Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company leverages its long-standing IPs in gaming and embraces AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the MMORPG sector [2][36]. - The education segment, led by Mynd.ai, is transitioning towards a SaaS model, which is expected to improve profitability as the market for educational hardware enters a replacement cycle [3][55]. - Strategic investments in AI, AR, and the broader entertainment sector are aimed at building a long-term growth ecosystem [4][69]. Summary by Sections 1. Gaming and Application Services - The company has a strong foundation in MMORPGs, with flagship IPs like "Magic Domain," "Conquest," and "Spirit of Heroes" contributing to stable cash flow [36]. - AI integration has led to a 26.7% reduction in R&D costs in the gaming segment, enhancing profitability [51]. - The gaming segment is expected to generate revenues of 2,594 million, 3,160 million, and 3,318 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -25%, +7%, and +5% [76]. 2. Education Segment - Mynd.ai, a leader in educational interactive display devices, has a market share of nearly 16% in the global stock of interactive devices as of 2024 [3][56]. - The transition to a SaaS model is underway, with a 8% quarter-on-quarter growth in SaaS subscriptions, particularly for the flagship application "Explain Everything" [63]. - Revenue from the education segment is projected to be 1,685 million, 1,769 million, and 1,946 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -20%, +5%, and +10% [76]. 3. Strategic Investments - The company has made strategic investments in AI, AR, and the entertainment sector to create synergies with its core gaming and education businesses [4][69]. - Investments in companies like Rokid and Shuaiku Network are expected to enhance market competitiveness and provide new channels for user engagement [72][75]. - The collaboration with Zhongke Wenge aims to develop AI applications for various sectors, positioning the company as a leader in AI technology deployment [70].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative decline of 5.23% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a trading volume of approximately CNY 14,557 billion[10] - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.38, positioned at the 33.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating relatively low historical valuation[15] - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 7.13 on November 28, 2025, suggesting a low investment risk at the current market level[16] Macro and Policy Analysis - Domestic demand data showed improvement, but the manufacturing PMI for October fell below the expansion threshold, negatively impacting market confidence[19] - The combination of "fiscal bond issuance + monetary policy continuation" effectively mitigated funding disturbances, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve stabilized the valuation environment[29] - The release of multiple industry policies, particularly in new energy and satellite IoT, provided long-term support for the relevant sectors' fundamentals[29] Industry Dynamics - The consumer technology sector showed structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan and JD.com facing profit declines due to intensified competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi improved profitability through international expansion and premiumization[40] - AI breakthroughs opened new commercial pathways, with the disparity in corporate earnings becoming a key variable affecting market expectations[40] Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to maintain a bottom consolidation and slight upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations[58] - Key upcoming events include the December FOMC meeting and the release of various macroeconomic data, which will significantly impact market sentiment and index performance[58]

Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a cumulative decline of 1.64% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $50,457 billion[9] - As of November 28, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM was 36.50, placing it at the 91.4% historical percentile since 2011, indicating a relatively high valuation[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index was 56.28 as of November 28, significantly down from 92.57 at the end of October, suggesting improved market sentiment[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - The macro environment in November was characterized by mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at 48.7, below expectations, while non-manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts[19] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated significantly, with a notable shift towards dovish sentiment by the end of November, raising the probability of a rate cut in December to 71%[34] - The cancellation of the October CPI report due to government shutdown created uncertainty in assessing inflation trends, further complicating the Fed's decision-making[25] Industry Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index's volatility in November was heavily influenced by AI-related developments, with concerns about an AI bubble exacerbated by bearish comments from notable investors[35] - Google's launch of the Gemini 3 AI model and Nvidia's strong earnings report helped stabilize market sentiment towards the end of the month, despite initial fears of an AI bubble[36] - The market's focus shifted towards the actual performance of AI companies, with investors demanding stronger evidence of profitability and valuation rationality[35] Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to experience upward momentum in December, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing and the ongoing AI industry revolution[48] - Key economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market expectations and the Fed's policy direction[50] - The upcoming earnings reports from major semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Micron will provide insights into the demand for AI-related investments and overall tech sector performance[51]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Expected High Dividend Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is constructed using a two-stage process to create an expected dividend yield indicator. