华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 4 月 6 日 【华福固收】债券利率下行到位了吗？ 债券利率下行到位了吗？ 从短端利率来说，当前市场 7 天资金利率下行至 1.7-1.75%左右，考虑 7 天 OMO 政策利率在 1.5%，不能 排除市场资金利率还有下行空间，而且央行短期降准降息的概率预计也会提升，因此短端利率还有继续 下行的可能性，下行空间的打开根据实际资金利率水平的表现而定，短信用（1.85-1.9%左右）与存单 （1.8%左右）的利差、存单（1.8%左右）与资金利率（1.7%左右）的利差预计会继续保持在较低的正值 水平。考虑到短端利率债水平始终偏低，部分位置依然是负 carry 状态，因此短信用的确定性要高于短 利率，在整体曲线变陡的过程中，信用曲线变陡的胜率会更大一些。 长端利率方面，当前市场情绪偏好，利率处于容易下行状态。但长端利率存在两个问题：1.较平坦的收 益率曲线可能会制约长债利率的下行空间，从曲线形态来看，8-10Y 国债、5-6Y 和 9-10Y 国开受此影响 会相对小一些。但整体来说，长债利率的下行空间也需要资金下行和短端空间打开；2.长债利率是否会 突破年初低点？年初 1.6%的 ...

基础化工 2025 年 04 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：杜邦中国被立案调查，中国宣布对 美加征 34%关税或涉及新材料 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3642.47 点，环比下跌 1.3%。 其中，涨幅前五的有润阳科技(17.48%)、长阳科技(14.51%)、硅宝科技(5.49%)、 飞凯材料(5.41%)、阿拉丁(2.7%)；跌幅前五的有金博股份(-8.82%)、道恩股份 (-8.33%)、皇马科技(-7.73%)、阳谷华泰(-7.35%)、确成股份(-6.04%)。六个子 行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 6121.87 点，环比下跌 1.23%；申 万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1080.32 点，环比下跌 2.24%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 6132.17 点，环比下跌 2.5%；中信三级行业碳纤维指数 收报 1262.42 点，环比下跌 7.29%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1803.29 点， 环比下跌 3.64%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1826.32 点，环比上涨 0.5%。 杜邦中国被 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure, with a new growth phase in its cloud business starting [2][6]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86%, and a net profit of 197 million yuan, a decrease of 0.49% [3][6]. - The company’s enterprise customer revenue grew by 1.82% year-on-year, while revenue from government, financial, and other sectors decreased by 3.85% and 8.99% respectively [4][5]. - The cybersecurity business saw a revenue decline of 6.75%, but strategic products like XDR and MSS showed significant growth potential [5]. - The cloud computing and IT infrastructure business revenue increased by 9.51%, with steady growth in SDDC, managed cloud, and distributed storage EDS [5]. - The company’s market share in hyper-converged infrastructure reached 18.8% in Q3 2024, and EDS storage market share was 11.1% [5]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company launched the AI computing platform AICP aimed at large model development scenarios, which is expected to support the demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 8.08 billion yuan, 9.39 billion yuan, and 11.42 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 368 million yuan, 541 million yuan, and 912 million yuan [6][10]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's breakthroughs in AI infrastructure and its leading position in hyper-convergence [6].

