1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments are in a tight - balance situation. The traditional "base + growth" budget model has drawbacks such as rigid fund allocation and resource waste. Zero - based budgeting, which focuses on actual needs and financial conditions, can improve the efficiency of fiscal resource allocation. The reform of zero - based budgeting is a gradual process, and it is expected to be gradually promoted across the country. The process is more important than the result, aiming to ensure rigid expenditures and support effective industrial development and upgrading [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zero - based Budget Reform Background - Local governments face a prominent contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure. In 2024, the national government - funded budget revenue was 6.209 trillion yuan, a 12.2% decrease from the previous year, and the state - owned land use right transfer revenue decreased by 16%. Compared with the peak in 2021, it has decreased by nearly 3.6 trillion yuan. The expenditure pressure comes from various aspects, such as the "Three Guarantees" and debt repayment [10]. - The traditional incremental budget management model cannot meet the new situation, and relevant policies have emphasized the use of zero - based budgeting concepts to break the rigid expenditure pattern [11]. - The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in 2024 proposed to deepen the zero - based budget reform as a core task of fiscal and tax system reform, and the 2025 Government Work Report supported local zero - based budget reform [12]. 3.2 Zero - based Budget Reform: Meaning, Progress, and Challenges 3.2.1 Meaning and Advantages - The traditional "base + growth" budget model has the advantage of improving budget management efficiency and stability, but it also has disadvantages such as rigid fund allocation and resource waste. Zero - based budgeting, on the other hand, considers actual needs and financial conditions, breaking the "base" concept and rigid expenditure pattern to improve resource allocation efficiency [29][30]. 3.2.2 Zero - based Budget Reform Progress and Current Situation: Preliminary Exploration - **Reform Progress Bar**: The concept of zero - based budgeting was proposed in the 1950s and was implemented in the United States in the 1970s. In China, some localities piloted it in 1993. In the current budget - tight context, the zero - based budget concept has returned to the reform agenda, with central guidance provided in 2021 and 2024 [35]. - **Provincial - level Reform**: Provinces such as Guangdong, Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Tianjin explored earlier, and Anhui, Jiangsu, and Guangxi have also carried out reforms in recent years. Different provinces have different focuses and intensities in reform [3][36]. - **City - and County - level Reform**: They refer to the provincial reform plans and combine local conditions. For example, Wuxi has formed a zero - based budget model through three - year reform practice [37]. - **Reform Case: Anhui** - **Anhui Zero - based Budget 1.0 Version**: In 2022, Anhui launched the reform, focusing on industries and technology. In 2023, it "squeezed" out over 800 million yuan of ineffective fiscal funds at the provincial level. The number of budget items decreased, and the general public budget expenditure at the provincial level decreased. The reform also led to changes in the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure [43][44][47]. - **Anhui Zero - based Budget 2.0 Version**: In 2025, Anhui launched the 2.0 version, extending the reform to the county - level and to areas such as people's livelihood and public services, and promoting cost - based budget performance management [59][60]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Key Points of Zero - based Budget Reform Schemes in Different Provinces - **Reform of Budget Preparation Methods**: This includes project expenditure refinement, industry - specific reform directions, and the establishment of project sorting mechanisms. For example, Jiangsu requires project funds to be refined, and Anhui focuses on industries and technology first [64][66][67]. - **Strengthening Fiscal Resource Coordination**: Non - tax revenue does not determine budget expenditures, and special funds have clear management regulations. For example, Jiangsu implements the "two - line management" of non - tax revenue, and Anhui sets a maximum three - year execution period for special funds [68]. - **Deepening Supporting System Reforms**: For example, Hunan proposes to establish a system to reduce fiscal expenditure standards and promote project life - cycle management [69]. - **Standardizing Budget Management**: Hunan proposes not to link budget arrangements with certain revenue indicators and to strengthen the management of treasury temporary payments [70]. 3.2.4 Comparison of Reform Effects - Anhui significantly reduced ineffective policies and expenditures after the reform in 2022, and the general public budget expenditure at the provincial level decreased in 2023. - Guangxi reduced "Three Publics and Two Fees" and increased transfer payments to cities and counties [77][79]. 3.2.5 Challenges in Reform - High requirements for budget preparation personnel: Zero - based budgeting requires high - frequency evaluation of project rationality and life - cycle tracking, which is time - consuming and requires a large number of professional personnel [82]. - Reform resistance: It may change the original expenditure structure and face resistance from some groups [82]. - Lack of supporting measures: The reform requires the coordinated advancement of relevant laws, regulations, and information construction, but currently, the reform synergy is insufficient [82]. 