| 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | 1.8 | 6.9 | -2.7 | | 沪深 300 | -4.1 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 市场表现 2025 年 04 月 13 日 外围环境持续承压，期待消费需求回暖 推荐(维持) 投资要点 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：关税靴子 落地，白酒韧性凸显》2025-04-06 2、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，关注结构性机会》2025- 03-30 3、《食品饮料行业周报：春糖会反 馈符合预期，政策端 ...

2025 年 04 月 13 日 外围环境持续承压，期待消费需求回暖 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | 1.8 | 6.9 | -2.7 | | 沪深 300 | -4.1 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：关税靴子 落地，白酒韧性凸显》2025-04-06 2、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，关注结构性机会》2025- 03-30 3、《食品饮料行业周报：春糖会反 馈符合预期，政策端 ...

2025 年 04 月 13 日 首个人形机器人马拉松即将开跑，双新政策推动 乘用车 3 月零售增长强劲 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) -7.9 7.3 18.4 沪深 300 -4.1 0.8 7.9 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 目前宇树科技、北京具身智能机器人创新中心、乐聚机器 人、松延动力、灵宝、魔法原子、上海青心意创等皆在参赛 队列。参赛机器人需满足严格标准，具备人形外观，以双足 行走或奔跑，禁止轮式结构；控制方式可为手动遥控或完全 自主。据央视网介绍，要完成 21 公里的半马，基本上每个机 器人都要在途中进行几次换电操作，每支队伍都有自己的保 障团队进行保障。赛道涵盖了城市道路（平坦柏油路、坑洼 裂缝路段）、坡度路段（长缓坡、短陡坡）以及公园区域 （石板路、草地、石子路）等多种复杂路况。在路测过程 中 ， 乐 聚 的 " 夸 父 " 人 形 机 器 人 ， 其 步 速 最 高 ...

2025 年 04 月 13 日 质量因子超额继续上行，关注内需消费 —风格和行业因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 行业因子上周最大特征是仅有营业总成本/营业总收入录得 绝对收益，财报质量因子继续超额，有望持续到至少四月 中下旬。短端动量、长端反转超额靠前，资金流方面主力 资金净流入口径开始有效。 财报质量细分因子聚合方式来看市值加权计算方法优于等 权法，说明一季报仍以行业龙头为风向标，风格上也在逐 步重回大盘。基于财报质量因子行业上继续关注食品饮 料、医药、有色金属、电力，重视交运和大金融的机会。 整体看行业轮动因子指向防御：主力资金因子大幅失效， 叠加市场缩量可能预示流动性短缺。本期多头计算机、商 贸零售、房地产、建筑；短期分析师预期指向交运、钢 铁、轻工、化工。中美关税博弈仍然继续，外围市场继续 大幅波动，本期选择行业继续偏向防御和内需，需关注低 位消费、地产链短期反弹机会。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资主力资金因子为代表的资金流 （10%）、细分因子长端景气（10%）、短端预期（30%）、动 量（20%）、财报质量因子（30%）。 复合因子本周挑选交运、农林牧渔、钢铁、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with a slight underperformance in profit growth due to reduced government subsidies. In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were CNY 20.749 billion and CNY 3.570 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 6.23% and 5.31% [6]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure and is committed to a full lifecycle layout in its offerings. The revenue from infant formula, other dairy products, and nutritional supplements in 2024 was CNY 19.062 billion, CNY 1.514 billion, and CNY 0.173 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.63%, 6.35%, and -25.37% [7]. - The company is effectively developing both online and offline channels, with over 77.1% of sales coming from offline channels. In 2024, the company held over 920,000 offline events, achieving a conversion rate of 28% for its "Mom's Love" initiative [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 22.020 billion in 2025 to CNY 24.300 billion in 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise from CNY 0.43 to CNY 0.50 during the same period. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 13, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is reported at 66.34%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is at 17.61%, up by 0.77 percentage points [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with a slight underperformance in profit growth due to reduced government subsidies. In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 20.749 billion and 3.570 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 6.23% and 5.31% [6]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure and expanding its lifecycle nutrition product offerings, with significant growth in infant formula and other dairy products [7]. - The company is effectively developing both online and offline channels, with a strong push into overseas markets, including Canada and Southeast Asian countries [8][9]. - The company anticipates growth driven by new fertility policies and aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem for nutrition products [10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 66.34% and a net profit margin of 17.61%, with respective year-on-year increases of 1.51 and 0.77 percentage points [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 22.020 billion, 23.198 billion, and 24.300 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.46, and 0.50 yuan [10]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a stable growth trajectory, with a projected ROE of around 13.8% for 2025 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady demand recovery and continued high growth overseas, with 2024 revenue reaching 151.97 billion yuan, a 12% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 13.25 billion yuan, up 4% [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages due to declining raw material prices, particularly molasses, which has led to an improvement in gross margin [5] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with significant growth in yeast and deep processing products, and is focusing on increasing its overseas business [6][7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 42.85 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.71 billion yuan, also up 4% [4] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.15%, an increase of 1 percentage point, while the net margin slightly decreased to 8.94% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from yeast and deep processing products was 108.54 billion yuan in 2024, a 14% increase, with domestic demand showing signs of recovery [6] - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 94.21 billion yuan, an 8% increase, while international revenue reached 57.12 billion yuan, a 19% increase [7] Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - The company is advancing its production capacity expansion, with projects in Yunnan and other regions expected to contribute to growth [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.80 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times [9]