行 业 机械设备 2025 年 04 月 06 日 研 究 玲龙一号国内首批新燃料运输容器通过验收，NuScale 第八个小堆模拟机在美国启用 投资要点： 玲龙一号国内首批新燃料运输容器顺利通过验收 行 业 定 期 报 3 月 31 日，由中核工程设计、西核设备承制的"玲龙一号"国内 首批新燃料运输容器顺利通过验收，该产品为国内首次完全自主设计 制造的核电新燃料运输关键设备，标志着我国在该领域的自主设计制 造取得了新突破。 NuScale 第八个小堆模拟机在美国启用 告 NuScale Power 宣布在 美国纽约 Troy 的 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 开设能源探索中心并正式启用。该中心将通过整合实践经验来 补充理论知识，从而加强本科课程。位于 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute （RPI）工程学院在 Troy 校区的 Jonsson 工程中心的能源探索（E2）中 心于 2025 年 2 月安装完毕，通过模拟真实核电站运行场景为用户提供 了实践应用核科学和工程原理的机会。E2 中心采用最先进的计算机建 模来仿真由 12 个 NuScale ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the overall market indices showing declines, while specific sub-sectors like food and feed additives are performing positively [2][16] - Key investment themes include the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, the ChiNext Index by 2.95%, and the CSI 300 by 1.37% during the week [16] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index decreased by 1.36%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index dropped by 1.19% [16] - The top-performing sub-sectors included food and feed additives (0.65%), membrane materials (0.32%), and potassium fertilizers (0.26) [18] Major Industry Developments - Wanhua Chemical's 1.2 million tons/year ethylene plant commenced production successfully on April 3, 2025 [3][25] - TBEA announced a large-scale coal-to-natural gas project with an investment of approximately 17.034 billion yuan, expected to start production in the fourth year [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth stocks such as Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from the improving demand in the panel supply chain [4] - **Cyclical Industries**: Emphasis on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals [5] - **Leading Companies**: As the economy improves, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in prices and demand [5][10] - **Vitamin Supply**: Attention is drawn to vitamin products due to supply disruptions announced by BASF, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market opportunity in the gout treatment sector, with innovative drugs expected to generate over 30 billion in market space [4]. - The report emphasizes the large patient population suffering from high uric acid and gout, with existing medications having various deficiencies [4][25]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Yipin Hong and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, which are leading in the development of innovative gout treatments [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Investment Strategy and Recommended Focus - The recommended focus for the week showed a performance that lagged behind the pharmaceutical index by 1.2 points but outperformed the broader market by 1.3 points [13]. 2. Gout Specialty: Potential for Innovative Drug Blockbusters 2.1. Patient Population and Existing Drug Deficiencies - The prevalence of high uric acid blood syndrome in China is approximately 13.3%, affecting around 177 million people, while gout affects about 14.66 million [25]. - Current treatments for gout and high uric acid have significant safety and efficacy issues, creating a substantial unmet need for effective medications [28]. 2.2. Innovative Drug Pipeline for Gout - The report identifies URAT1 as the primary target for new drug development, with Heng Rui leading domestically and Yipin Hong leading internationally [29]. - The report details that the majority of drugs in clinical development focus on URAT1, with promising candidates like Yipin Hong's AR882 showing superior efficacy in lowering uric acid levels [31]. 2.3. Efficacy of AR882 - Clinical trials indicate that AR882 significantly lowers serum uric acid levels, with 89% of patients achieving target levels after 12 weeks of treatment [34][39]. - The drug demonstrates a favorable safety profile, with only mild to moderate adverse events reported [38][47]. 3. Pharmaceutical Sector Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising by 1.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.5 percentage points [3]. - The report notes that the market's focus on the pharmaceutical sector has increased significantly, driven by ongoing policy support for innovative drugs and domestic procurement optimization [5].

