Group 1: Key Signals for 2026 Opening Up - The overall keyword shifts from "stability" to "diversity" and "win-win" in international cooperation[2] - Emphasis on institutional opening, particularly in the service sector and free trade pilot zones, transitioning from "quantitative" to "qualitative" changes[9] - "Integration" in trade and investment is identified as the future development direction[11] Group 2: Key Support Points for Implementation - Strengthening the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port as a new high ground for institutional opening, with a focus on financial and trade investment openness[18] - Promoting synchronization of domestic and foreign trade policies, standard recognition, and smooth capital flow to facilitate integrated development[19] - Enhancing the level of China's service industry while reasonably reducing opening restrictions to promote service trade and exports[19]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, indicating a potential recovery in valuations as the sector transitions to high-quality development [4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and accelerate the construction of a new development model for the sector [4]. - The average transaction price for residential properties in China as of October 2025 was 9,588.1 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.78% [4]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 396 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of implementing city-specific policies to manage new housing supply and reduce inventory levels [4]. - The reform of the housing provident fund system is expected to expand its applicability, enhancing support for housing purchases and rental payments [4]. - The report anticipates a dual supply model of both commercial and affordable housing to meet diverse residential needs [4]. - The conference also called for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, which could benefit shopping centers and service consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference's focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes measures to control new housing supply and manage inventory effectively [4]. - The report notes the necessity of encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing to address basic residential needs [4]. New Development Model - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the housing provident fund system, which aim to broaden its usage for various housing-related expenses [4]. - The implementation of new standards for residential projects is expected to enhance property management and service quality [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including: - Strong developers: China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others [4]. - Quality property management: Greentown Service [4]. - Leading commercial real estate: Hang Lung Properties [4]. - Major construction firms: Greentown Management Holdings [4]. - Leading real estate agencies: Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [4].

Economic Projections - The projected change in real GDP for 2025 is 1.7%, increasing to 2.3% in 2026, and stabilizing at 2.0% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, with a long-term average of 1.8%[6] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.2% by 2028, maintaining a long-term rate of 4.2%[6] - PCE inflation is projected to decline from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, with a long-term target of 2.0%[6] Federal Funds Rate - The Federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% in 2025, decreasing to 3.1% by 2027 and stabilizing at 3.0% in the long run[6] - The September projection for the Federal funds rate was consistent with the current projections, indicating stability in monetary policy expectations[6] Market Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 22.1% probability of the Federal funds rate being between 325-350 basis points by January 2026, with probabilities increasing for subsequent meetings[11] - By March 2026, the probability of the rate being between 350-375 basis points rises to 52.0%[11] Inflation and Economic Stability - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2028, aligning with the long-term inflation target[6] - The projections suggest a gradual stabilization of inflation rates, contributing to overall economic stability[6]

美国启动"创世纪计划"，以 AI 驱动科研革命 —— 数字经济双周报（2025 年第 22 期） 2025 年 12 月 10 日 核心观点 ⚫ 本期焦点：美国近期启动的"创世纪计划"显示其试图通过人工智能全面 重塑国家科研体系，并在全球科技竞争中保持主导地位。 该计划由总统行政令推出，由能源部负责执行，重点是整合国家实验室的超级 计算机、科研数据与安全云环境，建设统一的"美国科学与安全平台"。平台 将支撑高性能计算、科学基础模型与自动化实验等能力，使科研人员能够在统 一框架 下利用 数十年 积累 的 实验数 据开展 模型训 练与 实 验推演 ，提高 科研效 率。计划同时推动企业深度参与，OpenAI、谷歌、微软、英伟达等公司获得 优先合作机会，并在标准制定中拥有更大影响力，企业也将以算力和工程能力 反哺政府项目。 当前，欧洲、中国等地区都在积极发展"AI for Science"。美国也尝试通过 制度与 资源整 合把人 工智 能 纳入科 研主链 条，以 争取 下 一阶段 科学创 新的主 导权。 分析师 彭雅哲 ：010-80927607 ：pengyazhe_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师 ...

通胀还能持续回升吗？ —— 11 月物价数据解读 2025 证 12 证 10 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zha n gdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 宏观动态报告 ⚫ 1 1 月份 CPI 环比 微跌 0.1 %（前值 0.2%），同比上涨 0.7%（前值 0.2 %）， 其中翘尾因素较上月改善约 0.6 个百分点 。整体来看 翘尾因素叠加食品拖累 减弱是 CPI 回升主因 。证证证证证证证证 0.3% 证证证 0.7% 证证证证证证证 证证证证 -0.4% 证证证证证 2.9% (证证-4.4% )证证证 CPI 证证证证证 0.54 证 证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 0.2%证证证 -0.1% 证证证证证证证证证证证 0.1% 证 核心 CPI 环 ...

