证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 关税博弈下的大类资产策略 报告日期： 2025年06月04日 核心结论： 5/12中美会谈联合声明大超预期，虽然后续谈判或仍有波折，且行业关税值得警惕，但关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，市场情绪逐步修复。海外宏观聚焦滞和胀角力， 交易逻辑沿着滞胀-衰退-宽松轮动。美股走强，美债和美元走势背离，衰退风险仍需警惕。美股冲击前高动能不足，预计高位震荡。美债脉冲4.5后的做多机会显现，可逐步配置。黄 金短期震荡，关注3150附近支撑。国内进入政策观察期、经济降温期，业绩与估值再平衡，预计A股区间震荡，重回哑铃策略，关注小盘成长和低波红利。 关税进展：升级后缓和，资产逻辑摇摆 关税动向：中美和谈比市场最乐观的预期还要乐观，关税冲击最激烈的阶段基本过去，后续关注行业关税。 关税影响：若24的对等关税能在90天内如期取消，30关税对中国GDP的拖累在1个百分点左右，对应政策对冲的必要性和紧迫性降低，进入政策观望期。 资产逻辑：大类资产避险资产占优-权益资产修复-震荡运行，已修复4/3以来跌幅。 海外策略：滞与胀角力 ，等待降息信号 海外宏观：目前滞的压力缓和，降息推迟至9月，年内仅有两次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, with a focus on humanoid robots and related technologies [5][44]. Core Insights - The development of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to advance significantly, with plans for it to be sent to Mars by the end of 2026, potentially validating its practical applications [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of key components such as lead screws, dexterous hands, and assemblies in the humanoid robot sector, recommending specific companies for investment [6][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Valuation - The CITIC Automotive Index fell by 4.3%, underperforming the broader market by 3.2 percentage points, with passenger vehicles down by 8.9% [14][15]. - The automotive industry PE (TTM) stands at 30.8, while the PB is at 2.8, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [26]. Industry Data Tracking and Commentary - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in May showed a mixed performance, with a year-on-year decline of 11% in the first week but a 30% increase in the second week [35]. - The report notes that the automotive market is supported by government consumption promotion policies and a vibrant spring auto show [35][36]. Recommended Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies recommended include: - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.24 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [46]. - Redik (300652.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.22 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [46]. - Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.12 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [46]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies involved in the production of lead screws, linear joint assemblies, and sensors [5][44]. Industry News and Developments - GAC has begun selling cars in Brazil and plans to establish a local factory by the end of 2026 [51][52]. - Chinese automotive brands saw a 79% increase in sales in Europe in April, indicating strong market growth [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, with a focus on humanoid robots and related technologies [5][44][46]. Core Insights - The development of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to advance significantly, with plans for it to be sent to Mars by the end of 2026, which will validate its practical applications [4][44]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a transformation, with opportunities arising from the integration of robotics and automation technologies [5][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Valuation - The CITIC Automotive Index fell by 4.3%, underperforming the market by 3.2 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.1% [14]. - The automotive industry PE (TTM) stands at 30.8, while the PB is at 2.8, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [26]. Industry Data Tracking and Commentary - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in May showed a mixed performance, with a year-on-year decline of 11% in the first week but a 30% increase in the second week [35]. - The wholesale data for passenger vehicles indicated a cumulative increase of 12% year-on-year for the year to date [35]. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks recommended include: - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) with a target EPS of 1.42 for 2025 and a PE of 30.71 [46]. - Leadrive (300652.SZ) with a target EPS of 1.52 for 2025 and a PE of 53.10 [46]. - JAC Motors (600418.SH) with a target EPS of 0.25 for 2025 and a PE of 141.40 [46]. - Other notable mentions include companies involved in the production of linear actuators, sensors, and components for humanoid robots [5][44]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots in the automotive sector, particularly in areas such as linear actuators and sensors, which are critical for the development of advanced robotics [5][44]. - The integration of robotics into the automotive industry is seen as a key driver for future growth, with specific recommendations for companies positioned in this space [5][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Heart Heart Fertilizer (1866.