3.3 Reform Outlook The zero - based budget reform is a gradual process, and it is expected to be gradually promoted across the country. Different regions will have different progress based on their economic and political environments. The reform should be carried out incrementally, starting with strict approval of new projects and performance evaluation of existing projects [4][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an expected revenue growth of 6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, and corresponding net profit growth of 8%, 7%, and 10% for the same years [5][7]. Core Insights - The company has signed a share acquisition intention agreement to acquire all or part of the controlling stake in Shaanxi Changkong Gear, which is expected to enhance its technical strength and core capabilities in the precision technology sector [3][4]. - The company is focusing on transforming and upgrading its precision technology business, leveraging its key technologies in watch movements, component manufacturing, and aerospace watch development [4]. - The acquisition target, Changkong Gear, is a specialized enterprise within the Aviation Industry Group, with projected revenue of 372 million yuan and net profit of 22.97 million yuan in 2024, indicating its status as a national-level specialized and innovative small giant enterprise [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 4,570 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 3,941 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 4,164 million yuan in 2025 [7]. - The net profit is expected to decrease from 333 million yuan in 2023 to 220 million yuan in 2024, with a gradual increase to 237 million yuan in 2025 and 253 million yuan in 2026 [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.54 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.58 yuan in 2025 and 0.62 yuan in 2026 [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan for every 10 shares in 2024, amounting to a total cash dividend of 162 million yuan, which represents 73.66% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical index has shown positive returns across most of the six sub-industries, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1][9]. - The draft of the "Best Practice Framework for AI in Pharmacovigilance" was released on May 1, aiming to guide the development and application of AI in monitoring adverse drug reactions. This technology is expected to bring revolutionary improvements to drug safety monitoring, although a risk-oriented regulatory and governance system is necessary [2][7]. - According to the "China Pharmacovigilance Industry Research Report," the Chinese pharmacovigilance market is experiencing significant growth, with 2.419 million adverse drug reaction reports filed in 2023, reflecting an improvement in monitoring capabilities [2][8]. Group 2 - The report notes that the global pharmacovigilance market was valued at 58.568 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.02%, reaching approximately 103.894 billion by 2028 [8]. - The report emphasizes that the domestic AI healthcare models are rapidly developing, and the pharmacovigilance industry is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, necessitating the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework [8]. - The report indicates that the innovation drug sector is entering a harvest period, supported by strong policy backing and innovation-driven growth, which is expected to enhance the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector [16][20].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - In May, both domestic and imported game licenses were issued normally, with 130 domestic games and 14 imported games receiving approval [2][3]. - Notable game releases include Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group," which has seen a rapid increase in rankings since its launch, reaching 33rd in the sales chart by May 30 [4][5]. - Jibite's "Sword Legend," featuring a Q-version art style, has resonated well with younger audiences, achieving a sales ranking of 12 by June 4 after its launch on May 29 [6]. - Perfect World’s "Yihuan" has garnered significant attention, with nearly 5.4 million views on its recruitment video by June 4 [7]. Company Summaries - **Giant Network**: "Supernatural Action Group" launched a million incentive plan, leading to a significant rise in its sales ranking [5]. - **Jibite**: "Sword Legend" targets young players with its appealing art style and has quickly climbed the sales rankings [6]. - **Perfect World**: "Yihuan" has high engagement metrics, indicating strong market interest ahead of its testing phase [7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: The report recommends focusing on companies such as Jibite, Baotong Technology, Shenzhou Taiyue, Giant Network, Yaoji Technology, Shengtian Network, Xinghui Entertainment, Perfect World, and Zhangqu Technology for potential investment opportunities [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond ETFs will continue to expand significantly this year, with ample room for future development. Their holding income and trading attributes are prominent, and the market has broad growth potential [13][22]. - Credit - bond ETFs are expected to attract more capital inflows, and their net asset value will grow rapidly, enhancing their investment value [5][61]. - Benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs may be a preferred choice for allocation in a low - interest - rate environment, worthy of investors' attention [67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond ETFs - **Market Scale**: As of May 28, 2025, there were 29 bond ETFs in the market, with a total net asset value of 281.404 billion yuan. This year's scale growth has caught up with that of the whole of last year [2][12][13]. - **Performance**: Since 2024, treasury bond ETFs, local government bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs have higher absolute returns, while local government bond ETFs and benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs have stronger risk - resistance capabilities. In terms of risk - return ratio, local government bond ETFs have the highest Sharpe ratio [3][21]. - **Comparison with Bond Funds**: In 2024, bond ETFs had stronger return capabilities and faster share growth compared to active/passive bond funds [22]. 