Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a cumulative investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2] - The lithium battery equipment sector is benefiting from the release of impairment risks and accelerated production expansion, particularly with major players like CATL increasing their production capacity [3] - The humanoid robot sector is seeing advancements with the launch of second-generation electronic skin and accelerated mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot [4] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator machinery, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations [5] - The forklift industry is undergoing a transformation towards automation and intelligence, driven by AI advancements [6] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in the energy sector is projected to drive significant growth in oil service equipment exports, particularly to the Middle East, with leading companies like Jereh and Neway experiencing explosive order growth [2] Lithium Battery Equipment - The sector has accounted for a total impairment provision of 5.7 billion yuan, with major expansions planned by CATL, including a new factory in Hungary with a total capacity of 72GWh [3] - Solid-state battery technology is emerging as a key growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent expected to benefit significantly [3] Humanoid Robots - The introduction of advanced electronic skin technology enhances the capabilities of humanoid robots, while Tesla's Optimus robot is moving towards mass production [4] Engineering Machinery - Despite a decrease in excavator sales, there is a notable recovery in other machinery segments, with exports showing a 9% increase in the first four months of 2025 [5] Forklift Industry - The integration of AI in logistics is accelerating the shift towards automated and intelligent forklifts, with significant opportunities for leading companies in the sector [6]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250608 5 月非农超预期带动降息预期进一步降温 2025 年 06 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 ◼ 5 月非农：新增就业与时薪略超预期令降息预期进一步降温，但数据细 节或暗示美国劳务市场"外强中干"。美国 5 月新增非农就业+13.9 万， 预期+12.6 万，前值由+17.7 万下修至+14.7 万，前两个月数据累计下修 9.5 万。失业率 4.2%，持平预期与前值。时薪环比+0.4%，预期+0.3%， 前值+0.2%。从结构上看，新增就业的主要贡献来自教育医保（+8.7 万） 和休闲餐旅（+4.8 万）。整体来看，5 月略超预期的新增就业和时薪令市 场交易美国经济不着陆，降息预期进一步降温，截至最新联邦基金期货 市场预期 9 月降息概率下降至 68.3%，到 25 年底 ...

Group 1: Market News - The Ministry of Finance has included the implementation regulations of the VAT law in the 2025 legislative work plan, aiming to improve the VAT collection and payment system[9] - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported 11 concluded antitrust cases in 2024, effectively reducing living costs and corporate burdens[11] Group 2: Industry News - From January to April 2025, China's service trade totaled 26,320.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with exports growing by 14.6% and imports by 3.9%[12] - OPEC+ countries are set to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting July, while Canadian wildfires have temporarily halted approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude production[14] Group 3: Market Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the North Exchange A-share component stocks totaled 266, with an average market capitalization of 3.015 billion RMB, and the trading volume reached 25.371 billion RMB, down 5.23% from the previous trading day[16] - The North Exchange's trading volume decreased by 1.399 billion RMB, with 118 stocks closing up, led by Zhongcheng Technology, New Weiling, and Zhongshe Consulting, which rose by 22.89%, 13.86%, and 8.0% respectively[17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - Major overseas companies like Nvidia, Credo, and Broadcom have reported better-than-expected earnings, which, combined with the domestic AI transformation in traditional industries, has catalyzed a market surge for domestic GPU procurement [1]. - The report highlights that the demand for ASICs will remain strong until 2026, with Broadcom making significant progress with three major clients [2]. - The domestic GPU procurement initiated by state-owned enterprises, such as the Agricultural Development Bank of China, is expected to boost the market for domestic computing chips [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the computing power sector has shown excellent performance, with significant weekly gains in various segments, including PCB/CCL and optical chips, with companies like Shenghong Technology and Taicheng Light achieving increases of 15.86% and 30.31%, respectively [1]. - The report anticipates that the computing power-related companies in the A-share market are entering a performance release phase after overcoming capacity bottlenecks [1]. Company Performance - Credo's FY25Q4 revenue reached $170 million, a year-on-year increase of 180%, with a gross margin of 67.4% [2]. - Broadcom reported a record revenue of $15.004 billion for FY25Q2, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by strong AI semiconductor business performance [4]. - Wistron and Inventec reported significant revenue growth in May, with Wistron achieving a 162.1% year-on-year increase [9][10]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the demand for AI accelerators is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026, with Broadcom predicting continued growth in AI semiconductor revenue [8]. - The introduction of new products, such as the 