证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 8月第2周乘用车环比+14.4%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.8.18-2025.8.24 2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：八月第二周交强险42.9万辆，环比上周/上月周度+14.4%/+10.5%。 ➢ 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ商用载货车(+6.2%) > SW乘用车(+4.9%) >SW汽车零部 件(+4.8%) >SW汽车（+4.7%）> SW商用载客车(+2.74%) >SW摩托车及其他 (+2.71%) 。本周已覆盖标的蔚来-SW，松原安全，拓普集团，小鹏汽车-W，福耀玻 璃涨幅前五。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发华阳集团、松原安全、小鹏汽车、零跑汽车、继峰股份、北 汽蓝谷中报点评，外发客车8月月报。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）小鹏发布中报，Q2营收182.7亿元，同比增长125.3%，环比 增长15.6%；毛利率为17.3%，较去年同期增长3.3pct，环比增长1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi AppTec (02268.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.701 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.2%. The adjusted net profit (excluding interest income and expenses) was 733 million yuan, up 69.6% year-on-year [7] - The company has a strong order backlog, with total unfulfilled orders amounting to 1.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%. The North American region accounts for more than half of the unfulfilled orders, with new contract amounts growing by 48.4% [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with significant capital expenditures planned, including 1.56 billion yuan in 2025 and over 7 billion yuan by 2029. This expansion aims to support future growth and meet increasing demand [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4.052 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.305 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.68% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.070 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.758 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 1.174 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.908 billion yuan in 2027, indicating robust operational performance [1] Market Position - The company's market share is expected to increase to 22.2% by H1 2025, driven by a growing customer base and expanding project pipeline [7] - The company has established a strong presence in the North American market, which is anticipated to continue outpacing growth in other regions [7] Capital Expenditure - The company plans to invest significantly in capital expenditures, with 15.6 billion yuan expected in 2025 to enhance domestic and international production capacity [7] - New production facilities are set to come online, including a new park in Singapore expected to achieve GMP certification by 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvements in operational efficiency, cash flow, and dividend logic continues to be fulfilled [7] - The company's main business revenue for H1 2025 was HKD 14.304 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.207 billion, down 10% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights a decline in construction revenue and an increase in impairment losses and foreign exchange losses impacting net profit [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is HKD 32.495 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.92% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is projected at HKD 4.429 billion, a decrease of 3.75% year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is HKD 0.72, with a P/E ratio of 5.94 [1] - The company’s cash flow has improved, with a mid-year dividend payout ratio increasing by 7 percentage points to 42% [7] - The company’s construction revenue for H1 2025 was HKD 1.844 billion, down 49% year-on-year, while operational revenue increased by 5% to HKD 9.943 billion [7] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 26.292 billion and a price-to-book ratio of 0.51 [5] Operational Highlights - The environmental energy segment contributed HKD 5.142 billion in operational revenue for H1 2025, a 6% increase [7] - The company has implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, leading to a 12% increase in net profit contribution from the environmental energy segment [7] - The company is actively exploring new business opportunities, including projects in Uzbekistan and Thailand [7]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.09%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.89%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for August is at 50.08%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, and the demand index is at 49.89%, also down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[7] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.70%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week, indicating continued expansion of liquidity in August[11] - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion CNY MLF operation on August 25, with a net liquidity injection of 3,000 billion CNY for the month, doubling the net injection from July[13] - Total mid-term and short-term liquidity net injection for August is 6,000 billion CNY, which is twice the net injection scale of July[13] Industrial and Consumer Trends - Industrial production shows marginal recovery, with the operating rate for automotive tires increasing by 1.67 percentage points for full steel tires and 1.06 percentage points for semi-steel tires[14] - Passenger vehicle retail sales for the week ending August 17 averaged 59,068 units per day, a year-on-year increase of 3,867 units, with a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year[20] - The real estate market shows a 15.1% year-on-year decline in sales area for 30 major cities, although the decline has narrowed compared to July[7] Export Performance - High-frequency data indicates that cargo throughput at monitored ports remains high, suggesting strong resilience in exports for August[7] - South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of August is at 7.60%, indicating a recovery compared to July[31] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.12 CNY/kg, down 0.08 CNY/kg from last week, which may affect the CPI for August[37] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 66.93 USD/barrel, up 0.71 USD/barrel from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures settled at 3,385.06 USD/ounce, down 10.50 USD/ounce[37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a focus on increasing market share despite a challenging market environment [2][3] - The company achieved revenue of 7.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [10] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its standardized services and cost-effective products, leading to sustained growth in market share [3] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 13.606 billion yuan in 2023, 14.759 billion yuan in 2024, 16.284 billion yuan in 2025, 17.926 billion yuan in 2026, and 19.658 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.67%, 8.47%, 10.34%, 10.08%, and 9.66% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 6.703 billion yuan in 2023, 483.79 million yuan in 2024, 545.87 million yuan in 2025, 653.23 million yuan in 2026, and 747.03 million yuan in 2027, with significant fluctuations in growth rates [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.2%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in consumer preference towards cost-effective products [4] Market Expansion and User Growth - The company expanded its store network to 7,205 locations by June 30, 2025, a net increase of 331 stores from the beginning of the year, with over 60% of new stores located in second-tier and lower-tier cities [10] - The total number of transaction users reached 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, maintaining a user satisfaction rate of 95% and a repurchase rate of 64% [10] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 7.53 billion yuan and 8.60 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 9.53 billion yuan [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable long-term growth outlook, with a price-to-earnings ratio projected at 21, 18, and 16 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals prices are expected to strengthen due to dovish signals from Powell, with a focus on employment data and potential interest rate cuts [1][4][28] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.33% from