证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 25M11 全社会用电同比+6.2%，促进光热发 电规模化发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/30 2025/4/29 2025/8/27 2025/12/25 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《2026 年全国能源工作会议召开，做 好 2026 年电力中长期合同签约履约》 2025-12-22 《气温偏高美国气价继续回落，库存 提取欧洲气价微增，25M11 国内用气 需求边际改善》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on the development of key technologies for logistics automation, which is expected to open a second growth curve [1] - The logistics automation sector is entering a golden development period, with significant market potential due to low penetration rates [8] - The company has a strong positioning advantage and is expected to benefit from its deep collaborations with over 30 provincial transportation investment groups [8] - The core profit model will focus on automated transportation services and SaaS subscription software, which is anticipated to drive future growth [8] - The company's main business is gradually recovering, with a focus on improving profitability and expanding overseas operations [8] - The company has announced a mid-term cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per 10 shares, balancing shareholder returns with transformation investments [8] - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.40 billion, 4.96 billion, and 6.80 billion yuan for net profit, with EPS of 0.22, 0.31, and 0.43 yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.794 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.28% [1] - The company expects a net profit of 542.40 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 212.39% year-on-year [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to be 34.81 in 2023, dropping to 27.79 by 2027 [1] - The company’s operating cash flow is projected to be 143 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 763 million yuan by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward adjustment in temperature expectations leading to a decrease in US gas prices, while European gas prices show a slight increase due to inventory withdrawals [1][4] - Domestic gas demand shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in November 2025 [1][25] Price Tracking - As of December 26, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down by 8.2%, European TTF up by 0.9%, East Asia JKM up by 0.5%, China LNG ex-factory down by 2.9%, and China LNG CIF up by 0.7% [9][14] - The average gas price in China is reported at 2.6 yuan per cubic meter for LNG ex-factory and 2.4 yuan per cubic meter for LNG CIF [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas market prices decreased by 8.2% due to higher temperature expectations, with storage levels dropping by 1.2% year-on-year [16] - European gas consumption from January to September 2025 reached 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [18] - Domestic gas consumption in China for January to November 2025 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, totaling 392 billion cubic meters [25][28] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments for residential gas have been gradually implemented, with 67% of cities adjusting prices by an average of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [37] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price mechanism adjustments, recommending companies such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [53][54] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, recommending Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [54] - The report emphasizes the significance of energy independence, suggesting attention to companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The release of the CCER methodology for renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen is expected to reshape the economic viability of green hydrogen projects [10][12]. - The environmental protection industry strategy for 2026 emphasizes a dual focus on value and growth, driven by carbon neutrality initiatives [15]. - The report highlights significant growth in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 64.01% and a penetration rate increase of 6.68 percentage points to 18.6% [22]. - The price of biodiesel remains stable, with slight improvements in profit margins [34]. - The lithium battery recycling sector is experiencing a decline in profitability despite rising metal prices [35]. Summary by Sections CCER Methodology and Green Hydrogen - The CCER methodology for renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen was officially released, enhancing the regulatory framework for green hydrogen projects [10]. - The methodology specifies that it applies only to new projects and emphasizes the use of self-generated renewable energy [11]. - The economic benefits of green hydrogen projects are projected to improve, with investment recovery periods decreasing from 9.21 years to 8.77 years due to CCER revenue [12][13]. Environmental Protection Industry Strategy - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual themes of value and growth, with an emphasis on market-oriented improvements and operational efficiency [15]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong cash flow and growth potential, such as Huanlan Environment and Longjing Environmental Protection [15][16]. Sanitation Equipment Market - The sanitation vehicle market saw a total sales volume of 66,563 units in the first eleven months of 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for 12,383 units sold [22]. - The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles reached 18.6%, indicating a growing trend towards electrification in this sector [22]. Biodiesel Market - The average price of biodiesel remained stable at 8,200 yuan per ton, with a slight improvement in profit margins [34]. - The price difference between UCOME and waste oil is approximately 2,172 yuan per ton, indicating a competitive market environment [34]. Lithium Battery Recycling - The profitability of lithium battery recycling projects has decreased, with average unit profits for lithium carbonate and waste materials showing negative margins [35]. - Despite this, metal prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have increased, suggesting potential for future profitability improvements [35][37].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 #海外政治 以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太上皇"的 尾部风险有多大？ ◼ 美联储史上著名的"太上皇"。埃克尔斯于 1934-1948 年任职美联储主 席，其任期始于美国大萧条时期，终于二战后的布雷顿森林体系。埃克 尔斯上任时期的货币政策导向兼具宽松与独立性。一方面，埃克尔斯上 任时美国经济仍在大萧条时期，因此其主张延续低利率政策来配合财政 宽松以刺激需求，另一方面，他认为货币与财政政策本质上是两套体系， 在任内推动通过了《银行法案(Banking Act of 1935)》，移除财政部部长 （Secretary of the Treasury）和货币总监（Comptroller of the Currency） 在美联储理事会中的席位，进一步提升美联储的独立性。二战结束后， 美国通胀压力逐步显现，埃克尔斯主张加息，但这与时任总统杜鲁门的 立场相违背。1947 年 12 月，理事兰萨姆（Ronald R. Ransom）在任上不 幸离世，而理事职位的新空缺令杜鲁门在美联储人事安排上拥有了更多 空间。因此，在埃克尔斯 1948 年主席任期结束后，杜鲁门选择麦凯布 (Thomas ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 锂电储能淡季不淡、碳酸锂价格超预期上涨 2025 年 12 月 29 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 47% 2024/12/30 2025/4/29 2025/8/27 2025/12/25 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《储能锂电淡季不淡、光伏反内卷持 续推进》 2025-12-22 2025-12-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 49 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 《储能全球开花需求旺盛，AIDC 和人 形加速》 ◼ 电气设备 10313 上涨 5.37%，表现强于大盘。（本周，12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日，下同）锂电池涨 7.72%，风 电涨 7.14% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate chain is gradually clarifying its bottom, with expectations for a performance turning point in 2026 after clearing burdens from 2025 [3][4] - The building materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 2.61% and 1.78%, respectively [3] - The report highlights the stability in cement prices, with the national average price at 354.0 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 62.2 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][10] - Glass prices have decreased, with the average price for float glass at 1140.1 RMB/ton, down 11.