Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy for volume and price control, which is expected to enhance long-term resilience. The focus is on transforming marketing to seize market opportunities [3][10] - The company is facing challenges such as short-term demand weakness, mid-term consumption transformation, and long-term demographic changes. However, its innovative approaches are expected to lead the industry in upgrading [3][13] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates of 90.2 billion, 91 billion, and 92.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, -1.0%, and 2.0% [3][14] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 150.56 billion yuan in 2023, 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, 182.88 billion yuan in 2025, 186.53 billion yuan in 2026, and 191.82 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 5.02%, 1.99%, and 2.84% respectively [1][19] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 59.68 yuan in 2023, 68.86 yuan in 2024, 71.99 yuan in 2025, 72.70 yuan in 2026, and 74.17 yuan in 2027 [1][19] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 23.80, expected to decrease to 19.15 by 2027 [1][19] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on building a product system around private domain life scenarios, including creating demand based on industry scenarios and adapting products to different levels of consumers [3][12] - A new "volume control policy" has been introduced to stabilize market prices and improve channel efficiency, with a focus on core products priced at 600, 1500, and 2000 yuan [10][11] - The company is enhancing its anti-counterfeiting measures and improving consumer purchasing experiences through technology [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with the insurance and securities industries outperforming the CSI 300 index recently. The insurance sector increased by 2.41%, while the securities sector rose by 0.36% [11] - The report highlights the regulatory changes in the fund sales industry, aiming to standardize practices and enhance investor protection [16][20] - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a focus on health and pension insurance products [33][48] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the last five trading days (December 8-12, 2025), the insurance sector and securities sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with overall non-bank financials rising by 0.83% [11] - Year-to-date performance shows the insurance sector up by 23.19%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 8.70% [12] Securities Sector - Trading volume has decreased month-on-month, with an average daily trading volume of 21,190 billion CNY in December, a 20.67% increase year-on-year but a 5.45% decrease from the previous month [16] - The margin financing balance reached 25,080 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 32.96% [16] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025 [21] Insurance Sector - The total assets of the insurance industry surpassed 40 trillion CNY, reflecting a 12.5% increase from the beginning of the year [32] - Regulatory changes have been implemented to optimize long-term stock holding risk factors, encouraging insurance companies to adopt a long-term investment approach [23][24] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at historical lows, with a projected P/EV of 0.62-0.95 for 2025 [33][48] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a transition phase, with total assets reaching 29.56 trillion CNY, but profits have significantly declined [34] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 7.70 billion contracts in November, with a transaction value of 66.61 trillion CNY, indicating growth in trading activity [40][41] - The report suggests that innovation in risk management will be crucial for the future development of the futures industry [42] Industry Ranking and Recommendations - The report ranks the sectors as follows: Insurance > Securities > Other Multi-Financial [48] - Key companies recommended include China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal price inventory is at a high level, with downstream heating demand having been released early. Coupled with the pressure from renewable energy sources such as hydropower and wind power on thermal power generation, coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds, with premium income showing positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, along with high dividend assets, suggests a shift in equity allocation preferences towards resource stocks [2][38] Summary by Sections Industry Current Situation - During the week of December 8 to December 12, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 40 CNY/ton, closing at 745 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8384 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons week-on-week, down 5.76%. The average daily outflow was 1.6327 million tons, also down by 100,000 tons, a decrease of 5.72%. The inventory at the four ports increased to 29.157 million tons, up 1.54 million tons, an increase of 5.59% [1][29][33] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at production sites showed a mixed trend, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong down by 25 CNY/ton to 610 CNY/ton, while the price of 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 430 CNY/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou decreased by 30 CNY/ton to 980 CNY/ton [16] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim region fell by 3 CNY/ton to 703 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index for 5500 kcal thermal coal dropped by 6 CNY/ton to 709 CNY/ton [18] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in the thermal coal sector, particularly those with low valuations, such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, highlighting strong investment opportunities in AI-driven equipment and oil service equipment for overseas markets [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high