1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite slightly increased this week, with most stock markets rising, most bond yields falling, and the US dollar index rebounding. The non - US currencies showed a mixed performance. The geopolitical risks eased to some extent, but the tariff issue still affected market sentiment and economic data [1][2]. - The April non - farm payrolls data was better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The wage growth slowed down, reducing the upward pressure on core inflation. The employment market has not deteriorated, supporting the Fed to stay on hold in the upcoming May interest - rate meeting [2]. - Due to the impact of tariffs, the US economic growth slowed down in the first quarter, with GDP declining quarter - on - quarter. Tariffs increased the stagflation pressure on the economy, and corporate profit expectations were generally lowered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US bond yield dropped to 4.23%. The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.4, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, the gold price fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 24.8, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel [9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. Developed - market stocks generally increased, with the S&P 500 rising 2.92%. Emerging - market stocks also mostly climbed, but the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.49% before the holiday. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.38%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rose 3.15% [10][11] - Tariff negotiations continued to affect market sentiment. The market's expectation of China - US negotiations increased, and Trump admitted that tariffs dragged down the US economy, which marginally eased market concerns about tariffs and boosted risk appetite [11] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Bond yields of most countries globally rebounded. The 10 - year US bond yield rose to 4.31%, most euro - zone countries' yields increased, and most emerging - market bond yields declined [14][15] - The rebound of the US bond yield was due to the short - term easing of geopolitical risks, the better - than - expected April non - farm payrolls report, and the reduced market expectation of Fed rate cuts [17] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly dropped to 1.63%. The central bank injected liquidity, and the market funds were abundant. The weak economic data and the market's expectation of trade negotiations led to a volatile bond market [20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.56% to 100, and non - US currencies showed a mixed performance. Commodity and emerging - market exchange rates strengthened. The offshore RMB rose 1.04%, the euro fell 0.6%, the pound fell 0.32%, the yen fell 0.9%, the Swiss franc rose 0.17%, and the Korean won, Indian rupee, and Malaysian ringgit rose more than 2%. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Thai baht, South African rand, and Brazilian real also ended up [28] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 2.4% to $3240 per ounce. The domestic funds took profits before the holiday, and the market expected a marginal improvement in China - US trade negotiations, so the international gold price still had room for short - term correction [32] - Brent crude oil tumbled 9% to $61.4 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's decision to increase production and the lackluster demand put pressure on oil prices, and the overall commodities market was weak [32] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - The April non - farm payrolls data was better than expected, with new employment exceeding 170,000. The wage growth was slightly lower than expected at 3.8% year - on - year. The Fed was expected to remain cautious and the possibility of a short - term rate cut decreased significantly [34] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement indicated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict would continue in the short term. Saudi Arabia's oil production increase had political motives, and the Fed was not expected to cut rates in the short term [34] - The Japan - US trade negotiations were unproductive. Although Japan threatened to use US Treasury bonds as a weapon, it was still expected to meet US demands [35] 3.4 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: US April ISM non - manufacturing PMI; China, Japan, South Korea, and the UK are on holiday [36] - Tuesday: China April Caixin services PMI; Japan and South Korea are on holiday [36] - Wednesday: China April foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves; Euro - zone April retail sales [36] - Thursday: Fed and Bank of England interest - rate meeting decisions; US weekly initial jobless claims and April New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Friday: China April import and export data [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of weakening external demand is emerging, and the bond market is expected to strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The negative impact of trade frictions is starting to show, with the official manufacturing PMI in April falling short of expectations. