Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1196.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.46%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1738.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.37%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1193.5， 环比日盘收盘下跌 0.25%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1750.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.66%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 1、财政部会同有关部门召开会议，布置推进财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策工作。会 议要求各级财政部门要会同相关部门和经办机构完整准确把握财政金融协同促内需一 揽子政策要求，简化流程环节，强化执行跟踪，切实推动政策落地见效。 2、美国白宫宣布，从 1 月 15 日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征 25% 的进口从价关税。 | | | 焦炭 | | 3、本周，Mysteel 统计 31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached a record high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night session, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, and domestic new car sales accounted for over 50%. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million, and new energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - In December 2025, China exported 536 ships; from January to December, the cumulative export was 6,690 ships, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [1] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles; from January to December, the cumulative export was 8.324 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.0% [1] - From 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, an increase of 26%. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [1] Market Logic - In 2025, automobile production and sales reached a new high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, it is volatile. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数大致平开，早盘多窄幅波动，午后受消息影响，股 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 指回落，期债有所上涨，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.0 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.26%，收于228 | | | | | 2元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2168元/吨，较前一日涨1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2255元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价 | | | | | 2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2430元/吨，较前一日涨持平 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月14日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增614手，共计3 | | | | | 8762手。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 4、1月14日，中储粮公司举行玉米竞价销售交易，计划销售玉米量6.6万吨，成交 | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5299 元/吨，日涨幅 0.88%，夜盘收 5280 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5304 元/吨，日涨幅 0.72%，夜盘收 5291 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1 广西白糖现货成交价为 5320 元/吨，上涨 16 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | | | | | 5320~5380 元/吨，部分上调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5190~5240 元/吨，上 | | | | | 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、瑞银全球金融市场部表示，国际投资者正加速配置中国资产，过去一年中，瑞 银长期追踪的全球前 40 大国际投资机构对中国的持仓占比创下 2023 年以来的新 | | | | | 高，主动型海外基金已开始重新加仓中国资产。 | | | | | 2、12 月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源 | | | | | 价格后，去年 12 月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨 2.6%。交易员们进一步增加了对 | | | | | 美联储降息的押注，4 月降息的概率升至 42%。 | | | | | 3、美国国务院要求美国公民立即离开伊朗。与此同时，美国国防部披萨指数再度 | | | | | 狂飙。其中，达美乐披萨订单激增 1000%。该指数飙升通常意味着美国国防部有重 | | | | | 大行动。美军在中东的最新行动亦被以 ...

| 宏观经济 | | --- | 宏观经济 2026年1月14日 中国12月出口再超预期 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2026年1月14日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 摘要 中国12月以美元计价出口金额同比增长6.6%，预估为增 长2.2%，前值同比增长5.9%；进口同比增长5.7%，预估为同 比下降0.3%，前值同比增长1.9%。中国2025年全年出口金额 同比增长5.5%，去年增长5.8%；2025年进口金额同比持平，2 024年同比增长1.0%。 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月份中国出口东盟同比增长11.2%，全年13.4%，2024 年12%。12月中国出口欧盟同比增长11.6%，全年8.4%，2024 年3.0%。12月中国出口美国同比下降30.0%，2025年同比下降 20.0%，2024年4.9%。2025年中国对共建一带一路国家出口金 额同比增长10.6%，出口非 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - With the escalation of the situation in Iran, the short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly, but it is greatly affected by the news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The overall export volume of fuel oil is not significantly affected by the attacks on Russian energy facilities. The pattern of sanctions on Russian oil products is expected to remain in the short term, and there is no specific plan for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [4]. - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. Around March, when the existing raw material stocks of domestic asphalt refineries are exhausted, fuel oil is expected to fill a certain supply gap [4]. - The fuel oil shipment volume in Iran has shown a downward trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume in January is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is worrying, which may affect the global fuel oil supply - demand balance [4]. 3) Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - US President Trump said that a 25% tariff will be imposed on the goods of countries doing business with Iran, and the US and France have notified their citizens to leave Iran. Trump also threatened to take "very tough action" if Iran executes anti - government protesters [3]. Market Situation - The short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly due to the situation in Iran, and the market is affected by news and may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The attack on Russian energy facilities has little impact on the overall export volume of fuel oil. The sanctions on Russian oil products are expected to remain in the short term, and there is no clear cease - fire plan between Russia and Ukraine [4]. Fuel Oil Fundamentals - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors with no prominent contradiction. Around March, fuel oil may fill the supply gap when domestic asphalt refineries exhaust their raw material stocks [4]. - Iranian fuel oil shipments are decreasing. The January high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is at risk, which may affect the global supply - demand balance [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have stabilized, and the USDA monthly report supports the operation of US cotton futures prices. The main 03 contract settled at 64.88 cents, up 0.05%. There is obvious support for the downside of Zhengzhou cotton. The decline in cotton planting area and the expectation of tight balance continue to dominate the market trend. The expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton stimulates the import of foreign cotton and yarn to ease the supply shortage, but the overall bullish thinking remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.88, down 3 points; 5 - month at 66.41, down 3 points; 7 - month at 67.86, unchanged; trading volume was about 58,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 710,353, and the open interest was 1,201,677. The settlement prices were 14,850 for January, 14,765 for May, and 14,920 for September [2] Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2] - As of January 10, the net signed export of Egyptian cotton was 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). The new contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average transaction price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2] - Recently, the weather in Pakistan's cotton - growing areas has been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1085,000 - 1,124,000 tons. The transaction price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 - 8,200 rupees/40 kilograms depending on quality [2] - According to the USDA's January US cotton supply - demand forecast report, in 2025/26, the US cotton planting area is 5.6345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. The harvest area increased to 4.7376 million mu, an increase of 264,700 mu. The yield per unit area is expected to be 64 kg/mu, a decrease of 5.5 kg/mu. The production is expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The consumption is expected to be 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9%. The export volume is expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2] Trading Strategy - Build long positions below 14,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and take profit at 15,000 yuan/ton [2]

联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.31%，收于228 | | | | | 1元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价窄幅波动。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2167元/吨，较前一日涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2253元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日跌1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格继续走强。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2430元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月13日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增73手，共计3 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 8148手。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | ...