Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [61]. Core Views - October sales figures for the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations across production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports, with significant year-on-year growth [5][18]. - The overall industry inventory increased slightly, remaining at a reasonable level, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8 [19]. - The structural performance showed that engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in October, with a notable increase in natural gas heavy truck sales and penetration rates [24][27]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In October, the production of heavy trucks reached 104,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 78.4% and 2.6% respectively [5]. - Wholesale sales were 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [2][5]. - Terminal sales totaled 70,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 56.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5][15]. - Exports amounted to 33,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 43.8% and a month-on-month increase of 4.8% [5][18]. - The total inventory in the industry increased by 0.09 million units, with a current total of 115,000 units [19]. Market Structure - In terms of vehicle types, engineering vehicles had a terminal sales volume of 7,400 units, with year-on-year growth of 63.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.9% [24]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3 percentage points [27]. Competitive Landscape - In the wholesale market, the market shares for major manufacturers in October were as follows: Dongfeng (22.5%), Heavy Truck (26.5%), and Foton (13.1%), with Foton showing the largest year-on-year increase [32]. - In the terminal market, the market shares were: Dongfeng (17.9%), Heavy Truck (17.9%), and Foton (13.8%), with Foton showing a significant year-on-year increase [35]. - For exports, Heavy Truck led with a market share of 45.8%, followed by Dongfeng (9.3%) and Foton (5.4%) [37]. Engine Market - The engine market share in October was led by Weichai with 20.5%, followed by Cummins (17.1%) and Xichai (14.7%) [46]. - Weichai's terminal supply volume was 14,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 64.7% [51].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Luxin Technology (688018), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Luxin Technology is positioned as a leading AIoT solution provider, focusing on chip design and overall solutions in the IoT sector. The company aims to expand its product lines and applications, particularly in smart home and AI edge computing markets, which are expected to drive significant growth [9][14]. - The company anticipates substantial revenue growth, projecting total revenues of 20.07 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.04% increase year-over-year, and further growth in subsequent years [1][23]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Luxin Technology specializes in "connection + processing" for AIoT solutions, having launched its first chip in 2013 and achieving over 1 billion units shipped by September 2023. The company has expanded its product lines from smart home applications to industrial control and AI toys [14][9]. Financial Analysis - The company reported total revenue of 14.33 billion yuan in 2023, a 12.74% increase from the previous year. The projected revenues for 2024 and beyond are 20.07 billion yuan and 26.79 billion yuan for 2025, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][23][26]. Market Dynamics - The global smart home market is expected to reach 154.4 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.67% from 2024 to 2028. Luxin's strategic positioning in this market is expected to support its business growth [36][38]. Product Development - Luxin is actively expanding its chip product lines, including Wi-Fi 6, Bluetooth, and Thread/Zigbee technologies, while enhancing edge AI capabilities. The company is also developing a one-stop AI development kit, EchoEar, to facilitate smart home applications [40][41]. AI Edge Opportunities - The AI toy market presents new opportunities for Luxin, with products integrating AI capabilities for educational and companionship purposes. The market for AI toys is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing acceptance of AI technologies [46][48]. Revenue Projections - The report forecasts that Luxin will achieve revenues of 26.79 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits of 5.42 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48 times [1][23].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll data have significantly reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December, with a likelihood of a pause rather than a cancellation of rate cuts [1][12][14] - The report suggests that the overall economic pressure is increasing, with the ECI supply index at 49.94% and the demand index at 49.87%, indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [11][12] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with a macro timing model scoring -5, indicating a high probability of adjustment for the entire A-share index [2][10] - The report highlights that small-cap stocks may perform relatively better, while the sentiment in the small-cap sector has been negatively impacted by the suspension of high-profile stocks [2][10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the Chinese economy's main theme for 2025 as responding to changes, with external factors like fluctuating tariffs and internal factors such as asset revaluation and investment growth turning negative [3][4][15] - It emphasizes five key areas for 2026: policy continuity, AI-driven supply changes, consumer subsidy adjustments, asset liability repair, and price stability through anti-involution measures, projecting a GDP growth rate of around 4.9% [4][15] Fixed Income - The report notes that the yield on 10-year government bonds has shown slight upward movement, indicating a cautious market outlook as investors await year-end allocation opportunities [5][16][18] - It highlights that the issuance of green bonds has decreased, with a total issuance of approximately 24.619 billion yuan this week, down from the previous week [5][6]

Core Insights - The report suggests that short-term risk factors for the Hong Kong stock market are decreasing, but a confirmation of the rebound requires catalysts. The current position is considered attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is fluctuating, which has led to a relatively weak performance in overseas markets represented by US stocks. An increase in rate cut expectations could benefit the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December may refocus market attention on policy, which has not yet been priced in [1] - The narrative surrounding the AI technology bubble in US markets has weakened, leading to significant corrections in Hong Kong's tech sector, which now presents an attractive allocation opportunity [1] - Despite short-term macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remaining unresolved, a balanced allocation strategy is still recommended, with relative strength in dividends [1] Market Performance - In the past week, both developed and emerging markets experienced declines, with emerging markets down 3.7% and developed markets down 2.3% [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 7.2%, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 5.1%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect dropped by 5.3%. All sectors showed varying degrees of decline, with southbound funds primarily flowing into non-essential consumer sectors and out of the energy sector [4] US Market Analysis - The Nasdaq Composite led the decline in US markets with a drop of 2.7%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell by 1.9%. The healthcare and consumer staples sectors outperformed, while energy and information technology sectors lagged [1] - The non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with job additions significantly exceeding expectations at 119,000, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. Average hourly wages increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1][2] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of profits from AI projects have resurfaced, despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, leading to a broader risk-off sentiment in the tech sector [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance remains generally hawkish, with most members expressing reservations about a December rate cut. However, Vice Chairman Williams indicated some room for a rate cut due to increased downside risks to employment and alleviated inflationary pressures, causing the probability of a December rate cut to rise from 33% to 60% [2][3] Investment Trends - The report highlights a significant net inflow into global stock ETFs amounting to $101.61 billion, with the US stock ETFs seeing the largest inflow of $26.71 billion. Emerging markets, particularly Chinese stock ETFs, also saw notable inflows [7][39] - In terms of sector performance, the top three sectors for net inflows were materials, technology, and healthcare, while financials, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors experienced the largest outflows [8][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a strong same-store revenue growth of 28% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.8 billion yuan, exceeding the company's guidance of 25-28% [7] - The overseas segment showed significant growth, with overseas revenue increasing by 28.6% year-on-year, and the company plans to slow down the opening of new stores to focus on quality [7] - The TOP TOY division experienced remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 111.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue growth to be in the range of 25-30%, with same-store growth in both China and the U.S. projected to accelerate [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 11,473 million yuan, 2024A: 16,994 million yuan, 2025E: 21,305 million yuan, 2026E: 25,961 million yuan, and 2027E: 30,963 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.76%, 48.12%, 25.37%, 21.85%, and 19.27% respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 2,901 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.61% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.83 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 18.58 based on the latest diluted earnings [1]

Macro Strategy - The economic total faces increasing downward pressure, with weak consumer and export performance continuing due to base effects [1][18] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of November non-farm data have led to a significant reduction in market expectations for a rate cut in December [19][20] - It is anticipated that the Fed will likely pause rate cuts in December, but this pause is seen as a "skip" rather than a cancellation, with a high probability of a rate cut in January [20][21] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with limited adjustment space, while small-cap stocks may perform relatively better [2][22] - The overall market sentiment has been negatively impacted by the suspension of high-profile stocks, leading to an increase in daily limit-down stocks [2] - There are several sectors to watch during the market adjustment, including the computing power sector, which has shown signs of rebound [2][22] Fixed Income - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose from 1.8050% to 1.8125% during the week, indicating a slight upward trend in interest rates [5][22] - The issuance of green bonds decreased significantly, with 26 new green bonds issued totaling approximately 24.619 billion yuan, down 44.489 billion yuan from the previous week [5] - The market is currently in a cautious state regarding the potential for year-end allocation opportunities in the bond market [22] Company Analysis - Baidu Group is expected to benefit from AI business commercialization, with adjusted non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 lowered to 19.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Wangfujing's revenue decline has narrowed, and the company is expected to benefit from the duty-free policy, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 1.80 billion, 4.28 billion, and 6.03 billion yuan [8] - Lenovo Group's FY2026-2028 net profit forecasts have been raised to 1.87 billion, 2.09 billion, and 2.33 billion USD, driven by AI-related business growth [9] - Ctrip Group is expected to see an increase in international business share and profit margins as it continues to expand overseas [9] - Kuaishou's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 20.6 billion, 22.9 billion, and 25.2 billion yuan [14] - JD Group maintains strong competitive advantages in the e-commerce sector, with non-GAAP EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 9.0, 12.8, and 15.7 yuan [15] - Pinduoduo's performance exceeded expectations, with non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 100.4 billion, 126.5 billion, and 152.4 billion yuan [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI infrastructure capabilities are leading, and the company is expected to see significant commercialization opportunities in its AI business [1][8] - The company's AI cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, driven by strong demand for AI solutions and the advantages of its full-stack AI capabilities [7][8] - Baidu's AI native marketing services are increasingly penetrating traditional advertising, contributing to revenue growth [7][8] - The autonomous driving business is accelerating its globalization, which is anticipated to become a new growth curve for the company [7][8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2023: 134,598 million - 2024: 133,125 million - 2025: 129,495 million - 2026: 136,140 million - 2027: 142,409 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be 8.83% in 2023, -1.09% in 2024, -2.73% in 2025, 5.13% in 2026, and 4.60% in 2027 [1][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 20,315 million - 2024: 23,760 million - 2025: 