Market Review - Global stock indices showed divergence this week, with European, Brazilian, and Indian indices rising, while Chinese and American tech stocks declined. The Shanghai Composite Index continued its narrow fluctuation, with major broad indices generally adjusting. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a focus on existing stock games. Growth leaders fell while small-cap stocks rose, with the micro-cap index increasing by 4.11% [1][2] - In terms of sector performance, the TMT, machinery, and military sectors saw the largest declines, while precious metals and copper prices rose, and domestic double焦 prices weakened [1][2] Market Outlook - The core theme for November remains "small-cap stocks + thematic investment." The recent pullback in Chinese and American tech stocks is attributed to tight overseas liquidity and concerns over AI bubbles. Future attention will be on U.S. economic data and changes in December rate cut expectations. The current A-share market is primarily focused on existing stock games, with financing and southbound trading showing a "high-low cut" trend. The performance benchmark for public funds is expected to curb issues like style drift and short-term ranking chasing, potentially weakening extreme institutional clustering [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - The domestic economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5% for the year, despite a weakening trend in both supply and demand in October. Industrial added value growth was 6.1%, continuing to decline. Investment in narrow infrastructure turned negative, and real estate development investment and sales areas also saw significant declines. Retail sales growth was only 2.9%, marking five consecutive months of decline, particularly in major consumer goods. However, corporate earnings are stabilizing, and with PPI growth expected to turn positive next year, the potential for profit improvement in certain sectors is anticipated [3][4] Macro Policy - Future policy observations will focus on the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank has reiterated "cross-cycle adjustment," signaling a balance between long-term goals and supportive monetary policy. The third-quarter monetary policy report indicates that the national economy is progressing steadily, with a solid foundation for achieving annual targets. The central bank's focus is shifting towards supporting policies that consider long-term objectives [4] Funding Dynamics - Since November, market style has shifted, with tech leaders retreating and small-cap stocks outperforming. This is due to concerns over the AI bubble affecting tech sentiment in A-shares. Financing transactions in sectors like semiconductors and communication equipment have seen net selling since November. Southbound funds have favored banks and oil sectors, leading to a phase where value stocks outperform tech stocks. Recent guidelines from the fund industry association aim to curb style drift and extreme clustering among funds, prompting some capital to migrate towards underweight sectors [5][6] Industry Configuration - Focus on "14th Five-Year Plan" related thematic investments, such as energy storage, batteries, domestic substitution, and new materials. Attention should also be given to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" trends, such as chemicals, and the guidance signals from Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals to A-shares [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The Alibaba Tongyi App has been officially renamed "Qianwen," fully competing with ChatGPT. This move marks a significant strategic layout following Alibaba's announcement of a 380 billion yuan investment in AI infrastructure. The launch of a consumer-facing product indicates a new phase in the commercialization of its technology, showcasing the determination of domestic tech giants to break through in AI applications [2][20] - In October, "Honor of Kings" topped the global mobile game revenue growth chart, driven by its tenth-anniversary celebration, which boosted in-game purchases by 11% month-on-month. This highlights Tencent's strong capabilities in long-term IP operation and user engagement. The report suggests that leading games will continue to support stable growth for major gaming companies through ongoing content updates and refined operations [3][21] - Current investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, emphasizing social value; 2) The gaming industry, benefiting from policy incentives to boost domestic demand; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, with consumption policies promoting cinema recovery and stimulating demand [21] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" with 258.916 million yuan (60.6% market share), "Now You See Me 3" with 73.173 million yuan (17.1%), and "Predator: The Kill Zone" with 29.01 million yuan (6.8%) [22][23] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Delta Force," "Honor of Kings," and "Valorant: Energy Action." The top three Android games are "Heart Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "Staff Sword Legend" [24] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "Tang Dynasty Strange Stories: Chang'an," "Water Dragon Chant," and "Four Happiness," with indices of 84.8, 82.9, and 81.7 respectively [25][26] Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3," followed by "Flowers and Youth: Together" and "Wonderful Night Season 2." The top animation is "Little Magic Food Encyclopedia" with a viewership index of 193.2 [27][30]

Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced volatility this week due to potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a pullback in AI stocks across most markets [1][2] - The VIX index in the US stock market rose sharply, exceeding 23, indicating increased market uncertainty [2][11] - The current P/E ratios for major indices are high, with the TAMAMA Technology Index at 37.1, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 47.6, and the Nasdaq Index at 41, suggesting that tech stocks in the US are under valuation pressure [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw slight increases of 0.08% and 0.34% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.45% [2][11] - The healthcare sector within the S&P 500 had the highest increase of 3.87%, while the consumer discretionary sector saw the largest decline of 2.74% [11][15] - Concerns about an AI bubble and potential credit issues are prevalent among Wall Street institutions, leading to expectations of further adjustments in the tech sector [1][11] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 1.26%, 1.41%, and 3.01% [2][23] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 0.42% [23] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed significant growth, with a 7.18% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector faced a minor decline of 0.82% [27] Economic Data Insights - The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell to -7.4, down from -5.4, indicating a decline in investor sentiment [3][39] - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 25, up from 22.7, suggesting improved economic outlook among investors [39] - Japan's PPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.66%, down from 2.75%, reflecting potential inflationary pressures [37][39]

