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建议关注核心科技题材转债
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-08 03:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Treasury yield curve rebounded across the board due to the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, and the Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The U.S. internal game uncertainty has increased, and the U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index has closed up for four consecutive trading days, challenging 3400 points. Core technology sectors have performed well, and micro - cap stocks have continued the valuation repair trend. Next week, the overall opportunities may outweigh the risks [1][42] - In terms of convertible bond styles, equal - weighted leads weighted, small - cap leads large - cap, high - price leads low - price, and AAA - rated bonds perform weakly while medium - and low - rated bonds perform strongly [1][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. The equity market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the equity market rose overall. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 1011.75 billion yuan to 11856.64 billion yuan, with a weekly on - week increase of 9.33% [9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries closed up. Communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, computers, and basic chemicals led the gains, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel led the losses [15] 1.2. The convertible bond market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries closed up, with 7 industries having a gain of over 2%. Media, communication, computers, household appliances, and beauty care led the gains, while building materials led the losses [18] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 515.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.67 billion yuan, with a on - week change of - 7.15%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 104.79 billion yuan, and the first - ranked one had a trading volume of 233.31 billion yuan [18] - Approximately 90.53% of convertible bond issues rose, about 37.68% had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 22.95% had a gain of over 2% [18] 1.3. Comparison of stock and bond market sentiments - From June 2nd to June 6th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets decreased significantly, and the underlying stock market had a larger decline in trading volume and a lower quantile level [36] - Approximately 89.71% of convertible bonds and 77.70% of underlying stocks closed up. About 40.36% of convertible bonds had a larger gain or loss than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [36] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - The U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level due to the increase in internal game uncertainty in the U.S [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, next week's opportunities may outweigh risks. It is recommended to allocate core technology themes that have corrected significantly and focus on medium - and low - priced targets with low business uncertainty, sufficient cash, and a positive attitude towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions [1][42] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Qilu Convertible Bond, Chuanheng Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, Wankai Convertible Bond, Dayu Convertible Bond, Qizheng Convertible Bond, Baidian Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, Wantian Convertible Bond, and Jinlun Convertible Bond [1]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:港口库存仍处高位,需求疲弱,煤价震荡运行
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-08 00:20
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存仍处高位,需求疲弱,煤价震荡运 行 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 供给端,本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 174.64 万吨,环比上周减少 3.96 万吨,降幅 2.22%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应,港口供给略有下降。 需求端,本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 191.69 万吨,环比上周减少 12.6 万吨,降幅 6.17%;日均锚地船舶共 68 艘,环比上周减少 14 艘,降幅 17.25%。库存端,环渤海四港区库存端 2931.9 万吨,环比上周减少 125 万吨,降幅 4.1%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降,库存绝对值减少, 但绝对值仍处高位,煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为:煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响以及汛期水电稳增 影响导致上涨动能有限,但伴随逐步进入迎峰度夏旺季期,煤价或有进 一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议: 仍旧关注保险资金增量;保费收入维持正增长,且向头部保险集中。固 收类资产荒依旧,叠加红利资产已经高位,所以关注权益配置变化,预 期更青睐于资源股。 本周(6 月 2 日至 6 月 6 日) ...
策略周评20250607:接下来行业怎么轮动?
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-07 14:17
Group 1 - The report highlights two significant market rallies since the beginning of 2025, characterized by distinct trading themes: the first being the "East Rising, West Falling" trade and the second being a rebound following tariff shocks [1][2] - The first rally was driven by a weak dollar, which benefitted emerging markets and led to a notable performance in China's technology growth sector, particularly in humanoid robots and computing power [1][2] - The second rally, which began after a sharp market drop on April 7, 2025, was marked by a lack of a clear trading theme, instead exhibiting a "fan-like" rotation among various sectors, including anti-tariff, domestic consumption, and new energy [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes a difference in the characteristics of sector rotation between the two rallies, with the first rally showing a smaller rotation area (45.2%) and a higher average excess return (7.8%) compared to the second rally, which had a larger rotation area (over 60%) but a lower average excess return (6.5%) [3][4] - In the first rally, the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector saw a significant increase in trading volume, peaking at 45% by the end of February, while the second rally indicated a shift towards other sectors like defense and new consumption [4][6] - The report anticipates that the next market rally may replicate the "East Rising, West Falling" trade, driven by a continued weak dollar and increased liquidity, with a projected total market volume rising above 1.5 trillion [5][6] Group 3 - The report suggests that in the current market environment, characterized by stock rotation, sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries should be closely monitored for potential investment opportunities [7] - It emphasizes that the upcoming market rally will likely benefit from a weak dollar, which is expected to enhance the performance of growth stocks, particularly in technology sectors like computing power and humanoid robots [7][6] - The report indicates that while some sectors may appear overvalued, the AI sector, particularly those involved in algorithm iterations and infrastructure upgrades, is expected to be a key driver of the next upward trend [6][7]
绿色债券周度数据跟踪(20250602-20250606)-20250607
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-07 13:00
Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report tracks the weekly data of green bonds from June 2, 2025, to June 6, 2025, including primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Content Primary Market Issuance - This week, 10 green bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 9.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.436 billion yuan from last week. The issuance term is mostly 3 years, the issuer nature includes local state - owned enterprises, other enterprises, state - owned enterprises, and central enterprise subsidiaries, the issuer's main credit ratings are mostly AAA and AA, and the bonds are issued in various regions and types [1] Secondary Market Trading - The weekly trading volume of green bonds this week totaled 53.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1 billion yuan from last week. By bond type, the top three in trading volume were non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds, totaling 28.1 billion yuan, 17.1 billion yuan, and 6 billion yuan respectively. By issuance term, bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 80.30%. By issuer's industry, the top three industries in trading volume were finance, public utilities, and construction, with trading volumes of 21.8 billion yuan, 11.6 billion yuan, and 3.3 billion yuan respectively. By issuer's region, the top three regions in trading volume were Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei, with trading volumes of 18.1 billion yuan, 8.1 billion yuan, and 4.8 billion yuan respectively [2] Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of green bonds this week was not significant, with the discount trading amplitude greater than the premium trading amplitude and the proportion of discount trading greater than that of premium trading. Among the discount bonds, the top three in discount rate were G23 Dali 1 (- 1.6985%), 25 Bishuiyuan MTN001 (green science and technology innovation) (- 0.7796%), and 22 Vanke GN002 (- 0.7553%), and the main industries of the issuers were public utilities, real estate, and construction. Among the premium bonds, the top four in premium rate were 25 CNOOC Leasing MTN001 (green new - energy and new - technology) (0.3348%), 21 Shen G12 (0.2879%), 23 Shandong Energy GN001A (0.1197%), and 24 Greentown Real Estate GN001 (0.1174%), and the main industries of the issuers were transportation equipment, real estate, public utilities, and construction [3]
二级资本债周度数据跟踪(20250602-20250606)-20250607
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-07 12:40
证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250607 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 (20250602-20250606) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行与存量情况: 本周(20250602-20250606)银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行二级资本 债 2 只,发行规模为 60.00 亿元。发行年限为 10Y;发行人性质为地方 国有企业;主体评级为 AAA;发行人地域为天津市、吉林省。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日,二级资本债存量余额达 45,840.35 亿元,较上周 末(20250530)增加 60.0 亿元。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况: 本周(20250602-20250606)二级资本债周成交量合计约 1213 亿元,较 上周减少 535 亿元,成交量前三个券分别为 25 中信银行二级资本债 01BC(99.73 亿元)、25 工行二级资本债 02BC(68.33 亿元)和 25 工 行二级资本债 02BC(56.85 亿元)。 分发行主体地域来看,成交量前三为北京市、上海市和福建省,分别约 为 934 亿元、73 亿元和 55 亿元。 从到期收益率 ...
工程机械行业点评报告:AI驱动无人叉车技术持续发展,智慧物流有望迎来快速发展期
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-06 14:24
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The AI-driven unmanned forklift technology is continuously developing, and the smart logistics sector is expected to experience rapid growth [1] - The unmanned forklift industry consists of three core segments: controller suppliers, vehicle body suppliers, and system integrators [2] - Major logistics and technology companies are collaborating with forklift manufacturers, accelerating the transformation of the industry towards automation and intelligence [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The logistics industry is facing urgent demands for digital and intelligent transformation due to increasing global competition and rapidly changing consumer needs [1] - AI technologies are enhancing the efficiency of warehouse operations through automated guided vehicles (AGVs), sorting machines, and robotic arms [1] Industry Structure - The unmanned forklift supply chain includes: 1. **Controller Suppliers**: Key players include XianGong Intelligent and NDC, with a projected gross margin of 81% for controllers in 2024 [2] 2. **Vehicle Body Suppliers**: Traditional suppliers like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group face intense competition, with gross margins typically between 15%-20% [2] 3. **System Integrators**: Companies like Kunshan Intelligent and Lanjian Intelligent provide customized solutions based on industry logistics characteristics [2] Market Trends - Collaborations between technology, logistics leaders, and forklift manufacturers are becoming more frequent, indicating a clear trend towards automation and intelligence in logistics [3] - Notable partnerships include Anhui Heli's collaboration with Huawei for digital transformation and strategic agreements with major logistics companies like SF Express and JD Group [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group for their strong customer resources and hardware advantages, with a focus on companies like Zhongli Co., Kunshan Intelligent, and XianGong Intelligent for potential investment opportunities [7]
非银金融行业深度报告:财富管理系列报告之一—群雄逐鹿,财富管理新时代
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-06 14:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1]. Core Insights - The public fund advisory pilot program is expected to be a significant exploration in the transformation of China's wealth management market, with 60 institutions already qualified for the pilot. The transition from a "sell-side advisory" model to a "buy-side advisory" model is anticipated to enhance client engagement and asset appreciation [2]. - China's wealth management market is in a rapid development phase, akin to the U.S. in the 1980s, with a notable shift in asset allocation from cash and deposits to financial assets. The proportion of cash and deposits is projected to decline from 53% in 2012 to 44% by 2024, while investments in capital market products and overseas investments are increasing [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management: Client-Centric and Diverse Financial Services - Wealth management focuses on comprehensive financial planning centered around client needs, offering services such as cash management, debt management, risk management, insurance planning, investment portfolio management, retirement planning, and estate planning [11]. 2. Global Wealth Management Market: Origin in Europe, Development in the U.S., Future in Asia - Global resident wealth has grown from $117 trillion in 2000 to $454 trillion by the end of 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% [16]. - The U.S. wealth management market has matured over the past century, benefiting from a developed financial system and a client-centric approach to expanding product lines [47]. 3. China's Wealth Management Market: Continuous Growth in Resident Wealth - China's personal investable assets reached ¥278 trillion by the end of 2022, with projections to grow to ¥327 trillion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 14% from 2018 to 2024 [54]. - The high-net-worth population in China reached 3.16 million by the end of 2022, with an average CAGR of 18% from 2018 to 2022 [54]. 4. Competitive Landscape of China's Wealth Management - The wealth management sector in China is characterized by a diverse range of institutions, including banks, trusts, public and private funds, and internet wealth management platforms, with a total asset management scale of ¥155 trillion as of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [5].