800G transceiver by Credo, is expected to set new industry benchmarks for energy efficiency [3]. Domestic GPU Procurement - The report details the successful procurement of domestic GPU servers by the Agricultural Development Bank, highlighting the recognition and support for domestic GPU service providers [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) supply technology, with an overall efficiency exceeding 97.5%. It has a complete supply chain system and the capability for large-scale production and delivery [3][62]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the data center power supply sector, widely used across various industries including internet, finance, and telecommunications. Its international market presence is expanding, with operations in regions such as Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia [3][62]. - The report anticipates explosive growth in AI computing demand, which will accelerate the iteration of intelligent computing infrastructure. The company is expected to benefit significantly from this trend, especially as it strengthens ties with major internet giants and national computing hubs [3][62]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 19.62 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.10 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 178.52% [3][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.19 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 82.56 based on the latest diluted EPS [3][25]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong competitive edge due to its early entry into the HVDC market and its ability to meet the growing demand for efficient power solutions in data centers. Its products are already integral to the operations of major clients like Alibaba and Tencent [3][62]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with plans to leverage its Singapore subsidiary to enhance its global footprint in technology and product offerings [3][62]. Market Outlook - The global HVDC market is expected to reach 17.7 billion dollars by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 121% from 2024 to 2027. The report highlights that the domestic market is currently concentrated, with the company holding a significant market share [3][56]. - The report emphasizes the increasing adoption of HVDC technology as a replacement for traditional UPS systems in AI data centers, driven by the rising power density of AI servers [3][56].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Zhongheng Electric [1][3]. Core Views - Zhongheng Electric is positioned as a leader in the HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) supply technology in China, with an overall efficiency exceeding 97.5%. The company has a robust supply chain and scalable production capabilities, which are expected to drive performance beyond expectations as market penetration increases [3][62]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to surge, accelerating the iteration of intelligent computing infrastructure. Zhongheng Electric is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its technological barriers in the HVDC field and comprehensive energy solutions [3][62]. - The company has established deep strategic partnerships with major internet giants and is expanding its international presence, particularly in regions such as Africa, West Asia, and Southeast Asia [3][62]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected total revenue for Zhongheng Electric is expected to grow from 1,555 million yuan in 2023 to 4,581 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.25% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase significantly from 39.36 million yuan in 2023 to 306.05 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 170.51% in 2024 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 0.07 yuan in 2023 to 0.54 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [1]. Competitive Advantages - Zhongheng Electric has a solid foothold in the data center power supply sector, with a revenue increase of 111.05% in its data center power business in 2024, contributing to 34% of total revenue [3][25]. - The company has a high market share in the HVDC sector, with its products widely used across various applications, including internet data centers, third-party colocation, and supercomputing centers [3][65]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore to enhance its global operations [3][68]. Market Outlook - The global market for HVDC is projected to reach 17.7 billion USD by 2027, with a CAGR of 121% from 2024 to 2027, driven by increasing demand for efficient power supply solutions in AI data centers [3][56]. - The report highlights that the domestic HVDC market is currently concentrated, with Zhongheng Electric holding a significant share alongside a few other key players [3][54]. - The transition from traditional UPS systems to HVDC solutions is expected to accelerate, particularly as AI computing power demands increase, positioning Zhongheng Electric favorably in the evolving market landscape [3][42].