Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the reduction in shareholding by major shareholders has been completed, which is expected to contribute to the creation of a high-end luxury beauty ecosystem [5] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with L Catterton Asia Advisors to assist in global market expansion, acquisitions, and strategic investments [8] - The company's strong sales performance in both online and offline channels supports the positive outlook for its future profitability [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2,885.96 million RMB - 2024: 3,884.69 million RMB (growth of 34.61%) - 2025: 5,153.06 million RMB (growth of 32.65%) - 2026: 6,608.46 million RMB (growth of 28.24%) - 2027: 8,340.36 million RMB (growth of 26.21%) [7] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 661.9 million RMB - 2024: 880.6 million RMB (growth of 33.0%) - 2025: 1,212.7 million RMB (growth of 37.7%) - 2026: 1,580.4 million RMB (growth of 30.3%) - 2027: 2,030.8 million RMB (growth of 28.5%) [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 3.31 RMB - 2024: 2.18 RMB - 2025: 2.47 RMB - 2026: 3.22 RMB - 2027: 4.14 RMB [7] Strategic Developments - The company plans to utilize the proceeds from the share reduction for investments in the beauty-related industry and personal improvements [8] - The collaboration with L Catterton aims to leverage their global investment network to enhance the company's brand presence in high-end retail channels [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's first equity incentive plan has been implemented, indicating confidence in its medium to long-term development [5][7] - The industry is showing signs of recovery after hitting a low point, with the company benefiting from structural advantages in its product offerings [7] - The company is entering the high-end electronic fabric market, which is expected to provide significant growth opportunities due to increasing demand [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 14,876 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 26.33%. Revenue is expected to grow to 15,856 million RMB in 2024, representing a 6.59% increase, and further to 18,489 million RMB in 2025, a 16.61% increase [6] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 3,044 million RMB, with a significant decline of 53.94%. This is expected to recover to 2,445 million RMB in 2024, a decrease of 19.70%, and then grow to 3,321 million RMB in 2025, an increase of 35.84% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.76 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.61 RMB in 2024, and then increasing to 0.83 RMB in 2025 and 0.97 RMB in 2026 [6] Market Performance - The company is the largest producer in the electronic fabric sector, benefiting from strong demand in the copper-clad laminate market, leading to both volume and price increases [7] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit of at least 38.5% from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of 4,851 million RMB, 5,180 million RMB, and 5,603 million RMB for 2026 to 2028 respectively [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant underperformance of long-term bonds in December 2025, attributed to systematic reductions in holdings by brokerages, funds, and pension funds, which collectively sold 250.2 billion long-term bonds from November 20 to December 31, 2025 [1] - The report identifies three main factors suppressing long-term bonds in the second half of 2025: high expectations for the stock market leading to large sell-offs of long-term bonds, the central bank's delay in lowering policy interest rates resulting in limited bond purchases, and expectations of punitive redemption fees causing a decline in the scale of actively managed pure bond funds [1] - The supply of long-term bonds, particularly ultra-long bonds, has increased significantly since 2018, with net issuance of government bonds rising from 4.77 trillion in 2018 to 13.85 trillion in 2025, an increase of 2.56 trillion from the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The report suggests that the demand for ultra-long bonds primarily comes from life insurance companies, which have increased their stock investment ratios since 2025, potentially reducing future demand for ultra-long bonds [1] - It is recommended that measures be taken to address the supply-demand imbalance in ultra-long bonds, including controlling the issuance duration of government bonds and encouraging insurance funds to increase their allocation to ultra-long bonds [1] - The report notes that the current yield on 30-year government bonds is over 40 basis points higher than the low point in 2025, raising the cost of issuing long-term bonds and increasing fiscal interest payment pressure [1][2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the conditions for further reductions in policy interest rates may now be in place, as the central bank has maintained a stable policy rate while the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in the second half of 2025 [1][2] - The new regulations on public fund sales, effective December 2025, are expected to stabilize the scale of bond funds by significantly reducing redemption fees and sales service fees, which lowers the cost of investing in bond funds [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in long-term bonds, suggesting that the current high yields present a compelling investment opportunity, particularly for 3-5 year capital bonds to capture coupon income [2]

