Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and warning against market peaks, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and monitoring trading heat indicators [3][10]. - In the TMT sector, various themes have shown promising patterns, with 1 bottoming pattern in the power equipment industry, 15 breakout patterns primarily in the computer sector, 20 main rising patterns including 6 in telecommunications, 4 in electronics, and 3 in non-ferrous metals, and 2 acceleration patterns in telecommunications and electronics [12][10]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 60%, with the leading stock Changsheng Bearing's closing price being 12.1% below its 60-day moving average (MA60). Conversely, the Deepseek theme's trading heat has increased to 62%, with the leading stock Daily Interaction's closing price being 5% below its MA60 [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company has announced a strategic partnership with Tencent Video to launch new products based on popular domestic animation IPs, enhancing product value through a combination of strong IP and functionality [3][4]. - The collaboration aims to tap into the growing demand for domestic cultural products among the youth, with a significant portion of the target demographic expressing interest in purchasing products that incorporate national elements [5]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in net profit, with projections of CNY 1.55 billion, CNY 1.74 billion, and CNY 1.96 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.3%, 11.9%, and 12.8% [6]. Company Strategy - The company is focusing on an IP-driven strategy, having previously collaborated with various domestic and international IPs, and aims to leverage this partnership to enhance its product offerings across multiple categories [5]. - The retail segment, particularly through its brand "Jiumu Zawush", is expected to see an increase in the proportion of IP-related products, with membership surpassing 10 million [5]. - The company is actively engaging with new consumer trends, particularly in the context of the back-to-school season, which is anticipated to drive sales of its new IP-based products [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at CNY 26.69 billion, CNY 29.82 billion, and CNY 33.21 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 11% respectively [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are CNY 1.69, CNY 1.89, and CNY 2.13, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][79]. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the military industry, emphasizing strong demand recovery expected by 2025, driven by multiple catalysts including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "Centenary Goals of the Army" [4][45]. - The military sector is expected to see significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand, with a strong recommendation for investment in three main lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index (801740) increased by 0.41% from June 3 to June 6, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.88%, resulting in an underperformance of -0.47 percentage points [11][16]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has risen by 2.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has decreased by 1.55%, leading to a relative outperformance of 3.85 percentage points [18]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Domestic Trade: - Land Equipment: Companies such as Tianqin Equipment, Bai'ao Intelligent, and Gaode Infrared are highlighted [4][46]. - Components & Aerospace: Companies like Huojue Electronics and Chengdu Huamei are recommended [4][46]. - Information Technology Upgrade: Companies such as Xinjinggang and Sichuan Aerospace are noted [4][46]. - Foreign Trade: Companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are suggested [9][46]. - Self-Sufficiency: - Commercial Engines: Companies like Hangyu Technology and Tunan Co. are mentioned [10][46]. - Commercial Aircraft: Companies such as Xiling Power and Aerospace Huanyu are included [10][46]. - Nuclear Fusion: Companies like Guoguang Electric and Lianchuang Optoelectronics are noted [10][46]. 3. Funding and Valuation - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs increased, with a net inflow of 1.518 billion yuan during the week, indicating a positive trend in funding [29][35]. - As of June 6, the military sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 65.49, with a percentile rank of 89.8%, suggesting high investment value at this time [4][46].

