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固定收益专题:热门题材转债配置指南
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 13:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - In the current market context, increasing the allocation of convertible bonds related to popular themes may be the key action for the portfolio to achieve excess returns. Although overseas tariff factors disrupt the domestic economic recovery process and the profit side of listed companies may not recover rapidly in the short term, after the end of the intensive performance disclosure period in May, the previous negative factors have been gradually priced in. The government has released liquidity to support the economy and the securities market. It is expected that the market will likely show characteristics of increasing risk appetite, and the valuation side will be the main support for the strengthening of the market [2][6]. - To benefit from the increase in the market valuation level, it is advisable to appropriately increase the allocation of convertible bonds related to themes. Although the profit side of some theme - related convertible bonds has not yet reached an inflection point, stock pricing often leans towards future long - term growth. The negative factors on the profit side of some targets have been fully priced in by the market in the early stage, and investors tend to give a higher valuation premium to stocks related to new productive forces. Therefore, under the current background, convertible bonds related to popular themes are more cost - effective in creating excess returns [2][9]. - By analyzing the excess return performance of the CSI 2000 and the Wind AA - rated and below index from 2020 to the present, it is found that when the market trading volume exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan, the CSI 2000 shows relatively obvious excess returns compared to the Wind All - A Index in the stock dimension, and the trend is more obvious in the convertible bond dimension. Convertible bonds related to popular themes are more characteristic of small - cap stocks and low - rated convertible bonds, and are more likely to create excess returns when the trading volume recovers [2][9]. - Relevant convertible bonds can be mined by combining annual reports and public research records. The real economy has been gradually transforming towards new productive forces in recent years. Listed companies will disclose new investment and transformation directions in their annual reports and conduct communication and research activities with the capital market after the disclosure of regular reports. Therefore, the 2024 annual reports and public research records since 2025 are important for mining relevant theme - related convertible bonds [2][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Wind Risk Preference Recovery, Theme - Related Convertible Bonds May Be the Key to Winning Excess Returns in the Future Market - The current market trading volume has gradually recovered since early April. After the end of the performance disclosure period, the previous negative factors have been priced in, and the government's liquidity release is expected to drive the market risk preference upwards, with the valuation side supporting the market [6][9]. - It is recommended to increase the allocation of theme - related convertible bonds. Some theme - related convertible bonds are more likely to create excess returns due to factors such as future growth expectations and market pricing [2][9]. - Popular themes such as robotics, computing power, Huawei Ascend, HarmonyOS, brain - computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion are analyzed, and relevant convertible bonds are recommended [13]. 3.2 Humanoid Robots - Multiple companies are involved in the humanoid robot field. For example, Keli Convertible Bond (Kedali) focuses on the R & D and production of harmonic reducers and joint modules; Haoneng Convertible Bond (Haoneng Co., Ltd.) is developing high - precision reducers; Lingyi Convertible Bond (Lingyizao) is expanding its business from component supply to assembly and aims to become a robot body assembly manufacturer [18][19][20]. 3.3 Computing Power - Many companies are actively involved in the computing power business. Zhongbei Convertible Bond (Zhongbei Communication) has completed the national business layout of intelligent computing clusters, with an operating computing power scale of over 15,000P and significant revenue growth [32]. 3.4 Huawei Ascend - Haohan Convertible Bond (Haohan Shendu) is exploring AI and large - model applications, and has completed the v1.1 version of the Haohan Morning Star large model, enhancing its capabilities and achieving API interface docking [35]. 3.5 HarmonyOS - CoreHi Convertible Bond (CoreHi Technology) has consolidated its leading position in the HarmonyOS ecosystem, with over 300 business opportunities for HarmonyOS - connected projects and 115 SKUs of products connected [38]. 3.6 Brain - Computer Interfaces - Rongtai Convertible Bond (Rongtai Health) has established a "Brain - Computer Interaction Joint Laboratory" with Shanghai Aoyi Information Technology Co., Ltd. to promote the application of brain - computer fusion technology and bionic manipulators in the intelligent health field [39]. 3.7 Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Guangda Convertible Bond (Guangda Special Materials) is developing and supplying materials related to controllable nuclear fusion, with batch - supply of relevant materials and significant orders [40].
美联储FOMC会议点评:模糊的滞胀预期下,美联储会否全年按兵不动?
