Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally sound, have been "misjudged" during these shocks and may present better entry points as the market stabilizes [1][6]. - The report indicates that after the liquidity shock, the core logic of commodity markets remains unchanged, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and the potential for recovery in mispriced commodities [6]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs, noting that macroeconomic data and policy expectations have fluctuated, with interest rate cut expectations providing temporary support for gold [2][9]. - It emphasizes the importance of geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in supporting gold prices, while also indicating that the market may experience high volatility in February 2026 [2][9]. Fixed Income - The report provides an analysis of the Hai Tian convertible bond, predicting a listing price between 125.75 and 139.83 CNY, with a conversion premium of approximately 30% [3][10]. - It highlights the company's stable revenue growth and the strategic use of raised funds for infrastructure projects, indicating a solid credit rating and good debt protection [10][11]. Industry Analysis - The report identifies a shift in the semiconductor and storage industry driven by AI demand, suggesting that storage capacity is becoming a critical bottleneck for AI performance [4][12]. - It recommends focusing on companies like SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-capacity storage solutions [4][12]. - The report notes that the chemical sector is expected to see continued improvement in market conditions due to structural changes in demand, particularly from emerging industries [7][12]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on Yum China, highlighting its robust dividend yield and steady revenue growth, with projections for continued expansion in store numbers and profitability [5][13][14]. - It notes that the company has successfully improved operational efficiency and cost management, contributing to its strong financial performance [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery sector is expected to transition from a seasonal low to a peak demand period, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [1] - The report highlights the potential of space photovoltaic technology and solid-state batteries, indicating a promising future for these segments [1] Industry Trends - The power equipment sector saw a 2.2% increase, outperforming the market, with solar energy rising by 3.43% and lithium batteries by 0.77% [3] - In January, the energy storage sector recorded a procurement of 36.3 GWh, with a 42% increase in the average price of 4-hour systems over six months [3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow by over 60% in 2026, driven by new policies and market dynamics [3][4] Company Developments - Ningde Times is positioned as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation and confirmed growth trajectory [4] - Sunpower is recognized as a global leader in inverters, with significant overseas market integration [4] - Other notable companies include Ganfeng Lithium, BYD, and Enjie, all of which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the lithium battery and energy storage markets [4] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 30-50% over the next three years [3] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery and solid-state sectors, such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as well as companies involved in energy storage integration [4] - The report also highlights the potential of humanoid robots and automation technologies, suggesting a significant market opportunity in the coming years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery sector is expected to transition from a seasonal low to a peak demand period, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [1] - The report highlights the potential of space photovoltaic technology and solid-state batteries, indicating a promising future for these segments [1] Industry Trends - The electrical equipment sector saw a 2.2% increase, outperforming the market, with photovoltaic equipment rising by 3.43% and lithium batteries by 0.77% [3] - In January, the energy storage sector recorded a procurement of 36.3 GWh, with a 42% increase in the average price of 4-hour systems over six months [3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 60% growth in 2026, driven by various factors including the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act [3][8] Company Developments - Ningde Times is recognized as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation and confirmed growth trajectory [1] - Other notable companies include Sunshine Power, recognized for its inverter technology, and Siyi Electric, which is positioned well for overseas expansion [1] - BYD reported a decline in new energy vehicle production and sales in January, with a significant drop in both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage, predicting robust demand and growth in both domestic and international markets [3] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery and solid-state sectors, highlighting firms like Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy as key players [1] - The report also suggests that the robotics sector is poised for significant growth, with Tesla's upcoming Gen3 robot expected to drive demand [12]

宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208 预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社融小幅同 比多增 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转》 2026-02-08 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 8 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.08%，较上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.88%， 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.95%，较 上周 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20260208 1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险— —海外宏观与交易复盘 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王茁 执业证书：S0600526010001 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转》 2026-02-08 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大 宗商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that public fund holdings in the construction materials sector have slightly increased but remain at a low level, with the market value of heavy holdings in the construction and materials sectors accounting for 0.42% and 0.71% of A-shares, respectively [13][14] - The concentration of holdings in the construction and materials sectors has decreased, with 47 and 23 stocks held by sample funds, representing 29% and 32% of their respective industries [12][14] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Holding Analysis - The market value of heavy holdings in the construction and materials sectors has increased slightly, with respective shares of 0.42% and 0.71% of A-shares, ranking in the 28th and 26th percentiles over the past decade [13] - The concentration of holdings in the construction and materials sectors has decreased, with 47 and 23 stocks held by sample funds, representing 29% and 32% of their respective industries [12][14] 2. Individual Stock Holdings Analysis - The top five stocks by market value in the construction sector are Jin Chengxin (2.74 billion), China Construction (1.96 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (1.20 billion), Shanghai Port (0.88 billion), and Oriental Iron Tower (0.71 billion) [2] - The top five stocks by market value in the materials sector are Oriental Yuhong (2.24 billion), Sankeshu (2.05 billion), China National Materials (1.61 billion), Conch Cement (1.37 billion), and Huaxin Materials (1.11 billion) [2]