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 08 日 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：美国将对华 301 关税豁免期延长 3 个月，巴斯夫出售涂料业务 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3629.26 点，环比上涨 1.98%。 其中，涨幅前五的有润阳科技(15.45%)、奥克股份(14.84%)、浙江众成(10.86%)、 联瑞新材(10.51%)、博迁新材(8.45%)；跌幅前五的有飞凯材料(-7.47%)、长鸿 高科(-6.05%)、瑞联新材(-5%)、彤程新材(-3.38%)、合盛硅业(-3.21%)。六个子 行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5968.97 点，环比下跌 0.92%；申 万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1042.43 点，环比上涨 0.26%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 5685.35 点，环比下跌 1.88%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1169.32 点，环比下跌 0.7%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1692.24 点， 环比上涨 1.33%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1879.28 点，环比上涨 2.0 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant potential market for vitiligo treatments in China, estimating the market could exceed 20 billion yuan, driven by over 22 million patients suffering from the condition [3][48][49] - The current treatment landscape for vitiligo is limited, with existing therapies having various shortcomings, and there is an urgent need for effective, targeted medications [20][15][14] - The report identifies two key companies, Kangzheng Pharmaceutical and Tianen Pharmaceutical, as leaders in the development of innovative treatments for vitiligo, with promising clinical data expected soon [3][28][44] Group 2 - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical's ruxolitinib cream has shown strong clinical efficacy, with a 24-week F-VASI75 response rate of 50% in real-world studies, indicating its potential for significant market impact [36][31][32] - Tianen Pharmaceutical's CKBA ointment is in phase II clinical trials, with data expected in Q3 2025, showcasing a novel mechanism that effectively inhibits immune responses associated with vitiligo [44][47] - The report emphasizes the low competition in the domestic vitiligo drug development space, suggesting a favorable environment for new entrants to capture market share [27][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has initiated the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system, focusing on seven key directions to enhance the integration and consumption capacity of renewable energy [3][19][20] - Zhejiang Province has released a demand-side management plan for summer peak electricity demand in 2025, aiming to reduce peak load by over 1GW through various measures including time-of-use pricing and encouraging user-side energy storage participation [4][27][28] Summary by Sections Market Review - From June 3 to June 6, the gas and water sectors increased by 1.15% and 0.64% respectively, while the environmental and power sectors decreased by 0.07% and 0.60%, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 0.88% during the same period [12][10] Industry Perspectives - The pilot projects for the new power system will explore new technologies and models, addressing bottlenecks in renewable energy development and enhancing the reliability of power supply [3][19][20] - The pilot focuses on seven areas: grid-structured technology, system-friendly renewable power plants, smart microgrids, collaboration between computing power and electricity, virtual power plants, large-scale high-proportion renewable energy delivery, and new-generation coal power [19][20][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within various sectors: - For thermal power: Jiangsu Guoxin is recommended, while Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy Power are given cautious recommendations [4] - For nuclear power: China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are cautiously recommended [4] - For hydropower: Changjiang Power is recommended, with cautious recommendations for Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power [4] - For green energy: Attention is suggested for Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy, with cautious recommendations for Longyuan Power and Zhejiang New Energy [4] - For environmental protection: Yongxing Co., Huaguang Huaneng, and Xuedilong are recommended, with cautious recommendations for United Water and attention for Fuzhi Environmental Protection and Dayu Water Saving [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the expected acceleration in the new tobacco sector for British American Tobacco in the second half of 2025, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco products and the phased launch of new products [2][6] - The 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic brands in personal care and outdoor sports, with significant growth potential for companies like Morning Glory and others leveraging IP strategies [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to gradually recover as consumer confidence improves, with many companies currently valued at historical lows. Key players to watch include custom furniture leaders like Oppein and Sophia [6][10] Paper and Packaging - As of June 6, 2025, prices for various paper products remain stable, with white cardboard prices increasing slightly. The report suggests a cautious outlook due to overall weak terminal demand [6][54] - The paper industry saw a 1.6% year-on-year decline in revenue from January to April 2025, but fixed asset investment increased by 7.6% during the same period [66][68] Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that domestic brands in personal care are rapidly expanding their market presence, particularly through platforms like Douyin. Companies such as Dekang and Baiya are highlighted for their growth potential [6][8] Export Chain - The report indicates a robust outlook for export-oriented companies, with shipping costs rising due to increased demand for goods from China. Companies like Zhongxin and Zhejiang Nature are recommended for investment [6][8] New Tobacco - British American Tobacco's new tobacco segment is projected to see significant growth in the latter half of 2025, with a full-year growth expectation of mid-single digits, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco and the introduction of new products [6][8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable sales increases during the 618 shopping festival. Brands like Anta and Li Ning are recommended for their strong performance [6][10]

