Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Domestic consumption shows improvement with a year-on-year decline in passenger car retail sales narrowing to 1.2%[3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high for December 2023, increasing by 23.2%[3] - Movie box office revenue surged due to the release of a popular animated film, contributing to a 5.4% increase in overall entertainment spending[3] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - Seasonal production continues to decline, with a decrease of 2.92 percentage points in production intensity[3] - Real estate and infrastructure sectors remain weak, with production intensity at 32.55%[3] - The chemical industry shows varied performance, with PTA production at 73.81%[3] Price Performance - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a decline in pork prices while fruit and vegetable prices continue to rise, with CPI growth at 1.06%[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects rising prices in crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI crude oil prices up by 2.61%[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are increasing, influenced by U.S. employment and inflation data[3] - Hassett is likely to succeed the current Fed chair, with a clear bias towards easing monetary policy[4]

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Group 1 - The report suggests a cautious investment strategy in the convertible bond market due to reduced liquidity and market volatility, recommending a defensive approach with a focus on large-cap, debt-oriented products and value styles [2][50]. - The recommended allocation includes 70% in defensive sectors such as infrastructure, military, refining, and banking, while 30% is allocated to high-elasticity sectors like consumption and technology, which may benefit from potential policy support [2][50]. - The report highlights a recommended convertible bond portfolio for December, including specific bonds such as Shanlu Convertible Bond and Shenghong Convertible Bond, among others [2][50]. Group 2 - The report reviews the convertible bond market in November, noting a 2.2% decline in the stock market and a 0.7% decline in convertible bonds, with a shift towards defensive sectors [4][6]. - It indicates that the convertible bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with a focus on the continuation of style shifts and policy impacts from upcoming central meetings [35][46]. - The report emphasizes the performance of various sectors, with steel bonds leading gains at 11.8%, while non-bank financials and telecommunications experienced declines [19][22]. Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of quantitative strategies, noting that low-volatility strategies outperformed high-volatility strategies in the recent period, with year-to-date returns of 16.55% for low-volatility strategies [52][53]. - It highlights the importance of low-price factors in convertible bond selection, which have historically provided a safety margin while allowing for upside potential [53][55]. - The report provides insights into the market structure, indicating a significant reduction in the overall market size of convertible bonds, which has implications for future valuations and investment strategies [35][39].

产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 "十五五"系列研究报告 产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 2025 证 12 证 04 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 8096 证zhangjun _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 许冬石 证010-8357 -4134 证xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130515030003 研究助理：刘小逸 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2025 证证证证证证证证证证证证证·证证 证证证证证证证证证证 ...

Investment Rating - The public utility industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating [1] Core Insights - The growth rate of electricity consumption is accelerating, with significant regional differentiation in the results of competitive bidding for mechanism electricity prices [1] - The thermal power generation has shifted from decline to growth, with an increase in electricity consumption [6] - The competitive bidding results for mechanism electricity prices show notable regional disparities, with some areas experiencing price changes ranging from -90% to +63% [6] Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights the acceleration in electricity consumption growth and the regional differences in electricity pricing mechanisms [1][9] Industry Data - The report provides data on carbon trading market conditions, indicating a price of 70.14 and a growth of 14.80% [19] - It also includes electricity industry data showing a 10.4% increase in electricity consumption in October 2025, with specific figures for various categories [22] Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - The report suggests investment opportunities based on the observed trends in electricity consumption and pricing mechanisms [6][7]