Group 1: Market Overview - The funding market experienced significant upward pressure on interest rates, with R001 and R007 averaging 1.47% and 1.50% respectively, increasing by 10 and 4 basis points week-on-week[1] - The average daily lending volume in the banking system dropped to below 4 trillion yuan, at 3.84 trillion yuan, down from 4.69 trillion yuan the previous week[1] - The pressure on local government bond payments increased, with weekly payment amounts exceeding 500 billion yuan[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The tax period from November 17-19 is expected to have limited impact, with an average tax collection of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan over the past three years[2] - Government bond net payments for the upcoming week are projected at 3629 billion yuan, still above the average level for the year[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to conduct a net injection of 500 billion yuan during the tax period, mitigating overall payment pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - The PBOC will face a total of 12,420 billion yuan in maturities from November 17-21, with reverse repos accounting for 11,220 billion yuan[3] - The PBOC has announced an excess rollover of 8000 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos on the first day of the tax period[3] Group 4: Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.63%, an increase of 0.4 basis points from the previous week[6] - The upcoming week will see 9209 billion yuan in certificates of deposit maturing, up from 7265 billion yuan the previous week[6] Group 5: Government Bonds - Net payments for government bonds from November 17-21 are expected to be 3629 billion yuan, down from 5075 billion yuan the previous week[5] - The issuance scale for government bonds is projected to be lower, with planned issuance of 3717 billion yuan compared to 5944 billion yuan the previous week[5]

受去年"924"新政后销售放量形成的高基数影响，二手房和新房销售同比增速均承压。本周 15 城二手 房成交面积同比下降 21%，已连续第五周走弱（此前曾连续七周同比改善）；38 城新房成交面积同比跌幅为 34%，已连续第七周录得负增长。然而，若与 2023 年同期比较以剔除高基数扰动，本周成交表现有所改善。 15 城二手房成交面积较 23 年同期增长 14%，增速较上周（+4%）明显回升；38 城新房成交面积较 23 年同期 下跌 21%，降幅亦较上周（下跌 36%）显著收窄。 2）月度： 证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 一线城市二手房价领跌 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度： 二手房成交连续两周下滑后微增。本周（11 月 7-13 日），15 城二手房成交面积为 219 万平方米，环比增 长 3%，但仍处于过去四周（213–233 万平）区间的低位，约相当于年内高点的 74%。 新房亦自近期低点小幅回升。38城新房成交面积为 220 万平方米，环比小幅增长 2%，同样位于过去四周 ...

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.45, with a historical average of 26.03, indicating a significant undervaluation[7] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.37, while the CSI 300 is at 13.45, both below historical averages[9] - The contribution of earnings and valuation changes to index performance shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has a current value change rate of 16.64%[13] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.05, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[64] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 22.47, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other sectors[64] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 28.67, with a historical maximum of 41.99 and a minimum of 11.21, suggesting a premium valuation[86] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE of 41.09, reflecting a high growth expectation in the tech sector[86] Sector-Specific Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computing and automotive are at high PE levels[24] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has a median PE of 52.91, indicating strong growth expectations[75] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[107]

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, the lowest since September of the previous year, down from 6.5% in the previous month[1] - Retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year in October, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking a new low for the year[2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure investment fell to -0.1%, marking the first negative growth since September 2020, while manufacturing investment slowed to 2.7%[3] - Real estate sales in October saw a year-on-year decline of 24.3% in sales value and 18.8% in sales area, with declines widening by 12.5 and 8.2 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[4] - The industrial and service sector production index showed a weighted year-on-year growth of 4.7%, while demand-side indicators only grew by -3.5%, marking the largest gap since March 2020[5] Future Outlook - For November and December, industrial added value and service production indices need to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year to offset the slowdown observed in October, aiming to achieve the annual growth target of 5%[6] - The impact of the holiday misalignment on industrial production is expected to diminish in November, although the additional boost to retail will also fade[6] - The upcoming PMI data in November will be crucial for assessing whether counter-cyclical policies need to be intensified, with potential for monetary easing measures[7]