证券研究报告 智能汽车主线周报： 《汽车数据出境安全指引(2026版)》印发，看好智能化 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2026.2.2-2026.2.8 2 ◼ 本周智能汽车行情复盘：我们编撰的智能汽车指数-3.3%，智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）+0.2%，智能汽车指 数（除整车）-0.1%。截至2026年2月6日，智能汽车指数PS(TTM）为14.5x，该估值位于2023年初以来 98%分位数；智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）PS(TTM）为5.7x，该估值位于2023年初以来81%分位数；智能 汽车指数（除整车）PS(TTM）为9.7x，该估值位于2023年初以来79%分位数。智能汽车指数标的禾赛、理 想汽车、星宇股份、开勒股份、小马智行涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）工信部等八部门印发《汽车数据出境安全指引(2026版)》，要求汽车数据处理者应当 通过境内法人主体申报数据出境安全评估；2）Uber公布计划今年内在香港推出Ro ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油产量下降，后续关注美伊谈判进展 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别67.7/63.5美元/桶，较上周分别-0.9/+0.1美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.2/4.2/0.2亿桶，环比-324/- 346/+21/-74万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1322万桶/天，环比-48万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周412台，环比+1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周148部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1603万桶/天，环比-18万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为90.5%，环比-0.4pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260208 Claude Opus 4.6 开启多 Agent 协作模式 2026 年 02 月 08 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 本周 AI 要闻 （信息来源：第一财经、财联社、AI daily 等） 周度观点 ◼ Claude Opus 4.6 开启多 Agent 协作模式，AI 向生活场景渗透 （1）本周全球 AI 产业延续算力、模型与应用协同推进的演进趋势，基础 设施加码与应用场景扩展两条主线持续延展。算力端，头部云厂商持续加 大资本开支并通过融资扩容云基础设施，国内中科曙光万卡超集群上线试 运行，显示算力资源正加速向具备资金与技术优势的主体集中，行业门槛 持续抬升。模型端，随着大模型能力向复杂任务拆解与现实执行延伸，海 外厂商通过多 Agent 协作与企业级工作流，推动 AI 向"AI 员工"形态演 进，国内厂商则通过开源完善具身智能技术体系，推动模型能力向物理世 界延伸。应用端，AI 一方面通过人形机器人加速进入现实执行场景，另一 方面借助消费与开发等高频数字场景培育用户使用习惯。整体来看，AI 产 业正在算力集中与 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.6), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 dropped from 1.81% last Friday to 1.802% this Friday, a decrease of 0.8bp. The bond market oscillated within a very narrow range, with 1.8% becoming the invisible lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield. It is recommended to add duration cautiously to avoid the disturbances brought by the recovery of production demand after the Spring Festival and the goals of the Two Sessions in March [1][9][14]. - The significant fluctuations of overseas assets in the early stage have been repaired this week. The market's divergence is significantly increasing, and the previous structured market is undergoing "destructuring". It is expected that at least in the first half of 2026, the technology growth will maintain its momentum. The subsequent interest rate path is still dominated by fundamental data [15]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US fluctuates in the short - term, and the number of continued claims declines. The unemployment rate steadily rises, and the labor participation rate fluctuates weakly, indicating the structural pressure in the employment market. The year - on - year increases of the US CPI and core CPI continue to narrow, and the inflation pressure is further alleviated. The Fed has pressed the "pause button" on interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows significant "diversification" characteristics [16][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Views - **Analysis of the Bond Market's Narrow - Range Oscillation**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased. The bond market oscillated in a narrow range. The central bank's net purchase of Treasury bonds in the open - market in January 2026 was 100 billion yuan, the highest since the resumption of Treasury bond trading last October, but more restrained compared with 2024. The reasons are that it can supplement the liquidity gap at the beginning of the year and reduce the bank's liability cost, and the central bank tends to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity [1][9][14]. - **Analysis of the Future Trend of US Treasury Yields**: Overseas asset fluctuations have been repaired. The technology growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the first half of 2026. The Fed's policy signal has turned dovish this week, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The subsequent interest rate path depends on fundamental data [15]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data**: The US labor market has a "low - hiring, low - firing" pattern, and the employment market has structural pressure. The inflation pressure in the US is further alleviated, and the manufacturing shipment volume and inventory total expand synchronously. The Fed has paused interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows "diversification" [16][18][19]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From 2026/2/2 to 2026/2/6, the total net investment in the open - market was - 756 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [29]. - **Interest Rate Comparison**: The money - market interest rates, including R, DR, and SHIBOR, showed different degrees of decline this week compared with last week [34]. 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity Price Changes**: Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have all declined. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, vegetable price indices, RJ/CRB commodity price indices, and South China industrial product price indices have shown different trends [52]. - **Stock and Bond Market Performance**: The VIX panic index led the increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Stock Index led the decline. The short - end and long - end of the US Treasury yield curve have both risen [62][68][71]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: This week, 90 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 579.673 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 300 million yuan, and a net financing amount of 579.373 billion yuan, mainly invested in the comprehensive field [81]. - **Regional Issuance**: 15 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. 11 provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Chongqing [85][89]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 3.6 billion yuan, all from Anhui Province. Since November 15, 2024, the total early redemption scale of national urban investment bonds has been 121.007 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [91][95]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local government bonds this week was 55.89 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 437.52 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.78%. The top three provinces with active local government bond trading were Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The top three trading - active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [99]. - **Yield Changes**: The maturity yields of local government bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [102]. 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and cities such as Zhejiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hunan, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing from February 9 to February 11, 2026, are presented [106]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Overall Issuance**: This week, 440 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 358.206 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 102.182 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 256.024 billion yuan, an increase of 100.335 billion yuan compared with last week [107]. - **By Bond Type**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of 57.856 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 198.167 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 88.497 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 2.186 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 124.115 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing amount of 10.273 billion yuan [108][114]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds increased by 6.61bp, medium - term notes decreased by 14.33bp, and corporate bonds increased by 3.54bp [124]. 4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 561.09 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for each bond type [125]. 4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds declined across the board this week. The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally declined, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [124][126][127][128]. 4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes increased across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally increased [130][132][134]. 4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [137][141][145]. 4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, optional consumption, and daily consumption [149][151]. 4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [152].