Group 1 - The December Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, aiming to stimulate new growth points and improve resource allocation efficiency [2][5][6] - The macro policy framework for 2026 will continue to focus on stability while promoting progress, with a shift towards enhancing quality and effectiveness in economic development [6][7] - The meeting outlines a clear path for industrial policy, prioritizing domestic demand and innovation, which will benefit sectors such as consumer goods, AI, digital economy, and new energy [8][11] Group 2 - The meeting provides initial guidance for A-share investment, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform, which will support market stability and investor confidence [11][12] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to detail specific fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, further activating market dynamics [11][12] - The report identifies two main investment themes: the transition to new productive forces and the recovery of manufacturing and resource sectors, alongside a focus on consumer-driven policies [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The meeting affirmed the economic work this year, indicating that the main goals of economic and social development will be smoothly achieved, with an expected high probability of achieving the 5% GDP growth target this year. It also set the direction for next year's economic work, emphasizing "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency", and prioritizing the activation and utilization of existing resources and the improvement of quality and efficiency [1]. - The macro - policy orientation will continue this year's overall direction, with an active and expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. It also emphasizes the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [1]. - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, and it is necessary to better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, paying attention to international peripheral disturbance risks [2]. - Continue to increase scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new - quality productivity, focusing on basic research, key core technology research, and promoting the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [3]. - The meeting did not mention real estate, and "systemic risks" were not mentioned in the risk prevention section, indicating that the current real estate market is weak but has passed the large - decline period, and the government's support for old driving forces may be reduced [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - meeting Situation and Next - year's Direction - This year's economic achievements include overall stable and progressive economic operation, the steady development of new - quality productivity, new steps in reform and opening - up, positive progress in risk resolution in key areas, and stronger people's livelihood security. The 5% GDP growth target is expected to be achieved. Next year, the focus will be on stability, quality improvement, and the activation of existing resources [1]. 3.2 Policy Orientation - **Macro - policy**: Continue the current active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasize the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. Incremental policies may be more refined [1]. - **Domestic demand policy**: Expand domestic demand, continue to optimize supply, and better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles. Subsidies will be inclined to service consumption, and supply optimization will be promoted [2]. - **Innovation policy**: Continue to drive the development of new - quality productivity through innovation, strengthen basic research and key core technology research, and promote the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [3]. - **Risk - prevention policy**: Actively and steadily resolve risks in key areas, but do not mention "systemic risks". The real estate market is not mentioned, indicating a reduced focus on the old driving forces [4]. 3.3 Bond Market Impact - The meeting's statement had a limited impact on the bond market. The yield of the 10 - year active bond showed a slight increase. More policy directions need to be关注 the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a higher probability of declining 5 - 10 trading days after the December meeting, and the probability of a continuous increase in medium - and long - term interest rates is low. Attention should be paid to the allocation value above the 1.85% key point [4].

"逆""跨"结合，提质增效 ——12 月政治局会议解读 2025 证 12 证 8 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 -8096 证zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 路自愿 证136-7105 -7587 证luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525070001 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the pure ESG strategy achieved an excess return of 5.01% in November 2025, indicating strong performance in the ESG investment space [1] - The ESG screening strategy (CSI 300) reported a total return of -0.4% for the latest month, with a relative total return of 2%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -3% [3][6] - The ESG sentiment integration strategy (CSI 300) achieved a total return of 1% for the latest month, with a relative total return of 3%, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -1% [7][10] Group 2 - The market performance in November showed that the pure ESG strategy, ESG & SOE strategy, and pure SOE strategy all generated excess returns, with the pure ESG strategy yielding the highest returns [12] - As of December 1, 2025, the cumulative return for the ESG & SOE strategy was 93.93%, while the pure SOE strategy had a cumulative return of 75.30%, and the pure ESG strategy reached 101.42% [12] - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 was 19,145 billion CNY, indicating an increase compared to previous values [17] Group 3 - The valuation situation shows that the PE ratio for the CSI 300 is at a high level, with a PE ratio of 21.85, while the SOE PE ratio is 10.36 and the national enterprise PE ratio is 10.17 [17] - The average daily trading volume for SOEs was 657 billion CNY, reflecting an increase from previous periods [17] - The national carbon market saw an increase in both transaction volume and price, with the closing price for carbon emission allowances at 59.65 CNY/ton as of December 1, 2025 [23]

Export Performance - In November, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.1%[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year export growth rate for November is 2.8%[5] - The increase in exports is supported by global economic recovery and market diversification, alongside a low base effect from last year[6] Import Trends - Imports in November totaled $218.67 billion, with a growth rate of 1.9%, slightly up from 1% previously[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year import growth rate for November is 0%[7] - Industrial production recovery and increased demand for certain commodities, such as grains (15.4% growth) and rubber (11.3% growth), supported import growth[7] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for November was $111.68 billion, an increase from $90.07 billion in the previous month[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU increased by 14.8%, significantly up from 0.9% previously, likely due to pre-Christmas shipping demands[15] - Exports to the US saw a larger decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28.6%, worsening from -25.2%[15] - Exports to Africa rebounded to 27.6%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[16] Product-Specific Insights - The export growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products improved, with automotive exports increasing by 53% and integrated circuits by 34.2%[22] - Labor-intensive products showed varying recovery, with a notable improvement in toys and textiles[24] Future Outlook - Cumulative export growth from January to November was 5.4%, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.8% for 2024[26] - The export growth outlook remains resilient despite uncertainties in US-China relations and global economic conditions[26] Risks - Potential risks include weakening external demand, domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[33]