行 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 04 月 06 日 业 研 究 煤炭 煤价企稳，关税冲击下能源安全意义重大 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 4 月 3 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 665 元/吨， 周环比持平。晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 82.1%，周环比-0.04pct。本周 电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存微涨，动力煤库存指数小跌，秦港库存小跌。 非电方面，甲醇开工率小涨、尿素开工率微跌，仍处于历史同期偏高 水平，截至 4 月 3 日，甲醇开工率为 86.2%，周环比+2.1pct，年同比 +4.0pct；截至 4 月 2 日，尿素开工率为 85.9%，周环比-0.3pct，年同比 +0.03pct。 焦煤 截至 4 月 3 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1380 元/吨，周环比持平，山 西产地价格大涨、河南、安徽产地价格大跌。本周焦炭价格持平、螺 纹钢价格微跌，截至 4 月 3 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1350 元/ 吨，周环比持平，螺纹钢现货价格 3220 元，周环比+10 元/吨，焦炭第 十一轮提降落地。 核心观点 关税对煤炭的冲击主要体现在短期经济的压力，中期潜在的内 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][70]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and self-sufficiency in the defense and military industry, highlighting the sector's resilience amid external pressures such as trade tensions [4][46]. - The military industry is expected to show strong recovery in 2025, driven by rigid demand and high domestic-driven proportions, making it a sector with significant investment potential [4][46]. - The report suggests focusing on traditional main battle equipment and high-elasticity sectors that will span the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [4][50]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military industry index (801740) decreased by 1.96% from March 31 to April 3, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.37%, resulting in an underperformance of 0.59 percentage points [19]. - Since May 2024, the military index has increased by 14.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 7.13%, with a relative excess return of 7.23 percentage points [21]. Market Dynamics - Passive fund sizes and shares in military ETFs have significantly increased, indicating strong confidence in the sector [32][47]. - The military sector's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 60.8, placing it in the 76.47 percentile, suggesting high allocation value at this time [4][50]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include traditional main battle equipment manufacturers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, as well as companies involved in commercial engines and materials [4][50]. - The report identifies potential high-growth areas such as low-cost drones and controlled nuclear fusion technologies [4][50]. Recent Developments - The report notes significant policy changes affecting the military sector, including new tariffs imposed by the U.S. and corresponding responses from China, which historically have led to increased performance in the defense sector during trade tensions [4][46]. - The military sector's strong performance during previous trade conflicts suggests a pattern of resilience and potential for future growth [4][46].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][57] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the international environment is turbulent, and domestic demand promotion may be the main theme for the market [3][13] - The SW Baijiu index PE-TTM is currently at 19.97, which is at a very low percentile of 8.93% over the past 10 years, indicating a strong safety margin [3][14] - The report suggests that the white liquor industry is expected to enter a healthier new phase as channel inventory is continuously digested during peak seasons [14] - The report highlights the importance of rational target setting for liquor companies in 2025, which is crucial for the industry's cyclical trends [14] Summary by Sections Baijiu - The report recommends focusing on companies like Moutai and Wuliangye, which have price stabilization and market share enhancement capabilities [3][14] - The report notes that the white liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 0.71% this week, with some companies like Huangtai and Jinhui showing gains [12] Beer - Key recommendations include Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, which are expected to benefit from high-end strategies and efficiency reforms [19][15] - The report anticipates stable beer sales in 2025, with revenue growth driven by structural upgrades [18] Soft Drinks - The report suggests focusing