证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251203 换手率变化率的稳定 GTR 选股因子绩效月 报 20251130 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 12 月 03 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《换手率变化率的稳定 GTR 因子— —助推换手率的所有家族成员》 2023-05-16 《换手率变化率的稳定 GTR 选股因 子绩效月报 20251031》 2025-11-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 图 | 1： | 换手率变化率的稳定 | | 因子 GTR | 10 | 分组及多空对冲净值走势（2006/01-2025/11） | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 纯净优加 | TPS_Turbo | 因子 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-03 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品深度报告 20251202：恒生科技 ETF， 2025 年 11 月复盘及 12 月展望 事件驱动盘点： 宏观层面：宏观层面，海外与国内因素共同压制市场。 国内需求数据虽有改善，但 10 月制造业 PMI 回落打击市场信心；海外因 美国关键数据缺失及 9 月非农数据背离，导致宏观能见度骤降，影响流 动性宽松预期并压制全球投资者的风险偏好。在内外双重不确定性下，资 金避险情绪浓厚，致使指数重心下移并进入缩量盘整。 政策层面：政策 层面，流动性支持与产业指引为市场提供支撑。国内"财政发债+货币续 作"有效对冲资金扰动，海外美联储释放鸽派信号，共同稳定估值环境； 新能源、卫星物联网等产业政策密集出台，为相关板块基本面修复提供了 长期的利好支持。 行业层面：行业层面，消费科技板块财报呈现结构性 分化。美团、京东、阿里等因竞争激烈，战略投入扩大致利润回调甚至转 亏；腾讯、小米等通过出海与高端化实现盈利提升。AI 领域技术突破为 商业化开辟新路径，企业盈利差异成为影响市场预期的关键变量。 ...

Core Conclusions - AI-driven demand for liquid cooling and robotics is expected to create a new growth curve for the automotive parts industry, with liquid cooling systems becoming a necessity due to high power density scenarios driven by AI, and robotics transitioning from initial development to scaling production [2][4] - Automotive parts companies with capabilities in technology integration, cost reduction, and global operations will benefit from the AI wave, as automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers expand their business boundaries through collaborative manufacturing and scenario integration [2][4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with global supply chain capabilities in the robotics sector such as Top Group, Zhongding, XPeng Motors, and Junsheng Electronics, as well as in the liquid cooling sector [2][4] Robotics Sector - The Tesla Optimus V3 is nearing finalization, marking the transition of the robotics sector from initial development to scaling production, with a projected launch of a million-unit production line by the end of the year [5][6] - Domestic robotics companies are rapidly advancing, with significant orders being placed for products, indicating a shift from experimental to commercial applications [6][33] - The robotics sector is expected to enter a high-growth phase in 2026, with a focus on companies that demonstrate high certainty and technological advancements [6][12] Liquid Cooling Sector - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to enter a phase of large-scale penetration and high demand realization, driven by the automotive industry's need for effective thermal management solutions [2][4] - Companies such as Top Group and Zhongding are highlighted as key players in the liquid cooling sector, expected to benefit from the growing demand [2][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong global capabilities and certainty in their business models, particularly in the robotics and liquid cooling sectors [2][4] - Specific recommendations include Top Group, Zhongding, and Silver Wheel in the liquid cooling space, and Top Group, Zhongding, XPeng Motors, and Junsheng Electronics in the robotics space [2][4]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 比亚迪（002594） 2025 年 11 月销量点评：11 月销量环比提升， 继续加快高端化和出口 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 839,362 | 962,019 | 1,107,275 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 8.01 | 14.61 | 15.10 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 35,011 | 50,927 | 66,393 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | (13.03) | 45.46 | 30.37 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.29 | 4.42 | 3.84 | 5.59 | 7.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.32 | 21.88 | 25.16 | 17.30 | 13.2 ...

网龙（00777.HK） AI 赋能游戏教育，多元投资增厚业绩 2025 年 12 月 02 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,101 | 6,047 | 4,641 | 4,932 | 5,267 | | 同比(%) | (9.73) | (14.84) | (23.25) | 6.27 | 6.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 550.00 | 311.00 | 401.28 | 674.49 | 682.41 | | 同比(%) | (34.05) | (43.45) | 29.03 | 68.09 | 1.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.04 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 1.27 | 1.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 9.89 | 17.50 | 13.56 | 8.07 | 7.97 | 证券研究报告·海外公司深度·软件服务(HS) [Ta ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative decline of 5.23% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a trading volume of approximately CNY 14,557 billion[10] - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.38, positioned at the 33.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating relatively low historical valuation[15] - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 7.13 on November 28, 2025, suggesting a low investment risk at the current market level[16] Macro and Policy Analysis - Domestic demand data showed improvement, but the manufacturing PMI for October fell below the expansion threshold, negatively impacting market confidence[19] - The combination of "fiscal bond issuance + monetary policy continuation" effectively mitigated funding disturbances, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve stabilized the valuation environment[29] - The release of multiple industry policies, particularly in new energy and satellite IoT, provided long-term support for the relevant sectors' fundamentals[29] Industry Dynamics - The consumer technology sector showed structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan and JD.com facing profit declines due to intensified competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi improved profitability through international expansion and premiumization[40] - AI breakthroughs opened new commercial pathways, with the disparity in corporate earnings becoming a key variable affecting market expectations[40] Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to maintain a bottom consolidation and slight upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations[58] - Key upcoming events include the December FOMC meeting and the release of various macroeconomic data, which will significantly impact market sentiment and index performance[58]

Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a cumulative decline of 1.64% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $50,457 billion[9] - As of November 28, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM was 36.50, placing it at the 91.4% historical percentile since 2011, indicating a relatively high valuation[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index was 56.28 as of November 28, significantly down from 92.57 at the end of October, suggesting improved market sentiment[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - The macro environment in November was characterized by mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at 48.7, below expectations, while non-manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts[19] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated significantly, with a notable shift towards dovish sentiment by the end of November, raising the probability of a rate cut in December to 71%[34] - The cancellation of the October CPI report due to government shutdown created uncertainty in assessing inflation trends, further complicating the Fed's decision-making[25] Industry Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index's volatility in November was heavily influenced by AI-related developments, with concerns about an AI bubble exacerbated by bearish comments from notable investors[35] - Google's launch of the Gemini 3 AI model and Nvidia's strong earnings report helped stabilize market sentiment towards the end of the month, despite initial fears of an AI bubble[36] - The market's focus shifted towards the actual performance of AI companies, with investors demanding stronger evidence of profitability and valuation rationality[35] Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to experience upward momentum in December, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing and the ongoing AI industry revolution[48] - Key economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market expectations and the Fed's policy direction[50] - The upcoming earnings reports from major semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Micron will provide insights into the demand for AI-related investments and overall tech sector performance[51]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251202 预期高股息组合跟踪-20251128 2025 年 12 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 2025 年 12 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 601077.SH | 渝农商行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 600000.SH | 浦发银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 600919.SH | 江苏银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601998.SH | 中信银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 601658.SH | 邮储银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 7 | ...

执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 2025/2026 财年中报点评：业绩承压，自由现 金流持续改善 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 81,410 | 79,258 | 76,748 | 77,444 | 78,489 | | 同比(%) | (11.50) | (2.64) | (3.17) | 0.91 | 1.35 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 3,185 | 3,252 | 2,976 | 3,182 | 3,446 | | 同比(%) | (25.82) | 2.09 | (8.47) | 6.92 | 8.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 ...