Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a potential slowdown in upward momentum, but the current positioning is attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - There are no significant positive macro policy signals expected in the short term, and the market may refocus on policy ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference in December [1] - The Hong Kong technology sector is still undergoing adjustments, with insufficient upward momentum for AI technology stocks, particularly as the market awaits signals from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that dividend stocks tend to perform relatively well in November and December, and the current market is following this trend [1] - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones increased by 0.3%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%, with telecommunications and energy sectors leading gains [1] - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve continues to send hawkish signals, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in December, with expectations dropping from 98% to 53% [1][3] Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown in history, which may alleviate liquidity concerns in the market [2] - Upcoming earnings reports from key companies like Nvidia and Walmart are expected to influence market sentiment, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors [2] - The report emphasizes that while macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, the reopening of the government is expected to release liquidity and ease tensions in the U.S. market [2] Group 4 - The report indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation is more of a one-time effect, and the risk of a downturn in U.S. employment should not be overlooked [3] - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will still consider a rate cut in December, especially with upcoming economic data releases [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3][39] Core Views - The company continues to release strong performance and possesses significant business barriers. The integration of AI is enhancing the company's gaming and advertising business, leading to continuous breakthroughs in models and applications [3][39] - The overall ecosystem of the company remains robust, with revenue growth in online gaming, social platforms, advertising, and fintech [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 188.8 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations [9][14] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 56%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [36] 1.1 Online Gaming Revenue - Q3 2025 online gaming revenue was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 15%, exceeding expectations [19][20] 1.2 Social Network Revenue - Q3 2025 social network revenue was 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, driven by growth in mini-game platform service fees and paid membership revenues [23] 1.3 Advertising Revenue - Q3 2025 advertising revenue was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, benefiting from increased ad exposure and AI-driven improvements in ad effectiveness [25] 1.4 Fintech and Enterprise Services Revenue - Q3 2025 fintech and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, supported by growth in consumer loan services and business payment activities [27] 2. User Engagement Metrics - The combined monthly active users (MAU) of WeChat reached 400 million, a year-on-year increase of 2%. QQ's mobile MAU was 517 million, down 8% year-on-year [30] 3. Margin Improvements - All business segments saw improvements in gross margins, with the advertising business achieving a gross margin of 57%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [36] 4. AI Investment Impact - Increased investment in AI has led to higher sales and management expenses, with sales expenses rising to 11.5 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [37] 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 255.5 billion yuan, 285.8 billion yuan, and 318.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 17 times [39]

Macro Strategy - The report forecasts that China's exports will maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate expected to be around 3%-4% [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in December is influenced by potential data quality issues and the recent appointment of a new chair by Trump, which may lead to a prolonged period of low interest rates [1] Financial Products - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index has triggered a local bottom signal, indicating potential opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs [2] - The overall market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with limited space for decline, while small-cap stocks may perform relatively better [2] Fixed Income - The report discusses the recent issuance of green bonds, with a total issuance of approximately 69.11 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in sustainable finance [5] - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in convertible bonds, suggesting a cautious approach while waiting for market opportunities [5] Industry Insights - The electric vehicle sector is experiencing strong demand for lithium batteries, with leading companies exceeding market expectations for production and sales in 2026 [6] - The defense industry is highlighted for its growth potential, driven by military trade and technological advancements, with four main investment themes identified [7] - The report on the lithium battery equipment sector indicates that manufacturers are benefiting from high capacity utilization rates, suggesting a positive outlook for equipment suppliers [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector shows mixed performance, with innovative drug companies experiencing revenue growth, while traditional segments face challenges [10] - The report identifies key players in the innovative drug space, recommending companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Zai Lab for their growth potential [10] Environmental Industry - The report highlights the strategic move of a leading environmental company to initiate a "back to A-share" process, which is expected to enhance its cash flow and support long-term growth [11] - The company is expanding its overseas projects while maintaining a focus on high-quality growth through careful project selection [11] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from improved employment data and potential policy support, with recommendations for companies involved in the export supply chain [13] - The report suggests that the real estate sector may see a gradual recovery, with a focus on companies that can adapt to changing market conditions [13] Gas Industry - The gas sector is projected to see cost optimization and demand growth, with specific recommendations for companies with strong long-term resource advantages [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and the potential impact of tariffs on companies with U.S. gas sources [14] Public Utilities - The report outlines a significant goal for renewable energy integration by 2035, with a focus on increasing wind and solar capacity [16] - The emphasis on integrating renewable energy into the economy is expected to enhance competitiveness and drive growth in the sector [16] Financial Technology - The financial technology sector is expected to see continued market activity, with specific recommendations for companies poised to benefit from ongoing reforms and improvements in the financial landscape [17] - The report highlights the potential for growth in financial IT companies as the macro environment stabilizes [17] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by U.S. government actions and interest rate expectations, with copper and aluminum prices showing upward trends [18] - The report notes that supply constraints and demand dynamics are critical factors affecting price movements in the metals market [18] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is entering a new phase with a focus on AI and smart vehicle technologies, with specific investment opportunities identified in the Robotaxi and Robovan segments [19] - The report highlights the importance of supply chain resilience and technological advancements in driving growth in the automotive industry [19] Energy Storage - The energy storage market is expected to see significant growth, driven by demand for large-scale storage solutions and advancements in battery technology [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain dynamics and pricing trends in the energy storage sector [20]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant turning point for the defense and military industry in 2025, with a strong recovery in both fundamentals and market performance, indicating a shift from policy expectations to actual performance realization [4][9][11] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by rigid demand, structural upgrades, and improved financial health, with five core judgments outlined for 2026 [4][6][24] Industry Trends - The defense and military sector saw a cumulative increase of 16.39% in the Shenwan Defense Index by October 31, 2025, closely aligning with the performance of the CSI 300 index but lagging behind the growth-driven ChiNext index [9] - The market experienced a "Q1 bottoming, Q2 recovery, Q3 acceleration, and Q4 consolidation" rhythm, with the driving force shifting from policy expectations to performance realization [9][10] Financial Performance - The industry ended the "increasing revenue without increasing profit" dilemma, with significant improvements in operating cash flow and profitability quality, marking a transition to a new phase of high-quality development [4][24][26] - By November 10, 2025, the PE-TTM (excluding negative values) for the defense sector was approximately 70 times, indicating a structural revaluation rather than a systemic bubble [20][24] Revenue and Profitability - The report indicates a recovery in revenue and profit growth in 2025, with a notable increase in operating cash flow, signaling a turnaround from previous years of negative cash flow [24][31] - The industry experienced a significant rebound in profitability, with a 17.29% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, reflecting effective cost control and improved operational efficiency [26][31] Investment Focus - The investment strategy focuses on four main lines: the main battle equipment supply chain from a military trade perspective, advanced combat capabilities, military-civilian integration sectors, and reform and asset securitization [4][6][26] - Key companies to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, and others involved in military trade and advanced combat technologies [4][6][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for the battery sector, highlighting significant growth potential and profitability improvements in leading companies such as CATL and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall industry is experiencing high prosperity, with domestic electric vehicle sales reaching 4.26 million units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.9% [2][6]. - The energy storage sector saw a remarkable shipment of 163 GWh in Q3 2025, reflecting an 83% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continued growth rate of 25-30% for the industry in 2026, driven by strong demand in energy storage and electric vehicles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Terminal Demand - Domestic electric vehicle demand remains robust, with significant growth in energy storage shipments in Q3 2025 [4][10]. Part 2: Electric Vehicle Sector - The overall profit in the electric vehicle sector continues to improve, with Q3 2025 revenues reaching 9,981 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year [2][11]. Part 3: Segment Analysis - Profit distribution shows that battery profits have increased to 46% of total profits, while the automotive sector's share has decreased to 26% [2][23]. - The report highlights significant profit growth in lithium carbonate and iron-lithium positive electrodes, with net profit growth rates of 309% and 272% respectively in Q3 2025 [2][28]. Part 4: Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends investing in the battery sector, citing the robust performance of leading companies and the anticipated price increases in various materials [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the CXO and research services sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting continued high growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry saw a slight decline in sales revenue and a modest increase in net profit for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, with revenue growth rates of -0.1% and net profit growth of 3.0% [2][16]. - The fastest-growing segments in terms of revenue for Q3 2025 were CXO, research services, and pharmaceuticals, while the fastest-growing segments for net profit were research services, CXO, and pharmacies [2][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, highlighting that 58 selected innovative drug companies in A-shares experienced a revenue growth of 1.4% and a net profit decline of 4.