行 业 研 华福证券 究 "对等关税"政策超预期，关注 OEM 对美风险 敞口分化——25W14 周观点 投资要点： "对等关税"政策超预期，关注 OEM 对美风险敞口分化 行 业 定 期 报 告 综合来看，我们预计可选消费板块代工企业基于美国订单收入占 比（对美订单敞口）、海外产能分布等，本次受关税政策影响程度将 有所分化。分行业，纺服代工龙头基本布局东南亚越南、印尼、柬埔 寨等国家，均为本次超预期加征关税国家之列，或对纺服产业链带来 影响；家电企业总计征收关税较高，但大家电对美敞口较低，且在全 球加征关税背景下中国产能性价比较为突出。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅-3.1%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-3.2%/-2.2%/-2.9%/-2.7%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝 环比上周分别-3.98%、-4.71%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+0.03%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅-3.47%， 服装家纺涨跌幅+1.40%。本周 328 级棉现货 14,902 元/吨（0.22%）， 美棉 CotlookA 80.10 美分/磅（+3.49%），内外棉价差 351 元/吨 （-38.64 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in US-China tariff policies have short-term impacts on most export chains and electronic cigarettes, but the long-term competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing remains strong [2] - The report highlights opportunities in domestic demand, particularly in the home furnishing and consumer sectors, if domestic support measures are strengthened [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report anticipates a recovery in home furnishing orders due to promotional events and government subsidies, with many companies currently valued at historical lows [4] - Key companies to watch include custom furniture leaders such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Kuka [4] Paper and Packaging - As of April 3, 2025, various paper prices have shown slight declines, with double glue paper at 5425 CNY/ton, copper plate paper at 5820 CNY/ton, and box board paper at 3556.6 CNY/ton [4][46] - The report recommends companies with integrated wood-pulp-paper operations and those with strong domestic sales expectations, such as Sun Paper and Huawang Technology [4][61] Light Industry Consumption - The report notes a positive performance from companies like Kangnai Optical, which reported a revenue increase of 17.11% year-on-year [4] - It suggests focusing on cultural product leaders like Morning Glory and new consumption trends in toys and personal care [4] Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on imports from Vietnam, Thailand, and other Southeast Asian countries, with tariffs reaching as high as 49% [4][6] - Companies with strong operational momentum and profitability are highlighted, including Zhejiang Ziran and Hars [6] New Tobacco Products - The report mentions the impact of increased tariffs on electronic cigarettes, particularly those produced in Indonesia, with a new tariff of 32% [4] - It suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International, which have strong partnerships and product advantages in the new tobacco market [4] Textile and Apparel - The report indicates that the textile and apparel sector has also been affected by new tariffs, with significant increases for imports from China and Southeast Asia [4] - Key brands to watch include Hai Lan Home and Anta, which are expected to mitigate tariff impacts through cost management [4]

行 华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 04 月 06 日 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 沿江高铁武宜段静态验收启动，清明节当日全国铁路发 送旅客超两千万 投资要点： 时速 350 公里高铁沿江高铁武宜段进入静态验收阶段 行 业 定 期 报 告 4 月 3 日，新建沪渝蓉沿江高铁武汉至宜昌段（沿江高铁武宜段） 静态验收工作正式启动。沿江高铁武宜段于 2021 年 9 月开工，设计时 速 350 公里，正线全长约 313 公里，新建桥梁 88 座，隧道 25 座，桥 隧比 84.8%。新建汉川北、天门、京山南、钟祥南、荆门西、当阳西、 宜昌北等 7 座车站，其中荆门西站部分工程已在 2024 年底荆荆高铁开 通时投用。静态验收是新建铁路工程竣工验收的重要环节，是判定工 程质量是否合格、确定工程能否按期投入运营的关键程序。 清明节铁路发送旅客 2009.3 万人次，创今年以来单日旅客发送量新高 4 月 4 日清明节，全国铁路发送旅客 2009.3 万人次，创今年以来 单日旅客发送量新高，运输安全平稳有序。4 月 5 日，全国铁路预计发 送旅客 1355 万人次，计划加开旅客列车 622 列。截至 4 月 5 日 9 时 ...

有色金属 2025 年 4 月 6 日 有色金属行业周报（3.31-4.4） 美对等关税落地，关注供需偏紧的铝板块 强于大市(维持评级) 一年内行业相对大盘走势 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 2022-06 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 有色金属（申万) 沪深300 | | 1M | 6M | | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.31 | 16.54 | | 相对表现 （pct） | 2.9 | 1.3 | 团队成员 分析师 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 邮箱：WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn ➢ 贵金属：特朗普宣布对等关税，关注流动性风险。本周价格主要 受特朗普对等关税影响。周初美国总统特朗普宣布的新汽车关税在全 世界掀起贸易紧张、导致股市重挫，使投资者纷纷躲进安全避险资 产。4月3日凌晨，特朗普宣布的对等关税政策远超预期，此举将导致 他重返白宫后打响的贸易战愈演愈烈，市场避险情绪急剧升温，金 ...