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国信证券晨会纪要-20251222
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-22 00:56
Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates a moderate slowdown in domestic economic growth, with November GDP growth estimated at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, suggesting a low probability of significant rebound in December [9][10] - The service sector is identified as the main drag on economic growth, with a notable decline in the production index, particularly in traditional industries like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors show resilience [10] - The shift in policy focus from growth preservation to structural adjustment is highlighted, indicating a transition towards high-quality development [10] Fixed Income - The fixed income market is experiencing seasonal increases in cross-year funding demand, with expectations of rising market interest rates in December [11] - The report notes a slight fluctuation in interbank and exchange repo rates, with a forecasted increase in excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December [11] - The convertible bond market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in the average price and a decrease in the average premium rate [13][14] Industry and Company Insights - The internet securities industry is transitioning from a traditional service model to a customer-centric ecosystem, which is expected to drive innovation and growth [15][17] - The insurance asset-liability management framework is moving towards a more comprehensive regulatory system, emphasizing long-term value and risk prevention [18][19] - The food and beverage sector is projected to benefit from cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with a focus on innovation and recovery opportunities [26][28] - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is witnessing significant developments, particularly with the first large-scale green methanol project in China, indicating a market potential exceeding 10 billion annually [30][31] - Nike's performance shows regional disparities, with North America recovering faster than the Greater China region, which faces significant pressure due to competitive pricing and brand positioning challenges [32][33] - Wanhua Chemical is experiencing a rebound in MDI product prices, driven by production cuts and increased demand from the US housing market due to interest rate cuts [34][36]
公募REITs周报(第47期):指数承压下行,各板块普跌-20251221
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 14:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 3.1% throughout the week. After the departure of irrational premium and speculative funds in the early stage, the year - to - date return of the China Securities REITs Index turned negative (-2.1%). As emotional pricing fades, prices are gradually anchored to the cash flow and distribution ability of underlying assets, significantly enhancing the safety margin. From the comparison of weekly returns of major indices, CSI Convertible Bond Index > CSI Aggregate Bond Index > CSI 300 Index > China Securities REITs Index. As of December 19, 2025, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs is 80BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield is 367BP [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 773.15 points, with a weekly decline of 3.1% from December 15 - 19, 2025, performing worse than the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+0.5%), the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.1%), and the CSI 300 Index (-0.3%). Year - to - date, the performance order of major indices is: CSI Convertible Bond Index (+17.1%) > CSI 300 Index (+16.1%) > CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.6%) > China Securities REITs Index (-2.1%). In the past year, the return of the China Securities REITs Index was -0.7%, with a volatility of 7.5%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index, the CSI Convertible Bond Index, and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover**: On December 19, the total market capitalization of REITs was 214.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.39%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous week [2][9]. - **Performance by Type**: From the perspective of different project attributes, the average weekly returns of equity - type REITs and concession - type REITs were -2.1% and -4.0% respectively. All types of REITs closed down, with transportation, water conservancy facilities, and municipal facilities REITs experiencing the largest declines. The two REITs with the largest weekly increases were Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT (+1.34%) and Boshi Jinkai Industrial Park REIT (+0.08%), while the rest of the REITs declined this week [3][13][15]. - **Trading Activity**: Among different project types, water conservancy facilities REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.9%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume proportion this week, accounting for 25.9% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (7.45 million yuan), Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT (6.71 million yuan), and China Merchants Expressway REIT (4.22 million yuan) [3][18][19]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance - From the beginning of the year to December 19, 2025, there were 2 REITs products in the accepted stage, 3 in the declared stage, 2 in the inquired stage, 5 in the feedback stage, 6 products that had passed and were waiting for listing, and 15 newly - listed first - issue products on the exchange [22]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Indicators**: REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. As of December 19, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.20%. From the equity perspective, relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. Different project types have different valuation levels. For example, the relative net value premium rate of affordable rental housing REITs is 40.7%, and the P/FFO is 36.3 [24][26]. - **Comparison with Benchmarks**: As of December 19, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 20BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 367BP [28]. 3.4 Industry News - On December 19, China Three Gorges New Energy (Group) Co., Ltd. officially applied for the "Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT", with the underlying asset being the Dalian Zhuanghe Offshore Wind Power Project. The project has been fully connected to the grid in 2020, and the relevant issuance proposal has been reviewed and approved by the board of directors. The company and its affiliated parties plan to subscribe for 44% of the fund shares in total. - On December 19, the "Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT" initiated by foreign - funded enterprise Ambo was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The underlying assets of this product are three high - quality logistics and warehousing projects in the core area of the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. During the issuance stage, the offline inquiry multiple of this fund reached 235.8 times, and various investors highly recognized the investment value of the project [4][34].
