证券研究报告·公司点评报告·燃气Ⅱ 佛燃能源（002911） 2025 年度业绩快报点评：业务多元发展业绩 超预期，保证股东回报 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 25,538 | 31,589 | 33,754 | 36,905 | 38,808 | | 同比（%） | 34.96 | 23.70 | 6.85 | 9.34 | 5.16 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 844.45 | 853.12 | 1,000.68 | 1,070.50 | 1,117.39 | | 同比（%） | 28.87 | 1.03 | 17.30 | 6.98 | 4.38 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.82 | 0.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.85 | 20.64 | 17.59 | 16.45 | 15.76 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiufeng Energy, highlighting its potential in the commercial aerospace sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is transitioning into a phase of scaled launches, with supply capabilities continuously being released. This shift is characterized by an increase in launch frequency and demand for launch services [9]. - The cost structure of launches is evolving, with a clear path towards cost reduction through high payload capacity and reusability of rockets. The unit launch cost in China is expected to decrease significantly from approximately 115,000 RMB per kilogram in 2020 to around 45,000 RMB per kilogram by 2029 [28]. - The demand for propellants and special gases is becoming increasingly rigid, with their value and share in the overall cost structure expected to rise over time. Liquid oxygen and methane are emerging as preferred propellant choices due to their advantages in reusability and operational efficiency [37][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is moving from a capability-building phase to a scaled launch phase, driven by the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellation construction [9]. - China's launch infrastructure has developed a comprehensive system, including multiple inland and coastal launch sites, enhancing overall launch capacity [10]. 2. Cost Structure and Reduction Pathways - The cost structure of launches is being dissected, revealing that consumable elements like propellants are becoming more significant as launch frequencies increase. The rigid nature of these costs is highlighted as a core constraint in the industry [17][19]. - The unit cost of launching satellites is a critical economic indicator, with current costs in China being higher than those of international competitors like SpaceX. The report indicates that the unit launch cost for the Falcon 9 has decreased to approximately 20,000 RMB per kilogram [23][25]. 3. Propellant and Special Gas Demand - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of propellant selection in the context of reusability and operational stability. Liquid oxygen and methane are positioned as the leading choices for future rocket designs due to their cleaner combustion and lower maintenance requirements [39][41]. - Jiufeng Energy is recommended for its strategic positioning in the supply of special gases and propellants, which are expected to see long-term growth in value and market share [1][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiufeng Energy, highlighting its potential in the commercial aerospace sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is transitioning into a phase of scaled launches, with supply capabilities being continuously released. This shift is characterized by an increase in launch frequency and demand for launch services [9]. - The cost structure of launch services is evolving, with a clear path towards cost reduction through high payload capacity and reusable technology. The unit cost of launching is expected to decrease significantly by 2029 [29]. - The demand for propellants and special gases is becoming increasingly rigid, with their value and share in the overall cost structure expected to rise over time [38]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is moving from a capability-building phase to a scaled launch phase, driven by the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellation construction [9]. - China's launch infrastructure has developed a comprehensive system, including multiple launch sites that enhance operational efficiency and specialization [10][11]. 2. Cost Constraints and Reduction Pathways - The cost structure of launch services is divided into fixed, semi-fixed, and variable costs, with propellants and special gases representing the most rigid costs [19][22]. - The unit cost of launching is currently high, but it is projected to decrease from approximately 115,000 RMB per kilogram in 2020 to around 45,000 RMB per kilogram by 2029 [29][24]. - High payload capacity and reusable technology are recognized as key methods for reducing costs in the industry [29]. 3. Propellant and Special Gas Demand - The choice of rocket fuel is evolving, with liquid oxygen and methane emerging as a prominent option due to their cleaner combustion and lower carbon buildup, which is advantageous for high-frequency reuse [39][40]. - The report outlines the comparative advantages of different rocket fuel technologies, emphasizing the long-term coexistence of liquid oxygen and kerosene alongside liquid oxygen and methane [41][42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Jiufeng Energy is recommended for its strategic positioning in the supply of special fuels and gases for commercial aerospace, with expected net profits of 1.56 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.13 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027 [1].

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 北交所定期报告 20260121 服务器 CPU 面临提价，北证 50 上涨 0.14% 2026 年 01 月 21 日 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究： 《沪深北交易所提高融资保证金最低 比例，北证 50 上涨 0.98%》 2026-01-14 《工信部印发<推动工业互联网平台 高质量发展行动方案（2026—2028 年）>，北证 50 下跌 2.50%》 2026-01-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast for 2025 aligns with market expectations, driven by new product contributions and the growth of the AI industry and global data center construction [8] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 18.8-21.5 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-60% [8] - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the upcoming demand for 1.6T optical modules and has established a strong partnership with NVIDIA [8] - The company is also well-positioned in the commercial year of CPO (Chiplet-based Processing Unit) and is actively developing new products for this market [8] - The overseas production capacity is sufficient and gradually increasing, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth [8] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 20.1 billion, RMB 31.9 billion, and RMB 41.8 billion respectively [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,252 million in 2024 to RMB 10,669 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.48% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2,015 million in 2025 to RMB 4,179 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 31.03% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.73 in 2024 to RMB 5.38 in 2027 [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.82 in 2025 to 35.11 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [9]

