证券研究报告 创新药行业专题研究报告 创新突破，出海拓疆 证券分析师 ：朱国广 证券分析师 ：张翀翯 证券分析师 ：郑川川 执业证书编号： S0600524060002 执业证书编号： S0600524120008 执业证书编号： S0600520070004 联系邮箱： zhugg@dwzq.com.com 联系邮箱： zhangchh@dwzq.com.cn 联系邮箱： zhengcc@dwzq.com.cn 二零二五年六月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 ➢ 三大因素共振，2025年为创新药至少3年行情的元年。其一创新药重磅BD有序落地，首付款屡创新高。MNC从外部购买分子，中国的占比从2017年的0%约提升至42%， 美国成为中国BD出海的最活跃市场之一，三生制药PD1/VEGF双抗与辉瑞首付款高达12.5亿美金，再创创新药与MNC合作纪录。随在国内患者多临床成本低、康方生物 AK112国内临床数据在海外可以复数、科创板等IPO及再融资重启等因素推动，BD数量将会持续爆发、其价格/价值有望向欧美看齐；其二2025年百济神州、信达生物生物 扭亏、2026年更多公司盈利；其三国内创新药环境边际 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The historical review of global trade indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade confrontations, potentially replacing tariffs [1][10] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises believe that due to fundamental conflicts, the Sino-US trade negotiations may experience significant ups and downs, necessitating ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][10] - If tariffs fail to achieve their primary objectives, the US government may resort to more challenges in non-tariff barriers and exchange rates, drawing parallels from past trade competition phases [1][10] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The short-term outlook suggests that the RMB central parity may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of dual-directional fluctuations in the USD/CNY exchange rate [2][12] - The ECI index indicates a slight recovery in supply and demand, but the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, reflecting weak overall economic momentum [14] - The significant drop in US imports in April suggests that the "import rush" effect from tariff policies may be waning, impacting trade dynamics [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income and ABS Market - The current city investment ABS market is primarily dominated by enterprise ABS products, with a weighted average coupon rate around 3.25%, which is relatively low compared to other credit bonds [3][18] - The ABS market shows a significant mid-to-long-term characteristic, aligning with the cash flow characteristics of underlying assets like infrastructure projects [18][19] - The distribution of ABS products indicates a concentration in high-quality issuers, with a notable presence of AAA and AA+ rated products, reflecting a focus on credit quality and risk management [19] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - China Ping An is expected to maintain a stable profit forecast, with projected net profits of 135.2 billion, 154.4 billion, and 177 billion RMB for 2025-2027, indicating a low valuation relative to its peers [6] - Nvidia's FY2026 Q1 report shows a revenue of 44.06 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 69.2%, driven by strong demand in the data center business, despite challenges from H20 restrictions [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross profit margins and expresses optimism regarding the dual resonance of the general robotics and intelligent driving sectors [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 330 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.7% [7] - The report anticipates revenue growth for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 2.63 billion, 4.20 billion, and 5.25 billion yuan respectively, with an upward adjustment in net profit forecasts for the same period [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of 100 million yuan, with a narrowing loss compared to the previous year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 23.5%, an increase of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s ADAS product revenue was 229 million yuan, down 25.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1% [7] Product Development - The company launched new products based on the digital EM platform, enhancing its product line and competitive edge [7] - The general robotics segment saw a revenue increase of 87.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 52.1% [7] - The report notes significant orders in the robotics sector, including a major contract for 1.2 million lawn mowing robots [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing penetration of laser radar in vehicles, with a focus on expanding its customer base [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of product integration, highlighting the launch of the Active Camera platform [7] - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive product offerings and customer relationships to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the robotics and intelligent driving markets [7]

