Market Overview - Gold prices rebounded significantly by 6% to $2,716 per ounce, recovering most losses since Trump's election[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly decreased to 4.4%, while inflation expectations rose to 2.35%[1] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.81% to 107.6, and the S&P 500 index rose by 1.68%[1] Geopolitical Factors - Increased geopolitical tensions, particularly following Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons against Russia, have heightened market risk aversion[1] - Trump's hawkish cabinet nominations have raised concerns about potential tariffs on trade partners, especially China, further driving safe-haven demand for gold[1] Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing PMI slightly improved from 48.5 to 48.4, while services PMI rose from 55 to 57, exceeding expectations[2] - In contrast, Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 46 to 45.2, indicating greater economic pressure[2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 213,000, suggesting a stable labor market[2] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that while gold has rebounded, further upward potential may be limited due to geopolitical risks stabilizing and a generally bearish outlook on fundamentals[3] - The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. is expected to lead to reduced trading activity, increasing the risk of short-term corrections in gold prices[3] Risk Factors - Potential easing of geopolitical tensions, a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, and liquidity shocks could trigger a pullback in gold prices[4]

Market Overview - Global stock markets mostly rose this week, with the MSCI Global Index increasing by 1.37%, developed markets up by 1.49%, and emerging markets up by 0.21%[1] - The Chinese stock market underperformed globally, with a decline of 1.83%, marking it as the worst performer[1] A-Share Performance - The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 17,068 billion CNY, a decrease of 4,757 billion CNY from the previous week[1] - Among the sectors in A-shares, only 3 out of 30 sectors rose, with the leading sector being retail (+3.33%) and the worst performers being comprehensive finance (-6.56%) and consumer services (-6.16%)[1] Fund Flows - ETFs tracking the three major indices experienced net outflows, with the ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 index decreasing by 2.26 billion shares and the CSI 500 by 1.29 billion shares[1] - Conversely, the ETF shares tracking the CSI 1000 index increased by 2.87 billion shares, and those tracking the CSI A500 index rose significantly by 54.4 billion shares[1] Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond yield slightly declined, while the 1-year yield also fell, leading to an expansion in the yield spread[1] - The current economic environment is characterized by a policy vacuum domestically, with weakening market expectations and reduced retail investor inflows[2] Risks and Outlook - The market is expected to face continued pressure in the short term due to external geopolitical risks and domestic policy uncertainties[2] - However, there is potential for stabilization in the real estate market as transaction volumes increase, supported by the early issuance of special bonds and storage work[2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong product capabilities and stable supply chains [2]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China surpassed 30% in 2023 and is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, marking the first time that new energy vehicles outnumber traditional fuel vehicles [2]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands likely to continue increasing their market share, benefiting from first-mover advantages [2]. - The report highlights the strategic integration of Geely's brands, Zeekr and Lynk & Co, as a significant move to enhance competitiveness [1]. - Volkswagen's investment of $5.8 billion in Rivian to establish a joint venture is expected to leverage Rivian's electric architecture and software technology, aiming for new model launches by 2026 and 2027 [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets Tracking - Geely's strategic integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co aims to consolidate resources and enhance market positioning [1]. 2. Industry Data Procurement 2.1. Global Vehicle Data - The report provides insights into global EV sales and penetration rates, indicating a robust growth trajectory [22][24]. 2.2. Vehicle Data: China - The report notes significant growth in China's EV sales, with retail sales reaching 310,000 units in early November 2023, a 70% year-on-year increase [1]. 2.3. Vehicle Data: Europe - European markets are also experiencing growth in EV sales, with detailed statistics provided in the report [29]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the transition of the Chinese EV market towards a more competitive environment, driven by new product launches and ongoing price wars [2]. 4. Industry Perspectives - The report suggests that vertical integration will help manufacturers gain core competencies and bargaining power, leading to cost reductions and efficiency improvements [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong product capabilities, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [2].