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable expansion in its main business, with significant investment value highlighted [1]. - The sale of coal mine assets has led to a notable increase in net profit, with a reported increase of approximately 740 million RMB in investment income from the disposal of stakes in coal mining companies [5]. - The urea business has shown resilient growth despite a decrease in product prices, with production volume increasing by 21% and sales volume by 29%, resulting in a revenue of approximately 7.306 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of about 6.3% [6]. - The company has prioritized shareholder returns, achieving a record high dividend of 0.25 RMB per share for the fiscal year 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 22.14% and a dividend yield of 6.7% [7]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 24.767 billion, 29.502 billion, and 34.578 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.9, 1.5, and 2.1 RMB, suggesting a low PE ratio of 4.5, 2.9, and 2.1 times [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price is currently at 4.52 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 5.8 billion HKD and a 52-week price range of 3.36-4.79 HKD [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 23.128 billion RMB, a slight decline of 1.48% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 22.96% to 1.459 billion RMB [4]. - The financial projections indicate a gradual increase in revenue and net profit over the next three years, with a significant expected growth rate in 2026 and 2027 [10][11]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 25% from 2025 to 2027, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [7].

2025 年 06 月 04 日 市场情绪：64 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 64 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、低碳、无人驾驶 1、人工智能主题：OpenAI 日前宣布以 65 亿美元全股收 购由苹果前首席设计师 JonyIve 创立的 AI 硬件初创公司 io，并计划推出一款革命性的 AI"伴侣"设备，目标在 2026 年底前发货 1 亿台。这款设备旨在成为一款环境感知智能 体，可放置在口袋或书桌上，通过多模态 AI 无缝融入用户日 常生活。相关标的：荣信文化(301231)、汤姆猫(300459) 2、低碳主题：近日召开的国常会审议通过《制造业绿色 低碳发展行动方案（2025—2027 年）》。会议指出，推进制 造业绿色低碳发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's laser optical components business showed strong performance in Q1, driven by increased market demand in the semiconductor sector and a significant rise in product shipments, resulting in a revenue of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.75% [3][4] - Following two acquisitions in 2024, the company is increasing its R&D investments in high-potential areas such as optical communication, consumer electronics, and semiconductor processes, although this has led to short-term pressure on profits due to rising employee compensation and fixed operating costs [3][6] - The company has a diverse product matrix in the automotive application sector, collaborating with global Tier 1 suppliers in areas like lidar and projection lighting, establishing itself as a qualified supplier for AG company [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 776 million, 980 million, and 1.289 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates of 0.19, 0.62, and 1.30 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 364, 110, and 53 times [6][9] - The company is focused on high-power semiconductor laser components and has diversified into optical communication, consumer electronics, semiconductor processes, automotive applications, and healthcare [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in phosphate rock (10.00%) and glyphosate (6.79%), while products like butadiene and aniline saw substantial declines [3][4]. - It suggests focusing on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities in the current market environment [5][21]. - The international oil prices are stabilizing, with WTI at $60.79 per barrel and Brent at $63.90 per barrel, indicating a projected average of $70 for 2025 [5][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - International oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with market assessments indicating a stable supply outlook [22]. - The domestic propane market experienced a decline after an initial stabilization, with average prices at 4988 CNY/ton [25]. - The domestic coal market showed mixed price movements, averaging 532 CNY/ton, with expectations of increased demand as summer approaches [26]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted in phosphate rock and glyphosate, while butadiene and aniline experienced notable declines [19]. - The report indicates a weak overall performance in the chemical industry, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in sectors benefiting from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings [21]. - It also highlights the resilience of the tire industry, suggesting companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire as potential investment targets [21]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality assets with strong dividend yields, particularly in the oil sector, including Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Significant transactions are driving the revaluation of innovative value in the pharmaceutical sector, with major deals such as a $60 billion transaction by 3SBio and a $50 billion forecasted deal