证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 关税缓和需求小幅向上，固态新技术如火如荼 —— 电动车行业2025年5月策略 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年06月1日 摘要 2 3 电动车：4月国内销量同比增速亮眼，欧洲销量开始恢复 4 国内：25年4月销123万辆，同增44%，渗透率47.3% ◆ 国内4月销量亮眼，车企价格战继续，25年预期30%增长。25年4月新能源车销123万辆，同增44%，淡季不淡 ，同环比+44%/-0.9%，渗透率47.3%，同环比+11.3pct/+4.9pct；1-4月新能源车销量430万辆，同增46%， 渗透率42.7%，同增10pct。4月出口20.0万辆，同增76% 。25年"以旧换新"政策落地，补贴支持范围扩大， 叠加高阶辅助驾驶下沉，电动车价格战，电动化进一步提速，25年销量预期1670万辆，同增30%。 ◆ ...

证券研究报告 端午之后，产业趋势关注什么？ ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年6月2日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1. 上周市场回顾 注：上周交易日为5月26日-30日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：大盘表现 ✓ 上证指数走势 4 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 1.推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、迈为股份、先导智能、 长川科技、华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精 工、杭可科技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【锂电设备】海内外扩产共振，锂电设备龙头有望充分受益 近期宁德时代港股 IPO 募集 353 亿港元，约 90%募集资金(276 亿港元)将用于匈牙利德 布勒森工厂建设，该超级工厂规划总产能 72GWh，分两期建，一期项目已投入 7 亿欧 元，规划产能为 34GWH，预计将于 2025 年投入生产；二期项目规划产能 38GWH，预 计将于 2025 年开工建设，2027 年投入生产，达产后将配套宝马、奔驰等欧洲车企，服 务欧洲市场。先导智能作为龙头设备商有望充分受益，2025 年全年预计关联交易规模 约 85 亿元，Q1 已实现 21 亿元，此外塔塔等海外客户稳步拓展中，海 ...

证券研究报告 端午之后，产业趋势关注什么？ ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年6月2日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 上周市场回顾 注：上周交易日为5月26日-30日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：大盘表现 ✓ 上证指数走势 4 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that June may mark the beginning of a new "East Rising, West Falling" trading cycle, driven by a weakening US dollar, which is expected to decline further below 100 points, benefiting non-US assets including the Chinese market [1][2] - The technology growth sector is identified as a key theme within the "East Rising, West Falling" trading strategy, with growth stocks expected to outperform during a weak dollar period, supported by favorable liquidity conditions [2][3] - The report highlights that the technology sector will experience a series of significant events in June, including major product launches and conferences, which are anticipated to catalyze market activity [3][4] Group 2 - Specific themes and industry trends to watch in June include AI applications (such as AI smartphones and glasses), humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving initiatives [7][6] - The report notes that the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's trading volume has decreased to 27.3% of total A-share trading, indicating a potential opportunity for investment as the sector's valuation becomes more attractive [2][14] - The upcoming events in June, such as the WWDC and various AI and robotics conferences, are expected to provide significant market catalysts, enhancing the visibility and potential of the technology growth sector [3][4][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The long - end of US Treasury yields may fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5%. Although the short - term decline in US Treasury yields and the support for the US dollar may be due to the obstruction of Trump's tariff policy in domestic legislation and the short - term reallocation of global assets, the upward drive for US Treasuries in the medium term remains [1][38]. - Domestic equity trading was relatively cold before the Dragon Boat Festival. The hot sectors such as chemicals, controlled nuclear fusion, new consumption, and new reorganizations declined, pressuring market sentiment. In the convertible bond market, the equal - weighted index was weaker than the weighted index and the double - low index. The large - cap and high - price styles were superior [1][39]. - It is recommended to actively layout medium - and low - priced convertible bond targets with small business uncertainties, sufficient disposable cash, and positive attitudes towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions. Also, investors are advised to seize the opportunity to subscribe for high - quality pan - technology incremental targets among the unissued ones [1][39]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market - From May 26th to May 30th, the equity market declined overall. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91% to 10040.63 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.40% to 1993.19 points, and the CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 3840.23 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 816.77 billion yuan to 10698.79 billion yuan, a weekly decline of 7.09% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. Environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer led the gains, while the automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, food and beverage, and household appliances sectors led the losses [13]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market - From May 26th to May 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.23%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with 1 industry rising more than 2%. Media, beauty care, national defense and military industry, computer, and food and beverage led the gains, while communication, household appliances, automobile, social services, and machinery equipment led the losses [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 555.18 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5.13 billion yuan, a 0.93% increase. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 105.07 billion yuan, with the first - ranked one reaching 227.37 billion yuan. About 48.52% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 32.49% had a gain between 0 - 1%, and 8.02% had a gain of more than 2% [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to rise, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 47.04%, an increase of 1.60 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the 90 - yuan - below and 100 - 110 - yuan price ranges, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges narrowed. In terms of parity ranges, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges narrowed [21]. - The parity of 12 industries increased, with 3 industries having an increase of more than 2%. Media, environmental protection, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and beauty care led the increase, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, social services, automobile, and electronics led the decline [32]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - The weekly weighted average increase of the convertible bond market was positive, while the median was negative. The weekly weighted average increase and median of the underlying stock market were both positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 0.93% week - on - week, while that of the underlying stock market decreased by 3.56% [33]. - About 47.55% of convertible bonds rose, and about 56.86% of underlying stocks rose. About 41.88% of convertible bonds had a larger increase than the underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [33]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - Continue to adhere to the view that the long - end of US Treasury yields may fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5% [1][38]. - Actively layout medium - and low - priced convertible bond targets with small business uncertainties, sufficient disposable cash, and positive attitudes towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions. Seize the opportunity to subscribe for high - quality pan - technology incremental targets among the unissued ones, such as Maolai Optics, Kechuan Technology, Shenyu Co., Ltd., and Meili Technology [1][39]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion parity premium rate repair next week are Ying 19 Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, Hailiang Convertible Bond, Pufa Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Hexing Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2, and Meijin Convertible Bond [1][39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 基础化工周度数据简报 - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: The basic chemical index decreased by 0.7% in the past week, increased by 1.7% in the past month, decreased by 1.2% in the past three months, and increased by 0.3% in the past year. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical decreased by 2.2% in the past week, Baofeng Energy decreased by 2.4%, Satellite Chemical decreased by 5.4%, and Hualu Hengsheng increased by 1.8% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: The report provides the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 17,900 yuan/ton, 16,060 yuan/ton, and 12,513 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +20 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and +395 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,623 yuan/ton, 3,809 yuan/ton, and 1,202 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of +185 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and +100 yuan/ton [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1,243 yuan/ton, 4,308 yuan/ton, 525 yuan/ton, and 4,075 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 139 yuan/ton, +6 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 9 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,867 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 78 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethylene cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,237 yuan/ton, 1,897 yuan/ton, and 171 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +56 yuan/ton, - 48 yuan/ton, and - 31 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 111 yuan/ton, 1,636 yuan/ton, and 93 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 13 yuan/ton, - 13 yuan/ton, and +3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,347 yuan/ton, 1,862 yuan/ton, 4,025 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +13 yuan/ton, - 13 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and +19 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 456 yuan/ton, 184 yuan/ton, - 240 yuan/ton, and 176 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of +22 yuan/ton, - 9 yuan/ton, +24 yuan/ton, and +76 yuan/ton [2]. 1.2 基础化工周报 - **2.1 基础化工指数走势** - No specific content is provided in the given text, only the title is mentioned. - **2.2 聚氨酯板块** - The report shows the price and profit trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [17][18]. - **2.3 油煤气烯烃板块** - It presents the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic动力煤, and naphtha, as well as the profitability of different production processes for polyethylene and polypropylene [26][30][32]. - **2.4 煤化工板块** - The report shows the price and profit trends of coal - coking products (such as coking coal and coke), traditional coal - chemical products (such as synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid), and new materials (such as DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and PA6) [43][47][54].