证券研究报告 汽车智能化6月投资策略 价格战干扰期，底部布局优质标的 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年5月28日 核心结论 2 ◼ 为何我们建议All in汽车智能化？1）汽车智能化本质是一场出行革命。【L3智能化帮助车企卖车】- 【 L4Robotaxi实现车企软件收费】-【自主品牌实现全球崛起】是汽车智能化三部曲。2）2025年汽车智能 化或是拐点之年！城市NOA（L3智能化核心体验）普及是推动智能化成为消费者购车前三考虑因素的力量。 目前我们根据【引领车企新车周期—终端草根调研—爆款车型验证】体系将紧密跟踪【L3智能化渗透率】 2025-2027年从10%-50%-80%+的变化过程。3）汽车智能化是淘汰赛模式，强者恒强。整车未来或分为 三类公司： B端Robotaxi运营+ C端个性化品牌+整车高端制造。零部件或分为两类公司：模块化供应商+单 一品类供应商。 ◼ 5月智能化总结：关键词或是价格战开启。1）关于价格战：比亚迪经过4-5月份市场检验其智驾版本车型需 求不及预期且 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has fully recognized impairment losses totaling 2.8 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, which includes 1.3 billion yuan for credit impairment and 1.5 billion yuan for inventory write-downs, indicating that the risk is well-managed [3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in cash flow as downstream production resumes, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow noted in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [3] - The company is projected to benefit from increased overseas revenue, enhancing its overall profitability and operational performance [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to be 16.628 billion yuan in 2023, with a decline of 28.71% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 13.2 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 20.1 billion yuan by 2027 [1][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop to 286.1 million yuan in 2024, but rebound to 1.057 billion yuan in 2025, reaching 2.228 billion yuan by 2027 [1][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.18 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.42 yuan by 2027 [1][10] Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion - The company has seen a significant increase in transactions with its strategic partner, Ningde, with Q1 2025 transactions reaching 2.1 billion yuan, expected to total 8.5 billion yuan for the year [3] - The company is poised to benefit from Ningde's IPO proceeds, which will primarily fund capacity expansion in Hungary, enhancing the company's market position in Europe [3] - The company is expanding its overseas customer base, with high-margin orders from major automotive manufacturers in Europe and North America, which are expected to improve cash flow and profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has fully recognized impairment losses totaling 2.8 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, with a significant portion related to credit and inventory [3] - The company is expected to benefit from increased overseas revenue, leading to improved overall profitability and operational conditions [3] - The first quarter of 2025 has shown a significant recovery in operating cash flow, indicating a positive trend [3] - The company has established a strong relationship with Ningde Times, with expected transaction volumes reaching 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a recovery to pre-2021 levels [8] - The report highlights the company's expansion into overseas markets, with high-margin clients and favorable cash flow conditions [8] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 13.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.06 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant recovery from previous years [1] - The report forecasts a dynamic P/E ratio of 30.75 for 2025, decreasing to 14.59 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [1][9]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-05-28 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [宏观量化经济指数周报 Table_MacroStrategy] 20250525：存款"降息"或加剧银行负债端压力 若 MLF 连续加量投放，对冲"负债荒"压力，那么同业存单利率的上行 空间或有限。 海外周报 20250525：流动性与财政可持续性担忧推动 10 年期美债利率 上破 4.5% 核心观点：本周美日长债拍卖结果显示需求疲软，对美债流动性和美国财 政状况可持续性的担忧令市场一度遭遇"股债汇"三杀，10 年期美债利 率上至 4.51%，美元指数再度下破 100，美股大跌；黄金在特朗普威胁对 欧盟加征 50%关税的推动下大涨 4.8%。在中美超预期的关税谈判结果出 炉后，本周海外分析师集体上修全年美国 GDP 增长预期，下修 CPI 通胀 预期，但维持美联储 Q3 首次降息，全年降息 2 次的预期不变。向前看， 特朗普《大美丽法案》本周已于众议院获得通过，后续在参议院通过的阻 力预计较小，而法案中的减税与提高债务上限相关条款或进一步加剧市 场对美国财政状况的担忧程度。 风险提示：特朗普政策超预期； ...

