1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is affected by factors such as China's increased gold reserves, the Fed's interest - rate decision, and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the short term, gold is in a volatile phase, while in the long term, tariffs bring stagflation risks to the US economy, which is bullish for gold [12]. - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, maintaining the interest - rate level and remaining concerned about inflation. As a result, the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. - US stock index futures are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to the Fed's continued suspension of rate cuts and the long - term nature of tariff games [18]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, palm oil is expected to be weak and volatile, while rapeseed oil has strong support; steel prices are in a volatile state; and the container shipping market is expected to be volatile with a wait - and - see approach recommended [20][35][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's interest - rate decision (upper limit) on May 7 was 4.5%, with high unemployment and inflation risks rising. China's gold reserves increased by 2.18 tons in April [11][12]. - In the short term, Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's non - eagerness to cut rates are bearish for gold, but in the long term, tariffs bring stagflation risks to the US economy, which is bullish for gold. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and gold is in a volatile phase [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine is considering using the euro instead of the US dollar as a reference currency. The EU will announce further measures against US tariffs. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [13][14][15]. - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation released positive signals, but the tariff game is expected to be long - term [18]. - US stock index futures are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term [18]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased significantly on May 7. The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on May 7 increased by 293% compared to the previous trading day [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to be weak and volatile, while rapeseed oil has strong support. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [20][22]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Before the release of the USDA's May supply - demand report, analysts estimated the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 24/25 season and the ending stocks of US soybeans. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in forward basis contracts [23][24]. - The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile, and the spot price still has room to fall [26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch continued to increase, and the inventory accumulated. The loss continued, and the operating rate is expected to decline later [27]. - The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [28]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continued to decline. The market is worried about the import reserve auction, which may suppress the futures price in the short term [29]. - The 07 contract of corn should be dealt with from a medium - term bullish perspective, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads are recommended [29]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugarcane area affected by drought in the Guangxi Sugar Group reached 175.53 million mu. The sugar mills in Yunnan and Hainan have different production and sales situations [30][31][32]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the second quarter of 2025, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of sugar mills [33]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Australia launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese steel bars. The steel price was volatile, and the market expectation was weak, but the fundamentals provided support [34][35]. - It is recommended to hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude for short - term unilateral trading and use a rebound hedging strategy for spot trading [36]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Hope sold 1.596 million pigs in April 2025. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly before the festival and increased after May Day [37][38]. - It is recommended to wait and see, and the previous short positions can be held flexibly [39]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market was weakly stable. The second round of coke price increase was put on hold, and the market was waiting and seeing [40]. - In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile, and in the long term, they are expected to be weak and volatile [40]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange modified the regulations on futures registered brands, but polysilicon was not affected. There were rumors of transactions of rod - shaped silicon by leading enterprises, and the industry may discuss production control to support prices [40][41]. - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the supply - side changes and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations in May - June. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and long positions on the left side can be considered [43]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of organic silicon monomers increased and decreased in different regions. The demand was weak, and the price of industrial silicon fell below 9000 yuan/ton [44]. - It is recommended to partially close the previous short positions and not to go long on the left side. Wait for clear signals to consider bottom - fishing on the right side [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei will focus on high - nickel and doped medium - nickel high - voltage ternary precursor products. The price of nickel was volatile, and the cost of nickel - iron production was high, with a high probability of production reduction [45][47]. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band trading within the range [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Goldman Sachs raised the copper price forecast for the second and third quarters. The macro factors are in an important observation window, and the domestic inventory is decreasing, which supports the price [49][51]. - It is recommended to conduct band trading for copper prices, and gradually take profits on the Shanghai copper positive spread strategy [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates due to the trade war. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the demand is weaker [53][54]. - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and pay attention to the spot and import changes after the festival [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates due to the trade war. The zinc price was volatile, and the demand is expected to weaken in the future [56][58]. - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies on the mid - line and maintain the mid - line positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons. The core trading logic is to test the cost support of the resource end, and short - term trading rhythm should be noted [59]. - It is not recommended to chase short positions or bottom - fish based on valuation. Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the gasoline inventory increased slightly. The short - term rebound driving force of oil prices is weak, and the downward risk is high [61][62]. - Oil prices still have a downward risk in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the price was stable with slight increases. The urea export may be relaxed in the future, but the probability of significant relaxation in the short - to - medium term is very low [63][64][65]. - Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the urea 9/1 positive spread [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand is mild [66][68]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have limited upward movement [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was stable with slight increases in some areas. The short - term pulp market is expected to be weak and volatile [69]. - The pulp market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [69]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell. The market expects tariffs to have a negative impact on demand in the next month [70][72]. - PVC is expected to be weak [72]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories increased, and the supply pressure increased due to the high operating rate. The processing fee is expected to be under pressure [73][74][75]. - The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was volatile, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream demand was average [76]. - In the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies, and in the short term, pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [76]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable. The glass futures price was slightly volatile, and the spot price was stable. The market is expected to be weak in the absence of positive policies [77]. - The glass futures price is expected to be in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [77]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk and CMA CGM imposed PSS on some routes from China. The US line is over - booked, and the freight rate has increased, which may boost the shipping companies' sentiment. The market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [78]. - In the absence of obvious driving factors, it is recommended to treat the market with a volatile mindset and wait and see [79].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 供需差扩大，光伏玻璃价格存在下行风险 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 7 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/30 当周）： 截至 4 月 30 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 14 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 22.5 元/ 平米，环比上周持平。 节前一周有两条光伏玻璃产线点火，行业产能和产量水平继续上 升。近期多条光伏玻璃新线投产，实际供给增加较多。基于当前 市场行情已经开始转弱，不排除后续产线点火计划推迟的可能。 能 源 目前光伏终端抢装潮退坡趋势明显，组件市场将进入加速调整 期，5 月组件排产或面临下调压力。光伏玻璃消费力不足，5 月 份需求预计较 4 月份整体下滑。 化 工 节前一周光伏玻璃厂家库存增幅较大，主要是下游需求退坡趋势 明显，且组件厂家仍有一定量光伏玻璃库存，导致拿货积极性不 高。进入 5 月份，随着光伏玻璃供给量回升至高位，而需求较 4 月整体有所下滑，供需差进一步加大，行业库存有继续上涨风险。 ★ 供需分析： 五一节后行业将迎来月度新价，但此轮议价预计博弈时间较长。 随着节后 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中美高层将举行会谈，EIA 下调美国原油产量 预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-07 宏观策略（黄金） 中美高层将举行会谈 国际金价大涨近 100 美金，受贸易局势和地缘政治风险升温的推 动国内开市后黄金表现强势，关税问题仍然是市场交易的核心， 外交部官宣中美高层将就贸易问题接触，利空黄金。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 欧盟与美国关税谈判收效甚微 综 关税谈判进展波折，关税影响可能会逐步显现，三大股指震荡 偏弱运行。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 五一假期全国出游人次 3.14 亿同比增 6.4% 报 节后第一个交易日 A 股气势如虹，放量上涨。中美贸易缓和与 中国产业升级的主题掩盖了宏观面承压的现状。市场处于下有 底，上有顶的状态中，仍需消化不利影响。 农产品（玉米） 节后首个工作日玉米现货延续上涨态势 期货价格出现小幅回落，现货价格则仍然相对强势。进口拍卖 的担忧增加，在北港基差仍然偏弱、部分贸易商群体仍然谨慎 的情况下，短期或会抑制期货的上涨势头。 能源化工（原油） EIA 下调今年美国产量预期 油价修复性反弹，EIA 下调今年美国原油产量预期。 航运指数（集 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc, maintain the main judgment of shorting on rallies in the medium - term. In May, demand may weaken more than supply, and low inventory is expected to gradually ease. Consider adding options for protection around May Day and look for short - selling opportunities after observing inventory changes [8][9][11]. - For lead, in May, the fundamentals may show a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but be cautious when opening short positions due to limited price decline space [25][26]. - For nickel, wait for the low - buying opportunity of ni2507. Nickel iron has the logic of rebound and valuation repair, and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity when the import loss is around 5000 [38][42]. - For polysilicon, pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507 and the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [54][55]. Summary by Directory 1. Zinc - **Previous Strategy Review**: The short - selling strategy on rallies for the main contract of Shanghai zinc has achieved about a 6% decline since April 1st. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy had good returns but is facing short - term pressure [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 is expected to increase significantly. Domestic TC has room to rise in the first half of the year. In May, the zinc ingot output may decline slightly, and the impact on supply is not significant. Downstream demand is weak, and the inventory inflection point is expected to appear in mid - May [9][10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [13]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: LME zinc seasonal inventory, domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory, smelter comprehensive income considering some by - products, and raw material inventory of three primary downstream industries [13][15][17][19]. 