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 1.21 trillion CNY, an increase of 114.9 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a weekly increase of 1.13%[11] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks continued to rebound, while the North Securities 50 index began to decline in the last two trading days[11] - The ChiNext 50 index, which performed poorly in May, experienced a rebound with a weekly increase of 2.32%[11] Participant Performance - The private equity heavy positions index outperformed with a weekly increase of 2.40%, marking a 50.53% increase since September 24, 2024[19] - The market sentiment index also showed strong performance with a weekly increase of 1.66% and a 59.02% increase since September 24, 2024[19] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included computing power communication and rare earths, driven by North American demand and export controls affecting the automotive industry[39] - The report highlights a focus on sectors such as consumer electronics, industrial automation, and new energy technologies for future investments[45] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate cuts, and geopolitical events that could impact market stability[48]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 1.21 trillion CNY, an increase of 114.9 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a weekly increase of 1.13%[11] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks continued to rebound, while the North Securities 50 index began to decline in the last two trading days[11] - The ChiNext 50 index, which performed poorly in May, experienced a rebound with a weekly increase of 2.32%[11] Participant Performance - The private equity heavy positions index outperformed with a weekly increase of 2.40%, marking a 50.53% increase since September 24, 2024[19] - The market sentiment index also showed strong performance with a weekly increase of 1.66% and a 59.02% increase since September 24, 2024[19] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included computing power communication and rare earths, driven by North American demand and export controls affecting the automotive industry[39] - The report highlights a focus on sectors such as consumer electronics, industrial automation, and new energy technologies for mid-term investment strategies[45] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate cuts, and geopolitical events that could impact market stability[48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - Overseas major companies continue to release better-than-expected performance, while domestic traditional industries are beginning to transform with AI, leading to a turning point in computing power consumption [1] - The performance of the computing power sector has been outstanding, with significant gains in various segments, including PCB/CCL, copper cable, optical chips, and server manufacturing [1] - The report suggests that the computing power-related companies in the A-share market are entering a performance release period after overcoming capacity bottlenecks, and it is recommended to continue monitoring these developments [1] Summary by Sections ASIC and GPU Demand - Credo reported FY25Q4 revenue of $170 million, a year-on-year increase of 180% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26%, with a gross margin of 67.4% [2] - Broadcom's FY25Q2 revenue reached $15.004 billion, a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 20% and a gross margin of 79.4% [4] - ASIC demand is expected to remain strong until 2026, with Broadcom anticipating significant deployments of AI accelerators by major clients [8] Optical Modules and Retimer Performance - Credo won a significant DSP order for an 800G transceiver, expected to be deployed in U.S. hyperscale data centers in FY26 [3] - The Retimer segment showed strong performance, driven by high-speed Ethernet solutions [3] Domestic GPU Procurement - The Chinese Agricultural Development Bank initiated a procurement process for domestic GPU servers, with major suppliers like Huawei and Inspur being recognized for their capabilities [11] - The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank also announced a procurement project for Kunpeng chip servers, indicating a growing demand for domestic computing power solutions [12] Industry Performance - Companies like Wistron and Inventec reported significant revenue growth in May, driven by strong demand for AI servers [9][10] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the technological advancements of domestic GPU server companies [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - BYD's May sales reached 382,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with strong export performance [7] - The company initiated a price reduction campaign for 22 models, with discounts ranging from 12,000 to 53,000 yuan, effective from May 23 to June 30 [7] - The forecast for 2025 sales is 5.5 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 25-30%, with exports expected to double to 800,000 units [7] - The share of plug-in hybrid vehicles slightly decreased to 46%, while pure electric vehicle sales increased by 39.6% [7] - BYD's battery installation in May increased by 101%, with a total of 28.5 GWh installed [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 55.021 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.68% [1][7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 602.315 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 1,316.14 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.74% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 30.041 billion yuan in 2023 to 82.321 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 20.45% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 9.88 yuan in 2023 to 27.09 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 36.42 in 2023 to 13.29 in 2027 [1]