Group 1: Capital Market News - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a special government bond for capital injection into central financial institutions, with a total face value of 105 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.57%[9] - The Ministry of Commerce supports qualified economic development zones in listing and financing, with these zones contributing 16.9 trillion yuan to GDP in 2024, accounting for over 23% of national foreign investment and trade[10] - The North Exchange A-share component has 266 companies with an average market capitalization of 2.968 billion yuan, and the trading volume reached 25.368 billion yuan, up 5.26% from the previous trading day[15] Group 2: Industry News - The digital transformation plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry aims for over 85% of key processes to be CNC controlled by 2027, with a complete data system established by 2030[14] - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.184%[15] - The top gainers in the North Exchange included Huaxi Technology, Green Heng Technology, and Ruiqi Intelligent Manufacturing, with increases of 10.80%, 9.85%, and 8.90% respectively[16] Group 3: Company Announcements - Gobi Jia reported a change in shareholding, with a major shareholder's stake decreasing from 14.16% to 13.83% due to stock incentive plan adjustments[24] - Baijia Technology announced a planned reduction of shares by a major shareholder, accounting for 2% of total shares[25] - Shunyu Precision Engineering reported a reduction in shares by a major shareholder, decreasing their combined holding from 23.27% to 22.79%[26] Group 4: Risk Warnings - Risks include individual stock earnings falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, increased trade friction, and policy outcomes not meeting expectations[28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - For FY2025Q4, total revenue reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year [12][21] - The report anticipates continued recovery in EBITA margins, with Non-GAAP net profit forecasts adjusted for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Revenue Performance - The revenue from Taobao and Tmall increased by 8.7% to RMB 1013.69 billion, with customer management revenue growing by 11.8% to RMB 710.8 billion [19][17] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew significantly, driven by strong demand for AI-related services, while some core businesses underperformed [21][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 22.3% increase in revenue, primarily due to strong cross-border business performance [22] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [19] - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 171.16 billion for FY2026 and RMB 188.58 billion for FY2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 12 and 11 times [35] AI and Technology Investments - The company is focusing on leveraging AI technology to enhance user experience and drive business efficiency [20][30] - AI-related product revenue has shown triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong market adoption [29] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expected growth in GMV and accelerated monetization processes, alongside ongoing share buybacks and dividends [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - Revenue for FY2025Q4 reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations [12] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus [12] Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for FY2025Q4 shows significant growth in various segments: - Taobao and Tmall business revenue increased by 8.7% to RMB 101.37 billion [17] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% to RMB 33.58 billion, driven by strong cross-border business performance [22] - Local life services revenue rose by 10.3% to RMB 16.13 billion, aided by order growth from Gaode and Ele.me [25] - Alibaba Cloud revenue increased by 17.7% to RMB 30.13 billion, benefiting from strong AI-related demand [29] - The entertainment segment (Big Entertainment) reported revenue of RMB 5.55 billion, a 12% increase [30] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% due to increased investments in user experience and AI technology [19] - The overall EBITA margin is expected to remain in a recovery phase, with adjustments made to future Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Future Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 to RMB 171.16 billion and RMB 188.58 billion, respectively, with an expected Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 210.31 billion for FY2028 [35] - Corresponding P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 12, 11, and 10 times [35] Market Positioning - The company is positioned favorably compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16.09 for FY2025, indicating it is relatively cheaper than similar companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The "CMG World Robot Competition - Mecha Fighting Arena" concluded on May 25, showcasing the advancements in humanoid robotics, particularly the Yushu G1 robot's combat capabilities [1][14]. - The Yushu G1 demonstrated exceptional motion control, successfully executing complex fighting maneuvers such as side kicks, knee strikes, and combination punches, highlighting its high level of anthropomorphism and fluidity in movement [1][16]. - The humanoid robot's balance and recovery abilities were notably enhanced, allowing it to maintain an upright posture after being struck and to smoothly transition from a fallen position back to standing [2][20]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The "CMG World Robot Competition" featured four teams competing with the Yushu G1 robots, which were controlled via manual, voice, and motion-sensing methods [1][14]. Motion Control Capabilities - The Yushu G1 exhibited advanced motion control, capable of performing various high-difficulty combat actions, with all movements executed through remote control based on pre-trained skills [1][16]. Software Development - The robot's skill acquisition involved two pre-training methods: real data from professional fighters and video data for imitation learning, enhancing its combat skills [3][25]. - The robot's perception system quickly locates opponents and generates executable strategies based on learned training, showcasing significant advancements in its motion control model [29]. Hardware Performance - The Yushu G1 is equipped with high-performance motors and lightweight materials, which enhance its agility and movement capabilities [4][32][33]. - The robot's self-developed joint motors provide excellent output capabilities, with a maximum torque of 120 N·m at critical joints, significantly improving its performance [32]. Industry Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate its commercialization, with Yushu Technology projected to achieve a shipment of over 1,000 units by 2025 [5][35]. - The current development pace of hardware and motion control is outpacing that of the large model (brain) aspect, indicating a need for further advancements in generalization capabilities for broader task execution [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zhongda Lide, Changsheng Bearing, Aobi Zhongguang, and Huarui Precision, while suggesting attention to Shoucheng Holdings, Wolong Electric Drive, Lingyun Light, and Hanwei Technology [6][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance and shareholder returns, reflecting strong growth prospects and operational performance [7]. - The retail business has shown significant growth, leading to an upward revision of the annual revenue growth forecast from 25% to a range of 25% to 30% [7]. - The company aims to open 500 new stores in 2025, supporting its expansion strategy [7]. - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.63 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.46 billion RMB respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.67 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 106.19% [1]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 737.14 million RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 651.42% [1]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.78 RMB, with a projected P/E ratio of 43.78 [1]. - The company’s overall occupancy rate (OCC) for Q1 was 70.2%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 418 RMB [7]. - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the retail business in Q1 reached 845 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 70.9% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is approaching an overseas turning point, with accelerated growth in the seating segment. The integration of Grammer is showing signs of improvement, and the company's performance is expected to accelerate in the coming years [7][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Integration of Grammer and Overseas Performance - The company completed the acquisition of Grammer, a century-old automotive interior giant, and has been advancing integration efforts. The integration faced challenges due to global pandemic impacts, chip shortages, and inflation, which affected Grammer's performance [12][19]. - In 2024, the company intensified integration measures, including divesting the underperforming TMD subsidiary in North America and restructuring operations in Europe to enhance efficiency [28][30]. - The overseas performance of Grammer is showing signs of recovery, with significant improvements noted in Q1 2025 [27][34]. 2. Accelerated Growth in Passenger Car Seats - The domestic market for passenger car seats exceeds 100 billion yuan, driven by consumer upgrades and increasing demand for comfort and safety features [41][48]. - The company has a strong order backlog for passenger car seats, with established relationships with major manufacturers such as NIO, Li Auto, and BMW, which supports future growth [58]. - The employee stock ownership plan implemented in April 2025 is expected to enhance the profitability of the seating business [7][12]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts net profits of 646.47 million yuan, 1.09672 billion yuan, and 1.38364 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.51 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 1.09 yuan [1][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.10, 15.98, and 12.66, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing domestic market expansion and the shift towards domestic alternatives in the seating industry [1][7].