财富管理系列报告之一:群雄逐鹿,财富管理新时代
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-06 13:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1]. Core Insights - The public fund advisory pilot program is expected to be a significant exploration in the transformation of China's wealth management market, with 60 institutions already qualified for the pilot. The transition from a "sell-side advisory" model to a "buy-side advisory" model is anticipated to enhance client engagement and asset appreciation [2]. - China's wealth management market is in a rapid development phase, akin to the U.S. in the 1980s, with a notable shift in asset allocation from cash and deposits to financial assets. The proportion of cash and deposits is projected to decline from 53% in 2012 to 44% by 2024, while investments in capital market products are expected to rise [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management: Client-Centric and Diverse Financial Services - Wealth management focuses on comprehensive financial planning centered around client needs, offering services such as cash management, debt management, risk management, insurance planning, investment portfolio management, retirement planning, and estate planning [11]. 2. Global Wealth Management Market: Origin in Europe, Development in the U.S., Future in Asia - Global resident wealth has grown from $117 trillion in 2000 to $454 trillion by the end of 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%. The U.S. wealth management market has matured over the past century, benefiting from a robust financial system and a client-centric approach [5][16]. 3. China's Wealth Management Market: Continuous Growth in Resident Wealth - China's personal investable assets reached ¥278 trillion by the end of 2022, with projections to grow to ¥327 trillion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 14% from 2018 to 2024. The high-net-worth population in China reached 3.16 million by the end of 2022, with an 18% CAGR from 2018 to 2022 [54][55]. 4. Competitive Landscape of China's Wealth Management - The wealth management sector in China is characterized by a diverse range of institutions, including banks, trusts, public and private funds, and internet wealth management platforms. The asset management scale of these institutions reached ¥155 trillion by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [5][54]. 5. Public Fund Advisory Pilot as a Key Transformation - The public fund advisory pilot program is a crucial step in the transformation of China's wealth management market, with the potential to shift the focus from sales-driven models to client-centric advisory services [2][5].
与药师帮签署战略合作协议,越疆机器人率先落地医药应用场景
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-06 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The strategic cooperation agreement signed between the company and Yaoshi Bang aims to explore the application of intelligent robots in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on areas such as drug research, storage, distribution, retail, and medication services [2] - The company has demonstrated strong generalization capabilities in its robots, which can effectively operate in the pharmaceutical environment, handling diverse drug specifications and performing tasks such as sorting and transporting medications [3] - The increasing deployment of humanoid robots in various industries, including automotive and energy, is expected to accelerate their mass production and commercialization [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 4.96 billion, 6.73 billion, and 8.97 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 46, 34, and 25 [5] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be a loss of 43.49 million, turning positive in 2026 with a profit of 1.15 million and reaching 34.54 million in 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 0.11 in 2025 to a profit of 0.09 in 2027 [5]
越疆(02432):与药师帮签署战略合作协议,越疆机器人率先落地医药应用场景
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-06 09:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The strategic cooperation agreement between the company and Yaoshi Bang aims to explore the application of intelligent robots in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on areas such as research, warehousing, distribution, retail, and medication services [2] - The company has demonstrated strong generalization capabilities in its robots, which can adapt to various tasks in the pharmaceutical environment, including sorting and transporting medications [3] - The increasing deployment of humanoid robots in various industries is expected to accelerate their mass production and commercialization [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 4.96 billion, 6.73 billion, and 8.97 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 46, 34, and 25 [5] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be a loss of 43.49 million, with a turnaround expected in 2026, achieving a profit of 1.15 million, and further increasing to 34.54 million in 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 0.11 in 2025 to a profit of 0.09 in 2027 [5]