- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis. It primarily focuses on market reviews, fund performance, and fund issuance dynamics[1][2][3]. - The report highlights the performance of quantitative public funds, including index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds. For the past week, the median excess return of index-enhanced funds was 0.06%, while the median return of quantitative hedging funds was 0.17%. Year-to-date, the median excess return of index-enhanced funds was 3.42%, and the median return of quantitative hedging funds was 0.58%[37][39][56]. - The report provides a ranking of the top-performing index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds. For index-enhanced funds, the highest weekly excess return was 1.41%, and the highest year-to-date excess return was 18.15%. For quantitative hedging funds, the highest weekly return was 0.86%, and the highest year-to-date return was 6.50%[56][57][60].

Group 1: Market Overview - The communication sector outperformed the market in July 2025, with the communication index rising by 6.87% compared to a 4.85% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [1][14]. - Key performers in the sector included optical devices, optical modules, IDC, and optical fiber cables, with notable stock increases from companies like Shijia Photon (46.23%), Chunz中科技 (42.16%), and NewEase (40.42%) [1][24]. Group 2: Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q2 2025, the total market value of funds heavily invested in the communication sector reached 122.5 billion yuan, accounting for 3.98% of the total fund holdings, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 percentage points [1][30]. - The concentration of holdings in the top ten communication stocks increased, with these stocks representing 89% of the total market value in the communication sector [1][33]. Group 3: Global Computing Power Trends - The demand for computing power continues to rise, driven by significant capital expenditures from North American cloud providers, with OpenAI and Oracle collaborating on a 4.5GW data center project [2][40]. - NVIDIA's GB300 and CPO switches have officially launched, benefiting the computing power supply chain, while major optical module companies like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang are forecasting substantial growth in H1 2025 [2][50]. Group 4: Domestic AI Development - The approval of high-end chips like NVIDIA's H20 for export to China is expected to alleviate chip shortages, while domestic AI infrastructure is rapidly evolving, with major players like Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud leading the market [3][44]. - The domestic AI IaaS market is experiencing significant growth, with increased demand for computing power from telecom operators and the introduction of new open-source models by Alibaba [3][44]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on optical devices and modules, as well as companies involved in copper connectivity, due to the sustained high demand for computing power infrastructure [4][5]. - Long-term investments in the three major telecom operators are suggested, as they maintain stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, secondary bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds reduced their convertible bond allocation, while first - level bond funds were the main force for increasing convertible bond holdings. The convertible bond market scale decreased significantly by 43 billion yuan, and the overall convertible bond holdings of public funds decreased by 5.4 billion yuan to 282.2 billion yuan [1][13]. - The convertible bond funds led the active funds in performance in Q2 2025, with a median net value growth of 3.52% for 41 (pan) convertible bond funds, but the overall scale declined [2]. - Among the high - performing products, 85 out of 87 funds with a convertible bond proportion of over 40% in the fund's total assets and a total asset value of over 100 million yuan achieved positive returns. The median net value growth rate in Q2 was 3.03%, and as of July 24, it was 7.24% [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Scale and Fund Type Distribution - In Q2 2025, the total asset scale of public funds reached 37.3 trillion yuan (excluding QDII and REITs), with the number reaching 12,576. The scale and number increased significantly compared to the previous quarter. The scale of pan - fixed - income + funds increased, and the total asset value of convertible bond funds slightly increased from 56.338 billion yuan at the end of last year to 56.636 billion yuan, but decreased compared to the end of Q1 [12]. - The total asset values of first - level/second - level bond funds/partial - debt hybrid funds changed from 883.6 billion yuan/793.7 billion yuan/288.7 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 1004.1 billion yuan/940.3 billion yuan/283.8 billion yuan respectively. The number of funds with a decreased convertible bond