demand for AI computing infrastructure, particularly following the successful IPO of Moore Threads and the lifting of export restrictions on H200 chips by the US, which is expected to accelerate domestic GPU technology development [2]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing a significant uptrend, with GEV increasing its production targets due to a surge in new orders, indicating a robust market outlook [3]. - The oil service equipment segment is benefiting from increased exports to the Middle East and Russia, driven by rising capital expenditures from local oil companies [4]. - The photovoltaic equipment market is poised for growth, particularly in the US, where AI-driven electricity demand is expected to boost local solar capacity [5]. Summary by Sections AI Equipment - The successful listing of Moore Threads and the US lifting of H200 chip export restrictions are expected to enhance domestic GPU technology and infrastructure development, benefiting related sectors such as PCB and liquid cooling equipment [2]. Gas Turbines - GEV has reported a 46% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders, prompting an upward revision of its production capacity and revenue forecasts, indicating a sustained upward trend in the gas turbine industry [3]. Oil Service Equipment - Chinese valve exports to the Middle East and Russia have seen significant growth, with a 25% increase in the latter, driven by rising local oil and gas capital expenditures. The report continues to recommend investments in companies like Neway and Jereh [4]. Photovoltaic Equipment - The report identifies HJT technology as the optimal solution for the US solar market, with significant advantages in cost and environmental impact, driven by the increasing demand for electricity from AI applications [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Dazhong CNC, XCMG, and Sany Heavy Industry in the mechanical equipment sector, as well as Jereh and Neway in the oil service equipment segment, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [1][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the AI industry is entering a critical phase characterized by a competition in full-stack capabilities and deep penetration into various application scenarios [2][3] - Domestic manufacturers are focusing on breakthroughs in full-stack systems within the computing hardware sector, with Lenovo launching its "AI Factory" solution and Huawei Cloud introducing a cross-regional computing resource scheduling system [3] - The application side is witnessing multiple breakthroughs, with AI technology evolving from a tool to a core engine of the industry, as seen in various sectors such as content creation and logistics [4] Group 2 - Significant events include OpenAI's release of GPT-5.2, which enhances performance in professional tasks, and Disney's $1 billion investment in OpenAI, marking a deep integration of traditional content with AI technology [5][6] - The report indicates that the competition focus in the era of large models has shifted from mere model capability upgrades to the construction of comprehensive systems, with intelligent agents becoming the core carriers of industrial upgrades [6] - The report recommends several companies and sectors, including those involved in AI applications, semiconductor ecosystems, and equipment exports, highlighting potential investment opportunities in these areas [7][15]

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求强劲，价格弹性可期，开启新周期 --电动车2026年年度策略 首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199798 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 备注：全文的"预计"如果没有特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所电新组预测 1 摘要： 2 ◆ 26年国内预计销量同增15%，欧洲销量持续高增，全球有望14%增长，考虑带电量提升，预计动力电池维持20%增长。25年国内 汽车消费政策持续+购置税退坡前抢装+出口强劲，全年预期30%增长至1676万辆，26年购置税退坡，预计Q1需求短期承压，且 我们预计26年"两会后"以旧换新补贴续力释放，有望托底26年销量，叠加重卡+出口强势高增，预计2026年新能源车销量1925 万辆，同增15%。欧洲补贴退坡消化完毕，叠加25H2起新车周期，预计全年34%增长至394万辆，26年英国、意大利等市场政策 加码，叠加新车刺激，预计维持30%增长。美国不确定性增加，短期需求放缓，新车型延期，预计25年销量增速放缓至4% ...

Demand: Onshore Wind Capacity Supported, Positive Outlook for Offshore Growth - In 2025, onshore wind capacity is expected to exceed 100GW, with a year-on-year growth of over 25% [2][11] - For offshore wind, the expected capacity for 2025 is between 8-10GW, with a year-on-year increase of 30%+ anticipated for 2026 [12][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to see an average annual installation of 110-120GW for onshore wind and over 20GW for offshore wind [11][12] Offshore Cable: Voltage Levels Increasing, Leading Players Strengthening - The market size for offshore cables is expected to reach 10.7 billion yuan in 2025, a 62% increase year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2025 to 2030 [2][11] - The gross margin for 220kV cables remains stable at 35-40%, while higher voltage cables show promising margins of 45-55% [2][11] Tower and Pile: Domestic Profitability Turning Point, International Expansion Opportunities - Domestic capacity utilization rates have rapidly increased since Q2 2025, indicating a profitability turning point for related companies [2][11] - Internationally, companies are expanding their market share with significant profitability from single pile deliveries [2][11] Wind Turbines: Price Stabilization and Profitability Improvement Expected in 2026 - Wind turbine prices have stabilized, with a rebound of over 5% in bidding prices, leading to improved profitability for domestic manufacturers expected in 2026 [2][11] - Offshore orders and deliveries for wind turbine companies are significantly increasing, with offshore margins exceeding domestic margins by 5-10 percentage points [2][11] Investment Recommendations: Positive Outlook for Offshore Sector - The upcoming deep offshore projects are expected to catalyze growth, with a potential upward adjustment in mid-to-long-term installation levels [2][11] - Recommended stocks include those in the offshore wind sector such as 大金重工, 东方电缆, and others, as well as wind turbine