Monetary Policy Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2.0%, a reduction of 200 basis points from its peak[1] - The ECB has revised its HICP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively, while maintaining the 2027 forecast[1] - The ECB projects real GDP growth for the Eurozone at 0.9%, 1.1%, and 1.3% over the next three years[1] Economic Challenges - The Eurozone faces limited fiscal expansion capacity and slow effectiveness, which may exacerbate the impact of tariff frictions on its economy[2] - Exports to the U.S. accounted for only 17% of the Eurozone's total exports to non-EA20 countries, suggesting that the impact of U.S. tariffs may be manageable[2] - However, the export surplus to the U.S. has increased significantly, reaching 58.1% in March 2025, indicating a potential underestimation of tariff impacts[2] Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in April 2025, decreasing by $75 billion to $87 billion, which may indicate stronger trade pressures on Europe[3] - China's exports in April exceeded expectations, suggesting that Europe is experiencing greater trade shocks due to U.S. tariffs[3] Monetary Operations in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity, with a maturity of 91 days[4] - The PBOC's recent LPR cut has provided slight support to the real estate market, but new home sales in major cities have shown signs of decline[4] - A further rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated in June to stimulate the economy amid potential export downturns[4]

- The report introduces the PCR timing strategy based on the Put/Call Ratio (PCR), which serves as a market sentiment indicator. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests potential sentiment reversal)[4][79][90] - The PCR strategy has shown contributions in 2025 for both the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices. Specifically, the SSE 50 PCR strategy achieved a year-to-date return of 3.07%, with the latest strategy signal being neutral (signal 0)[4][90] - Performance metrics for the SSE 50 PCR strategy in 2025 include a return of 3.07%, maximum drawdown of 6.51%, annualized volatility of 14.61%, win rate of 55.10%, Calmar ratio of 2.32, and Sharpe ratio of 1[81][83] - Performance metrics for the CSI 300 PCR strategy in 2025 include a return of 0.97%, maximum drawdown of 9.44%, annualized volatility of 16.55%, win rate of 54.08%, Calmar ratio of 1.05, and Sharpe ratio of 0.6[85][86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - In June, banks face certain liability - side pressure, but it is generally controllable. While the pressure to renew certificates of deposit (CDs) increases, non - banking institutions have a need for re - allocation. With a relatively loose funding environment, the room for CD price hikes is limited. A 1Y CD with a yield above 1.7% already has investment value, and 1.75% may be the upper - limit. It is advisable to observe the CD prices in the second week of June and make allocations in the middle and late June [2][29] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Situation of CD Maturity in June - The CD maturity scale in June soared to 4.17 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, increasing the pressure to renew CDs. A new round of deposit rate cuts started on May 20, and theoretically, deposit migration will further increase the banks' liability - side pressure, leading to market concerns about subsequent CD rates [2][6] - Medium - and short - term CDs have a large maturity volume, with 3M CDs having the largest maturity scale. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks all have a maturity volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Over half of the large - scale banks' maturing CDs are 3M, joint - stock banks have more 1Y maturing CDs, and city commercial banks have more 6M maturing CDs [6] Relationship between CD Issuance, Maturity, Net Financing, and CD Rates - Historically, there is a good positive correlation between CD issuance and maturity. The relationship between net financing and CD rates is weak, while the relationship between maturity/issuance and CD rates has a certain positive correlation, but not every increase in maturity and issuance leads to a significant rise in CD rates [2][14] Impact of Deposit Migration on CD Rates - There have been four rounds of deposit migration since 2024. Except for April 2024, large - scale banks' deposit levels returned to the pre - migration state within one month after the other three rounds of deposit migration, and these four rounds did not cause a significant increase in CD rates, indicating that simply considering the impact of deposit migration on banks' liability - side is one - sided [2][23] Analysis of Banks' Funding Sources - Currently in a new round of deposit rate cuts, large - scale banks' deposit migration is still obvious in the short term, increasing the liability - side pressure to some extent. However, there are positive signals: as of June 4, the banks' net lending balance has recovered to about 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the annual low of about 1.5 trillion yuan; the central bank has shown obvious care for the funding environment after a series of financial policies, and the funding environment is expected to remain relatively loose in June; the net withdrawal of repurchase agreements in June may also indicate that the banks' liability - side pressure is controllable [2][24] Analysis of Banks' Funding Utilization - In terms of credit lending, the bill rates were stable in May, indicating good credit demand. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument is likely to be launched in June, and several major financial policies will be announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to stimulate credit in June. In terms of bond investment, the government bond issuance in June is expected to be 2.58 - 2.82 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.22 - 1.46 trillion yuan. Although the government bond payment intensity remains high, the impact is controllable due to the central bank's liquidity support and June being a large fiscal expenditure month [2][25]