position was more than those with an increased position in Q2 2025, and the ratio of adding - position funds to reducing - position funds was 0.9 [12][14]. - The number of funds with a convertible bond position of over 5% decreased significantly. By fund type, first - level bond funds, second - level bond funds, convertible bond - type funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds were the main forces for convertible bond allocation. The average convertible bond position of convertible bond funds increased to 78.84% [17][21]. - More first - level bond funds started to allocate convertible bonds in Q2 2025. The scale of short - term pure bond funds, first - level bond funds, and second - level bond funds expanded significantly, and the proportion of first - level bond funds with convertible bond holdings in the total scale of first - level bond funds rose to 57.8%, the highest since 2023 [26]. 3.2 Public Fund Convertible Bond Individual Bond Allocation Situation Sorting - In Q2 2025, public funds increased their holdings of high - price and balanced convertible bonds and reduced their holdings of partial - equity, partial - debt, and bank convertible bonds. At the individual bond level, funds increased their positions in convertible bonds related to computing power, military industry, medicine, and pig farming, and significantly reduced their positions in photovoltaic and mechanical convertible bonds [28][30]. - The sharp decline in the scale of bank convertible bonds led to a switch in the market's bottom - position allocation. Most financial convertible bonds were added to positions. Some low - price varieties in sectors such as environmental protection, public utilities, steel, and transportation were increased in holdings, while high - dividend targets that were favored in Q1 2025 saw a decrease in the number of times they entered the top 10 heavy - position holdings [31]. - Convertible bonds related to the military industry and computing power were generally added to positions. Most pharmaceutical convertible bonds were increased in holdings due to the recovery of the pharmaceutical industry's prosperity. The performance of automobile industry convertible bonds was divided, with some decreasing and some increasing in the number of times they entered the top 10 heavy - position holdings [34][35][37]. - In the resource sector, copper - processing - related convertible bonds were reduced, while some others were added. In the chemical sector, large - cap low - price varieties were significantly increased in positions, and the performance of other convertible bonds was relatively divided. In the consumption sector, most home appliance convertible bonds were reduced, light industry and textile and apparel convertible bonds increased in the number of times they entered the top 10 heavy - position holdings, and the performance of food and beverage convertible bonds was divided [38][40]. 3.3 Statistics on the Returns of Various Funds in Q2 2025 - Convertible bond funds led the active funds in performance in Q2 2025. The average returns of first - level bond funds, second - level bond funds, partial - equity hybrid funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds in Q2 2025/nearly one year were +1.19%/1.85%, +1.39%/2.90%, +2.94%/12.71%, 1.29%/3.23%, and 2.39%/9.11% respectively [41]. - The convertible bond funds performed well, but the overall scale declined. The median return of 41 convertible bond funds in Q2 was +3.52%, and the return of convertible bond ETFs was 3.6%. The median return of these 41 products in nearly one year was 20.1%. The scale of convertible bond ETFs slightly decreased to 36.924 billion yuan in Q2 but rose to 41.518 billion yuan as of July 24 [43]. - Among the funds with a convertible bond proportion of over 40% in the fund's total assets and a total asset value of over 100 million yuan, 85 out of 87 achieved positive returns. The median net value growth rate in Q2 was 3.03%, and as of July 24, it was 7.24%. The top - performing A fund had strong bond - selection ability, maintained a high position, and outperformed the index in the upward phase of the equity market. The second - ranked B fund allocated to securities + growth, with a decreasing convertible bond position and strong historical net value stability [3][52][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Affected by expectations and emotions, the bond market tumbled this week. The official unveiling of a super hydropower project drove up resource stocks, with the A-share market reaching 3,600 points, suppressing the bond market. The introduction of anti-involution policies led to the limit-up of multiple commodity futures prices, reducing investors' concerns about deflation [1][4][12][35]. - As of July 25, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 24BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low position. Although the stock market's strength suppresses bond market sentiment, the domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamentals supporting the bond market have not yet shown an inflection point. The actual effect of "anti-involution" remains to be tested. The risk of 10-year treasury bonds above 1.7% has been initially released, but the term spread and variety spread protection for 30-year treasury bonds and 20-year China Development Bank bonds are limited [2][3][13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Affected by expectations and emotions, the bond market tumbled this week. The super hydropower project and anti-involution policies influenced the market. Last week, ultra-long bond trading activity increased significantly, and the term spread widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][4][12]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of July 25, the 30-year - 10-year treasury bond spread was 24BP, historically low. In June, the domestic economy showed resilience but weak domestic demand. GDP grew about 5.2% year-on-year, up 0.1% from May, still above the annual target, but the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined. CPI was 0.1%, PPI -3.6%, with deflation risks. The stock market suppresses bond sentiment, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the "anti-involution" effect is uncertain. The risk of 10-year treasury bonds above 1.7% has been initially released, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of July 25, the 20-year CDB - 20-year treasury bond spread was 2BP, historically extremely low. The economic situation in June was similar to that of 30-year treasury bonds. The stock market suppresses bond sentiment, the economic downward pressure remains, and the "anti-involution" effect is uncertain. The risk of 10-year treasury bonds above 1.7% has been initially released, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][14]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 222,528 billion, accounting for 14.5% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, totaling 2,950 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 830 billion, local government bonds 1,810 billion, etc. By term, 15-year bonds were 618 billion, 20-year bonds 744 billion, and 30-year bonds 1,588 billion [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 1,719 billion yuan, including 350 billion in ultra-long treasury bonds, 1,262 billion in ultra-long local government bonds, etc. [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra-long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 14,782 billion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of all bond turnover. By variety, ultra-long treasury bonds had a turnover of 11,654 billion yuan, ultra-long local bonds 2,541 billion yuan, etc. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [28]. Yield - Affected by expectations and emotions, the bond market tumbled this week. The yields of various ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed by 6BP, 9BP, 8BP, and 7BP to 1.87%, 1.99%, 1.97%, and 2.02% respectively [35]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra-long bond term spread widened, but the absolute level was low. The 30-year - 10-year treasury bond spread was 24BP, up 2BP from the previous week, at the 8% percentile since 2010 [47]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra-long bond variety spread narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 2BP and 6BP respectively, down 2BP and 1BP from the previous week, at the 3% percentile since 2010 [50]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures variety TL2509 closed at 117.95 yuan, a decline of 2.08%. The total trading volume was 781,200 lots (342,890 lots), and the open interest was 160,200 lots (10,208 lots). The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Last week, the equity market continued to rise, with sectors such as infrastructure, building materials, and coal performing well, while the banking sector adjusted. The bond market declined rapidly, and the convertible bond market saw most individual bonds close higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% for the week, the median price increased 1.66%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity rose 2.54%. The overall market conversion premium rate decreased 1.33% compared to the previous week [1][8]. - Catalyzed by the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, market sentiment remained high. The convertible bond market also rose with increased trading volume, and the median market price approached 130 yuan. Although many convertible bonds triggered the call provisions, the premium rates of high - priced convertible bonds did not significantly compress. The current cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is not high, and structural opportunities may still be dominant. It is recommended to focus on sectors such as technology growth, self - controllability, and those related to "anti - involution" [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends (July 21 - 25, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market continued to rise. Driven by the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the "anti - involution" policy, sectors like infrastructure, building materials, and coal performed well, while the previously high - rising banking sector adjusted. Most Shenwan primary industries closed higher, with building materials (+8.20%), coal (+7.98%), and steel (+7.67%) leading the gains, and banking (-2.87%), communication (-0.77%), and public utilities (-0.27%) lagging [7][8]. Bond Market - The bond market declined rapidly. Due to the hydropower project, the "anti - involution" policy, and the change in open - market operations from net injection to net withdrawal, bond market sentiment was weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.73% on Friday, up 6.72bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond individual bonds closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% for the week, the median price increased 1.66%, and the arithmetic average parity rose 2.54%. The overall market conversion premium rate decreased 1.33% compared to the previous week. In terms of industries, building materials (+10.68%), coal (+6.01%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+4.74%) led the gains, while banking (-0.41%), social services (+0.57%), and environmental protection (+0.59%) lagged. Tianlu, Saili, Dayu, Songlin, and Punan convertible bonds had the highest gains, while Hongfeng, Huicheng, Bohui, Mingdian, and Limin convertible bonds had the largest losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 403.371 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 80.674 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week [1][8][11] Valuation Overview - As of July 25, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for par values in different ranges were at relatively high percentile levels. For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for par values below 70 yuan was -2.26%, at the 1%/0% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 37.04%, at the 70%/53% percentile since 2010/2021, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was -10.2%, at the 41%/39% percentile since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (July 21 - 25, 2025), no convertible bonds were announced for issuance, but Libo and Guanghe convertible bonds were listed. Libo Convertible Bond had a scale of 750 million yuan, and Guanghe Convertible Bond had a scale of 4.9 billion yuan. In the coming week (July 28 - August 1, 2025), no convertible bonds are announced for issuance, and Bo 25 Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 2.802 billion yuan. As of now, there are 71 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 113.9 billion yuan, including 4 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.28 billion yuan and 3 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 3.95 billion yuan [28][29][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report regularly summarizes the latest information on private exchangeable bond (Private EB) projects obtained from public channels and conducts basic element tracking on private exchangeable bond projects. It should be noted that the private issuance terms and the issuance process may be subject to change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. For the issuance progress, consultation with the relevant lead underwriters is recommended. This week, there is no new project information [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Private EB Project Tracking - **No New Projects This Week**: There is no new project information this week (some projects are not listed due to compliance reasons) [2]. - **List of Existing Projects**: The report lists multiple private EB projects, including details such as bond names, lead underwriters, scales, underlying stocks, project statuses, and update dates. Projects are in two statuses: "Passed" and "Feedback Received". For example, the "Beijing He Xie Heng Yuan Technology Co., Ltd. 2025 Private Placement Exchangeable Corporate Bonds for Professional Investors" with a scale of 6 and underlying stock of Sichuan Shuangma has passed, updated on July 18, 2025; the "Fuda Holding Group Co., Ltd. 2025 Private Placement Exchangeable Corporate Bonds for Professional Investors" with a scale of 12 and underlying stock of Fuda Co., Ltd. has received feedback, updated on July 11, 2025 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -受预期和情绪影响，本周债市暴跌，一是超级水电站项目揭牌带动资源股暴涨，A股站上3600点压制债市，二是反内卷政策出台使投资者对通缩担忧下降 [1][4][12][35] -当前国内经济有下行压力，债市基本面未现拐点，“反内卷”效果待检验，1.7%以上的10年期国债风险初步释放，但30年国债期限利差和20年国开债品种利差偏低，保护度有限 [2][3][13][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review -本周债市因预期和情绪暴跌，超级水电站项目和反内卷政策影响市场 [1][4][12] -上周超长债交投活跃度大幅上升，期限利差走阔、品种利差缩窄 [1][4][12] Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook -30年国债：截至7月25日，30年与10年国债利差24BP，处于历史偏低水平，经济有韧性但内需弱，通缩风险依存 [2][13] -20年国开债：截至7月25日，20年国开债与国债利差2BP，处于历史极低位置，经济情况与30年国债类似 [3][14] Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview -截至6月30日，剩余期限超14年的超长债余额22.2528万亿，占全部债券余额14.5%，地方政府债和国债是主要品种 [15] -按品种，国债、地方政府债等各有占比；按剩余期限，25 - 35年品种占比最高 [15] Primary Market Weekly Issuance -上周（2025.7.7 - 2025.7.11）超长债发行量小幅增加，共发行2950亿元 [20] -分品种和期限，各有不同发行量 [20] This Week's Scheduled Issuance -本周已公布超长债发行计划共1719亿，涉及多种债券品种 [26] Secondary Market Trading Volume -上周超长债交投活跃，成交额14782亿，占比15.0%，各品种成交额及占比有差异 [28] -与上上周相比，超长债交投活跃度大幅上升，各品种成交额和占比均增加 [28] Yield -本周债市暴跌，各期限国债、国开债、地方债、铁道债收益率有变动 [35] -代表性个券中，30年国债活跃券和20年国开债活跃券收益率有变动 [36] Spread Analysis -期限利差：上周超长债期限利差走阔，绝对水平偏低，30年 - 10年国债利差24BP，较上上周变动2BP [47] -品种利差：上周超长债品种利差缩窄，绝对水平偏低，20年国开债和国债利差、20年铁道债和国债利差分较上上周变动 - 2BP和 - 1BP [50] 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures -上周30年国债期货主力品种TL2509收117.95元，增幅 - 2.08%，成交量大幅上升、持仓量小幅上升 [52]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector is entering a favorable period for investment as the bull market atmosphere strengthens, suggesting a good opportunity for high-quality cyclical stocks [1][5][33] - Historical analysis shows that in previous bull markets, the banking sector typically experiences three phases: initial phase with moderate gains, mid-phase where growth sectors outperform, and a late phase where banks present the best investment opportunities with both absolute and excess returns [4][9][28] Market Performance Analysis - Since 2010, the banking sector has shown varying performance across three bull market cycles, with only the 2016-2018 cycle yielding excess returns for banks [6][9] - In the 2014-2015 bull market, the banking index rose by 96.8%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 152.2% [6][10] - The 2016-2018 bull market saw the banking index increase by 44.8%, compared to a 32.3% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [6][10] - The 2019-2021 cycle had the banking index rising by 37.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 50.0% [6][10] Sector Rotation and Stock Selection - The report highlights that during the 2014-2015 bull market, city commercial banks and joint-stock banks performed well, with Nanjing Bank, Everbright Bank, and Ningbo Bank leading with gains of 181.6%, 171.3%, and 154.6% respectively [12][15] - In the 2016-2018 period, leading banks included China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, with respective gains of 144.6% and 126.5% [15][25] - The 2019 cycle saw Ping An Bank and Ningbo Bank leading with gains of 79.1% and 77.9%, indicating significant stock differentiation [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks with a significant retail component, as they are expected to have improved win rates and high payout ratios [5][36] - Specific banks recommended for investment include Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, as they are positioned well in the current market environment [5][36]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B continues to rise, indicating improved economic conditions in real estate and investment sectors[1] - Index B standardized increased by 0.3, outperforming historical averages, suggesting accelerating domestic economic growth momentum[1] - For the week of July 25, 2025, Index A is at 0.29, Index B at 98.5, and Index C at -4.6% (+0.4 pct) indicating a mixed performance across sectors[11] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have decreased, with July CPI food prices expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, and overall CPI also expected to increase by 0.5%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential increase in the ten-year government bond yield and a decrease in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 2, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 2, 2025, is 2.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,193.21[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with significant gains in upstream industries. The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.5% [1] - The report highlights that the overall EPS forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Connect has been revised upward by 0.4%, with the steel industry seeing a notable increase of 14.2% in EPS expectations [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.5%. Mid-cap stocks outperformed large-cap and small-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks up by 3.9% [1] - Among the major concept indices, the Hang Seng High Dividend Index led with a 4.2% increase, while the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index lagged with only a 0.6% increase [1] Fund Flow - The average daily fund inflow decreased to HKD 1.26 billion from HKD 1.41 billion the previous week. A total of 28 industries saw fund inflows, with non-bank financials leading at HKD 230 million per day [2] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was revised upward by 0.4%, with 28 industries seeing upward revisions. The steel industry had the highest upward revision at 14.2% [3]