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 260.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [41][46] - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastics, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national cement market price remains stable at 354.0 RMB/ton, with regional variations noted [10][11] - The average cement inventory ratio is 61.8%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [18][20] - The report anticipates a rebound in cement prices if physical demand stabilizes, particularly in provinces with significant infrastructure projects [4][9] 2. Glass Market Overview - The float glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with an average price of 1140.1 RMB/ton [41] - Inventory levels have increased, with a total of 5533 million weight boxes reported, indicating a need for inventory reduction [46] - The report suggests that the glass industry may face challenges in the short term due to high inventory levels and weak demand [4][41] 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to see a gradual recovery, with demand driven by new applications and stable growth in traditional sectors [4] - Effective capacity for fiberglass is projected to increase, supporting a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [4][6] - The report recommends companies such as China Jushi and suggests attention to other players like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology [4]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][10] - The main contributions to this growth were strong consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][10] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market initially reacted with concerns of economic overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][11] Fixed Income - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.8425% to 1.835% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the bond market [2][12] - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 21.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.64 billion yuan from the previous week, while the secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 80.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7 billion yuan [4][17] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 8.46 billion yuan, with a total transaction volume of approximately 273.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4][19] Industry Analysis - 康耐特光学 (Kangnate Optical) is a leading manufacturer of resin lenses in China, with a robust growth trajectory expected as the market for AI smart glasses expands [5][20] - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% in revenue and 35.2% in net profit from 2020 to 2024, driven by high-value products and automation improvements [5][21] - The smart glasses market is anticipated to create significant demand for high-refractive lenses, with 康耐特光学 positioned to benefit from this trend due to its technological advantages and partnerships with major tech companies [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The number of innovative drugs listed in China continues to grow, with domestic products accounting for approximately half of the total market share. The R&D capabilities for innovative drugs in China are also increasing, attracting global attention. Notably, the number and value of domestic innovative drug business development (BD) transactions have reached new highs, with ADC, bispecific antibodies, small nucleic acids, and CAR-T being the four key R&D directions to watch in 2026 [15][21][22] - The Chinese innovative drug market has seen a significant increase in the number of new drug applications (NDA), with domestic products making up a growing proportion. From 2017 to 2024, the number of innovative drugs listed in China rose from 41 to 92, with domestic products accounting for 50% of the total by 2024 [17][21] - The report highlights that the license-out transaction volume and total amount for Chinese companies reached $92.03 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 77% increase compared to the total for 2024. The upfront payment for license-out transactions has also surpassed the total financing amount in the primary market for the same period [22][25] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.29%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index has surged by 62.29% [3][8] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector has experienced fluctuations, with raw materials and medical devices showing positive growth [8] R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - The report provides an overview of the R&D progress for innovative and modified drugs, including approvals and clinical applications [5] - It lists key companies to watch in various sub-sectors, including innovative drugs, research services, and medical devices, with specific recommendations for companies like Innovent Biologics, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec [11][12] Market Insights and Regulatory Observations - The report tracks the price-to-earnings ratio of the pharmaceutical index, noting that it is currently lower than historical averages [5] - It emphasizes the importance of the regulatory environment and market dynamics in shaping the future of the pharmaceutical industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of edge AI, particularly through the strategies of companies like Zhiyu Huazhang and MiniMax, which focus on B-end to C-end user engagement [8][19]. - Zhiyu Huazhang's strategy revolves around serving B-end clients, leveraging their platforms to indirectly reach C-end users, which aligns with the B-end dominated structure of the Chinese large model market [8][19]. - MiniMax's approach to edge AI products highlights the importance of customized user experiences and efficient inference capabilities, which are crucial for C-end applications [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Zhiyu Huazhang's Development Strategy - The company focuses on B-end clients while indirectly accessing C-end users through partnerships with consumer electronics manufacturers and internet platforms [8]. - The growth framework positions edge AI as a critical infrastructure for connecting B-end and C-end users, with plans to enhance their model matrix for comprehensive scenario coverage [8][10]. - The report outlines the company's commitment to building a complete model system that spans cloud, edge, and end [10]. 2. Insights from MiniMax's Prospectus - MiniMax's product strategy emphasizes high-efficiency inference technology and customized product offerings for C-end applications, which serve as a reference for future edge AI applications [19][20]. - The company has successfully established a business model that integrates technology with product offerings, leading to increased revenue and user engagement [19][24]. - MiniMax's focus on low-cost, high-efficiency inference aligns with the core demands of C-end applications, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [19][20]. 3. Market Dynamics and Growth Path - The report identifies a dual-driven market structure where both C-end and B-end applications are advancing simultaneously, with a strong emphasis on model capability iteration [20]. - The B2B2C model is highlighted as a key growth narrative, allowing the company to leverage B-end client channels to efficiently reach a vast number of C-end users [17][18]. - The report notes that the company plans to prioritize sectors like consumer electronics and IoT for model deployment, with long-term aspirations to expand into education and healthcare [18][32].