Credit Demand Trends - In October, new social financing (社融) increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5,970 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 1,528.4 billion yuan[1] - New loan issuance (金融机构口径) was 220 billion yuan, down 2,800 billion yuan year-on-year, also below the expected 460 billion yuan[1] - Both new social financing and loan data have shown negative year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, with significant deviations from expectations in October[1] Government Debt and Financing - The new government bond issuance in October was only 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, nearly matching the overall decline in new social financing[2] - The slowdown in government bond issuance is attributed to local government arrangements rather than quota issues, with potential for increased issuance in November[2] Loan and Financing Structure - New loans under the social financing category were negative at -20.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 3,166 billion yuan[3] - New entrusted loans and corporate bond financing were relatively strong, at 165.3 billion yuan and 246.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 187.2 billion yuan and 148.2 billion yuan[3] Consumer Loan Trends - New household loans were significantly below seasonal levels at -360.4 billion yuan, compared to a ten-year average of 290.8 billion yuan for the same period[4] - Short-term consumer loans saw a decrease of 2,866 billion yuan, indicating a decline in consumer spending willingness[5] Corporate Financing Dynamics - New corporate short-term loans were -190 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans were 30 billion yuan, both at seasonal lows[6] - Overall corporate financing demand was 558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 445.2 billion yuan, driven by various financing tools[6] Deposit Trends - New deposit growth was 610 billion yuan, with significant declines in both household and corporate deposits, at -1,340 billion yuan and -1,085.3 billion yuan respectively[7] - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a trend of "disintermediation" as funds flow back to banks through non-bank channels[7] Monetary Supply Changes - M1 growth rate fell from 7.2% to 6.2%, while M2 slightly decreased from 8.4% to 8.2%, indicating a widening gap in monetary supply metrics[8] - The decline in M1 is attributed to a significant drop in both household and corporate deposits, suggesting a potential liquidity issue[8] Market Outlook - The persistent weakness in credit demand may lead to a shift in monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated by year-end or early next year[9] - The bond market signals are becoming clearer, suggesting a more favorable environment for bond investments as monetary conditions may ease[9]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Wind All A Index rising by 1.33% and a trading volume of 2.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 100.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The report highlights that the market is approaching a critical resistance level at 6385 points, where the accumulation of positions may lead to further upward momentum if the market breaks through this level [1] - The report notes that the pressure from loss-making positions near the previous high could pose a challenge to the current rally, indicating that a strong breakout would suggest a dominant bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the increasing focus on the energy storage sector, linking it to the demand for AI computing power, with a notable rise in the market's interest in energy storage business models and expanding demand in Europe and the US [2] - It mentions that the energy storage sector's congestion level has reached 6.45%, close to the high levels seen in 2022, indicating a heightened requirement for upward momentum in the market [2] - The report warns that while high congestion does not immediately signal a market correction, it suggests that the market's expectations for upward trends are increasing, and any deviation from these expectations could lead to significant adjustments [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in the Hang Seng Technology Index, driven by news related to Alibaba's "Thousand Questions" project, although it faced a notable pullback towards the end of the trading day [3] - It highlights that the southbound capital flow experienced a net outflow of 3.521 billion Hong Kong dollars, ending a streak of 16 consecutive days of net inflows, reflecting a tendency for profit-taking among investors [3] - The report suggests that the bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of risk assets, with long-term bond yields slightly rising as a result of the equity market's influence [4] Group 4 - The report notes that the commodity market sentiment has significantly improved, with precious metals and "anti-involution" themes showing strong performance, as gold and silver prices rose by 1.56% and 5.48%, respectively [6] - It mentions that there has been a substantial inflow of funds into the commodity market, with a net inflow of 4.8 billion yuan on the day, indicating a growing interest in precious and non-ferrous metals [6] - The report attributes the continued rise in precious metals to expectations of liquidity easing following personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which has led to a decline in the US dollar index [6] Group 5 - The report highlights the "anti-involution" theme gaining traction, particularly in the polysilicon sector, where market sentiment has improved following the denial of rumors regarding a storage platform by JA Solar [7] - It notes that lithium carbonate prices have reached a yearly high due to strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and energy storage, while supply-side uncertainties persist [7] - The report indicates that the black metal sector remains under pressure, with both production and demand showing signs of weakness, leading to a transition from peak season to off-peak characteristics [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has shown an accelerating revenue trend, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 226 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same quarter was 49 million yuan, up 81.46% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international strategy, expand overseas business, and improve overall competitiveness [3]. - The company is a leading supplier of recombinant proteins for industrial clients and is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic and international customer expansion, leading to continued upward performance in the future [3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the revenue forecast has been adjusted from 841 million yuan to 854 million yuan, with net profit per share (EPS) revised from 1.09 yuan to 1.16 yuan. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 are projected at 54 times [3]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth of 32.4% in 2025, with a net profit growth of 57.5% [8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 91% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit margins improving from 19.2% in 2024 to 24.1% in 2027 [10].