Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is accelerating its marketing transformation and further developing multi-channel strategies for 2026. It aims to stabilize the domestic supply of Moutai liquor while clarifying product positioning and pricing [7] - The company plans to focus on two major product categories: the 500ml Flying Moutai and premium products, while reducing the supply of smaller bottle sizes to alleviate channel burdens [7] - A dynamic adjustment of channel distribution is planned, creating a diverse sales model that includes self-sale, distribution, agency, and consignment to better match market demand [7] - The company aims to establish a "2+N" product system for Moutai sauce-flavored liquor, focusing on two core products while ensuring pricing aligns with market demand [7] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady growth in net profit, with expected figures of 90.2 billion, 91 billion, and 92.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 1.0%, and 2.0% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 182.88 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.02% [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 71.99 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 19.30 [1] - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow to 339.72 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.31% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, 蘅东光, is a precision device supplier in the optical communication sector, focusing on passive optical devices, with a strong emphasis on expanding production capacity to seize market opportunities [6][11]. - The optical device industry is rapidly developing, driven by the growth of AI, cloud computing, and data centers, which are becoming the core engines of demand for optical communication [6][11]. - The company has a solid foundation in precision manufacturing technology, enabling it to quickly adapt to customer needs and maintain high-quality production [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - 蘅东光 specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices, with a focus on the AI data center network fiber connection industry [11]. - The company has established a competitive edge in high-density, high-speed passive optical devices, effectively addressing the increasing demands of AI computing [11]. 2. Industry Growth - The optical device market is experiencing significant growth, with the global data center architecture transitioning towards high bandwidth, low latency, and low loss computing networks [6][11]. - The shift in industry focus from precision processing to semiconductor-level micro-nano manufacturing has raised technological barriers, enhancing customer loyalty and market entry barriers [6][11]. 3. Manufacturing and R&D Capabilities - The company has deep technical expertise and integrates R&D with manufacturing, ensuring high-quality product delivery [6][11]. - The company plans to use raised funds for expanding production bases and enhancing R&D capabilities, indicating a balanced and pragmatic approach to growth [6][11]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 21.50 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to be 2.86 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to previous years [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.95 yuan in 2023 to 4.20 yuan in 2025, indicating strong profitability potential [4][6]. 5. Revenue and Profitability Trends - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.33% from 2022 to 2024, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit during this period [34][36]. - In 2024, 70.34% of the company's revenue is expected to come from passive optical fiber wiring products, highlighting the dominant revenue stream [36].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场缺乏进一步指引，贵金属动量趋势强劲 价格再创新高 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日），有色板块本周上涨 6.43%，在全部一级 行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块上 涨 7.07%，能源金属板块上涨 6.66%，小金属板块上涨 6.16%，金属新材料板块上 涨 4.93%，贵金属板块上涨 4.06%。工业金属方面，本周海外受到圣诞假期影响流 动性低迷，数据层面好坏参半，市场缺乏进一步有效指引，本周市场交易更多跟随 惯性动量，受美元继续下行支撑，本周工业金属价格维持上行驱动。贵金属方面， 本周贵金属价格维持上行驱动。基于上述流动性低迷的现状，以及 LME 白银租赁 利率的持续高企，沪银同时出现了期现溢价以及内外盘溢价，投资者需警惕随着海 外流动性回归，以及 26 年 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日彭博 BCOM 商品指数调仓引发的 潜在回调风险。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：TC 价格落地沪铜维持惯性上涨突破 10 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Outlook for 2026 - Despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may exceed expectations due to rising prices and unspent fiscal resources from 2025[3] - A 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion CNY in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio[3] - Unspent fiscal resources from 2025 are expected to exceed 500 billion CNY, contributing to a potential increase in public budget spending growth by about 2.6 percentage points[3] Group 2: Historical Context and Mechanisms - Historical data shows instances where the deficit ratio decreased while spending growth increased, notably in 2021-2022 and 2016-2018[8] - The increase in fiscal spending can be attributed to revenue growth, deficit increases, and the utilization of unspent funds from previous years[11] - In 2025, fiscal deposits increased by 2.04 trillion CNY, the highest level for the same period historically, indicating a significant fiscal surplus[33] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Changes in the real estate and land markets could significantly impact fiscal revenues and expenditures[38] - The estimated impact of rising prices on fiscal revenue is based on certain assumptions, which carry inherent risks[38] - Unexpected spending in December could reduce the anticipated fiscal surplus, affecting the overall fiscal outlook[38]