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 13:09
宏 观 研 究 2025 年 05 月 08 日 模糊的滞胀预期下,美联储会否全年按兵不动? ——美联储 FOMC 会议点评(2025.5) 投资要点: 宏 观 点 评 基于当前仍然稳健的经济和就业表现,以及未来可能出现的滞胀风险,美 联储年初至今连续第三次会议决定维持利率水平不变。当地时间 5 月 7 日下午, 美联储召开本年度第三次 FOMC 会议,在声明中指出"尽管净出口动荡对经 济数据造成影响",但经济活动仍延续稳健扩张步伐,鲍威尔在新闻发布会上 补充阐述称美国国内最终购买(PDFP)一季度稳定增长 3%,与去年节奏相同; 此外声明认为经济前景的不确定性"进一步"提升,并评估认为"失业率和通 胀同步上行的风险加大",这意味着美联储当前对美国政府关税政策影响下美 国经济在未来可能走向一定程度的滞胀存有担忧,而滞胀局面一旦出现,美联 储往往需要首先实施一定程度的紧缩,在成功控制通胀预期后才可转而实施宽 松操作。基于上述两方面原因,美联储本次会议连续第三次决定维持利率水平 不变,自年初以来未再降息。鲍威尔在发布会问答环节多次强调当前美联储"不 必着急","可以耐心等待",或为暗示美联储降息的概率和幅度比市场 ...
银发经济娱乐消费新风潮
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 13:03
策 略 研 究 华福证券 银发经济娱乐消费新风潮 团队成员 投资要点: 数字参与深化:银发经济推动消费市场多元发展 策 随着社会的发展与老龄化进程的加剧,老年群体的消费行为和消费市 场正在发生深刻的变化,50 岁以上的中老年人群体已经逐步融入数字化生 活,成为不可忽视的消费力量。根据中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)的 第 55 次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》,截至 2024 年 12 月,50 岁 及以上群体占比达到 34.1%,较上年同期增长 1.6 个百分点。 略 点 评 近年来,年轻人常用的 APP,也逐渐成为银发族群体日常使用的应用。 据电通创意的《2025 银发族趋势观察》,在银发人群中,快手、抖音和网 易新闻是使用时长最长的三大应用。同时,老年人群体也体现了强烈的参 与感,61%的银发人群会将自己喜欢的短视频分享给亲朋好友,涵盖的内 容包括养生、新闻时事等。这一趋势不仅推动了老年人群体的数字化转型, 也为相关企业在这一市场的布局提供了机会。老年人群体的互联网使用习 惯正在不断深入,而这一趋势势必将推动数字广告、社交电商、在线教育、 短视频等领域的蓬勃发展。 娱乐消费升级:银发经济驱动文娱产业 ...
有色金属2024年报及2025一季报点评报告:避险情绪提振贵金属价格,小金属战略性凸显
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 11:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown significant price increases, with annual gains of +27.2% for London gold and +27.6% for Shanghai gold, indicating strong long-term investment value despite short-term fluctuations due to economic concerns [3][18] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to experience price stability in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance supporting upward price movements [4][36] - The lithium market is facing a weak supply-demand dynamic, with limited support for price recovery despite some short-term fluctuations [4][36] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly, supported by market uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with a long-term investment value remaining intact [3][18] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, with a focus on undervalued companies like Zhuhai Huajun and Yulong Shares [3] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand situation, with expectations of increased demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [4][36] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on companies like Western Mining and Jiangxi Copper [4] Lithium and New Energy Metals - The lithium market is characterized by oversupply, with limited price recovery potential despite some short-term demand spikes [4] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials, with a focus on companies like Jiangte Motor and Tianqi Lithium [4] Other Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand, while antimony prices are stabilizing after a period of weakness [4] - Recommended stocks in rare earths include China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth, while for antimony, focus on Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [4]
央行报表科普系列:如何理解其他存款性公司资产负债表
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 10:48
华福证券 Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 8 日 固 收 研 究 【华福固收】央行报表科普系列:如何 理解其他存款性公司资产负债表 投资要点: 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号: S0210524040003 邮箱:xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 研究助理: 黄紫仪 邮箱:hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 eR _ e lb aT Table_First e p yT tro p |ts r iF _ e lb aT Table_First|Table_ReportDate Table_First|Table_RelateReport 固 其他存款性公司包括存款货币公司和其他存款货币公司,其中,存款 货币公司包括国有行、股份行、城商行和农商行、信用社、外资行及 农发行,其他存款货币公司包括中资和在我国的外资企业集团财务公 司以及国开行、进出口行。 定 收 益 专 题 ...
海外宏观利率双周报:如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧?-20250508
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 07:14
Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧? ——海外宏观利率双周报 ➢ 如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧? ➢ 双周海外宏观点评 ➢ 利率: 美国利率如期上行,"硬指标"不提供降息支撑 诚信专业 发现价值 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 Table_First e p 团队成员 相关报告 1.《【华福固收】25 年一季报投资线索梳 理》(2025-05-03) 2.《【华福固收】5 月信用债投资策略思 考》(2025-05-05) 观 利 率 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 _ e l y T t r o p e R b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T 固 收 研 究 海 外 宏 Table_First|Table_Author Table_First|Table_Contacter lhr30501@hfzq Table_First|Table_RelateReport 华福证券 ➢ 美国 2025 财年(2024 年 10 月 1 日至 2025 年 9 月 30 日)财政预 算仍未 ...