3.2 Credit - bond ETFs - **Scale and Growth**: Short - term financing ETFs have obvious scale advantages and the fastest growth rate. The combined net asset value of 8 newly - established benchmark - market - making corporate bond ETFs has exceeded 60 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 185.64% compared to their inception [4][27]. - **Performance**: As of May 28, 2025, the cumulative returns of urban investment bond ETFs, short - term financing ETFs, and corporate bond ETFs were 5.16%, 2.83%, and 4.11% respectively. In the past month, 4 benchmark - market - making corporate bond ETFs and 1 urban investment bond ETF had annualized returns of over 6.20% [5][35]. - **Liquidity**: The 8 benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs have higher turnover rates, and their liquidity is expected to further improve [5][62]. 3.3 Credit - bond ETF Investment Strategies - **Characteristics of Benchmark - Market - Making Credit - bond ETFs**: They have high - quality underlying assets, wide - range maturity coverage, significant cost advantages, and flexible trading mechanisms [66][67]. - **Investment Advantages**: For investors with liquidity management requirements, purchasing long - term credit bonds through bond ETFs can enhance portfolio flexibility and reduce liquidity risks [6][71].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, along with the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9] - The report outlines a quantitative screening process focusing on four types of patterns to identify high-odds thematic opportunities and the construction of trading heat indicators to track peak trends [2][9] - The current thematic index shows 27 breakout patterns, primarily in the defense and military industry (6 stocks) and non-ferrous metals (5 stocks), while 20 stocks exhibit main rising patterns, including 8 in the pharmaceutical and biological sector and 7 in the computer industry [12] Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot and Deepseek themes has declined, with humanoid robots at 67% and Deepseek at 53%, indicating a downward trend in interest [3][17] - Leading stocks in these themes, such as Changsheng Bearing and Daily Interaction, are trading below their 60-day moving average by -16% and -14.9% respectively, suggesting a bearish sentiment [3][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, supported by policies aimed at boosting housing demand and improving purchasing power. This is expected to enhance the overall market sentiment and reduce credit risks for companies in the construction materials sector [5][12] - Short-term pressures for growth have led to renewed emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector, while medium to long-term monetary and fiscal policy adjustments are anticipated to further support the market [12] - The report highlights that the construction materials sector has limited room for further deterioration compared to the end of 2022, with expectations for both fundamental recovery and valuation improvement [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - As of Q1 2025, the balance of real estate loans in RMB reached 53.54 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. Personal housing loans decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 0.5 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [12] - Various local governments have introduced measures to stimulate housing consumption and support the real estate market, including tax adjustments and incentives for home purchases [12] 2. Weekly High-Frequency Data - The average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement nationwide is 375 RMB/ton, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 5.7% year-on-year [3][13] - The factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1230 RMB/ton, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 25.9% year-on-year [3][22] 3. Sector Review - The construction materials index increased by 0.18% this week, while the overall market indices saw slight declines [4][54] - Among sub-sectors, other building materials and cement products showed positive performance, while cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experienced slight declines [4][54] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [5]

行 业 研 究 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：特朗普威胁对非美制造手机加征 关税，关注折叠屏等新产品进展 投资要点： 特朗普威胁对苹果等手机征收 25%关税 行 业 定 期 报 告 根据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台上发文表 示，他期待苹果公司在美国销售的 iPhone 将在美国制造和生产，而不 是在印度或其他地方。特朗普称，如果苹果、三星的相关产品不在美 国制造，将征收 25%关税。若苹果公司、三星在美国建厂，将免征关 税。相关政策预计从 6 月底开始实施。 华为发布首款鸿蒙折叠电脑 华为发布全球首款鸿蒙折叠电脑华为 MateBook Fold 非凡大师。 这款折叠电脑整机重 1.16kg，展开时 18 英寸 3.3K 分辨率 4:3 英寸比例； 折叠的时候单面比例 3:2，整体 13 英寸，配备全球最大双层 OLED 显 示屏，号称是电脑行业首次商用 LTPO 技术屏幕使用碳纤维支撑层， 号称抗冲击能力提升 3 倍。此外，华为折叠电脑还用了全球最大尺寸 玄武水滴铰链，超高精度一体式承重主轴，超高密度锆基液态金属。 苹果或将于 26 年秋季发布首款折叠屏 iPhone 据中国基金报报道，苹果首款 ...

行 业 研 究 入 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 06 月 02 日 医药生物 A/H Pharma 估值水平如何？管线+商业化值得 重估 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 5 月 26 日- 2025 年 5 月 30 日） 中信医药 指数上涨 2.2%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.3 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 3 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 7.0%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 9.4pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：舒泰神 （+60.41%）、华森制药（+42.08%）、常山药业（+35.91%）、华纳药厂 （+32.70%）、益方生物（+30.51%）。 Pharma 价值重估正当时，"商业化能力+创新平台"值得重视：通过 梳理港股和A股主要 Pharma公司后，我们发现港股和A股仍有部分 Pharma 被低估。我们认为站在当前时点，医保端和创新药产业链方面的支持都有 望为 Pharma 长期增长奠定基础，无论是 Pharma 的商业化能力和研发创新 平台价值，都值得重估。（1）医保资金腾笼换鸟，创新药产业支持政 ...

团队成员 投资要点： 【周观点】近期各大电商平台 618 大促预热，看好个护品牌突围，持续推 荐登康口腔、稳健医疗、百亚股份，建议关注豪悦护理；5 月 25 日李未可 在合肥举办首次线下发布会，发布 3 款 AI 眼镜，关注智能眼镜子板块新品 催化。 一年内行业相对大盘走势 行 业 华福证券 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 02 日 相关报告 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 轻工制造 618 大促看好个护国牌崛起，关注智能眼镜 新品催化 1、轻工纺服行业周报：浆系纸发布涨价函，新消 费子板块景气向上——2025.05.25 2、【华福商社】卡游：卡牌行业龙头，全产业链 打造 IP 泛消费聚合平台——2025.05.20 3、轻工纺服行业周报： ...