Domestic Macro Viewpoints - Recent policies have led to a rebound in economic expectations, with December construction PMI rising by 3.2 points to 52.8%[5] - December manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 50.1%, marking the first return to the 50% line since March of the previous year[5] - The expected economic growth rate for 2025 is around 5%, with a slight increase in the likelihood of a strong start in Q1 2026[5] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The U.S. economy is expected to rebound due to the end of government shutdowns and a cumulative 75bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve since September 2025[5] - Anticipation of Trump's visit to China in April may enhance market risk appetite through increased diplomatic engagement[5] - The midterm elections are likely to lead to more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, supporting U.S. stock markets throughout the year[5] Equity Market Viewpoints - A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally, driven by liquidity expectations and positive sentiment from overseas markets[5] - The AI industry chain remains a key focus, with investments in hardware, storage, and applications like robotics expected to grow[5] - Industries that have not fully launched yet, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and gaming, may also see new market opportunities[5] Bond Market Viewpoints - Interest rates are expected to slightly decline after the New Year, with 10-year rates potentially returning to around 1.80%[6] - Concerns about fiscal expansion and new regulations on public fund redemptions have eased, contributing to a more stable bond market outlook[6] Currency Market Viewpoints - The RMB has appreciated against the USD, with the onshore and offshore rates breaking the 7.0 mark due to seasonal demand and policy adjustments[9] - The RMB is expected to maintain an upward trend in January, supported by pre-Spring Festival settlement demand, but may stabilize in February[9] Quantitative Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for growth-oriented ETFs in the A-share market, with specific recommendations for various sectors[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 653 million and 733 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% to 59% [7] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in both product and channel development, with significant contributions from its NAS products and charging solutions [7] - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 9.183 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.85% [1][7] Financial Projections - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 4.803 billion RMB, increasing to 6.170 billion RMB in 2024A, and reaching 9.183 billion RMB in 2025E [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 387.52 million RMB in 2023A to 688.32 million RMB in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48.90% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.93 RMB in 2023A to 1.66 RMB in 2025E [1] Product and Channel Development - The company has launched the DH4300 Plus NAS product, which has gained traction in the market, particularly in Japan [7] - Revenue from storage products increased by 125% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand [7] - The company has expanded its domestic and overseas channels, successfully entering major e-commerce platforms and retail chains in developed markets [7]

Macro Strategy - The macro timing model for January 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the A-share index rising, with an average increase of 3.18% historically [1][7][19] - The trading volume of the index exceeded 20 trillion yuan in the last week of 2025, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][7] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the futures margin ratio twice at the end of December 2025, causing significant volatility in the metals sector [1][7] ETF Recommendations - The report recommends a growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic market outlook for January [1][7] - Notable inflows were observed in ETFs related to robotics, industrial non-ferrous metals, and satellite communications, suggesting increased investor interest in these sectors [1][7] Hong Kong Market - The listing of Wallen Technology and the strong performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index on January 2, 2026, particularly in the semiconductor sector, indicate potential for good absolute returns in the Hong Kong market during the spring rally [1][7][19] Nasdaq 100 ETF Insights - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a 0.73% decline in December 2025, influenced by cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and concerns over AI company earnings [5][22] - As of December 31, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a PE ratio of 35.93, indicating it is at a relatively high historical valuation [5][22] - The index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in January 2026, driven by macroeconomic signals and earnings reports from major tech companies [5][22][23] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of the AI and semiconductor sectors, which are expected to see increased attention and funding in early 2026 due to positive sentiment and demand recovery [2][21] - The gaming sector is also benefiting from the regular issuance of game licenses, providing marginal support to content-related stocks [2][21] Company-Specific Insights - The report discusses the performance of specific companies such as the Honey Snow Group, which is positioned as a leading player in the affordable beverage market with a strong supply chain and brand recognition [13] - North Huachuang is noted for its platform-based semiconductor equipment leadership, benefiting from increased capital expenditure and domestic production rate improvements [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.1 to 4.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80.72% to 102.76%, with a median estimate of 4.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 91.63% increase [2]. - The growth is driven by the continuous explosion in demand for AI computing servers and data centers, significantly boosting the demand for high-end PCB products [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.28 to 1.78 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a median of 1.53 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 178.18% [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1.32 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.065 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82.62% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 219.31 million yuan in 2023 to 1.5729 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 93.07% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.53 yuan in 2023 to 3.84 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1]. Market Dynamics - The thickness of AI PCBs is continuously increasing, leading to a rise in the demand for high-length-to-diameter ratio drill bits, which are essential for processing these advanced PCBs [3][4]. - The company is experiencing a significant increase in the consumption value of single-hole drill bits as PCB thickness upgrades, which enhances the overall cost and demand for these products [4]. - The company’s production capacity is leading the industry, with expectations to reach a monthly capacity of 1.2 billion drill bits by the end of 2025 and 1.8 billion by the end of 2026 [5].