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is certain. Although high - frequency indicators related to domestic demand perform well, their impact on the bond market is limited. The marginal easing of trade conflicts mainly affects market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it presents a buying opportunity [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From April 21 - 27, treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. On Monday, with a relatively balanced capital market and a slight upward revision of broad - money expectations, treasury bond futures rose. On Tuesday, with a calm news environment and balanced capital, the market expected the April PMI to weaken, leading to a significant rise in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, although the April manufacturing PMI was below expectations, treasury bond futures slightly corrected as the market had already priced in the news. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but the bullish force is expected to prevail, and treasury bond futures may attempt to break upwards. Negative factors mainly affect market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it is a good opportunity for bulls to increase positions. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is clear. If some indicators exceed market expectations, the bond market may fall temporarily, presenting a buying opportunity [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 32 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1350.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 1346.97 billion yuan, a change of - 5406.91 billion yuan and + 2149.45 billion yuan from last week respectively. 29 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 930.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 926.97 billion yuan, a change of - 980.31 billion yuan and - 698.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 168 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 2493.40 billion yuan and a net financing of - 859.70 billion yuan, a change of - 7184.40 billion yuan and - 2631.10 billion yuan from last week respectively [23] - **Secondary Market**: Most treasury bond yields declined. By April 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.83% respectively, down 3.76, 3.99, 3.25, and 9.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread compressed by 4.17bp to 16.80bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.74bp to 12.19bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread compressed by 6.50bp to 19.96bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.57%, and 1.66% respectively, down 0.44, 3.75, and 3.56bp from the previous weekend [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41761, 59303, 65919, and 83215 lots respectively, with changes of + 1358, + 7676, - 377, and - 20221 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 146910, 205789, 236575, and 133653 lots respectively, with changes of + 3958, + 2418, + 13819, and + 4959 lots from the previous weekend [38][41] - **Basis and IRR**: A positive - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - carry strategy becomes more prominent [45] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: By April 30, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.264, - 0.300, - 0.145, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.010, - 0.010, + 0.020, and 0.000 yuan from the previous weekend. The futures roll - over rhythm is fast, and the open interest of the 06 contract significantly exceeds the seasonal level of previous contracts. The roll - over pressure is high, and the spread of TS2506 - 09 is expected to continue to decline [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank conducted 11503 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 5045 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6458 billion yuan. By April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, up 18.09, 16.28, 19.30, and 12.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose slightly. By May 2, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.0424 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 4 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 254 basis points. There are signs of easing in trade conflicts, and both the US dollar and the RMB exchange rates strengthened slightly. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data in April led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts, causing the US treasury bond yields to rise slightly [61][62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board. By April 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3478.21, 6106.89, and 1621.01 points respectively, down 61.07, 41.83, and 35.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also fell. By April 30, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.59, 4.39, and 7.59 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.19, 0.19, and 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach towards the bond market, focus on the strategy of buying on dips. Consider the positive - carry opportunities of short - term varieties. Wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of TS06 - 09 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The US GDP growth rate turned negative in Q1 2025, with the annualized quarterly-on-quarter initial value at -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Tariffs increased economic volatility, and the surge in imports due to enterprises stockpiling ahead of time dragged down the economic growth rate. As tariffs are implemented, enterprises' investment willingness weakens, and they need to digest inventory. Meanwhile, the consumption momentum of the household sector has significantly weakened, putting further downward pressure on the economy. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has slightly increased, with the probability of a rate cut in June expected to rise to 64.2% [3][4] - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations and is insensitive to fundamental data. In the long term, the de - globalization under tariffs is hard to reverse, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate. Without further progress in tax cuts and interest rate cuts, the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Q1 GDP Growth Rate Turns Negative, Tariffs Increase Economic Volatility - **GDP Data**: The annualized quarterly - on - quarter initial value of US Q1 GDP was -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Net exports dragged down the economic growth rate by 4.83%, with the import sub - item contributing -5.03%. Personal consumption expenditure grew at 1.8%, government expenditure at -1.4%, private investment at 21.9%, and imports at 41.3%. The core PCE price index rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%, higher than expected [3][8] - **Contribution to GDP Growth**: Consumption, fixed investment, inventory, net exports, and government expenditure contributed 1.21%, 1.34%, 2.25%, -4.83%, and -0.25% respectively to the -0.3% GDP growth [3][16] - **Consumption**: Service consumption remained resilient, while commodity consumption declined significantly. The growth rate of commodity consumption dropped from 6.2% in Q1 to 0.5%, with durable and non - durable goods growing at -3.4% and 2.7% respectively. Service consumption was only weak in the accommodation and food sub - item [23] - **Investment**: Private investment increased by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized, the highest since 2022. Equipment investment grew by 22.5%, mainly due to enterprises advancing equipment investment to avoid future tariff pressure and government regulations on the technology industry. Inventory also increased significantly due to pre - tariff stockpiling. However, long - term capital expenditure is showing signs of weakness [24] - **Government Expenditure**: The growth rate of government expenditure dropped to -1.4% in Q1, and the government's role in boosting the economy weakened due to debt ceiling, fiscal budget constraints, and the intervention of Trump's new government efficiency department [26] - **Inflation**: Inflation continued to rise in Q1. The GDP deflator rose to 3.7%, the PCE price index rebounded from 2.4% to 3.6%, and the core PCE rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%. The process of inflation decline may be slower under tariff shocks [26] 2. Investment Advice - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations. After the news that the US wants to negotiate tariffs with China, the market's risk appetite has recovered. Gold has a correction space due to crowded long - positions, the US stock market is expected to be weak and oscillating after reaching the resistance level, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields will oscillate. In the long term, the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate, and the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5][30]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 API 原油库存上升，西南市场炼焦煤暂 稳运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-30 晨 美国 3 月商品贸易逆差 1620 亿美元 报 关税压力再度缓和，提振市场情绪，三大股指低开高走录得上 涨。 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 西南市场炼焦煤暂稳运行 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普颁令防止汽车关税重复叠加 美国财长最新表态自特朗普宣布前任何贸易协议不算做完成。 因此贸易协议的达成进一步困难，美元指数转向震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普：将在未来几周和几个月内通过减税法案 综 金价震荡收跌，围绕 3300 美金关口运行，亚洲时段表现继续偏 弱，国内五一假期前多头继续减仓获利了结。美国经济数据显 示在关税落地前抢进口推动美国 3 月贸易逆差大增。 合 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 巴西 Unica 即将公布 4 月上半月的压榨生产数据，目前市场预期 4 月上半月巴西中南部产糖 69.4 万吨，同比下降 3.8%；糖厂用 蔗制糖比 44.48%，高于 44.08% 短期补库和情绪支撑震荡运行或持稳运行，中长期维持偏空看 待。 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].

调研报告-PTA 华东聚酯产业链下游 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | PTA: | | 震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 4 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★终端五月压力仍存，开工率可能继续向下调整 目前前往美国的的织造订单基本全停，已生产但未发出的货物都 积压在生产企业和贸易商的仓库里。面对关税的冲击，有渠道的 企业尝试拓展其他国家的市场或者转为内销。部分企业找海外代 加工渠道，但能转移的订单量有限。产成品积累的情况下，加弹 厂和织造厂五一期间基本都有 3-7 天放假计划。五月内销也是步入 淡季，内外销综合压力下，五月织造产业可能面临进一步挑战。 能 ★下游阶段性采购下，化纤厂库存高位有所去化 源 化 工 织造企业普遍认为当下原料价格已经是低位，四月底可以看到化 纤厂产销阶段性有明显放量，库存高位去化，聚酯降负预期有所 改善。但本轮补货更多是绝对价格偏低刺激下游刚需补货，如果 终端织造五月负荷继续下调，两环节的矛盾可能会进一步积累。 ★关税博弈可能 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 抢装潮透支需求，光伏玻璃价格承压运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 4 月 28 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/25 当周）： 化 工 上周国内光伏玻璃行业走货仍偏慢，临近月末订单交付基本接近 尾声，终端抢装潮退坡趋势明显。虽然五一小长假临近，但下游 备货意愿不高，仍以刚需拿货为主。预计随着抢装窗口关闭，组 件市场将进入加速调整期，5 月排产或面临下调压力。 上周行业库存继续增加，主要是下游需求退坡趋势明显，且组件 厂家仍有一定量光伏玻璃库存，导致拿货积极性不高。 ★ 供需分析： 近期光伏玻璃产能大量投放带来的供给过剩压力将持续压制价 格，短期内产业链仍面临抢装潮透支需求带来的后续压力。预计 本周行业将再度开启议价阶段，价格趋势大致持稳。 ★ 风险提示： 组件厂家上调开工率。 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3013434 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0013049 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888-3521 | | Email: | lu.cao@orientfutures ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rapeseed oil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market is sufficient, but the supply in the far - month is pessimistic due to factors such as low arrivals of Canadian rapeseed, low old - crop stocks of Russian rapeseed, difficulty in large - scale procurement of Australian rapeseed in the short term, inability to import Canadian rapeseed oil, and reserve rotation in the second half of the year. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is extremely scarce at present but is expected to improve significantly after May [3]. - The total demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Household consumption is relatively rigid, but catering consumption is poor. Rapeseed oil has a substitution phenomenon in blended oil due to its poor cost - performance. Future demand for rapeseed oil is difficult to increase significantly, with limited increments concentrated in seasonings and hot - pot bases [3]. - The market is generally optimistic about the basis of 09 rapeseed oil. The main logic is that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts far - month rapeseed procurement, and the amount of rapeseed oil that can be supplied to China before the harvest of Russian new crops is limited. The unilateral trend of the futures price depends on market sentiment and policies, and rapeseed oil is preferably used as a long position in oil arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - After China launched an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in September 2024 and imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in March 2025, the market's attention to rapeseed oil has increased. The uncertain result of the anti - dumping investigation restricts enterprises' willingness to purchase far - month rapeseed, and future rapeseed arrivals will decline significantly. To understand the downstream consumption, the views and procurement of oil mills and traders on far - month rapeseed oil, and the international supply of rapeseed oil, the research team visited the Sichuan - Chongqing region [11]. 3.2 Research Summary - **Supply**: The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is sufficient, but the far - month arrivals of Canadian rapeseed will decrease. Russian rapeseed stocks are low, and the monthly import volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China may drop to 50,000 - 60,000 tons in the next few months. Dubai's supply is stable with little increment, and Australian rapeseed is difficult to make up for the gap. In addition, the Sichuan - Chongqing region needs to rotate in rapeseed oil reserves in the second half of the year [16]. - **Demand**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Catering demand is poor due to the high cost - performance of soybean oil, while household demand is rigid. The demand is mainly stock - based, with limited increments in seasonings and hot - pot bases. The market expects rapeseed oil to start destocking in June. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce but is expected to improve after May [17]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market is optimistic about the basis of domestic 09 rapeseed oil due to supply concerns. The price trend of rapeseed oil depends on the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The market's acceptance of rapeseed oil prices is increasing, and demand is not completely suppressed by price. After September, the supply may improve, but import policies are still crucial. The price of soybean oil is expected to decline slightly after May. Strategies such as widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and soybean oil and palm oil can be considered [19]. 3.4 Research Content - **April 22, morning, Trader A in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 230,000 tons, and destocking is expected to start in June - July. The company mainly purchases from the East, South, and Hainan regions. It currently buys Dubai rapeseed oil at 6,000 tons per month. The far - month rapeseed purchase is restricted, and the company is optimistic about the price of rapeseed oil [20][21][23]. - **April 22, morning, Trader B in Chengdu**: The company's annual trade volume of oil and meal is about 300,000 tons. It is optimistic about the improvement of the soybean meal market after May Day. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 265,000 tons, and the company mainly purchases from Guangxi [26][27][30]. - **April 22, afternoon, Trader C in Chengdu**: The company's annual feed output is nearly 800,000 tons. The supply of rapeseed meal is poor, and the company has adjusted the formula. The company believes that rapeseed meal may have a correction opportunity. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is under pressure in March - May, and destocking is expected to start in June. The import of Russian rapeseed oil may be 40,000 - 60,000 tons per month from April to August [32][33][38]. - **April 23, morning, Trader D in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 700,000 tons per year and is decreasing. The company is optimistic about the 9 - month basis of rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region and believes that the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will face pressure after rising to 1,700 - 2,200 yuan [37][40][43]. - **April 23, afternoon, Oil Mill E in Chengdu**: The company mainly processes domestic rapeseed and corn germ. The output of domestic rapeseed has increased this year, but the quality is average. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 100,000 tons, and the demand is generally declining [44][45][46]. - **April 24, morning, Oil Mill F in Deyang**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 500,000 tons. The company believes that the supply of far - month rapeseed oil is scarce and is gradually purchasing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the 09 basis [47][48][50]. - **April 25, morning, Oil Mill G in Chongqing**: The company mainly refines and packages rapeseed oil. The annual trade volume is about 150,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 700,000 - 800,000 tons per year. The company's Chongqing rapeseed oil inventory is about several thousand tons, and destocking may start in June [51][53][54]. - **April 25, afternoon, Oil Mill H in Chongqing**: The company's planned annual trade volume of oil this year is 300,000 tons. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce, and the company is preparing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the future supply of soybean oil and the basis of rapeseed oil if the anti - dumping investigation continues [56][57][59].