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Large Refining and Chemical Industry: Filament Prices Remain Flat, Production and Sales Increase Significantly [1] - Report Date: June 1, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian (Chief Energy and Chemical Analyst), Zhou Shaowen (Research Assistant) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, covering various aspects such as project spreads, polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, along with the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Price and Market Value**: The report tracks the stock price changes and market values of six private refining and chemical companies, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. For example, as of May 30, 2025, Hengli Petrochemical's stock price was 15.2 yuan, with a total market value of 106.6 billion yuan [8]. - **Profit Forecast**: It provides profit forecasts for these six companies from 2024 to 2027. For instance, Rongsheng Petrochemical's estimated net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is 2.895 billion yuan [8]. - **Oil Price and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) decreased this week. The average price of Brent was 64.5 dollars/barrel, down 0.7 dollars/barrel (-1.1%); WTI was 61.3 dollars/barrel, down 0.8 dollars/barrel (-1.3%). The domestic refining project spread was 2722.9 yuan/ton, up 75.3 yuan/ton (2.8%); the foreign refining project spread was 1086.0 yuan/ton, up 15.2 yuan/ton (1.4%) [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 7035.7/7300.0/8200.0 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 14.3/0.0/0.0 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly average profits were 85.9/-4.2/-4.2 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 2.1/7.4/7.4 yuan/ton. Inventory days were 11.3/20.7/27.3 days, up 0.0/2.3/1.9 days respectively. The filament operating rate was 89.7%, down 0.5 pct. Downstream, the loom operating rate was 62.3%, down 1.1 pct; the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 11.2 days, down 1.0 day; the finished product inventory was 24.2 days, up 0.7 days [2][9]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices fell [2][9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average PX price was 840.1 dollars/ton, up 6.3 dollars/ton, and the spread over crude oil was 369.5 dollars/ton, up 11.4 dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 80.6%, up 4.1 pct [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: It analyzes the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, petroleum and petrochemical indices, and oil prices, as well as the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [13][19]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: This section details the prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates of various polyester products (PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, etc.) and their upstream and downstream relationships, including the operating rates of looms and other downstream industries [22][32][37]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It compares the prices and spreads of refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, Singapore) with crude oil prices [79][94][107]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It presents the prices and spreads of various chemical products (EVA, benzene, styrene, etc.) relative to crude oil prices [130][131][140].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: OPEC+ Discusses July Production Increase, International Oil Prices Fluctuate [1] - Analyst: Chen Shuxian, CFA [1] - Research Assistant: Zhou Shaowen [1] - Release Date: June 1, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $64.4/$61.2 per barrel, down $0.7/$0.6 per barrel from last week [2]. - The report provides comprehensive data on the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import/export volumes [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc., and companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service, CNPC Engineering, etc. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Performance**: Provided the latest prices, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes, and valuations of key upstream companies such as CNOOC and PetroChina [9]. - **Crude Oil Market Data**: Included oil prices (Brent, WTI, etc.), inventory (US total, commercial, strategic, and Cushing crude oil inventories), production (US crude oil production, rig count, and fracturing fleet count), refining (US refinery processing volume and utilization rate), and import/export data [9]. 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Sector Performance**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Listed Company Performance**: Presented the latest prices, market capitalizations, price changes in different periods, and valuations of listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector [23][25]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Prices**: Analyzed the prices and price differences of various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, Urals, and ESPO, and their relationships with the US dollar index and copper prices [27]. - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Tracked the inventories of US total, commercial, strategic, and Cushing crude oils and their relationships with oil prices [47]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Monitored US crude oil production, rig count, and fracturing fleet count [64]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Focused on US refinery processing volume and utilization rate [68]. - **Crude Oil Import/Export**: Followed US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes [74]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Refined Oil Prices**: Studied the prices and price differences of refined oils such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [84]. - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Tracked the inventories of US and Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [114]. - **Refined Oil Supply**: Monitored US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production [132]. - **Refined Oil Demand**: Focused on US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption and passenger airport security checks [134]. - **Refined Oil Import/Export**: Followed US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel import/export and net export volumes [143]. 5. Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Tracked the average daily rates of self-elevating and semi-submersible drilling platforms in the oilfield services sector [155].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]