歌礼制药-B（01672.HK） ASC40痤疮适应症 III期临床达到所有终点， 疗效数据优秀 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·药品及生物科技(HS) 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 56.69 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 40.00 | 100.00 | | 同比(%) | 4.81 | (97.74) | (100.00) | | 150.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (144.72) | (300.94) | (454.44) | (469.72) | (445.21) | | 同比(%) | 54.04 | (107.95) | (51.01) | (3.36) | 5.22 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.15) | (0.31) | (0.47) | (0.48) | (0.46) | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (54.06) | (26.00) | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin and expresses optimism regarding the dual resonance of general robotics and intelligent driving [1] - The company reported a revenue of 330 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.7% [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.5%, an increase of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 2,631 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 59.53% [1] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is -232.76 million yuan, improving from -481.83 million yuan in 2024 [1] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -2.3 billion, 1.4 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan respectively [7] Product and Market Development - The company’s ADAS products generated revenue of 229 million yuan in Q1 2025, down 25.2% year-on-year and 42.3% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The general robotics segment saw revenue growth of 87.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 73 million yuan [7] - The company has secured significant orders in the robotics sector, including a 1.2 million unit order for lawn mowing robots [7] Financial Metrics - The closing price on June 4, 2025, corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.7 for 2025 [1] - The company’s projected gross margin is expected to improve to 24.00% in 2025 [8] - The asset-liability ratio is forecasted to be 34.24% in 2025 [8]

证券研究报告 2025年6月大类资产配置展望 微澜蓄势，整装待发 证券分析师 ：孙婷 执业证书编号：S0600524120001 联系邮箱：sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2025年6月4日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ✓ 2025年6月大类资产配置展望 ✓ A股和港股——等待时空条件的变化： ✓ 美股和黄金——持续产生对冲效应： ✓ 国债和美债——震荡偏强格局： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 ➢ 市场整体趋势：预计6月A股市场将呈现震荡调整格局，短期内调整空间有限但震荡时间可能较长；港股市场整体节奏与A股保持一致， 但筹码结构相对健康，表现可能优于A股，呈现宽幅震荡走势。 ➢ 风格与板块表现：6月上旬大盘红利风格相对占优，成长板块可能相对较弱；6月中旬开始，红利风格可能进入相对逆风期，成长风格 有望获得相对收益的优势，但需关注海内外事件驱动因素对风格变化的提前影响。 ➢ 内外部因素影响：国内短期内进一步出台利好政策的可能 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250604 负 Carry 困境：海外机构如何破局—低利率 时代系列（五） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 负 carry 冲击进行时：负 carry 的成因通常源于资产负债久期错配与利 率波动：当负债端成本因短期利率抬升或刚性兑付压力上升，而资产端 因长期债券收益率被锁定或下行时，机构面临收益倒挂风险。海外资管 机构的历史经验显示，负 carry 风险集中爆发于特定利率周期，典型触 发场景通常在长期低利率环境后，经历利率快速上行周期。例如，2022 年美联储加息后，美国银行业因前期拉长债券久期，导致资产端收益率 被锁定于历史低位，而负债端存款利率随市场利率快速攀升，形成由于 负债端成本上行而造成的"利率上行+负 carry"压力。日本方面，自 1990 年代经济泡沫破灭后进入低增长、低通胀周期，政策利率持续下行。2016 年日本央行实施负利率政策后，10 年期日本国债收益率与存款利率出 现倒挂，形成由于资产端收益下行而造成的"利率下行+负 carry"环境。 以国内视角来看，当前我国面临与发达经济体历史情形相似的挑战 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250604 结构化融资再观察：城投 ABS 市场回顾与前 瞻（市场篇） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 2025 年 06 月 04 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《结构化融资再观察：城投 ABS 市场 回顾与前瞻（政策篇）》 2025-06-03 《周观：交易主线缺位，债市难逃脱 震荡行情（2025 年第 21 期）》 ◼ 存量城投 ABS 券种结构及票面利率分布：1）从债券种类来看，当前城 投 ABS 市场呈现以企业 ABS 产品为主导，少量 ABN 产品补充的格局， 表明证监会主管的 ABS 因其备案制的高效性、基础资产类型的灵活性， 成为城投平台资产证券化融资的主流方式，而交易商协会主管的 ABN 因依托银行间市场发行并采用注册制管理，且其流动性受限于银行间市 场投资者结构，非标属性较强，因此在当下城投平台融资端严监管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - On June 4, Ping An announced the issuance of HKD 11.765 billion convertible bonds to support capital needs and strategic development in healthcare and elderly care [2] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance the company's capital strength at a lower cost, optimizing the capital structure and supporting business development [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be CNY 135.2 billion, CNY 154.4 billion, and CNY 177.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue (CNY million) is projected to be 913,789 in 2023, 1,028,925 in 2024, and expected to grow to 1,215,854 by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2024 to 2027 [7][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million) is forecasted to decline by 22.8% in 2023, followed by a significant recovery of 47.8% in 2024, and steady growth of 6.8%, 14.2%, and 14.6% in the subsequent years [7][9] - The estimated PEV for 2025 is 0.65x, indicating that the current market valuation remains low [7][9] Market Data - The closing price of Ping An is CNY 53.85, with a market capitalization of CNY 980.62 billion [5] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 1.04, and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 7.75 for 2024 [5][9] Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is 163.7%, and the comprehensive solvency ratio is 227.9%, reflecting a significant increase from the beginning of the year [7]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250604 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20250530 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 06 月 04 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20250430》 2025-05-06 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 5 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 18.37%，年化波 动率为 8.79%，信息比率为 2.09，月度胜率为 77.94%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07%。 ◼ 5 月份"日与 ...