2025 年 04 月 12 日 经营质量跃升+全球化加速+智变转型突破，三大 战略引擎驱动业绩增长 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：尤少炜 S1050525030002 yousw@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 2025-04-11 | 当前股价（元） | 10.88 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 220 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2019 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2018 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 9.23-13.38 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 416.7 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 柳工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《柳工（000528）：市场回暖与 运营效率提升共振，助推 2024 年业 绩大幅增长》2025-02-13 2、《柳工（000528）：提质增效战 略成效显著，公司业绩表现优异》 2024-10-29 3、《柳工（000528）：提质增效战 略成效显著，盈利能力持续提升》 2024-10-21 —柳工（000528.SZ）公司事件点评报告 柳工于 2025 年 3 ...

2025 年 04 月 12 日 合资设立丝杠及设备子公司，进军机器人赛道 —嵘泰股份（605133.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《嵘泰股份（605133）：一季度 盈利能力改善明显，海外业务发展 提速》2024-06-27 2、《嵘泰股份（605133）：布局一 体化压铸，墨西哥工厂成新增长 极》2023-11-28 向上游拓展，发力丝杠螺纹磨床。嵘泰股份子公司还将与润 孚合资成立一家螺纹设备孙公司，子公司河北力准机械持股 65%，润孚持股 35%。合资孙公司将主要开发、生产用于制造 行星滚柱丝杠、滚珠丝杠的相关专用型设备及通用设备，牢 牢把握丝杠杠螺纹加工产能瓶颈。河北力准机械致力于高精 度、高效率、高科技数控设备产品的研发与设计，可生产微 型钻孔和铣削工具用磨床、标准钻头用多工位磨床等磨床产 品，拥有"复合高效加工机床"、"刀具磨削夹具机构及加 工磨床"等专利。河北力准现有员工 200 人，其中技术人员 76 人，技术团队实力雄厚。 证 券 研 究 报 告 基本数据 2025-04-11 当前股价（元） 30.3 总市值（亿元） 66 总股 ...

2025 年 04 月 12 日 多维战略应对关税挑战，全球竞争力持续巩固 —浙江鼎力（603338.SH）公司动态研究报告 买入(维持) 投资要点 分析师：尤少炜 S1050525030002 yousw@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2 0 2 5-0 4-1 1 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 45.19 | | 总市值（亿元） | 229 | | 总股本（百万股） | 506 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 506 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 44-72.98 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 346.48 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 浙江鼎力 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 ▌深化美国本土化布局，应对市场关税挑战 公司凭借丰富的贸易摩擦及"双反"调查应对经验，拥有应 对海外关税的方案，根据税率变化启动相应预案。公司与美 国 CMEC 合作已久，2024 年完成对美国 CMEC 公司的收购，拥 有在美国本土生产制造高空平台的能力，有效规避高关税对 出口成本的直接冲击。依托 CMEC 本土化生产基地 ...