ETF周报:A500ETF净申购超300亿元,上周新成立三只科创创业人工智能ETF-20251221
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 14:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from December 15 to December 19, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -0.26%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of SSE 50 ETF was 0.67%, the highest. By sector, the median return of large financial ETFs was 1.22%, the highest. By theme, the median return of military ETFs was 2.56%, the highest [1][13][18]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 55.447 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 38.992 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, A500 ETF had the largest net subscription, reaching 32.639 billion yuan. By sector, technology ETFs had the largest net subscription, amounting to 6.382 billion yuan. By hot theme, chip ETFs had the largest net subscription, reaching 3.050 billion yuan [2][27][33]. - As of last Friday, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext - related ETFs among broad - based ETFs were relatively low. By sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively moderate. By sub - theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 and consumer ETFs increased significantly [3][34][44]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.443 billion yuan in the previous week to 47.714 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.582 billion shares in the previous week to 2.481 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin purchases and short - selling volumes, securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had relatively high average daily margin purchases, while CSI 1000 ETF and SSE 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][45][53]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and HuaTai - Berry ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, 5 ETFs, including Huaxia CSI All - Share Food ETF, Huabao CSI All - Share Electric Power Utility ETF, ICBC ChiNext New Energy ETF, E Fund SSE STAR Market Chip Design Theme ETF, and E Fund CSI All - Share Food ETF, will be issued [5][57][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - **Equity ETFs**: The median weekly return was -0.26%. The median returns of SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 300, A500, CSI 1000, ChiNext - related, and STAR Market ETFs were 0.67%, 0.03%, -0.13%, -0.14%, -0.53%, -2.25%, and -2.43% respectively. The median returns of commodity, bond, money - market, and cross - border ETFs were 0.98%, 0.05%, 0.02%, and -1.76% respectively [13]. - **By Sector**: The median returns of large financial, consumer, cyclical, and technology sector ETFs were 1.22%, 0.38%, -0.52%, and -2.31% respectively [18]. - **By Theme**: The median returns of military, bank, and securities ETFs were 2.56%, 1.23%, and 1.07% respectively, showing relatively strong performance. The median returns of chip, photovoltaic, and AI ETFs were -3.24%, -2.91%, and -2.45% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [18]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - **Overall Scale**: As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3,683.2 billion yuan, 965.0 billion yuan, and 743.0 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money - market ETFs were relatively small, at 246.8 billion yuan and 186.2 billion yuan respectively [20]. - **Broad - based ETFs**: The scales of CSI 300 and A500 ETFs were relatively large, at 1,176.9 billion yuan and 243.0 billion yuan respectively. The scales of STAR Market, SSE 50, CSI 500, ChiNext - related, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 207.8 billion yuan, 184.6 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, 174.3 billion yuan, and 170.3 billion yuan respectively [20]. - **By Sector**: As of last Friday, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 418.5 billion yuan, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 210.3 billion yuan. The scales of large financial and consumer ETFs were relatively small, at 197.1 billion yuan and 186.7 billion yuan respectively [25]. - **By Theme**: As of last Friday, the scales of chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs were the highest, at 147.5 billion yuan, 139.2 billion yuan, and 101.7 billion yuan respectively [25]. - **Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions**: Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 55.447 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 38.992 billion yuan. Money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 1.662 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 1.645 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, A500 ETF had the largest net subscription of 32.639 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 32.528 billion yuan. SSE 50 ETF had the largest net redemption of 461 million yuan, and its scale increased by 560 million yuan [27]. By sector, technology ETFs had the largest net subscription of 6.382 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 3.386 billion yuan. Cyclical ETFs had the largest net redemption of 3.207 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 1.987 billion yuan. By hot theme, chip ETFs had the largest net subscription of 3.050 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 2.222 billion yuan. Military ETFs had the largest net redemption of 4.229 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 3.058 billion yuan [31][33]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - **Broad - based ETFs**: As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext - related, and A500 ETFs were at the 82.44%, 82.44%, 95.22%, 93.82%, 59.52%, and 90.79% quantiles respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 