Group 1: North Exchange Market Insights - In 2025, a total of 26 companies completed their IPOs on the North Exchange, raising 7.5 billion yuan, significantly surpassing 2024's fundraising [2][7] - The average first-day increase for IPOs in 2025 reached 368%, a notable rise from 2024, with December's new listings averaging a 463% increase [2][7] - The average online subscription funds in 2025 reached 662.4 billion yuan, with December hitting a record high of 781.2 billion yuan, indicating heightened interest in new listings [2][8] Group 2: Consumer Services Sector Analysis - The consumer services sector on the North Exchange saw a median market cap increase of 30.92% in 2025, with several companies experiencing over 50% and 100% increases [11] - The sector includes various industries such as food and beverage, cultural IP, pet food, cosmetics, and agriculture, indicating a diverse investment landscape [11] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) for consumer services companies was 46.3x, suggesting relatively low valuations and potential investment opportunities in 2026 [11] Group 3: Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 0.7% in the week ending January 6, 2026, with significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [15][17] - New housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 256 million square meters, reflecting a 2.0% decrease week-on-week, while year-to-date transactions showed an 18.1% decline [16][17] - The government emphasized the importance of the real estate market for economic stability, with new policies aimed at improving market expectations and housing quality [17][18] Group 4: Shenzhen International Company Insights - Shenzhen International's logistics park transformation project is progressing, with expected incremental revenue from land use rights and a stable dividend policy [19][20] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 50% from 2017 to 2024, with projected dividend yields of approximately 8.7% for 2025-2027 [21][22] - The anticipated net profits for Shenzhen International from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 3.64 billion, 3.65 billion, and 2.8 billion HKD, respectively, indicating a strong financial outlook [22]

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2026年1月6日 2025年新股首日涨幅均值368%，千万级账户2025年收益率预计3.4% —北交所新股月度巡礼（2025年12月） 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：胡文瀚 邮箱：huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 核心要点：2025年新股首日收益率368%，预期顶格收益达48万元 n 发行情况：2025年共计26家公司完成上市，募资75亿元，全年募资显著超越2024年；12月有3家公司上市，募资额7.8 亿元，2025Q4则整体上市11家（募资24亿元），北交所IPO节奏维持加速态势，预计后续IPO或延续该节奏。 n 公司质量：2025年北交所新上市公司的2024年营收平均为7.8亿元，归母净利润平均为1.0亿元，毛利率达34%，财务数 据相比2023-2024年新上市公司显著提升。 n 首日涨幅：2025年北交所IPO首日平均涨幅达到368%，较2024年显著提升。12月3家新上市公司，首日平均涨幅达463%； ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer service industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange, highlighting investment opportunities driven by policy support and emerging consumption trends [1][22]. Core Insights - The consumer market in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching a year-high growth of 0.7% in November 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown marginal improvement [2][5]. - The report identifies several consumption hotspots, including policy-driven consumption, emotional economy, health consumption, silver economy, national trend economy, and experience economy [2][12]. - The median market capitalization growth for 41 consumer service companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange was +30.92% in 2025, with 36 companies (88%) experiencing an increase [13][15]. - The median Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for consumer service companies was reported at 46.3x, indicating relatively low valuations and potential investment opportunities in 2026 [19][22]. Summary by Sections Domestic Consumption Market Trends - In 2025, the CPI showed a gradual recovery, with November's growth at 0.7%, marking the highest point of the year [5]. - The retail sales growth varied across categories, with strong performance in communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture, while traditional consumer goods like tobacco, clothing, and beverages lagged [6][8]. Market Performance - The median market capitalization change for consumer service stocks was -2.39% in the last week of December 2025, with notable performers including Thunder God Technology (+10.10%) and Vision Intelligence (+3.14%) [12][15]. - The overall market capitalization for consumer service companies decreased from 115.18 billion to 109.71 billion yuan, with a median market cap drop from 1.906 billion to 1.873 billion yuan [12][15]. Valuation Metrics - The median PE ratio for the broader consumer industry was reported at 49.3x, reflecting a slight decrease from previous periods [19][22]. - Specific sectors such as food and beverage, and agriculture showed median PE ratios of 49.5x, indicating stable valuations despite market fluctuations [19][22]. Company Highlights - Key companies in the consumer service sector include Gai Shi Food, Oufu Egg Industry, and Biowave, with significant market capitalization growth and diverse product offerings [22][26]. - The report emphasizes the potential of companies in the pet food, cosmetics, and agricultural sectors, with a robust pipeline of companies poised for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [22][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The transformation and upgrade projects are continuously being realized, highlighting the value of high dividends [5] - The company has a stable dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from around 40% (2013-2016) to approximately 50% (2017-2024), with total dividends of 11.8 billion HKD during 2018-2024 [7] - The company is expected to see profit growth from its logistics park transformation projects, with projected net profits of 36.4 billion, 36.5 billion, and 28.0 billion HKD for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 5.8, 5.8, and 7.5 respectively [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 20,523.8 million HKD in 2023, decreasing to 15,570.6 million HKD in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 17,250.2 million HKD by 2027, with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2026 to 2027 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,901.6 million HKD in 2023, increasing to 3,637.9 million HKD in 2025, before declining to 2,795.9 million HKD in 2027 [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.80 HKD in 2023, reaching 1.49 HKD in 2025, and then slightly decreasing to 1.14 HKD in 2027 [6] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 8.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of 21,016.13 million HKD [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 58.62% [3]