证券研究报告 从宏微观维度观测市场节奏 春潮涌动，万木争春 证券分析师 ：芦哲 执业证书编号：S0600524110003 联系邮箱：luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月5日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ✓ 2026年1月市场行情展望 ✓ 基金配置建议： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 ✓ 观点：1月宏微观模型结果，呈现开门红评分 ➢ 1月整体走势判断：2026年1月，宏观择时模型的月度评分是0分，历史上该分数万得全A指数全月上涨概率为76.92%，平均涨幅为 3.18%。叠加日历效应中春季躁动的提前启动，我们对后续1月A股权益整体走势持非常乐观的观点。如果后续出现调整，温和调整的 概率偏高，不必过于担忧。结构上依旧推荐关注我们报告中的ETF组合。 ➢ 2025年最后一周大盘指数的日均成交量突破两万亿元，说明交易情绪逐步回暖。ETF资金流向中，本周机器人、工业有色、卫星通信 等方向的ETF净流入金额排名靠前，可以 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative increase of 1.62% from December 1, 2025, to January 2, 2026, with a total trading volume of approximately 1,129 billion CNY[10] - The index showed a pattern of "oscillating downward, bottoming mid-month, and accelerating rebound at the beginning of 2026" during this period[10] Valuation Analysis - As of January 2, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.80, positioned at the 36.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating a relatively low historical valuation[13] Technical Analysis - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was -0.41 as of January 2, 2026, indicating a low-risk environment and a favorable risk-reward ratio[18] - The index's current price is near the main peak of the chip distribution, suggesting manageable selling pressure if it rebounds to that level[18] Macro Factors - Domestic PMI improved in November, and CPI/core CPI showed signs of recovery, providing support for the tech sector's valuation[23] - U.S. employment data showed weakness, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which impacted the risk appetite for Hong Kong tech stocks[23] Policy Support - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stable growth and support for 2026, alleviating concerns about liquidity tightening[27] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled potential interest rate cuts, although future paths remain uncertain, affecting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which are crucial for Hong Kong tech valuations[27] Industry Dynamics - The end-of-year promotions in e-commerce extended the sales cycle, enhancing transaction expectations on the platform side[36] - The AI and semiconductor sectors saw increased attention and funding at the beginning of January, boosting short-term elasticity in the tech sector[36] Key Event Outlook - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll, CPI/PCE, and GDP data could raise interest rate cut expectations, benefiting Hong Kong tech valuations; conversely, strong data may constrain liquidity and valuation elasticity[42] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to trend upward in January 2026, driven by seasonal trading and potential foreign capital inflow, with volatility likely to increase during event windows[42] Related ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a total market value of 48.95 billion CNY and a trading volume of 2.907 billion CNY on January 2, 2026[10]

Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 Index experienced a monthly decline of 0.73% in December 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $51.445 billion[9] - The P/E ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index as of December 31, 2025, was 35.93, placing it at the 88.6% historical percentile since 2011, indicating relatively high valuation levels[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 Index increased to 65.29 by December 31, 2025, up from 56.28 at the end of November, suggesting a rise in market risk perception[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - Economic data in December indicated a slowdown, with manufacturing PMI at 48.2 and unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve[19] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, provided liquidity support, but internal disagreements on future rate paths limited market optimism[28] - Political pressures, including comments from former President Trump advocating for significant rate cuts, influenced market expectations and pricing logic[31] Industry Dynamics - Concerns over capital expenditure sustainability in the AI sector emerged, with Oracle's disappointing earnings report triggering market anxiety about AI transformation capabilities[36] - The adjustment of Nasdaq 100 Index components to include storage companies like Seagate and Western Digital reflected a structural shift towards AI storage demand, indicating a new investment focus[40] - Micron Technology's earnings exceeded expectations, confirming strong demand for storage solutions and helping to stabilize market sentiment[42] Outlook for January 2026 - Key macroeconomic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations in January 2026[51] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026, is expected to provide clarity on the monetary policy path for the first half of the year, influencing market volatility[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term value enhancement of special fuels and gases in commercial aerospace, recommending Jiufeng Energy as a key investment opportunity. The company has made significant progress in supplying special fuels and gases for the Hainan commercial aerospace launch site, with production starting in 2025 and multiple successful launches already supported [4] - The first batch of national-level zero-carbon park construction lists has been published, involving 52 parks, with guidelines for energy supply optimization and infrastructure planning to meet zero-carbon goals [4] Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Price**: The average national