60.72%, 68.43%, 96.70%, 48.23%, 59.03%, and 89.70% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of STAR Market - related ETFs were at the 81.37% and 70.82% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 ETF increased significantly [34][36]. - **By Sector**: As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 73.54%, 32.15%, 25.89%, and 92.75% quantiles respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 69.08%, 56.31%, 36.19%, and 79.39% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer ETFs increased significantly [38]. - **By Theme**: As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of photovoltaic, military, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 99.59%, 99.01%, and 96.04% respectively. The price - to - book quantiles of AI, dividend, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 99.75%, 96.13%, and 92.50% respectively. Overall, among broad - based ETFs, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext - related ETFs were relatively low. By sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively moderate. By sub - theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs were relatively low [40][41][44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short - Selling - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has generally maintained an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.443 billion yuan in the previous week to 47.714 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.582 billion shares in the previous week to 2.481 billion shares [45]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin purchases from Monday to Thursday last week, securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had relatively high average daily margin purchases. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volumes, CSI 1000 ETF and SSE 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [48][50][53]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale - based index ETFs, theme - based, style - based, and strategy - based index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale - based index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. HuaTai - Berry ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale - based index ETFs and theme - based, style - based, and strategy - based index ETFs [54]. - Last week, 7 new ETFs were established. This week, 5 ETFs, including Huaxia CSI All - Share Food ETF, Huabao CSI All - Share Electric Power Utility ETF, ICBC ChiNext New Energy ETF, E Fund SSE STAR Market Chip Design Theme ETF, and E Fund CSI All - Share Food ETF, will be issued [57].
农产品研究跟踪系列报告(187):行业产能维持去化,看好肉奶周期共振反转
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 14:12
证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告(187) 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化,看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋:在产父母代存栏维持增长,中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日,鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤,周环比-0.65%,同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪:牛价有望持续上涨,反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪:行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤,周环比+2.03%;7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头,周环比-0.43%。 白鸡:供给小幅增加,关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日,鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽,周环比-0.30%;毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤,周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡:供给维持底部,有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 , 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛:新一轮牛价上涨开启,看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日,国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg,环比+0.79 ...
《保险公司资产负债管理办法(征求意见稿)》点评:匹配为基,风险导向
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 13:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The release of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" marks a transition from a "temporary measure" to a "comprehensive regulation" phase in China's insurance industry, aiming to integrate previously fragmented regulatory requirements into a more rigid and long-term value-oriented framework [2][10] - The new measures are expected to drive the insurance industry from scale-driven growth to high-quality development, focusing on risk prevention and sustainable growth, which will significantly impact industry competition, business models, and valuation logic [2][10] - The core of asset-liability management is to establish a robust long-term system that can withstand economic and interest rate cycles, with leading companies aiming to exceed compliance requirements to support strategic implementation and achieve high-quality development [8] Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The new measures establish a clear and comprehensive management system with defined responsibilities and indicators, requiring insurance companies to create an organizational structure that emphasizes accountability and independent asset-liability management departments [3] - The measures embed management requirements into the entire business cycle, enhancing asset-liability linkage in product development, pricing, and asset allocation, and shifting risk management from reactive to proactive [3] Regulatory Indicators and Thresholds - Compared to previous temporary measures, the new regulations introduce specific regulatory indicators and thresholds, including effective duration gap, comprehensive investment income coverage ratio, net investment income coverage ratio, and liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios [4] - These indicators will provide a standardized benchmark for regulatory evaluation, quantifying