Fixed Income - Long-term yields are rising, with credit spreads mostly narrowing slightly, indicating a mixed market response to different credit ratings and sectors [1][5][6] - For 2026, a differentiated allocation strategy is recommended for various credit types, suggesting short-duration municipal bonds as a base and focusing on high-quality entities for longer durations to enhance returns [7] - Predictions for December 2025 indicate new loans of 700 billion yuan and social financing growth of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a weak credit demand expected to continue into 2026 [10][12] North Exchange - The electric vehicle wave is driving upgrades in the automotive supply chain, with a projected 70% growth in total market capitalization for automotive stocks on the North Exchange in 2025 [15][16] - Key trends to watch in 2026 include the localization of core robot components, breakthroughs in battery technology, and advancements in smart driving systems [16][18] - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio increased from 30.6X to 31.9X, reflecting a growing market interest [18] New Consumption - The New Year's Day holiday saw significant consumer activity, with a total of 5.9 billion people expected to travel, marking a 19.5% increase year-on-year [21][22] - Douyin's beauty segment is projected to exceed 230 billion yuan in gross merchandise value for 2025, indicating strong growth in the beauty market [24][25] - Emerging consumer trends highlight a shift towards high-quality domestic brands in beauty and jewelry, with specific recommendations for brands that resonate with younger consumers [25] Transportation - The aviation sector experienced a notable increase in passenger volume during the New Year holiday, with a 13% year-on-year growth in civil aviation passenger numbers [27][29] - Geopolitical events, such as U.S. actions in Venezuela, may positively impact oil transportation markets, with potential increases in shipping demand [31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards quality development, with regulatory changes aimed at reducing competition pressures and improving profitability [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The probability of going long in the bond market is high, and the bond market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations. The bond market trend has often deviated from the fundamentals since the second half of 2025, being mainly influenced by institutional behavior. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in Q1. The new rules for public fund sales fees have been implemented, and bond fund institutional investors are exempt from punitive redemption fees for one - month holding, while retail investors are exempt for 7 - day holding. This has little impact on bond funds, and the scale of bond funds is expected to stabilize or even increase slightly. Currently, the trading positions in ultra - long bonds have significantly decreased, so the bond market may rebound in January [2][4][94][96] - The new regulations on public fund sales fees implemented on January 1, 2026, have relaxed the redemption system for bond funds compared to the draft for comments. As of H1 2025, institutional investors accounted for 82.76% of bond - type funds. The official regulations may ease the redemption pressure and liquidity concerns of institutions such as bank self - operations and wealth management. The ability of individual investors to negotiate redemption fees after 7 - day holding may increase the attractiveness of short - term bond funds. In the future, bank wealth management may be more inclined to allocate bond ETFs, inter - bank certificate of deposit funds, and money market funds [2][14][94] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro News - During the 3 - day New Year's Day holiday in 2026, there were 142 million domestic tourist trips, with a total domestic tourism consumption of 84.789 billion yuan. Compared with the New Year's Day holiday in 2024, the number of tourist trips, total spending, and per - capita spending increased by 5.19%, 6.35%, and 1.10% respectively [2][14][94] - The "Regulations on the Administration of Sales Fees for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" came into effect on January 1, 2026. Compared with the draft for comments, it has relaxed the redemption system for bond funds. As of H1 2025, institutional investors accounted for 82.76% of bond - type funds, and the new regulations may ease institutional redemption pressure and increase the attractiveness of short - term bond funds [2][14][94] - The manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond the seasonal level, returning above the boom - bust line for the first time since April 2025, and the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range after a one - month hiatus. In December, the manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1%, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating an overall expansion of business production and operation activities [22] - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", emphasizing "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure" in fiscal policy and "promoting economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices" in monetary policy. The report also pointed out that medium - and long - term funds such as public funds, insurance funds, and various pension funds are the cornerstones of the healthy and stable development of the capital market, and future institutional policies may be improved to increase their investment in A - shares [28] 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of December 28, the daily average retail sales volume of passenger car manufacturers was 90,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 119,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% [29] - As of January 2, the total box - office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 1.162742 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2% [29] - As of December 19, the total retail sales volume of three major household appliances was 776,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.7%, and the total retail sales amount was 1.