grid purchase price in November 2025 decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 2.8% month-on-month [4][38] - **Coal Price**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 678 RMB/ton, down 11.37% year-on-year and 0.44% week-on-week [4][46] - **Water Conditions**: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 170.59 meters as of December 31, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing a year-on-year decrease of 27% and 5.3%, respectively [4][53] - **Electricity Consumption**: Total electricity consumption from January to November 2025 was 9.46 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [4][13] - **Power Generation**: Cumulative power generation from January to November 2025 was 8.86 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][23] - **Installed Capacity**: As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.52 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [4][48] Investment Recommendations - **Green Power**: Focus on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Sanxia Energy, with a strong recommendation for Longjing Environmental Protection [4] - **Thermal Power**: Explore the reliability and flexibility value of thermal power, with attention to Huaneng International and Huadian International [4] - **Hydropower**: Recommend Changjiang Power due to low costs and strong cash flow [4] - **Nuclear Power**: Highlight China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power as key growth opportunities [4] - **Solar Assets and Charging Stations**: Suggest companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group for potential value reassessment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry PMI has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, indicating a potential turning point for the real estate chain in 2026. The stability of infrastructure investment is deemed necessary amidst declining real estate investment expectations [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side adjustments in the cement industry, with a focus on the exit of outdated capacities and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 [8][19]. - The glass market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a notable decline in average prices compared to the previous year, suggesting ongoing challenges in demand and supply dynamics [46][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.8 RMB/ton, down 1.2 RMB/ton from last week and down 53.8 RMB/ton from the same period in 2024. Regions with price increases include Guangdong (+5.0 RMB/ton) and Central South (+1.7 RMB/ton), while declines were noted in the Yangtze River Basin (-2.1 RMB/ton) and Southwest (-9.0 RMB/ton) [14][15]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from last week but up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average cement shipment rate is 40.3%, down 1.1 percentage points from last week and down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [19][21]. 2. Glass Market Overview - The average price for float glass is 1121.3 RMB/ton, a decrease of 18.8 RMB/ton from last week and down 270.4 RMB/ton from the same period in 2024. The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 53.78 million heavy boxes, down 155,000 boxes from last week but up 1.361 million boxes year-on-year [46][51]. - The report indicates that the supply of float glass is under pressure, with production lines being shut down due to losses, which may lead to price rebounds in the future as demand stabilizes [45][46]. 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastic applications, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [8]. - The report suggests that the profitability of leading companies in the fiberglass sector may improve due to structural demand and new applications, enhancing their competitive advantages [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the affordable beverage market, with a focus on high-quality products priced around 6 RMB (approximately 1 USD) [15] - The company has established a robust supply chain and a unique market position through its "high-quality and affordable" brand strategy, which has resonated well with consumers [15] - The report forecasts significant growth in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 58.5 billion, 65.2 billion, and 73.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates over 46,000 stores globally, making it the largest beverage chain in terms of store count, with a product output ranking first in China and second globally [15] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 81.14% of shares, which enhances management stability and strategic alignment [24] 2. Business Model - Revenue primarily comes from the sale of goods and equipment to franchisees, with 94% of revenue derived from product sales [33] - The company has a vertically integrated supply chain, allowing for cost advantages and efficient operations, which contribute to a stable gross margin above 30% [34] 3. Market Position and Growth Potential - The affordable beverage segment is expected to continue growing rapidly, driven by increasing consumer demand and market penetration in lower-tier cities [15] - The company aims to expand its store count to approximately 70,000 in China and 10,000 to 15,000 in Southeast Asia, with potential growth in the Americas as well [15] 4. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, projecting total revenue to reach 39.635 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.33% from 2023 to 2027 [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 15.40 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.81 [1]