insurance companies' capabilities in duration matching, income realization, and liquidity reserves [4] Industry Impact - The implementation of the new measures is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, posing varied challenges to different types of entities. Leading insurance companies with established asset-liability management systems will face lower implementation costs, while smaller companies may need to undergo significant changes in product structure and investment strategies [6] - The new regulations coincide with the upcoming full implementation of new accounting standards in 2026, which will enhance the sensitivity of financial statements to interest rate fluctuations, reinforcing the need for effective interest rate risk management [7] Practical Implementation - Leading insurance companies are adopting a systematic framework for asset-liability management that adheres to principles of safety, profitability, and liquidity, ensuring effective communication between asset and liability sides from the product development stage [8][9] - A "dumbbell" investment strategy is being employed, balancing long-duration fixed income assets with equity and alternative investments, supported by a long-term assessment mechanism and proactive ecological layout [9]
转债市场周报:弱资质及临期个券出现扰动-20251221
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 13:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, A-shares were volatile and stabilized, with reduced market volume. Policies on stimulating domestic demand and the upcoming full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port boosted the large - consumption sector. The medical and commercial sectors performed well, while the previously rising TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The bond market first declined and then rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.48% for the week, the median price up 0.81%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate down 0.36% compared with the previous week [1][2][9] - In the coming week, the small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds, and absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [3][18] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Focus Last Week (December 15 - December 19, 2025) Stock Market - A - shares were volatile and stabilized with reduced volume. Policies and the Hainan event boosted the consumption sector, and the medical and commercial sectors performed well due to the flu and AI. The TMT and new energy sectors lagged. The market showed daily fluctuations in indices and sector performances. Most of the Shenwan primary industries rose, with the top - gainers being commerce and retail (6.66%), non - bank finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%), while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery (-1.56%), and comprehensive (-1.53%) underperformed [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market first declined and then rose. Despite weak economic data and equity market adjustments at the beginning of the week, bond market sentiment was poor. The central bank's 1000 - billion - yuan 14 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday stabilized capital expectations, and bond market sentiment recovered in the second half of the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, down 0.88bp from the previous week [1][9] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 0.48% for the week, the median price was up 0.81%, the calculated arithmetic average parity was up 0.73% for the week, and the market conversion premium rate was down 0.36% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the parity ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) increased by 4.71%, 0.84%, and 0.85% respectively, reaching the 100%, 98%, and 94% percentile values since 2023. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with commerce and retail (+5.34%), light industry manufacturing (+4.73%), steel (+2.13%), and beauty and care (+1.95%) leading, while non - bank finance (-4.26%), communication (-0.50%), coal (-0.39%), and household appliances (-0.31%) lagged. The top - gainers among individual issues were Jiamei, Huati, Zai 22, Huicheng, and Huayi convertible bonds, and the top - losers were Nenghui, Borui, Furong, Jingda, and Weidao convertible bonds. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3073.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 614.64 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [2][9][12] Views and Strategies (December 22 - December 26, 2025) - Small - and micro - cap stocks performed well last week, and convertible bonds rose slightly following the underlying stocks. The median price rose to 132 yuan, and the premium rates of convertible bonds in most parity ranges increased. However, convertible bond ETFs have faced outflow pressure for 4 consecutive weeks, showing a "passive to active" structural feature. Some low - price convertible bonds and large - cap, high - rating, near - maturity convertible bonds such as Huaan, Guotou, and Nenghua adjusted significantly, reflecting market concerns about the credit of low - quality issues and the conversion ability of near - maturity issues [3][18] - Recently, the willingness of several convertible bond issuers to promote conversion has significantly increased. Under the expectation of the spring rally, the parity of convertible bonds is expected to further rise. The number of issues actually facing maturity repayment is relatively limited, and some issues with longer remaining terms still have high conversion opportunities. If there are significant adjustments, investors can buy at low prices [3][18] - Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market