manufacturers like 金风科技 and 明阳智能 [2][11] European Offshore Wind: Accelerated Planning Amid Energy Crisis - Following the energy crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European countries are ramping up offshore wind planning, with auction volumes expected to increase significantly [2][21] - The average annual compound growth rate for European offshore wind installations is projected to reach 21% from 2025 to 2030 [2][37]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 1.82 trillion CNY, an increase of approximately 256.9 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The North Securities Index and the Innovation Index had the highest weekly gains, with the North Securities Index rising by 2.79% and the Innovation Index by 2.74%[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with their performance oscillating above the zero axis in the rolling 30-day relative return analysis[15] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with the relative return difference showing an upward trend in the positive range[18] Participant Performance - QFII and fund heavyweights demonstrated strong excess returns, with the QFII heavy index increasing by 1.40% and the fund heavy index by 0.70%[21] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to 2.5 trillion CNY before retreating, indicating fluctuating market sentiment[25] Sector Performance - The report highlights strong sector performances, with specific industries showing significant weekly gains, although detailed percentage changes are not provided in the summary[31] Industry Trend Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of technology and security, advocating for self-reliance in technology to enhance national security and economic resilience[47] - Key focus areas include AI capabilities, resource security, and energy safety, with attention on domestic consumption and supply-side reforms[47] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, geopolitical uncertainties, and industry-specific volatility that could impact company performance[50]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a new growth cycle for energy storage, projecting significant increases in installed capacity and demand in both domestic and international markets [2][5][32] - Domestic energy storage demand is driven by capacity pricing and innovative business models, with a projected installed capacity of 163 GWh in 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, and 265 GWh in 2026, a 60% increase [2][32] - Internationally, the U.S. is experiencing a surge in demand due to AI data centers, while Europe and emerging markets are also showing strong growth potential [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, the introduction of capacity pricing subsidies by local governments has significantly boosted the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects, with IRR rates ranging from 6% to 12% [2][13] - The report notes that from January to November 2025, domestic energy storage bidding reached 190 GWh, a 138% increase year-on-year, with a total of 175 GWh awarded [2][27] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic energy storage reached 72 GWh from January to October 2025, marking a 42% increase year-on-year [2][27] Group 3: International Market Trends - The U.S. is expected to see a demand for approximately 53 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2025, driven by AI data centers and peak load shortages [2][34] - In Europe, the energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected installation of 20 GWh in 2025, a 131% increase year-on-year, and 42 GWh in 2026, a 109% increase [2][34] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, and South America, are anticipated to contribute to a combined installation of 34 GWh in 2025, a 220% increase year-on-year [2][34] Group 4: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The global demand for energy storage batteries is projected to reach 628 GWh in 2025, a 91% increase, and 663 GWh in 2026, a 61% increase [2][6] - The report indicates that leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Tesla and BYD, are expected to strengthen their market positions as battery prices stabilize and production capacity increases [2][6] - The integration of large battery cells is expected to reduce system costs by 10-15%, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [2][6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strong investment in large-scale energy storage companies, including Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and BYD, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the market [2][6] - It also highlights the potential for growth in residential and commercial energy storage sectors, suggesting companies like DeYe and Airo Energy as promising investment opportunities [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The termination of the acquisition of Chipwise does not affect the company's core position in the RISC-V ecosystem. The company will continue to deepen cooperation with Chipwise and strengthen its strategic layout in the RISC-V field [8] - The acquisition of Zhudian Semiconductor is progressing with support from multiple heavyweight investors, which will enhance the company's control and service capabilities in the AI ASIC market [8] - The AI ASIC market is experiencing significant growth, and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this expanding market through its strategic initiatives [8] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 3.813 billion in 2025, 5.288 billion in 2026, and 7.025 billion in 2027 [8] Financial Projections - The company is projected to have total revenue of 2.322 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 64.22% in 2025 [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 600.88 million in 2024 to a profit of 262.12 million in 2026 and 553.35 million in 2027 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -1.14 in 2024, improving to 0.50 in 2026 and 1.05 in 2027 [9]