行业月报 ·公用事业行业 用电量增速加快，各地机制电价竞价结果分化明显 ǒǒ ➂≈㬲屄≢⛭㐶㛙⢈ 2025 11 30 核心观点 公用事业行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 橧愰⛤ 010 -80927673 taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130522030001 㲪㓔➗ 010 -80927656 liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130523070002 䰩争⛮䠜睵湚㥼 mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025 11 28 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12/2 2025/1/2 2025/2/2 2025/3/2 2025/4/2 2025/5/2 2025/6/2 2025/7/2 2025/8/2 2025/9/2 2025/10/2 2025/11/2 SW 300 相关研究 1. _Q3 2._Q3 3._ 7 www.chinastock.com.cn z 火电电量由降转增，用电量增速加快。 10 8002 7.9% 9 6.4pct 10 +7.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Dongpeng Beverage [2][5] Core Insights - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of up to 66.44 million H shares, which is expected to enhance its long-term value [5] - The issuance is projected to have a manageable dilution effect on earnings per share (EPS), estimated at around 11% post-issuance, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 26X for 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation [5] - The funds raised from the H share issuance will be utilized for enhancing overseas market supply chain infrastructure, brand promotion, and exploring investment opportunities in foreign markets [5] Financial Performance Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 15,839 million yuan in 2024 to 32,658 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.67% [2][7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 3,327 million yuan in 2024 to 7,096 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 22.90% [2][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 45%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][7] Market Position and Growth Potential - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned to benefit from the expanding functional beverage market in China, with significant growth potential compared to competitors like Nongfu Spring and Master Kong [5] - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and expanding into international markets, particularly Southeast Asia, with plans to establish a presence in the U.S. and Middle East in the long term [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory dynamics and sales performance as the new fiscal year begins, particularly around the Chinese New Year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by deepening chip layouts, which will open up high growth potential for performance [1]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 1,592 million, with a decline to 1,327 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to 1,738 million in 2026 and reaching 2,380 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.94% from 2025 to 2027 [2][7]. - The report highlights a strong commitment to performance, with expected EPS growth from 0.07 in 2025 to 0.35 in 2027, indicating a robust recovery and profitability trajectory [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a decline of 16.61% in 2025, followed by a rebound of 30.93% in 2026 and 36.94% in 2027 [2][7]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from 100 million in 2025 to 325 million in 2027, showcasing improved operational efficiency [7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit margin from 3.9% in 2025 to 12.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [7]. Market Performance - The industry is projected to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a relative performance graph indicating a positive trend [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic acquisitions and collaborations within the industry to enhance competitive positioning and market share [6]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts express confidence in the industry's growth potential, citing strong R&D capabilities and synergies with core business operations as key drivers for future success [6][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the bond market fluctuated more significantly during the policy window period, with the overall yield oscillating upward and the curve slightly steepening. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. As of November 28, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5BP to 1.84%, and the 1-year Treasury yield went up 2BP to close at 1.4%, with the term spread widening by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - In December, attention should be paid to the statements of key central meetings, the subsequent operation scale of the central bank's restarted Treasury bond trading, the actual implementation of the public offering fee new regulations, and the marginal constraints of the "ceiling and floor" state of the 10-year bond on the current market pricing of 1.85%. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared. It is recommended to seize the current key position with high cost - effectiveness [4][5][66]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Slightly Steepened - In November, affected by factors such as capital - side fluctuations, the continued play of the stock - bond seesaw effect, and repeated policy expectations, the bond market's volatility intensified. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. The term spread widened by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - Different maturities of the Treasury yield curve showed structural differentiation, with the ultra - short and medium - long - term yields rising more significantly. The implied tax rate of policy - bank bonds generally rebounded [9]. - Overseas, the market expected that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in December was 15.3%, while the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut rose to around 85%. As of November 28, compared with the end of October, the US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.02%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion narrowed by 14BP to around 218BP [10]. - Throughout November, the bond market showed different trends in each week. The first week saw an oscillating upward trend in yields; the second week presented a narrow - range consolidation pattern; the third week showed a differentiation between short - and long - term yields; and the fourth week witnessed a steep upward shift in yields [16][19][22]. II. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Pay Attention to the Statements of Key Central Meetings in December and Whether Institutions Will Make a Pre - emptive Move at the Year - End - **Fundamentals**: Continue to focus on the impact of inflation improvement, the resilience of exports under high - base effects, the improvement of PMI sentiment, the possible warming of real - estate supply and demand data, and the possible improvement of the shortfall in social financing [2][23]. - **Supply Side**: It is expected that the net supply of government bonds in December will be around 650 billion yuan, basically falling back to a relatively low level within the year. The use of the remaining quota will drive the continued issuance of special bonds [2][42]. - **Funding Side**: Although the scale of government bond issuance will fall to a low level within the year, the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit next month may put pressure on the liquidity of the banking system. However, the central bank's attitude of care is clear, and it is expected that the funding side will be generally balanced and loose [2][46]. - **Policy Side**: Focus on the two major economic meetings in December. It is expected that there will be updates on policies related to broad - money, active fiscal policies, consumption, real estate, and debt resolution. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased [3][56]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In November, various institutions generally increased their holdings, with the allocation - oriented investors increasing their positions while the trading - oriented investors reducing their scale. In December, pay attention to the possible marginal redemptions of wealth management products after the formal implementation of the public offering sales fee new regulations, the trading games of public funds and other trading - oriented investors, the possible increase in holdings by wealth management products and rural commercial banks in the banking system, and the allocation layout of insurance - based allocation - oriented investors [3][59][60]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market Will Be Mainly Volatile, and Seize the Allocation Cost - Effectiveness at the Short - Term Ceiling of 1.85% - Consider multiple aspects such as fundamentals, supply, funding, policies, and institutional behavior. In December, the bond market is expected to be mainly volatile. The allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity [66][67][68]. III. Important Economic Calendar for December The report lists important economic indicators to be announced in December and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, CPI, PPI, and other data [70].

Core Insights - The ESG strategies experienced a pullback this week, with the ESG screening strategy and the ESG sentiment integration strategy both showing negative performance relative to the benchmark [1][5][9]. ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG screening strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, showed a decline of 0.80% as of November 28, 2025, compared to a 1.64% increase in the CSI 300 benchmark, resulting in an excess return of -2.44% [5][8]. - Over the last month, the total return was -0.4%, with a relative total return of 2%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -3%. The Sharpe ratio was -0.97 [5][8]. Performance Statistics - Total Return: 0% (last month), -1% (last 3 months), 5% (last 6 months), 12% (last year), 5% (year-to-date), 75% (since inception) [8]. - Relative Total Return: 2% (last month), -2% (last 3 months), -13% (last 6 months), -3% (last year), -10% (year-to-date), 59% (since inception) [8]. - Maximum Drawdown: -3% (last month), -3% (last 3 months), -4% (last 6 months), -8% (last year), -7% (year-to-date), -8% (since inception) [8]. ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - The ESG sentiment integration strategy, based on the report published on February 28, 2025, declined by 0.88% as of November 28, 2025, compared to the CSI 300 benchmark's 1.64% increase, leading to an excess return of -2.52% [9][12]. - The total return for the last month was 1%, with a relative total return of 3%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -1%. The Sharpe ratio was 1.79 [9][12]. Performance Statistics - Total Return: 1% (last month), 1% (last 3 months), 5% (last 6 months), 16% (last year), 8% (year-to-date), 123% (since inception) [12]. - Relative Total Return: 3% (last month), 1% (last 3 months), -13% (last 6 months), 1% (last year), -7% (year-to-date), 106% (since inception) [12]. - Maximum Drawdown: -1% (last month), -4% (last 3 months), -6% (last 6 months), -6% (last year), -6% (year-to-date), -10% (since inception) [12].