Group 1: Long-term Value - The report emphasizes the defensive value of dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market, showcasing their resilience amid market volatility, with a return drawdown ratio of 2.4 times [1][11] - Policy support has significantly increased the attractiveness of dividend assets, with A-share companies enhancing their dividend distributions, injecting long-term valuation momentum into these assets [1][16] - There is a sustained demand for long-term capital allocation from insurance funds, which are expected to continue flowing into dividend assets due to their stable returns and matching duration needs [1][17] - The report highlights that Hong Kong dividend assets outperform A-shares, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 6.7%, while state-owned enterprises (SOEs) show higher dividend yields compared to other sectors [1][24][25] Group 2: Mid-term Opportunities - The report anticipates a resurgence of dividend style excess returns in the second half of next year, as macro uncertainties may increase, favoring dividend stocks over growth stocks [2][41] - In the first half of the year, growth stocks are expected to dominate due to favorable liquidity conditions and sector trends, particularly in AI and technology [2][34] - The report suggests that the attractiveness of dividend stocks will increase as long-term interest rates decline, enhancing their appeal and potentially leading to valuation increases [2][41] Group 3: Investment Analysis of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index - The index focuses on high-dividend SOEs within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [3][11] - Since 2020, the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has achieved a cumulative return of 40.4%, outperforming both A/H broad indices and similar products [3][11] - The index is heavily weighted towards quality large-cap SOEs in sectors like energy and telecommunications, providing a differentiated investment opportunity compared to A/H market indices [3][13] - The strong dividend-paying capacity of the index is expected to be reinforced by ongoing policies aimed at enhancing the valuation of SOEs [3][15] Group 4: Product Introduction - The Invesco Great Wall National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF offers investors a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong SOE dividend sector, with a fund size of 5.62 billion yuan as of December 26, 2025 [4][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of participating insurance in China, highlighting its significance in a low-interest-rate environment and the shift towards floating yield products, which are gaining traction among domestic investors [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. What is Participating Insurance? - Participating insurance is a type of insurance that combines protection and investment, allowing policyholders to share in the insurer's surplus [12]. - The operational mechanism involves sharing profits derived from better-than-expected performance, with a minimum of 70% of the surplus distributed to policyholders [6][15]. 2. Historical Development of Participating Insurance in Mainland China - The development of participating insurance has seen significant fluctuations influenced by policy and market factors, with its market share peaking at 75% in 2010 before declining due to market reforms [6][45]. - Since 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged the development of floating yield products, marking a consensus in the industry towards transitioning to participating insurance [6][45]. 3. Current Transition of Participating Insurance - The report anticipates that the proportion of participating insurance will continue to rise, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [6][45]. - The transition is expected to alleviate pressure from interest rate losses and enhance the reliability of the insurance sector's embedded value (EV) [6][45]. 4. International Experience - In mature markets, floating yield products dominate, with Hong Kong's participating insurance being a core component, accounting for 85% of new premiums in 2024 [2][6]. - The report suggests that the characteristics of participating insurance in Hong Kong, such as multi-currency support and a design of low guarantees with high floating returns, could serve as a model for the mainland market [2][6]. 5. Key Metrics for Evaluating Participating Insurance - The report outlines four key indicators for assessing the performance of participating insurance: 1. **Guaranteed Rate**: Currently set at 1.75%, which is lower than traditional insurance [23]. 2. **Demonstration Rate**: Reflects expected returns, with current rates around 3.5% to 4% [24]. 3. **Actual Yield**: The industry average is capped at 3.2%, with some companies exceeding this limit [27]. 4. **Dividend Realization Rate**: Increased by 11 percentage points to 62% in 2024, indicating improved management and expectation guidance [29].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251230 超万亿美元贸易顺差流向哪里？ 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太 上皇"的尾部风险有多大？》 2025-12-29 《12 月出口增速预计将小幅回落》 2025-12-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 12 ◼ 出口企业的贸易顺差并不必然带动等额外汇储备的增加，在境内外融资 利差、资产收益率等因素的影响下，企业在"赚来"美元之后，"留存" 境外市场一部分，通过境内银行流入国内结汇成人民币一部分、以外汇 存款方式持有一部分，并以资本和金融账户为基础渠道，逐步累积起厂 房设备、股票和债券、贸易贷款等海外净资产头寸。 ◼ 商品贸易"赚来多少"：近 6 年内高达 4.9 万亿美元。从 2020 年至 2025 年 11 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The successful grid connection of the second phase of the Guyana solar-storage project and the ongoing progress of overseas green electricity projects are key highlights [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for air pollution control equipment, with a projected net profit growth of 63.15% in 2024 and continued growth in subsequent years [8] - The company has a strong order backlog of 19.7 billion, which is expected to accelerate revenue recognition [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to decline by 7.64% in 2023, followed by a recovery with a growth of 20.74% in 2025 [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 508.97 million in 2023, increasing to 1.23 billion by 2025, representing a growth of 48.33% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.97 in 2025 [8][9] Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest manufacturer of air pollution control equipment globally, benefiting from market demand driven by new construction and upgrades in the power and non-power sectors [8] - The company has successfully completed five international projects this year, enhancing its strategic layout in the mining equipment sector [8]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 关注地方国企资本运作——国企改革和地方 增收的交汇点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 土地财政规模承压，盘活存量资产。地方财政收入来源一共"四本账"， 其中国有土地使用权出让收入一直是地方财政收入的重要来源，而 2022 年以来，土地财政收入规模承压，因此 2022 年开始，国家和地方都陆 续出台了各项政策和措施提升土地使用权出让以外的财政收入，路径 ...