医疗与消费周报:信玖凝获批:我国基因治疗药物行业发展推进中-20250508
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-08 05:23
华福证券 2025 年 05 月 08 日 策 略 研 究 医疗与消费周报——信玖凝获批:我国基因治疗 药物行业发展推进中 投资要点: 近期观点 1、医药指数本周(4.28-4.30)关注的 6 个子行业三分之二录得正 收益,表现良好。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、2025 年 4 月 11 日,中国首个血友病 B 基因治疗药物信玖凝(波 哌达可基注射液)获批上市,从研发到上市仅用不到七年。基因疗法 是通过导入外源基因置换或纠正致病基因,实现"一次治疗,长期有 效"。医麦克《基因治疗药物行业发展白皮书》显示,2025 年中国基 因疗法市场规模预计达 25.9 亿美元,2025-2027 年有望达 500 亿元。 中国罕见病约 2000 种,基因疗法潜力巨大。中国丰富的基因组学数据 为研究提供支持,但基因疗法仍面临技术安全性、伦理、法规及成本 等挑战,新的基因编辑工具和递送系统为其发展提供动力。 团队成员 分析师: 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 风险提示 技术研发不及预期;宏观需求变化;地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必 ...
量化基金月度跟踪(2025年5月):4月市场下跌,主动量化超额显著-20250507
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-07 13:47
Group 1 - The report indicates that in April 2025, active quantitative funds tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 indices achieved average excess returns of 0.2%, 1.3%, and -0.1% respectively [2][25][34] - Among industry-themed funds, those tracking the CSI Medical, CSI High-end Equipment, and CSI Major Consumer indices ranked as the top three in excess returns for April [41] - Smart beta funds tracking the CSI Technology index had the highest excess returns for the month [42] Group 2 - The report highlights that the absolute return of hedge quantitative funds averaged 0.03% in April 2025, with net asset value volatility higher than the year-to-date average [4][17] - The performance of index-enhanced quantitative funds showed that those tracking the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices had average excess returns of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively in April [3][51] - The report notes that the average tracking error for funds tracking the CSI 500 index was 4.3%, which is lower than the year-to-date level [51] Group 3 - The report categorizes quantitative funds into three types: active quantitative funds, index-enhanced quantitative funds, and hedge quantitative funds, each with distinct characteristics and advantages [9] - The report states that as of April 30, 2025, there were 199 active quantitative funds tracking 16 indices, with 71, 53, and 36 funds tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 indices respectively [20][21] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various funds, including absolute and excess returns, volatility, and maximum drawdown for the month of April [36][59]
居然智家(000785):数智化转型表现亮眼,静待主业调改效能释放
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-07 10:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][21]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in its digital transformation and is awaiting the release of efficiencies from its main business adjustments [4]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The leasing and management business generated a revenue of 5.54 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, while the franchise management business earned 430 million yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year, primarily due to rental and management fee reductions to support merchants [5]. - The product sales business achieved a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, with the company's smart home segment generating over 6.33 billion yuan in sales, a growth of 43.4% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 27.35%, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by rental reductions [6]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 840 million yuan, 930 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.3%, 10.1%, and 11.1% [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively innovating its market strategies, including a new store cooperation model and a "one store, two systems" recruitment strategy, which has improved recruitment rates by 5.3% [5]. - The company has expanded its digital marketing services and international presence, opening two stores in Cambodia and Macau, achieving a recruitment rate of over 97% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X for 2025 [7]. - The company maintains a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.07% and a net asset value per share of 3.28 yuan [7].
政策“组合拳”:稳市场、促转型
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-07 09:00
Group 1 - The report outlines a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting transformation, introduced during a press conference by key financial leaders [1][2][7] - The monetary policy includes three categories and ten specific measures, focusing on quantity, price, and structure to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [10][11][12] - A targeted support for the real estate sector is highlighted, with a reduction in housing provident fund loan rates expected to stimulate demand and stabilize the market [16][17] Group 2 - The capital market is set to receive increased funding through systematic reforms, including the expansion of insurance capital investments and adjustments to regulatory frameworks to encourage long-term investments [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable capital market structure, aiming to attract long-term capital and enhance market resilience through various policy measures [20][21] - Historical data indicates that previous reductions in reserve requirements have led to positive market reactions, suggesting that the current policy measures may similarly boost market sentiment [21][24] Group 3 - Future investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors such as domestic computing power, industrial machinery, and defense industries, driven by policy support and global technological trends [28] - The report suggests that sectors sensitive to interest rate declines, such as real estate development and home improvement, may benefit from the current economic policies [28] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to discretionary spending and healthcare, are expected to thrive due to lower mortgage rates and supportive consumption policies [28]