买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,939 | 3,252 | 5,182 | 8,108 | 10,669 | | 同比（%） | 62.04 | 67.74 | 59.35 | 56.48 | 31.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 729.88 | 1,343.52 | 2,014.97 | 3,189.18 | 4,178.85 | | 同比（%） | 81.14 | 84.07 | 49.98 | 58.27 | 31.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.94 | 1.73 | 2.59 | 4.10 | 5.38 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 201.02 | 109.21 | 72.82 | 46.01 | 35.11 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·通信设备 天孚通信（300394） 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The establishment of the HVDC subsidiary marks the beginning of a second growth curve for the company, with expectations of significant revenue and profit growth in the coming years [7] - The company is expected to leverage its strong R&D capabilities in power electronics to enter the HVDC power supply market, targeting high-power direct current charging modules and related products [7] - The management team, led by a new general manager with extensive experience in technology and clean energy, is anticipated to drive the subsidiary's growth and attract external resources [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,376 million in 2023, with a growth forecast of 39.24% year-on-year, followed by a decline in 2025 to 1,114 million, and a recovery to 1,487 million in 2026, and 2,313 million in 2027 [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 268.38 million in 2023, with a projected decline in 2025 to 151.65 million, followed by a significant recovery to 261 million in 2026 and 466.71 million in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 6.38 in 2023, declining to 3.61 in 2025, and then recovering to 6.21 in 2026 and 11.10 in 2027 [1][8] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 36.16 in 2023, increasing to 64.00 in 2025, and then decreasing to 37.18 in 2026 and 20.79 in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 9,705.02 million, with a circulating A-share market value of 1,985.33 million [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The establishment of the HVDC subsidiary marks the beginning of a second growth curve for the company, with expectations of significant revenue and profit growth in the coming years [7] - The company is expected to leverage its strong R&D capabilities in power electronics to enter the HVDC power supply market, focusing on high-power direct current charging modules and related products [7] - The management team, led by a new general manager with extensive experience in technology and clean energy, is anticipated to drive the subsidiary's growth and attract external resources [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,487 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 33.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 261 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant increase of 72.11% compared to the previous year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 6.21 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio of 37.18 [1] Market Data - The company's closing price is 230.78 yuan, with a market capitalization of 9,705.02 million yuan [5] - The price-to-book ratio stands at 4.99, indicating the market's valuation relative to the company's net assets [5] Financial Health - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.32%, suggesting a relatively low level of financial leverage [6] - The total assets are projected to grow to 3,610 million yuan by 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in the company's financial position [8]

Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][15] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and industrial GDP growth at 4.5%. Exports increased by 6.1%, while fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% [1][15] - Q4 price recovery was noted, but remained weak, with actual GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8% [1][15] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The semiconductor equipment ETF is recommended as a key investment target due to policy and performance dimensions [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its momentum, despite recent adjustments [21] Company Analysis - Zhongrong Electric (301031) is projected to exceed profit expectations for 2025, with net profits revised to 420 million, 600 million, and 800 million for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 122%, 44%, and 34% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [11] - Junda Co., Ltd. (002865) is experiencing phase losses but is accelerating its layout for new growth points, with net profit forecasts adjusted to -1.27 billion, 470 million, and 1.04 billion for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [12] - Tonghuashun (300033) has its profit forecast raised to 3 billion, 3.8 billion, and 4.8 billion for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 67%, 26%, and 26% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - Putailai (603659) is expected to see net profits of 2.39 billion, 3.1 billion, and 4.02 billion for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 101%, 30%, and 30%, maintaining a "buy" rating [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Robovan sector, particularly emphasizing the potential of L4 RoboX technology in 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The 2026 smart technology landscape differs from previous years, focusing more on AI logic and software opportunities rather than hardware and consumer sales [3]. - Key catalysts for Robovan's growth include model iterations, increased RoboX deployments, and supportive policy developments [3]. - The report highlights the successful penetration of Robovan in the express delivery sector, with expectations for expansion into fast-moving consumer goods, durable goods, and chain restaurant applications [3]. - Investment recommendations suggest a strong focus on L4 RoboX as a primary investment theme for 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report draws parallels between the current AI-driven transformation in transportation and the previous 4G mobile internet wave, noting that AI will enhance hardware capabilities and replace existing transportation methods [4][12]. - The report identifies Robovan as a key player in urban logistics, with significant potential for replacing traditional delivery vehicles [4][12]. Robovan Market Dynamics - Robovan's successful deployment in express delivery has led to approximately 27,000 units delivered in the first 11 months of 2025, primarily in the express sector [3]. - The report outlines the expected growth of Robovan in various logistics scenarios, including fast-moving consumer goods and durable goods delivery [3][46]. Technological Advancements - The report discusses the technological advancements in Robovan, including hardware and algorithm improvements that reduce costs and enhance operational efficiency [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of a robust supply chain and the integration of AI technologies to facilitate Robovan's commercial viability [23][24]. Policy Support - The report highlights ongoing government support for Robovan technology, with numerous policies aimed at facilitating the deployment and commercialization of autonomous delivery vehicles [12][19]. - It notes that over 250 cities have opened public road rights for Robovan, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for growth [20]. Market Potential - The urban delivery market is projected to reach 1.4292 trillion yuan in 2022, with Robovan expected to capture a significant share due to its efficiency in the supply chain [56]. - The report identifies that 64% of the urban delivery market consists of scenarios suitable for Robovan, indicating substantial growth opportunities [56].