 ◼ 水电：关键词——更新改造&抽水蓄能。在节能环保与老旧设备更新的双重政策助推下，水轮机等电站设备的更新改造将带来新一轮的产业链资本开支及电站运 营潜力的释放。抽水蓄 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - Zhongxin Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the pulp molding industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of biodegradable plant fiber molded products, primarily pulp molded food containers, which account for over 97% of its revenue. The company holds approximately 16% of the global market share in pulp molded food containers by value and 20% of the national production [3][4][65]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue of 1.148 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 49% year-on-year [3][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhongxin Co., Ltd. specializes in biodegradable plant fiber molded products, with a total production capacity of 123,700 tons as of September 2024. The company has a significant market presence in the pulp molded food container sector [3][65]. 2. Industry Landscape - The global pulp molding packaging market was valued at approximately 5.111 billion USD in 2022, with food packaging accounting for 44.6% and food containers for 24.2%. The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2023 to 2030 [4][119]. - China is a major supplier in the pulp molding industry, with a production capacity of 1.79 million tons, representing 40.5% of global capacity. The export volume of pulp molded products from China has been increasing, with a 79.4% year-on-year growth in the first eight months of 2024 [4][169]. 3. Company Strengths - The company has a favorable customer structure, with major clients including Amer Care Royal, Huhtamaki, and Eco-Products. The top five customers' revenue contribution has decreased from 58.7% in 2019 to 39.3% in 2023, indicating a diversification of its customer base [5][196]. - The company maintains a cost advantage through local sourcing of raw materials, primarily bagasse pulp and bamboo pulp, which are stable in supply. The production base in Guangxi benefits from the region's abundant sugarcane production [5][204]. 4. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 30%, 24%, and 20% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 19%, and 17% for the same years. The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.31 yuan, 3.95 yuan, and 4.61 yuan, respectively [7][236]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is projected to be 20 times, while the company is valued at a lower PE of 13 times, indicating potential for growth [238].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][28]. Core Insights - The AI toy market is experiencing a surge in popularity, becoming one of the most promising segments in the AI to C (consumer) sector, with innovative products driving sales and high demand [2][3]. - Recent advancements in cloud computing and self-developed chips are enhancing data processing efficiency and reducing costs, which is crucial given the growing demand for cloud services [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant performance improvements of Amazon's Trainium2 chip, which boasts four times the performance and three times the memory capacity of its predecessor, alongside new offerings from Microsoft [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Situation - The AI toy market is booming, with products like ByteDance's "Eye-catching Bag" and Tesla's robot toy achieving high sales and significant price increases in the second-hand market [3][4]. - FoloToy's AI companion toy has sold nearly 20,000 units, while Tesla's robot toy sold out within 24 hours, with second-hand prices reaching $1,300 [3][4]. Application Scenarios - AI toys are designed to meet emotional needs and enhance early education, combining traditional toys with AI technology to provide personalized interactions [4][5]. - The integration of AI into toys is leading to a new trend in the toy industry, with products becoming more interactive and appealing to consumers [4][5]. Business Model - FoloToy employs a dual-market strategy, offering both consumer and business solutions, and its AI suite is compatible with major AI platforms like OpenAI and Microsoft Azure [5][11]. - The AI suite enhances the adaptability and market fit of products, allowing for better integration with other toys and collaboration with businesses [5][11].