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 49.7% [32] 3.2.2 Transportation - As of January 3, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 564.8, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% [33] - As of December 28, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed in the week was 1.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [33] - As of January 2, the average daily passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 3.8972 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [33] - As of December 28, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.05 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, the delivery volume was 4.07 billion pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%, the railway freight volume was 7.3561 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.5164 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [41] 3.2.3 Industry - As of January 2, the weekly iron ore inventory was 16.7218 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, the rebar inventory was 282,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the float glass enterprise inventory was 5.6866 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.7% [44] - As of January 2, the weekly apparent consumption of steel was 841,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, the apparent consumption of rebar was 200,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, and the apparent consumption of wire rods was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [49] - As of December 31, the national blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 74.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4 percentage points. As of December 25, the average operating rate of asphalt was 21.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0 percentage points, the soda ash operating rate was 81.5%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points, and the PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 percentage points [53] 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of January 3, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 3.032 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.8% [57] - As of December 26, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities was 153,600 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9% [60] - As of December 28, the transaction land area of 100 large and medium - sized cities was 24.951 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 42.4%, and the total transaction land price was 64.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 53.3% [62] 3.2.5 Price - As of January 4, the average wholesale price of vegetables in the week was 5.7 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a 3.2% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% and an 8.0% increase compared to 4 weeks ago [67] - As of December 31, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports in the week was 691.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a 15.5% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [67] - As of January 2, the average spot price of WTI crude oil in the week was 57.7 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2% and a 2.2% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [67] - As of December 31, the average spot price of rebar in the week was 3230.1 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% and a 0.7% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 815.1 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% and a 0.5% increase compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 12.8 yuan/square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 21.5% and a 6.5% decrease compared to 4 weeks ago [73] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On January 4, the overnight Shibor was 1.26%, unchanged from December 26. On December 31, R001 was 1.46%, up 10.09BP from December 25; R007 was 2.16%, up 63.14BP from December 25. DR001 was 1.33%, up 7.36BP from December 25; DR007 was 1.98%, up 49.79BP from December 25. IBO001 was 1.39%, up 7.38BP from December 25; IBO007 was 1.93%, up 50.92BP from December 25 [80] - On December 31, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bonds were 1.34%/1.63%/1.85%/2.27% respectively, unchanged, up 3.2BP, up 1.1BP, and up 4.5BP respectively compared to December 24. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.55%/1.81%/2.00%/2.42% respectively, down 1.3BP, up 1.4BP, up 2.7BP, and up 3.1BP respectively compared to December 24 [84] - On December 31, the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.49%/1.76%/2.06% respectively, down 0.8BP, down 0.1BP, and up 1.6BP respectively compared to December 24. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year, AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.53%/1.63%/1.55%/1.66% respectively, down 10.4BP, down 1.3BP, down 10.4BP, and down 1.3BP respectively compared to December 24 [86] - As of January 2, 2026, the yields of 10 - year treasury bonds in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.19%, 2.07%, 4.54%, and 2.96% respectively, up 7BP, 1BP, 5BP, and 2BP respectively compared to December 29 [91] - On December 31, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.03/6.99 respectively, down 183/271 pips compared to December 24 [92] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The bond market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in Q1. The new rules for public fund sales fees have little impact on bond funds, and the scale of bond funds is expected to stabilize or increase slightly. Currently, the trading positions in ultra - long bonds have significantly decreased, so the bond market may rebound in January [4][96]