2. Lead - **Previous Strategy Review**: The short - selling strategy on rallies for lead in the quarterly report was affected by the macro - impact in April. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy was profitable, but the short - term pressure is increasing [22]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: In May, the fundamentals may be weak in both supply and demand. The secondary smelter may recover after raw material replenishment, while domestic demand has peaked and exports are under pressure. Pay attention to the inflow of imported lead [23][24][25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to high - level internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [27]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: Scrap battery price and Shanghai lead main contract, LME lead seasonal inventory, five - region lead ingot seasonal social inventory, and lead concentrate and refined lead import profit and loss [28][33][32][34]. 3. Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Previous Strategy Review**: After the equal - tariff was implemented in April, the nickel price was mainly guided by the macro - aspect. The previous internal - external positive arbitrage strategy was profitable [37]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: The nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the nickel iron price is expected to rebound. The NPI may be converted to high - grade matte, and the NPI supply will decrease. The demand for stainless steel and new energy is weak [38][39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Wait and see in the short - term and look for low - buying opportunities of ni2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities when the import loss is around 5000 [42]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: Nickel internal - external Shanghai - London price ratio change, nickel theoretical import profit and loss change, SHFE nickel inventory change, and LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant change [43][47][45][48]. 4. Polysilicon - **Previous Strategy Review**: The previous PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage strategy performed well [50]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: In May, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to decline to 98,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production is expected to decline to 54GW. The polysilicon inventory will continue to decline by about 10,000 tons. The spot price is expected to be flat month - on - month. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [51][52][54]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - 2508 [55]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: China's polysilicon weekly inventory, China's silicon wafer weekly inventory, China's battery cell export factory weekly inventory, and China's photovoltaic module inventory [57][59].

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 期现共振上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 5 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：玉米、小麦现货明显上涨，玉米 07 合约冲破 2350 压力 位。"若无规模化替代，7 月现实缺口将暴露"的预期或正逐步兑现， 随着 7 月节点的临近，支撑我们这一观点的现象也逐步出现。深加 工企业玉米虽然因亏损而消耗量缓慢下滑，但原料库存持续大幅下 降；中储粮虽然转向净轮出状态，但拍卖成交率和溢价双高，均表 明商业库存或逐步趋紧。 下周观点： 农 产 品 中期看，现实供需的转强预计将继续驱动价格上涨，07 合约全年的 高点有望达到 2450 元/吨左右，届时基差、月差也有望形成 back 结 构，主要是考虑到以下几点原因：1）生猪存栏与均重双高，预计能 量总需求同比回升幅度较好，淀粉恢复出口与副产品受豆粕拉动， 预计将延 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 美国汽车关税政策受压回撤 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，据乘联会发布，4 月 1-27 日全国乘用车新能 源市场零售 72.8 万辆，同比增长 24%，新能源市场零售渗透率 52.3%，今年以来累计零售 314.8 万辆，同比增长 33%；4 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 84.6 万辆，同比增长 25%，新 能源厂商批发渗透率 53.9%，今年以来累计批发 369.5 万辆，同 比同期增长 38%。 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 企业端，多车企发布 4 月销量数据，比亚迪以 38 万辆的销量数 据继续稳居领先地位，吉利、零跑、小鹏等新能源销量数据抢眼。 海外市场方面，受美国汽车及零部件关税影响北美新车市场 3 月销量高增长，但关税争对汽车而非新能源汽车，因而渗透率未 出现明显变化（见图表 23-26）。压力下关税政策有所回撤，4 月 29 日发布两项行政命令，一是进口整车关税仅由 2025 年 3 月 26 日第 10908 号公告确定，不得适用其他关税（免除钢铁、铝 的单独关税，避免多项关税叠加）；二是为在美国本土生产的整 车企业提供税收抵免，部分抵消其进口零部件所面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the May Day holiday, lithium salt prices hit new lows. The core trading logic is to test the effectiveness of cost support from the resource end under the premise of weak demand. In the medium to long term, cost support may decline further due to companies' cost - reduction efforts, but short - term trading rhythms need attention. Salt plants' planned maintenance and production cuts, and the narrowing of the carbon - hydrogen price difference are factors to watch. It is not recommended to continue short - selling at the current point, and investors should wait patiently for opportunities to short on rebounds [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Position Increase Tests Cost Support, Lithium Prices Hit New Lows Before the Holiday - Before the holiday (April 28 - 30), lithium salt prices dropped. LC2505 and LC2507 contract closing prices decreased by 3.9% and 3.3% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices dropped by 2.7%. The closing price of the Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate near - month contract decreased by 2.7%. Weekly lithium hydroxide prices slightly declined, and the price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate significantly narrowed [11] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Premier African Minerals raised over £1.5 million to support the Zulu lithium - tantalum project. The funds will be used for the secondary flotation plant and creditor affairs [15] - Australia's IGO lowered its capital expenditure forecast for the Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia in the 2025 fiscal year, from the previous range of $850 - 950 million to about $780 million [15] - Sichuan Tianfu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [16] - Piedmont Lithium's production and sales in the first quarter of 2025 decreased compared to the previous quarter. The lithium spodumene concentrate production at its NAL project was 43,261 dry tons, a 15% decrease, and sales were about 27,000 dry tons, a 59% decrease [16] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Continue to Decline - The spot average price of lithium concentrate decreased, with the lithium spodumene concentrate spot average price (6%, CIF China) dropping from $793/ton to $773/ton, a 2.5% decrease [12] 3.2 Lithium Salts: The Main Contract Approaches the 70,000 - yuan Mark Again - Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 2.7%. The closing prices of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate futures near - month and main contracts decreased by 3.9% and 3.3% respectively [12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Decline - The spot average prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and cobalt - acid lithium decreased to varying degrees [12] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Increased Significantly Year - on - Year in March - China's new energy vehicle production and sales in March showed high - year - on - year growth, and the penetration rate also increased [41]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 基本面弱势，现货博弈加剧 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 西北某大厂表示后期有减产意愿，但具体减产时间不确定。