21,391 million - 2026: 18,840 million - 2027: 21,682 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 168.75% in 2023, 16.96% in 2024, -9.97% in 2025, -11.93% in 2026, and 15.08% in 2027 [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 28,747 million - 2024: 27,002 million - 2025: 19,430 million - 2026: 21,714 million - 2027: 24,742 million - Year-on-year growth rates for Non-GAAP net profit are expected to be 39.01% in 2023, -6.07% in 2024, -28.04% in 2025, 11.76% in 2026, and 13.95% in 2027 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of Baidu's stock is 111.80 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 226,525.83 million HKD [5][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13.92 for the current year and 11.91 for the next year [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 6.75% during the week of November 17-21, ranking low among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment saw significant price drops due to a combination of declining macroeconomic expectations and seasonal demand weakness [1][14] - The report emphasizes that while industrial metals are currently under pressure, the overall macroeconomic environment remains supportive for a bullish outlook in the long term, contingent on demand recovery [1][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming, down 6.75% [14] - Among sub-sectors, industrial metals dropped 8.28%, while precious metals fell 3.32% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices fell with LME copper at $10,778/ton (-0.63%) and SHFE copper at ¥85,660/ton (-1.43%). Supply concerns arose from a mining accident in Congo, while demand showed no significant improvement [2][29] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,808/ton (-1.77%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,340/ton (-2.29%). The market is affected by geopolitical tensions and weak domestic demand [3][36] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices decreased to $2,992/ton (-0.75%), with LME inventories rising significantly [37] - **Tin**: Prices remained stable with LME tin at $36,970/ton (+0.30%), amid tightening supply signals [40] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,062.80/oz (-0.53%) and SHFE gold at ¥926.94/g (-2.75%). The ADP employment data did not indicate a strong recovery in the labor market, contributing to price weakness [4][43] - The report suggests that despite short-term pressures, precious metals remain within a macro bullish framework, with attention needed on potential liquidity risks from rising Japanese bond yields [4][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the environmental protection industry, particularly highlighting the strategic moves of specific firms like High Energy Environment and Longjing Environmental Protection [1][16][21]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the implementation of carbon emission quota schemes for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which is expected to enhance the demand for carbon monitoring and management solutions [6][12]. - It highlights the strategic acquisitions by High Energy Environment in the mining sector, which are anticipated to open new growth avenues through resource collaboration [13][16]. - Longjing Environmental Protection is noted for its capital increase from Zijin Mining, which is expected to accelerate its growth in green electricity and energy storage sectors [19][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued carbon emission quota plans for 2024 and 2025 for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, establishing a comprehensive carbon quota system [8][9]. - The report discusses the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 61.32% and a penetration rate of 18.02% [29]. Company Specifics - High Energy Environment is strategically advancing into the mining sector, acquiring stakes in three mining companies, which is expected to enhance its resource collaboration and open a second growth curve [13][16]. - Longjing Environmental Protection has received a cash injection from Zijin Mining through a private placement, which is expected to enhance its financial structure and support growth in its green energy and storage segments [19][20][21]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the solid waste sector is experiencing improved cash flow and profitability, with a notable increase in free cash flow and dividend payouts expected [23][24]. - The water service sector is projected to see significant improvements in cash flow and dividend potential, with ongoing price reforms expected to enhance revenue stability [26][28]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards market-oriented operations in the water sector, with companies like Yuehai Investment and Hongcheng Environment expected to maintain high dividend payouts [26][28]. - The sanitation equipment market is witnessing a robust increase in new energy vehicle sales, indicating a growing trend towards sustainable practices in waste management [29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for the recommended companies Yutong and King Long [3][4]. Core Insights - The bus industry is expected to benefit from China's automotive manufacturing becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions potentially recreating a market equivalent to China within 3-5 years [2]. - The domestic market has seen a recovery in demand, with expectations for a year-end surge in sales driven by tourism recovery and bus replacement needs [2]. - The absence of price wars in the domestic market is anticipated to support profitability, alongside a favorable oligopoly market structure and decreasing lithium carbonate costs [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In October 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China was 50,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 13.2% and month-on-month decline of 8.8% [9][10]. - The wholesale volume for the same month was also 50,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.96% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [9][10]. - The terminal sales for buses reached 47,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 8.73% but a month-on-month decline of 17.84% [14]. Company Performance - Yutong is recognized as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, with projected net profits of 4.63 billion, 5.52 billion, and 6.68 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 19%, and 21% respectively [4]. - King Long is noted for its rapid progress, with projected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for 2025-2027, showing significant year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic bus market is characterized by a stable market share for leading companies, with Yutong and King Long maintaining significant positions [31]. - In October, Yutong's domestic bus sales were 404 units with a market share of 11.5%, while King Long sold 1,111 units with a market share of 31.6% [31]. - The export market for buses saw a total of 3,845 units in October, with a year-on-year increase of 10% but a month-on-month decline of 31% [40].