联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.31%，收于228 | | | | | 1元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价窄幅波动。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2167元/吨，较前一日涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2253元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日跌1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格继续走强。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2430元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月13日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增73手，共计3 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 8148手。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | ...

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 | SM2603 | 收于 | 5916，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 0.24%；硅铁主力合约 | SF2603 | 收于 | 5682，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 0.28%。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、美国总统特朗普威胁对与伊朗有商业往来的国家征收 | 25%的关税。外交部发言人毛宁 | | | | | | | | | 回应表示，中方将坚定维护自身正当合法权益。 | 2、华北某大型钢厂现已启动 | 2026 | 年 | 1 | 月硅锰招标，本次计划采购数量 | 17000 | 吨；环比 | | | | 增量 | 2300 | 吨。 | 硅铁、 | 3、1 | 月 | 13 | 日临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格暂稳，低硫主焦精煤 | A ...

联系方式：010-56711796 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice | | | | 黑色建材 铁矿 | 偏多 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿收跌。夜盘收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 年 1 月 5 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日，全球船厂共接获 33+8 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 26+8 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 7 艘新船订单。 2、国家发改委：将牵头制定循环经济发展"十五五"规划。 3、湖南 2026 年计划推进 31 个高速公路项目，总投资约 3350 亿元。 4、工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、有色、新材料、汽车、机 械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的 12 家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 极参与行业规则制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"。 【市场逻辑】 本 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 年 1 月 5 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日，全球船厂共接获 33+8 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 26+8 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 7 艘新船订单。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2、国家发改委：将牵头制定循环经济发展"十五五"规划。 3、湖南 2026 年计划推进 31 个高速公路项目，总投资约 3350 亿元。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 4、工信部召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，来自钢铁、有色、新材料、汽车、机 | | | | | 械、船舶、轻工、医药、电子等重点行业的 12 家企业负责人参会。会议强调，积 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of bond futures rose, and the bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders should continue to monitor the changes in the stock index. For trading - type investors, band operations are recommended [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.28%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, dipped in the morning and then rebounded, and fluctuated downward in the afternoon, closing down 1.18% from the previous trading day with a trading volume of 3.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 3.64 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open - market operations: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 342.4 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market rose. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.39%, up from 1.33% the previous day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.55%, up from 1.49% the previous day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year government bond fell 0.06 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year rose 0.01 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year fell 0.66 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 0.06 BP to 2.29% [1] - US data: The US consumer price index in December increased 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The core consumer price index increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; and increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1] Market Logic - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%. The service business activity index was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, indicating that China's overall inflation level remained moderate. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are recommended to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upward due to factors such as international crude oil price increases, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and the inflow of hot money. Palm oil is expected to continue to strengthen, but attention should be paid to the postponed implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy. Vegetable oil long positions should be held. [1][2] - Against the backdrop of abundant global soybean supply, double - meal trading should adopt an intraday approach, and a mid - line bottom - oscillation mindset should be maintained. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 13, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices rose, and the biodiesel concept resurfaced. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. Among them, the closing price of the main soybean oil contract Y2605 was 7986 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day; the closing price of the main palm oil contract P2605 was 8778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 was 9017 yuan/ton, up 0.41% day - on - day. [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. [1] - Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending regulation depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil. It is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with a monthly volume of 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil. [1] - In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1.3165 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3.05 million tons, within the market's expected range. [1] - From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons. [1] - Indonesia's total biodiesel allocation in 2026 is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. [1] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76%. [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the tense situation between the US and Iran has led to supply concerns and geopolitical conflicts, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise, which has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, the fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed. During the Spring Festival stocking period, soybean oil inventory has decreased, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The full sale of domestic old soybean auctions indicates sufficient future supply, while the customs' tightened soybean clearance policy continues. For palm oil, the expected negative overseas reports have been released, and the market is more influenced by the rise in international crude oil prices and the biodiesel concept. For rapeseed oil, the strong prices of soybean and palm oil have driven up its price. [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [2] - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference. [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 13, the US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report was bearish, causing US soybeans to close lower and dragging down the domestic double - meal market to oscillate weakly. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract M2605 was 2761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% day - on - day. [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3630 - 3790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton. [2] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, rising crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Global soybean production is expected to reach 425.7 million tons. [2][3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons. [3] - As of January 9, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year. [3] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth of sown soybeans was in good condition. [3] - Brazil's soybean exports in December were 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase compared to the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 1.12 billion tons. [3] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons compared to the previous week. [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, under the pressure of abundant global soybean supply, US soybeans are under pressure and testing the support at 1000 US dollars. Domestically, the spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking intention has increased, driving up the price of finished feed. The USDA report's simultaneous increase in US soybean inventory and Brazilian production, along with the year - on - year increase in global rapeseed and rapeseed meal production, jointly suppress the market. [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Mid - line trading: Maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset and conduct intraday trading. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [4] - Arbitrage trading: There are currently no arbitrage strategies. [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1191.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 3.8%；焦炭主力合 J2605 收 于 1，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.41%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1202.0，环比日 | | | | | 盘收盘上涨 0.92%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1740. ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.44%报 4594.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.08%报 86.86 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金上涨 0.14%报 1031.0 元/克，沪银上涨 4.14%报 21943.0 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 1 月 13 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.43 吨， 当前持仓量为 1074.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 26.79 吨，当前持仓量为 16321.16 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 2.8%，维持利率不 | | | | | 变的概率为 97.2%。到 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 26.8%，维持利率不变的概 率为 72.5%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.7 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二瓶片主力价格上涨 | 96 | 元至 | 6176 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6100 | 元/吨（-10）， | 华南瓶片价格 | 6150 | 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 2077 | 手至 | 6.42 | 万手， | | | | 空头持仓减少 | 1768 | 手至 | 6.66 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | 33.47 | 万吨，环比-0.06 | 万吨。 | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 | 72.27%，环比-1.01；聚酯瓶片生产成本 | 5592 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical sector is bullish [2] Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are ongoing, with crude oil prices rebounding significantly overnight. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side saw improved operations. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate in a wide range with a bullish trend. The reference range for the 03 contract is 5480 - 5750 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction prices in the US dollar pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 rose by 123 yuan to 5679 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5455 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 50), and the spot price in Shandong was 5325 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 10). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 1325 to 20,300 hands, and the number of short positions increased by 698 to 25,500 hands [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%; compared to the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pick - ups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in the monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation. Yesterday in Shandong, about 2,000 tons were counted, with a low end of 5300 and a high end of 5345 [2] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month and increased by 5.93% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [2] - Oil Price: The instability in Iran has not been completely eliminated, and the potential supply risks continue, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.65 US dollars/barrel to 61.15 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 2.77%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.60 US dollars/barrel to 65.47 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 2.51%. China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.6 to 439.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 12.2 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night [2] - Geopolitical Event: Trump ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Iran, stating that "all meetings with Iranian officials have been cancelled." His tougher stance on Iran has increased market concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's fourth - largest oil - producing country and possible US intervention, causing oil prices to climb to a two - month high [2] Market Logic - The price of pure benzene will fluctuate in a wide range with a bullish trend in the short term. Future focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction prices in the US dollar pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish approach [2]