随 丰水期到来，四川在五一节之后部分硅厂有复工计划。需求端 仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅 需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9400- 9700 元/吨。后续关注供给端边际变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 硅料现货成交有限，预计大量成交将待五一之后。考虑龙头企 业西南基地复产推迟及部分企业有减产检修计划，我们下修 5 月多晶硅排产至 9.9 万吨左右，环比 4 月有所减少。根据 SMM，截至 4 月 30 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 26.1 万吨，环比 +0.2 万吨。下游原材料库存约 11 万吨，下降至 1 个月水平左 右，并在硅片厂中呈不均匀分布，部分企业无太多囤货有刚需 采购需求，部分企业硅料库存仍较为充足、策略仍以消化在手 库存为主。上下游博弈剧烈，买方基于需求转弱、下游价格下 跌，心理预期价格较低，而卖方考虑下游部分刚需采购、且从 上市公司披露的一季报情况看，即使是 Q1 价格也已致使头部 硅料企业亏损大量现金流，因此买 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global stock markets continued to recover this week, with US stocks achieving a V-shaped reversal. The pricing duration of global risk assets is getting shorter, actively pricing in factors such as optimism about tariff negotiations, resilient non - farm employment data, and better - than - expected tech stock earnings reports. For A - shares, the market is supported by factors like the potential acceleration of Sino - US negotiations, clear technology industry trends, and capital support from the "national team". However, the performance of small - cap stocks is concerning. In Q1 2025, the profit growth rate of listed companies was 3.46%, slightly higher than expected, but the resilience was mainly in blue - chip stocks. The valuation levels of small - cap indices such as CSI 2000 and BeiZheng 50 have reached historical extremes, and the risk of potential return decline should be vigilant [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: Wait for the return of market liquidity. The performance of small - cap stocks is worrying, and attention should be paid to the risk of potential return decline due to high valuations [11] - **This - week Key Events**: - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to stabilize employment and the economy, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, and expanding effective investment. It also planned to issue additional car purchase indicators for specific groups. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade reported that nearly half of foreign - trade enterprises would reduce US business and 75.3% planned to expand emerging markets [11][13][14] - On April 29, the national leader emphasized that Shanghai should build a global - influence scientific and technological innovation high - ground. Three departments jointly issued a notice to clean up and rectify unreasonable regulations on market access barriers. China's service trade deficit in Q1 2025 decreased year - on - year [16][17][18] - On April 30, China's manufacturing PMI in April fell to 49. The foreign ministry stated that there was no Sino - US tariff negotiation. The national leader emphasized the importance of developing new - quality productivity in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [19][20][21] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Markets Weekly Overview**: From April 28 to May 2, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 2.97%, with emerging markets (+3.30%) > developed markets (+2.93%) > frontier markets (-0.11%). The Taiwan stock index led the world with a 9.62% increase, while the Saudi stock market performed the worst with a 2.03% decline [23] - **Chinese Stock Markets Weekly Overview**: From April 28 to May 2, in the Chinese equity market, Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.104 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.8 billion yuan from last week. The A - share market showed a differentiated trend, with the BeiZheng 50 index rising 2.38% and large - cap blue - chip indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50 generally falling about 0.5% [26] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week. The information technology industry increased by 4.26%, while the energy industry increased by only 0.82%. In the Chinese market, the telecommunications service industry led with a 2.27% increase, and the real estate industry led the decline with a 3.03% decrease [30] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 9 industries rose (24 last week) and 21 industries fell (6 last week). The media industry led the rise with a 2.86% increase, and the comprehensive industry led the decline with a 3.48% decrease [31] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The small - cap growth style was dominant this week [36] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: No specific data was provided in the text, only references to relevant charts [38][40] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: The valuation levels of some broad - based indices such as CSI 2000, KeChuang 50, and BeiZheng 50 have reached historical extremes [43] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The valuation levels of different primary industries vary, with some industries such as defense and military industry having extremely high PE ratios [44] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [45][50] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indices**: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.21 [59] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 200 million yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 150 million yuan [63] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.1 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 400 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.7 billion shares [68][72] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply - side**: The tire operating rate declined [74] - **Consumption - side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [94] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices stabilized and rebounded [95]