is still at a historical high, and it is difficult to find overall opportunities. Relative - return investors are recommended to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - callable and suitable - premium equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders in sectors such as two - wheeled vehicles, cosmetics, and breeding with historically low valuations [3][18] Valuation Overview - As of December 19, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in the parity ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 43.38%, 39.68%, 28.72%, 20.96%, 12.59%, and 13.84% respectively, at the 90%/82%, 98%/100%, 95%/97%, 93%/94%, 80%/70%, and 98%/98% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of issues with a parity below 70 yuan was -3.99%, at the 2%/5% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.18%, at the 90%/96% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 3.03%, at the 86%/87% percentile values since 2010/2021 [19] Primary - Market Tracking - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances or listings. As of December 19, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances in the coming week (December 22 - December 26, 2025), but Puxian Convertible Bond will be listed. Puxian Convertible Bond has an issue size of 243 million yuan, a credit rating of A+, and is scheduled to be listed on December 22. The underlying stock is Puxian Software, with a market value of 4.663 billion yuan as of December 19. The company focuses on management software development in the energy industry. In 2024, its revenue was 836 million yuan (+11.6% year - on - year), and the net profit was 121 million yuan (+95.06% year - on - year). From Q1 - Q3 2025, the revenue was 300 million yuan (+2.17% year - on - year), and the net profit was 100,000 yuan (-90.07% year - on - year) [27] - Last week, the exchanges approved the registration of 2 companies (Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology), the listing committees passed the applications of 3 companies (Zhanggao Electric, Doctor Glasses, and Haitian Co., Ltd.), the exchanges accepted the applications of 2 companies (Ruihu Mould and Nanxin Technology), the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposal of 1 company (Zuoli Pharmaceutical), and the board of directors proposed the issuance of 1 company (Tianshan Electronics). As of now, there are 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.9 billion yuan, including 5 issues with a total scale of 5.9 billion yuan that have been approved for registration and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan that have passed the listing committee [28]
私募EB每周跟踪(20251215-20251219):可交换私募债跟踪-20251221
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 13:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report regularly sorts out the latest information on private exchangeable bond (private EB) projects from public channels and tracks the basic elements of private exchangeable bond projects. It should be noted that the issuance terms and processes of private placements may be subject to change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. For the issuance progress, inquiries should be made with the relevant lead underwriters [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content New Projects This Week - The project of Nanshan Group Co., Ltd. to issue privately - placed exchangeable corporate bonds to professional investors in 2025 has been accepted by the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 3 billion yuan, the underlying stock is Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (600219.SH), the lead underwriter is Jinyuan United Securities, and the exchange update date is December 17, 2025 [1]. Project Status Table - Multiple private exchangeable bond projects have different statuses. For example, the projects of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co., Ltd., Sichuan Jiuzhou Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., etc., have passed; the projects of Fuda Holding Group Co., Ltd., Shanxi Transportation Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd., etc., are in the "feedback received" status; and the project of Nanshan Group Co., Ltd. is in the "accepted" status. The table also shows the lead underwriters, scales, underlying stocks, and update dates of these projects [2].
纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十八:耐克各区域复苏进程分化,北美增速领先大中华区持续承压
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 11:13
行业研究·行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师: 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980520040004 证券分析师: 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980523070003 事项: 公司公告:2025年12月18日,耐克披露截至2025年11月30日的2026财年第二季度业绩:公司实现收入124 亿美元,同比+1%,不变汇率口径0%。 国信纺服观点:1)业绩和指引核心观点:FY2026Q2 业绩略好于管理层此前指引和彭博一致预期、各区 域和渠道恢复速度有差异、大中华区压力较大,Q3 指引不及彭博一致预期,管理层表示公司处于恢复 的中期阶段;2)FY2026Q2 业绩:收入整体好于管理层指引及彭博一致预期,北美地区及批发渠道引领 增长,鞋类收入降幅收窄、跑鞋引领增长、经典鞋款拖累,中国市场和 Converse 品牌持续承压,毛利 率下降幅度与管理层指引一致;3)分地区:北美表现强劲,大中华区压力显著,各地区批发渠道增长 普遍优于直营,北美、大中华区、亚太拉 ...
东方电缆(603606):突破亚洲国际海底电缆大单,构筑全球产业竞争力
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-21 09:15
证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 东方电缆(603606.SH) 突破亚洲国际海底电缆大单,构筑全球产业竞争力 公司研究·公司快评 电力设备·电网设备 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师: 王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980520080003 证券分析师: 王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980523050002 事项: 公司公告:公司及全资子公司东方海工院近期中标多个项目,包括亚洲区域海洋能源互联超高压海缆及施 工敷设 EPCI 总包项目 19 亿元,海上风电项目的工程施工、运维抢修以及脐带缆等项目 1.08 亿元等,中 标金额合计约 31.25 亿元,占公司 2024 年营业收入的 34.37%。 国信电新观点:1)公司坚持"海陆并进",统筹推进国际、国内两大市场,重大项目的中标将为公司"十 五五"业绩增长提供夯实的基础。2)项目带来的技术沉淀与市场拓展效应,将进一步助力构建国内外市 场协同发展的良好格局,进一步提升公司的核心竞争力、市场影响力和品牌影响 ...