日度报告——综合晨报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，豆油厂 开机小幅上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美官员：美乌矿产协议即将完成 最新消息美乌之间的矿产协议即将达成，这可能表明距离俄乌 协议进了一步，但是不确定性继续存在。 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金投机净多仓增加 油厂开机小幅上升 上周国内进口大豆成本增加，盘面榨利转差。供需错配下豆粕 现货市场短期仍较为紧张，但上周五现货已经有所回落，豆粕 5 月期价也大幅下挫，后期供需面将趋于改善。 有色金属（铜） 五矿资源一季度铜总产量同比增长 76% 短期宏观因素对铜价限制减弱，且基本面阶段支撑相对较强， 预计铜价短期或震荡偏强运行，策略角度继续关注逢低做多机 会。 能源化工（原油） 尼日利亚一大型汽油制造装置进行维修 综 周五金价震荡收跌一度跌破 3300 美金，表现偏弱，在贸易问题 没有进一步升级以及美国资产企稳回升后，短期资金获利了结。 美联储金融稳定性报告显示关税是当前最大风险。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 政治局会议：适时降准降息 报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，总体来看，政策保持了定 力 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating for lithium carbonate: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated downward, with multiple lithium salt contracts and spot prices showing declines. Although some salt factories plan to reduce production and overseas producers may adjust pricing and shipping, the demand lacks unexpected performance, and the Chinese market for lithium carbonate will still accumulate inventory from April to May. Given the high channel inventory and uncertain supply - side drivers, the price is likely to be weak in the second quarter. A bearish approach is recommended, and short - selling on rebounds has higher certainty [2][3][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Salt - end reduction has limited support, and the market has fallen below the 70,000 - yuan mark again - From April 21 - 25, lithium salt prices declined. For example, the closing price of LC2505 decreased by 2.8% to 68,400 yuan/ton, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices dropped by 2.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide also slightly decreased. The market fell below 70,000 yuan at the beginning of the week and remained at a low level. Despite salt - end production reduction plans and potential overseas adjustments, the demand is flat, and inventory will still accumulate. A bearish strategy is recommended for the second quarter [11][12] 2. Weekly industry news review - CATL launched the sodium - ion battery brand "Naxin", and its first product will be mass - produced in June [15] - In March 2025, China imported 534,500 physical tons of spodumene, a 6% decrease from February. Imports from different countries showed different trends [15] - The Weilasituo Lithium Polymetallic Mine in Chifeng obtained a mining license. It has large reserves and plans a two - phase development with a total investment of 5 billion yuan [15] - Australian lithium miner Liontown Resources' production and shipments increased in Q1 2025, and its operating costs decreased [16] - The Chilean regulator approved the joint - venture plan between Codelco and SQM to develop lithium resources in the Atacama Salt Lake [17] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot price of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 1.9% week - on - week to $793/ton [12] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract has fallen below the 70,000 - yuan mark again - Multiple lithium carbonate futures and spot prices decreased. For example, the closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate futures near - month contract (LC2505) decreased by 2.8% to 68,380 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium showed different degrees of decline or slight increase [12] 3.4 Terminal: In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year - Although the specific data in the text is not detailed, it is emphasized that there was a high year - on - year increase in production and sales [40]