热点报告——股指期货 需求温和改善–2024 年 10 月中国经济数据 解读 重要事项：本报告版权归上海东证期货有限公司所有。未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文 中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成交易建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 有关分析师承诺，见本报告最后部分。并请阅读报告最后一页的免责声明。 2、供给端修复分化，服务业好于工业。10 月工业增加值同比增 长 5.3%，较前值回落 0.1%。服务业生产指数同比增长 6.3%，较 前值扩大 1.2%。工业生产回落主因公用事业生产有所放缓，服 务业生产的大幅增长则与证券市场火热，金融供给大幅增加有 关。10 月金融业供给同比增速 10.2%，较上月提升 3.7%。 股 指 期 货 3、需求端消费修复明显，房地产跌幅收窄。10 月社零同比增速 回升至 4.8%，较上月大幅回升 1.6%，成为改善最明显的分项。 主因双十一活动前置 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is currently experiencing volatility following the recent elections, with a significant focus on the implications of Trump's victory and the Republican majority in Congress[2][6]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards increased risk appetite, driven by expectations of Trump's economic policies boosting growth and inflation[2][3]. Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 EPS growth rate for Q3 remains at 5%, slightly above the average growth rate of 4% since 2022, indicating economic resilience[4][18]. - Inflation is showing signs of slowing down, but the pace of decline is not substantial, with concerns about potential rebounds if inflation exceeds expectations[4][18]. Policy Implications - Trump's policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, are expected to positively impact the stock market, while immigration restrictions and tariffs may exert downward pressure[3][13]. - The market is currently pricing in high growth and inflation expectations, but the actual effects of these policies will depend on their implementation details and timing[13][16]. Investment Recommendations - Before more policy details are released, the market's focus will likely return to fundamental economic indicators, with expectations for a strong performance in U.S. equities towards the end of the year[4][18]. - Risks include high valuation levels and potential inflation spikes that could lead to concerns about the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%[4][18]. Risk Factors - Unexpected inflation rebounds, greater-than-expected economic downturns, or insufficient monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could lead to increased market volatility[5][19].

周度报告一 -新能源汽车 10 月多家新势力交付创新高 欧盟反补贴关税正式生效 报告日期: 2024 年 11 月 3 日 ★ 动态跟踪 在国家报废更新补贴和地方置换补贴的支持下，"金九"汽车销 量稳定走强,"银十"车市继续升温。据乘联会发布，10月1-27 日,乘用车新能源车市场零售 94.6 万辆,同比去年 10 月同期增 长 49%,较上月同期下降 1%;全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 104.7 万辆，同比去年 10 月同期增长 45%，较上月同期增长 2%。另外 据各家车企自行发布的交付数据,10月极氪、小鹏、零跑、小 米等多家车企创下新高。 上周，欧盟委员会发布了对华纯电动汽车反补贴调查终裁方案 (终版) 文件并在欧盟官方公报公示,方案宣布,在原有 10% 税率基础上,对自华进口纯电动汽车征收为期五年的额外 7.8%-35.3%的反补贴税（比亚迪 17%、吉利 18.8%、上汽集团 35.3%、特斯拉 7.8%、其他合作公司 20.7%、其他未合作公司 35.3%）。10 月 30 日零时正式生效。商务部新闻发言人答记者 问时表示,中方对裁决结果不认同、不接受,已就此在世贸组织 争端解决机制下提出诉讼。 ...

Market Analysis - The number of newly registered private fund managers has decreased, while the number of new products and average scale have increased[3] - The average scale of existing securities investment fund products has reached a new high for Q2-Q3 2024[3] - Overall data for 2024 is weaker compared to 2023, with effective improvements in Q3 2024[15] Stock Factor Analysis - The CNE5 stock factor analysis indicates a pessimistic outlook for the market, with weak market trends and potential divergences ahead[4] - The CNE6 stock factor suggests a decline in stock market returns, with insufficient profit indicators to support current stock prices[4] - Favorable strategies include low volatility, quantitative strategies, and high-leverage stock strategies[4] Futures Factor Analysis - The futures market shows increased volatility, benefiting quantitative CTA strategies on both long and short sides[5] - Clear mean reversion trends among varieties are unfavorable for discretionary CTA strategies[5] - Short-term momentum factors are declining, while long-term momentum factors are rising, favoring medium to long-term CTA strategies[5] Model Evaluation and Predictions - The mid-volatility futures strategy shows the best performance, followed by the mid-volatility index increase strategy[7] - The optimal prediction scheme indicates that "index benchmark linear prediction monthly return" accounts for 50% of the best prediction scheme[7] - The low volatility strategy is particularly favorable for options strategies[7]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating for the US新能源汽车 industry [1][6][39] Core Views - The US新能源汽车 industry faces significant policy uncertainty ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with potential major shifts depending on whether Biden or Trump wins [1][8][35] - Biden administration has set ambitious goals including 50% EV sales by 2030, 100% clean electricity by 2035, and net-zero emissions by 2050, supported by major legislation like IRA, CHIPS Act, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law [9][22][29][30] - Trump's potential return could reverse many Biden-era policies, with possible impacts including reduced EV subsidies, relaxed emissions standards, and renewed focus on traditional energy [35][36][37] US新能源汽车 Policy Overview - Key policies under Biden include rejoining Paris Agreement, setting 2030/2050 emissions targets, $1 trillion infrastructure law with $7.5B for EV charging, $280B