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][28]. - The research services sector showed significant improvement, with a revenue growth of 10.48% and net profit growth of 49.57% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, indicating a recovery in demand and market conditions [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Industry - The overall profitability of the pharmaceutical industry showed a slight improvement in Q3 2025, with a net profit margin increase compared to the same period in 2024 [7][17]. 2. Innovative Drugs - Innovative drug companies reported a revenue growth of 3.3% and a net profit decline of 15.0% in Q3 2025, with a focus on companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Rejane Bio [2][28]. 3. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The revenue and net profit growth for traditional Chinese medicine companies remained under pressure, with Q3 2025 showing a revenue decline of 1.1% year-on-year [2][3]. 4. Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a revenue growth of 5.6% and a net profit growth of 12.5% in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery phase [2][3]. 5. Research Services - The research services sector demonstrated strong growth, with a revenue increase of 10.48% and net profit increase of 49.57% in Q3 2025, reflecting a positive market trend [2][3]. 6. Medical Services - Medical services companies faced challenges, with a slight revenue decline of 0.29% in Q3 2025, indicating ongoing pressure from macroeconomic factors [2][3]. 7. Medical Devices - The medical device sector reported a revenue growth of 3.30% in Q3 2025, with expectations for recovery in demand in the coming year [2][3]. 8. Biological Products - The biological products sector continued to face challenges, with a revenue decline of 14.5% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 [3]. 9. CXO - The CXO sector showed robust growth, with revenue increasing by 11.74% and net profit by 47.47% in Q3 2025, driven by improved market conditions [3]. 10. Raw Materials - The raw materials sector experienced a revenue decline of 8.2% in Q3 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and reduced domestic demand [3]. 11. Pharmacies - Pharmacy companies reported a revenue growth of 1.9% in Q3 2025, with a focus on profit growth [3]. 12. Pharmaceutical Distribution - The pharmaceutical distribution sector showed a revenue growth of 1.7% in Q3 2025, with increasing industry concentration [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the initiation of the "Return to A-share" process by Guangda Environment, emphasizing that cash flow value remains unchanged despite capital expenditure preferences [1][9] - The white paper on carbon peak and carbon neutrality outlines a clear timeline for energy transition and carbon market construction, indicating significant future opportunities in the sector [14][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a strong performance, with a projected increase in operating cash flow and a focus on high-quality growth through rational capital expenditure [12][19] - The report notes a 12% increase in net profit for the solid waste sector in Q1-Q3 2025, with a 2.7 percentage point increase in gross margin [19] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Guangda Environment, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend potential [1][12] - It suggests that the water service sector is poised for growth, with companies like Yuehai Investment and Xirong Environment showing strong dividend potential due to declining capital expenditures [24][25] Financial Performance - Guangda Environment's operating cash flow is expected to exceed 10 billion HKD in 2025, with a significant reduction in financial expenses and an anticipated dividend payout ratio of up to 98% [12][19] - The report indicates that the solid waste sector's free cash flow has improved significantly, with a 28% increase in operating cash flow in Q1-Q3 2025 compared to the previous year [19] Market Developments - The report notes a 63.18% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, indicating a growing market penetration of 17.40% [24][27] - The white paper emphasizes the importance of energy structure transformation, with non-fossil energy expected to account for over 35% of the energy mix by 2030 [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is initiating the "Back to A" process to diversify its financing channels, which will support long-term development. The company plans to issue up to 800 million shares in RMB and list them on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its H+A dual-platform layout [7][8] - The company has shown a significant improvement in free cash flow, which turned positive in 2024, and has increased its dividend payout ratio to 42% [7][8] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on rational capital expenditure and careful expansion into overseas high-quality projects, ensuring sustainable growth [7][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is projected to decline from 32,495 in 2023 to 28,089 in 2027, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.92% in 2023 and a gradual decline thereafter [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million HKD) is forecasted to decrease from 4,429 in 2023 to 4,036 in 2027, with a notable drop of 23.75% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.66 in 2027, reflecting a gradual improvement in profitability [1] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company has controlled capital expenditure, with a projected decrease to 40 billion RMB in 2025, while free cash flow is expected to exceed 10 billion HKD [7][8] - The report indicates that the company received government subsidies of 2.064 billion RMB in July-August 2025, which is significantly higher than the previous year's amount [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 8.5x for 2025, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59x, indicating potential undervaluation compared to industry peers [1][7] - The report suggests that the company's A-share valuation is likely to be higher than its H-share valuation, with historical premiums observed in similar companies [7][8]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气 价微降 增持（维持） 行业走势 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024/11/18 2025/3/18 2025/7/16 2025/11/13 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《天气转冷美国&欧洲气价上涨，中 国供应充足气价微降》 2025-11-10 《天气转冷美国&中国气价上涨，欧 洲燃气发电出力下降气价回落》 2025-11-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧洲&中国气价微降。截至 2025/11/14,美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM/中国 LNG 出厂/中 ...