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution, and the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators. Additionally, two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening. The model selects stocks from the CSI 300 constituents to construct the expected high dividend portfolio, which holds 30 stocks and rebalances monthly[3][8]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents to form the candidate stock pool[9]. 2. Exclude the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative increase)[13]. 3. Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit growth rate less than 0)[13]. 4. Rank the remaining stocks in the pool by expected dividend yield and select the top 30 stocks to construct the portfolio with equal weight[9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model's historical performance is impressive, with a cumulative return of 358.90% and a cumulative excess return of 107.44% relative to the CSI 300 Total Return Index. The annualized excess return is 8.87%, with a maximum rolling one-year drawdown of only 12.26% and a monthly excess win rate of 60.19%[11]. Model Backtest Results 1. **Expected High Dividend Portfolio** - **Average Return (November 2025)**: 0.70%[14] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI 300 Index**: 3.08%[14] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI Dividend Index**: 2.31%[14] - **Cumulative Return (2009-2017)**: 358.90%[11] - **Cumulative Excess Return (2009-2017)**: 107.44%[11] - **Annualized Excess Return (2009-2017)**: 8.87%[11] - **Maximum Rolling One-Year Drawdown**: 12.26%[11] - **Monthly Excess Win Rate**: 60.19%[11] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Expected Dividend Yield Factor** - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor is constructed using a two-stage process. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution, and the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators. Two short-term factors—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening[3][8]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution[8]. 2. Predict and calculate the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators[8]. 3. Use the reversal factor and profitability factor to assist in screening[8]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high dividend yield stocks, contributing to the construction of a high-performing portfolio[3][8]. Factor Backtest Results 1. **Expected Dividend Yield Factor** - **Average Return (November 2025)**: 0.70%[14] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI 300 Index**: 3.08%[14] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI Dividend Index**: 2.31%[14] - **Cumulative Return (2009-2017)**: 358.90%[11] - **Cumulative Excess Return (2009-2017)**: 107.44%[11] - **Annualized Excess Return (2009-2017)**: 8.87%[11] - **Maximum Rolling One-Year Drawdown**: 12.26%[11] - **Monthly Excess Win Rate**: 60.19%[11]

执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 2025/2026 财年中报点评：业绩承压，自由现 金流持续改善 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 81,410 | 79,258 | 76,748 | 77,444 | 78,489 | | 同比(%) | (11.50) | (2.64) | (3.17) | 0.91 | 1.35 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 3,185 | 3,252 | 2,976 | 3,182 | 3,446 | | 同比(%) | (25.82) | 2.09 | (8.47) | 6.92 | 8.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 ...

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the normalization of government bond trading may become a primary channel for injecting long-term liquidity, rather than showing immediate effects in the short term [1][18] - The expectation for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased to 83%, driven by dovish comments from Fed officials and progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations [1][20] - The report highlights the importance of the voting structure and future interest rate guidance in the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][20] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound rather than a full recovery, with a macro timing model scoring -2 for December, indicating a potential adjustment [2][20] - The report suggests that the technology growth sector may regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, but more incremental capital is needed [2][20] - Fund allocation recommendations lean towards a balanced and slightly aggressive ETF configuration due to anticipated upward market trends [2][20] Fixed Income - The report emphasizes the potential for convertible bonds to benefit from the upcoming "expansion" market in 2026, focusing on mid-cap and niche themes [5][24] - It notes that the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between 1.75% and 1.85%, with expectations for a return to a 40 basis point spread between 30Y and 10Y bonds by 2026 [6][26] - The report discusses the sensitivity of bond yields to regulatory changes and market conditions, suggesting that recent volatility presents good allocation opportunities [6][25] Industry Recommendations - The report highlights Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463) as a company accelerating its globalization efforts, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 18.339 billion, 25.492 billion, and 29.315 billion yuan, respectively [9] - Ding Tai High-Tech (301377) is noted for benefiting from increased demand for PCB processing due to AI computing needs, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 400 million, 630 million, and 900 million yuan [10][11] - Salted Fish Shop (002847) is recognized for its strong multi-channel layout and product innovation, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 820 million, 1.01 billion, and 1.22 billion yuan [12] - Meituan-W (03690.HK) is under scrutiny due to lower-than-expected profits, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 now at -1.42 billion, 1.2 billion, and 2.46 billion yuan [13] - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is projected to maintain healthy growth in its core business, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2026-2028 at 101.525 billion, 141.564 billion, and 184.647 billion yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised the pricing methods for transmission and distribution costs, aiming to promote the consumption of renewable energy and enhance power supply security [4]. - The highest electricity load during the heating season is expected to reach a historical peak, indicating a balanced energy supply and demand overall [4]. Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Price**: The average electricity purchase price in November 2025 was 401 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [33]. - **Coal Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 816 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.49% [43]. - **Water Conditions**: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 173.41 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 2.7% and 36.44% year-on-year, respectively [53]. - **Electricity Consumption**: Total electricity consumption from January to October 2025 was 8.62 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [13]. - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to October 2025 was 8.06 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [20]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.5 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [47]. Investment Recommendations - **Thermal Power**: Focus on undervalued investment opportunities in thermal power, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, recommending companies like Jingtou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - **Charging Pile Equipment**: Suggesting attention to companies like Teruid and Shenghong Shares [4]. - **Photovoltaic Assets**: Emphasizing the potential for value reassessment in photovoltaic and charging pile assets, recommending companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group [4]. - **Green Electricity**: Anticipating improvements in asset quality and growth potential in green electricity, recommending companies like Longyuan Power and China Minmetals Energy [4]. - **Hydropower**: Highlighting the benefits of marketization and low-cost advantages, recommending Changjiang Power [4]. - **Nuclear Power**: Noting the growth potential and expected increases in profitability and dividends, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - In 2026, consumption and export growth are expected to slightly decline, while investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly, becoming a notable driver of economic growth[5] - The budget deficit rate is expected to remain stable, but the scale of special bonds will see limited growth, leading to a slight decline in the overall broad deficit rate[5] - The fiscal and monetary policy stance will continue to be positive and accommodative, with an increasing probability of interest rate cuts in Q1[5] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 80%, influenced by weak non-farm payroll data and Fed Put expectations[2] - The timing of the rate cut, whether in December or January, has minimal impact on interest rates, as traders' pricing for cumulative rate cuts in December 2026 remains largely unchanged[2] - Attention should be paid to the voting results and the latest dot plot guidance from the December meeting[3] Bond Market Viewpoints - The 10-year government bond yield is currently fluctuating within the consensus range of 1.75%-1.85%[6] - The credit risk evolution is being monitored, particularly in light of liquidity pressures from Vanke's bond extension, with potential trading opportunities arising if credit risks escalate[6] Equity Market Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a final bottoming phase, with growth sectors leading the recovery trend[6] - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with the anticipated rate cut, the market is likely to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the AI industry chain and growth style[6] - The manufacturing PMI remains below 50%, indicating that the fundamentals do not support rising interest rates[6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The company, Ding Tai Gao Ke, is a global leader in PCB drill bits, benefiting significantly from the surge in demand for PCB processing driven by AI computing power [2][5]. - The company has shown a notable performance turnaround, with revenue and net profit growth driven by the increasing demand for high-end PCBs [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ding Tai Gao Ke has over 30 years of experience in the PCB drill bit industry and has expanded its product offerings to include milling tools and special PCB tools [2][14]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.457 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 29% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 282 million yuan, up 64% year-on-year [2][22]. AI Computing Power Impact - The demand for AI computing servers is driving a significant increase in PCB demand, particularly for high-end PCBs [3][34]. - IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.8% for the global server market from 2024 to 2029, with accelerated server spending growing over 20% annually [3][34]. - The report highlights that the increasing thickness of PCBs and the rising number of drill holes are leading to higher demand for drill bits [3][53]. Production Capacity and Product Development - The company has a leading position in self-manufactured equipment, with production capacity expected to reach 1.2 million drill bits per month by the end of 2025 and 1.8 million by the end of 2026 [4][5]. - The proportion of high-end products is increasing, with micro-drill sales expected to rise from 21% in 2024 to 28% in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - The acquisition of German company MPK is expected to enhance technological innovation and international expansion [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.0 billion yuan, 6.3 billion yuan, and 9.0 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 104, 66, and 46 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].