CHIPS Act, and IRA with $7,500 EV tax credits [9][29][30] - California leads with ACC II regulations requiring 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035, though adoption varies by state [22][23] - CAFE standards have tightened under Biden, with proposed 58 mpg target by 2032, reversing Trump-era relaxations [24][25][26][27] - Tariffs on Chinese EVs increased from 25% to 100% under Biden, with additional restrictions on Chinese auto components and technology [32][33] Potential Impacts of Trump Presidency - Likely to reduce emphasis on EV adoption, potentially rolling back Biden's 2030 50% EV target and relaxing emissions standards [35][36] - May impose higher tariffs, including 10% baseline tariff and 60% additional tariff on Chinese goods, while renegotiating USMCA to prevent tariff circumvention [2][37] - Could adopt more open stance towards Chinese automakers setting up US production, contrasting with Biden's FEOC restrictions [3][37] Market Context - US新能源汽车 market shows resilience but faces policy discontinuity and election uncertainty [8] - China's EV exports to US remain minimal at 1.4-1.7% of total exports, limiting impact of US tariffs [34] - Domestic substitution and technological innovation are key trends in China's response to US restrictions [34]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a projected penetration rate of over 50% for new energy vehicles in 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing significant growth, with retail sales of 609,000 units in the first 20 days of October, representing a 45% year-on-year increase [1]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are expected to continue gaining market share, supported by strong product offerings and successful international expansion [2]. - The introduction of advanced battery technologies, such as CATL's "Xiaoyao" super hybrid battery, is expected to enhance the performance and appeal of new energy vehicles [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets Tracking - The report tracks the performance of various segments within the new energy vehicle market, including sodium-ion batteries, lithium batteries, and battery recycling [11]. 2. Industry Data Procurement 2.1. Global Vehicle Data - Global sales of new energy vehicles are on the rise, with significant contributions from China and Europe [13]. 2.2. China Vehicle Data - In China, the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to reach approximately 900,000 units in 2024, with a notable increase in plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs) as well [15]. 2.3. Europe Vehicle Data - European markets are also seeing growth in new energy vehicle sales, with specific data indicating a rise in both EV and PHV sales [16]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1. Policy Information - The report discusses the impact of government policies on the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing the importance of supportive measures for continued growth [5]. 3.2. Industry Trends - Key trends include the ongoing price competition among manufacturers and the emergence of protectionist measures in international markets [2]. 3.3. Company Developments - Notable developments include CATL's advancements in battery technology and Mercedes-Benz's establishment of a battery recycling facility [1][2]. 4. Industry Perspectives - The report emphasizes the importance of vertical integration for manufacturers to maintain competitive advantages and cost efficiencies [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong product capabilities, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a projected penetration rate of over 50% for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China has shown strong growth, with retail sales of 408,000 units from October 1-13, 2023, representing a 64% year-on-year increase [1]. - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 7.54 million units, a 39% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are expected to continue gaining market share, supported by the launch of competitive new models and vertical integration strategies [2]. Summary by Sections Key Targets Tracking - The report includes various charts tracking the performance of key sectors within the new energy vehicle market, such as charging stations, EVs, and battery technologies [11][12]. Industry Data Procurement - Global and Chinese vehicle sales data are presented, showing significant growth in the NEV sector, with a focus on the increasing penetration rates in various regions [13][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable supply chains and strong product capabilities for companies in the industry [2]. Hot News Summary - Recent developments include the global launch of Leap Motor's B series and discussions regarding potential increases in tariffs on large displacement fuel vehicles, which could impact consumer purchasing behavior and promote further green transformation in the automotive industry [1][2]. Industry Perspective - The report indicates that the competitive dynamics are shifting, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through integrated supply chains [2]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong product offerings, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [2].