on East Peak Beverage, which is exploring a second growth curve, and Xiangpiaopiao, which has positive fundamentals [20][19] Pre-mixed Drinks - The report identifies Baijun as a leading company in the pre-mixed drinks sector, with a favorable PE ratio and significant growth potential [23][22] Dairy Products - The report recommends Yili, a national dairy giant, focusing on profit-oriented strategies and product structure optimization [24][24] Snacks - The report highlights the snack sector's resilience, suggesting companies like Ximai Foods and Ganyuan Foods as potential investment opportunities [27][29] Condiments & Catering - Key recommendations include Angel Yeast, which is expected to benefit from strong domestic sales and overseas growth [34][35] Baking Supply Chain - The report recommends Lihai Foods and Huirong Technology, which are expected to show strong performance due to market dynamics [39][39] Health Products & Sweeteners - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the health products sector, particularly for companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Huakang [40][32] Catering - Recommendations include Yum China and other companies that are expected to benefit from supply chain optimization and brand development [41][45] Pet Industry - The report suggests focusing on companies like Zhongchong and Peidi, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international market dynamics [46][49] Gold & Jewelry - The report recommends companies like Chaohongji and Zhou Dashi, which are expected to perform well amid high gold prices [50][50]

行 机械设备 2025 年 04 月 06 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：美国宣布加征关税，关注 3C 设 备的超跌机会 投资要点： 美国宣布加征关税，国产品牌表现强势 美国总统特朗普宣布，将从 4 月 5 日起对所有出口到美国的商品 征收至少 10%的关税，其中，中国将面临 34%的关税；美国官员表示， 对中国的实际总关税率升至 54%。 A 股果链公司大幅下跌，截至 2025/4/3 收盘时，立讯精密下跌 9.99%、蓝思科技下跌 10.68%%，博众精工下跌 8.96%。 苹果或将积极争取关税豁免 此前，苹果公司宣布其有史以来最大规模的投资承诺，计划未来 4 年内在美国支出和投资超过 5000 亿美元（约合 3.6 万亿元人民币）。 苹果在特朗普第一任期内多次宣布在美投资，成功游说特朗普， 使其决定不对 iPhone 征收关税。如今特朗普再度上台，苹果或再次采 取类似策略，通过战略性投资来迎合特朗普的政策方向。 关注国产手机品牌相关设备的机会 根据信通院数据，2024 年国内市场手机出货量 3.14 亿部，同比增 长 8.7%，其中国产品牌手机出货量 2.69 亿部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.134 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 29.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [3]. - The company is a leading player in the potassium fertilizer market, with stable foundations and a significant cost advantage in lithium extraction from salt lakes [2][4]. - The company is implementing a three-step development strategy aimed at establishing a world-class salt lake industry by 2035, with ambitious production targets for potassium fertilizer and lithium salts [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.686 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.9%, and a net profit of 1.522 billion yuan, up 63.8% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The potassium chloride production for 2024 was 4.96 million tons, with a sales volume of 4.6728 million tons, reflecting a 16.56% year-on-year decline in sales volume [4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride in 2024 was 2,507 yuan per ton, down 3.97% year-on-year, while the sales cost decreased to 1,170 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 53.34%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The lithium carbonate production increased by 10.92% year-on-year to 40,000 tons, but the average selling price fell by 56.31% to 74,000 yuan per ton, with a gross margin of 50.68%, down 21.77 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company has a 40,000-ton lithium salt project that is 55% complete, with plans to release part of the new capacity in 2025, expecting to produce 3,000 tons [6]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.52 billion yuan, 6.44 billion yuan, and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to lower lithium prices and reduced new lithium salt production [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that April may open a configuration window for dividend assets, benefiting from the approaching US tariff policy and concerns over earnings disclosures, leading to increased market volatility in March [2][3][8] - The report anticipates an influx of approximately 116 billion yuan in new insurance premiums, which will gradually convert