August 18 to August 22, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [15] - The small metals sector increased by 10.53%, while industrial metals fell by 1.16% during the same period [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 22, LME copper closed at $9,797/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥78,690/ton, down 0.47% [32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,622/ton, up 0.73%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,630/ton, down 0.67% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $2,806/ton, up 0.32%, while SHFE zinc was ¥22,275/ton, down 1.02% [39] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $33,845/ton, up 0.70%, and SHFE tin at ¥265,930/ton, down 0.33% [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,417.20/oz, up 1.05%, while SHFE gold was at ¥773.40/g, down 0.31% [52] - The report indicates that precious metals are expected to strengthen following Powell's dovish remarks [4][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the sustained performance of the engineering machinery and oil service equipment sectors, driven by domestic and international demand cycles [2][3] - The PCB equipment sector is expected to benefit from high demand in downstream applications, particularly in AI computing servers, leading to significant growth opportunities [4][19] Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Domestic excavator sales reached 72,943 units from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, while loader sales were 40,171 units, up 20.4% [2] - The report anticipates a 2-3 year upward cycle in domestic demand, supported by replacement logic and improved funding [2] - Key companies in this sector include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, with Sany reporting a revenue of 44.78 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 14.6% increase year-on-year [2] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is benefiting from high demand in the Middle East, with projected investments in energy projects reaching $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 [3] - Key players like Jereh and Neway are expected to see significant revenue growth, with Jereh's revenue growth projected at 49% in Q2 2025 [3] - The Middle East market for oil service equipment is estimated to be worth at least $10 billion, indicating substantial growth potential for Chinese companies [3] PCB Equipment - The PCB market is projected to grow significantly due to the surge in AI computing server demand, with the PCB downstream market expected to reach 10.916 billion yuan in 2024, a 33% increase year-on-year [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end HDI boards, with a projected growth rate of 40.2% for boards with 18 layers or more in 2024 [4][20] - Major players in the PCB equipment sector include Dazhu CNC and Xinqiao Technology, with Dazhu reporting a net profit of 263 million yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 83.82% year-on-year [5][21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the PCB production process, particularly in drilling, exposure, and electroplating segments, highlighting companies like Dazhu CNC and Eastway Technology [6][21] - For engineering machinery, companies such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG are highlighted as key beneficiaries of upcoming large-scale infrastructure projects [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company's semiconductor layout has shown initial success, while the special glass segment is yet to take off [1] - The company has experienced a decline in overall business, particularly in the sales of nano-microcrystalline glass and special functional glass, which needs improvement [7] - The optical glass segment has seen significant revenue growth, with a 17.19% increase year-on-year, and an improvement in gross margin [7] - The company is expanding into the semiconductor industry, leveraging its optical glass as a foundational material for emerging applications [7] - Research and development efforts are being intensified, with significant progress in semiconductor applications and the establishment of a new subsidiary to enhance R&D capabilities [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 631.33 million and 832.19 million respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 74.13 million and 127.19 million [1][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.51 in 2025 and 0.88 in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 87.80 and 51.17 respectively [1][8] - The company has a total market capitalization of 6,508.35 million and a circulating A-share market value of 6,300.57 million [5]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 2.59 trillion CNY, an increase of 485.6 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% during the week, with significant gains in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and North Exchange[11] Performance by Index - The Sci-Tech 50 Index led with a weekly increase of 13%, while the North Exchange 50 Index rose by 8%[11] - The ChiNext Index and the Growth Index both saw increases of 5.85% and 4.77%, respectively[11] Market Sentiment - The number of stocks rising in the A-share market was 4,034, with 123 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 2 stocks hit the limit down[23] - The margin trading balance increased to nearly 2.15 trillion CNY, indicating positive market sentiment[28] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included consumer electronics and industrial automation, while weak sectors were primarily in traditional manufacturing[30][32] - The report highlights the importance of domestic consumption and technological self-reliance as key drivers for future growth[45] Investment Strategy - The focus for 2025 will be on enhancing domestic circulation, promoting technological independence, and expanding international openness[45] - Specific areas of interest include AI applications, new energy technologies, and cross-border e-commerce[45] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in industry fundamentals[48]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - Ugreen Technology is a leading player in the cross-border digital accessories market, with strong growth potential driven by NAS product launches and overseas expansion [8]. - The company's overseas revenue is expected to grow by 46% in 2024, accounting for 57% of total revenue, indicating a significant shift towards international markets [8]. - The NAS product line is projected to become a crucial growth driver, with the global consumer NAS market expected to reach $6.1 billion in 2024 and grow at an annual rate of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030 [8][78]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ugreen Technology focuses on five main product categories: charging, transmission, audio-video, storage, and mobile peripherals, with NAS products expected to accelerate growth [14]. - The company has established its own brand "Ugreen" and has seen overseas revenue increase significantly since its international expansion began in 2014 [8][14]. Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 6.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.42% from 2021 to 2024 [23]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 462.28 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.29% [1][23]. Channel Structure - Overseas revenue has become a major growth driver, increasing from 46% of total revenue in 2021 to 57% in 2024 [44]. - The company relies heavily on platforms like Amazon for its overseas sales, which accounted for 65% of international revenue in 2023 [58]. NAS Products - NAS is anticipated to become a significant growth curve for the company, with the market demand expected to rise due to increasing digitalization and data security needs [67]. - The company plans to introduce AI capabilities in its NAS products, enhancing their appeal and functionality [77]. Investment Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 637.62 million yuan in 2025, 835.80 million yuan in 2026, and 1,038.22 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 37.93%, 31.08%, and 24.22% respectively [1][8].