by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [3] - The 2025 ASCO conference highlighted ADC, bispecific antibodies, and tri-specific antibodies as key areas of focus, with promising clinical results reported by Chinese companies [4] - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are leading breakthroughs in CAR-T technology, with significant advancements expected in 2025 [6] - The gout treatment market presents substantial potential, with a projected increase in patients in China from 170 million in 2020 to 240 million by 2030 [8] - The oral weight-loss drug market is seeing increased activity from leading companies, with notable collaborations and clinical advancements [10] - The approval of the world's first flu RNA polymerase PB2 protein inhibitor offers new treatment options for flu resistance [12] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.21% over the past week, with a weekly increase of 3.30% [28] - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.57%, with a monthly increase of 6.42% [31] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index currently has a PE (TTM) of 34.03, slightly above the five-year historical average of 32.54 [45] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The research team has published several in-depth reports on various segments of the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting growth trends and market opportunities [48] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policy changes include adjustments to tariffs on imported goods from the U.S. and guidelines for the construction and management of geriatric medicine departments [51] - Notable news includes the approval of multiple innovative drugs and clinical trials by various pharmaceutical companies [52][53]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - As of May 30, 2025, the total planned issuance of local government bonds in June is 86.12 billion yuan, with new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounting for 9% (7.42 billion yuan), 14% (11.64 billion yuan), 50% (43.4 billion yuan), and 21% (18.39 billion yuan) respectively [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Overall Planned Issuance - The total planned issuance of local government bonds in June is 86.12 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for half [1][2] 3.2 Regional Planned Issuance - The top regions in terms of planned local government bond issuance in June are Beijing (12.32 billion yuan), Zhejiang (9.58 billion yuan), Yunnan (6.88 billion yuan), Shandong (6.06 billion yuan), and Anhui (5.61 billion yuan) [2] 3.3 New Special Bond Planned Issuance - The top regions in terms of new special bond planned issuance in June are Zhejiang (8.66 billion yuan), Beijing (6.61 billion yuan), Fujian (4.57 billion yuan), Shandong (3.18 billion yuan), and Hubei (3 billion yuan) [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Significant transactions are driving the revaluation of innovation value in the pharmaceutical sector, with notable deals such as a $60 billion transaction by 3SBio and a $50 billion forecasted deal by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [3] - The 2025 ASCO conference highlighted ADC, bispecific antibodies, and tri-specific antibodies as key areas of focus, with promising clinical results reported by Chinese companies [4] - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are leading breakthroughs in CAR-T technology, with significant advancements expected in 2025 [6] - The gout treatment market presents substantial potential, with a projected increase in patients in China from 170 million in 2020 to 240 million by 2030 [8] - The oral weight loss drug market is seeing increased activity from leading companies, with notable collaborations and clinical advancements [10] - The approval of the world's first flu RNA polymerase PB2 protein inhibitor offers new treatment options for flu resistance [12] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.21% over the past week, with a weekly increase of 3.30% [28] - Over the past month, the industry also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.57%, with a monthly increase of 6.42% [31] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's current PE (TTM) is 34.03, slightly above the five-year historical average of 32.54 [45] 3. Recent Research Achievements - Recent reports highlight the steady growth of blood products and the acceleration of the import substitution process in inhalation preparations [48] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - The State Council announced a reduction in tariffs on imports from the U.S., which may impact the pharmaceutical sector [51] - Several innovative drugs have received approval for clinical trials and market entry, indicating a robust pipeline for the industry [52][53] 5. Recommended Companies and Earnings Forecast - Companies recommended for investment include Changchun High & New Technology, Yifan Biotech, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, among others, with a focus on areas such as gout treatment and CAR-T technology [14]