into actual investments in dividend assets [3][8] - The AH dual-market rotation strategy aims to construct a more favorable dividend+ portfolio, with a focus on enhancing overall returns through the analysis of driving factors for A-shares and H-shares [9][10] Group 2 - The AH dividend rotation strategy for April emphasizes a significant preference for Hong Kong dividend assets, with a proposed allocation of 5% to A-share dividends and 95% to Hong Kong share dividends [9][10] - The report identifies five major driving factors, including the US disturbance index and seasonal effects in H-shares, which significantly influence the AH dividend rotation indicators [9][10]

行 业 华福证券 交通运输 研 究 2025 年 1-2 月快递行业数据点评 2025 年 M1-M2 行业件量同比持续提升，需求仍具韧性 事件：国家邮政局披露 2025 年 1~2 月行业经营数据，A 股快递公司披 露 25 年 1~2 月经营数据。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 商流：社零同比持续增长，网购渗透率略降。2025 年 1~2 月，国内社 零总额为 8.4 万亿元，同比+3.0%；实物商品网上零售额为 1.9 万亿元，同 比+2.3%；实物商品网购渗透率为 22.3%，同比-0.1pp，环比-6.0pp。 量：25M1-2 快递件量同比+19.8%，持续高速增长。2025 年 1~2 月实 现快递业务量 284.8 亿件，同比+19.8%，快递件量增速仍保持中速增长。 分类型看，异地同比+24.5%； 分区域看，东部快递同比+19.6%。 价：1-2 月 ASP 同比下降，全行业 ASP 同比-9.2%。2025 年 1~2 月， 全国快递业务平均单价为 7.76 元，同比下降 0.79 元（-9.2%）。分区域看， 2025 年 1~2 月，东、中和西部快递平均单价分别为 8.01、6.22 和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with operating income at 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.58 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [3][15]. - The lithium business showed a mixed performance with a production of 11,566 tons, down 4.12% year-on-year, but sales volume increased by 31.68% to 13,582 tons due to rising market demand [4]. - The potassium business faced challenges with a production of 1.073 million tons, down 1.94% year-on-year, and sales volume down 19.21% [5]. - The investment income from the Giant Dragon Copper Mine was a significant contributor, amounting to 1.928 billion yuan, representing a 48.77% increase year-on-year and accounting for 74.72% of the company's net profit [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 927 million yuan, a 65% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 712 million yuan, up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate in 2024 was 85,000 yuan per ton, down 60.81% year-on-year, while the average market price was 90,500 yuan per ton, down 65.6% [4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,305.66 yuan per ton, down 14.91% year-on-year [5]. Business Segments - The lithium segment's gross margin was 45.44%, down 35.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from brine prices and equipment maintenance [4]. - The potassium segment's gross margin was 44.83%, down 11.37 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased environmental compliance costs [5]. - The company is expanding its lithium, potassium, and copper operations, with significant progress in obtaining mining rights and project developments [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.013 billion, 4.133 billion, and 6.159 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment due to unexpected copper price increases [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19, 14, and 9 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].

华福证券 2025 年 04 月 03 日 金 融 工 程 科创综指增强基金、自由现金流 ETF 获批，政策 支持下被动基金快速发展 投资要点： 政策驱动基金市场加速创新，行业高质量发展趋势凸显 金 1）多只科创综指增强基金首次获批。3 月 25 日，天弘、博时、国投瑞银 等基金公司旗下的科创综指增强基金正式获批。这批产品自 2 月 28 日上报 以来，仅一个月便完成审批，标志着科创板投资工具进一步丰富。 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 2）QDII 基金接连开放限购门槛。近期，华泰柏瑞、景顺长城等基金公司 调整纳斯达克主题 QDII 基金申购政策，或恢复申购，或放松申购门槛，应 对美股回调与外汇额度压力。 3）指数基金费率改革。3 月，多家基金管理人发布公告，宣布使用费转由 管理人承担，覆盖 ETF、债券指数基金等，此举降低投资成本，优化指数 化投资生态。 4）自由现金流 ETF 布局。嘉实、汇添富等数十家公募基金密集申报自由 现金流 ETF，华宝、摩根旗下沪深 300 相关产品获批，创新策略指数工具 加速扩容。 3 月新发基金规模环比增长但平均份额下滑，债基主导发行市场 3 月新成立基金 135 只（1,00 ...

弱景气下红利风格或可持续占优 证券研究报告|专题报告 金融工程 2025年4月3日 ----红利选股策略的构建 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号： S0210524100005 赵馨 执业证书编号： S0210525010002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 基本面回暖不易，弱景气下红利风格或可持续占优。2011年至今红利全收益指数相对于中证全指全收益指数存在相对优势，红利 指数本身在大市值和小市值股票上均有覆盖。行业板块视角，红利成分集中于银行、地产、交通运输、电力及公共事业等。2022 年年底开始红利指数的波动提升至历史相对高位，近期红利指数的低波优势收敛。我们认为红利风格将会持续的原因在于当前市 场利润增速放缓，企业的基本面改善不易。且从杜邦三要素分析基本面改善路径发现，销售净利率和资产周转率处于不同程度下 行，且同比改善的企业在市场占少数。 ➢ 波动、估值、流动性、基本面能够共振增强红利表现，且需放宽标的限制以放大红利特征。将高股息与各类因子进行交叉分组检 验，低波表征股价稳定、净资产收益率刻画企业综合基本面情况、市盈率筛选存在估值优势的股票， ...