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中美“对等关税”跟踪系列三:贸易摩擦对SoC行业影响相对可控,SoC板块2025Q1淡季不淡,2025年或是端侧AI应用落地元年
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Sino-US trade friction on the SoC industry is relatively controllable, with limited effects on exports to the US due to product exemptions [1][5]. - The SoC sector is showing strong performance in Q1 2025, defying seasonal trends, driven by increased demand for AI applications and products [1][5]. - 2025 is anticipated to be the year of significant AI application deployment, with a surge in demand for SoC driven by the proliferation of edge AI applications [1][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Impact of Trade Friction - The US has exempted certain products, including integrated circuits and smartphones, from "reciprocal tariffs," suggesting limited impact on the SoC industry [1][5]. - Companies like Rockchip and Allwinner have reported low exposure to direct exports to the US market, mitigating potential risks from trade tensions [1][5]. Q1 2025 Performance - TaiLing Microelectronics expects Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, with a return to profitability [1][5]. - Allwinner Technology anticipates a net profit of 85 to 100 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73-104% [1][5]. - Goke Microelectronics projects Q1 2025 revenue of about 191 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%, with a significant rise in net profit [1][5]. Future Outlook for AI Applications - 2025 is projected to be a landmark year for AI applications, with rapid penetration in various sectors, including IoT and personalized services [1][5]. - The demand for SoC is expected to rise significantly as AI technology transitions from cloud to edge applications, enhancing the capabilities of smart devices [1][5].
中美“对等关税”跟踪系列二:集成电路原产地认定方式修改为流片地规则,国产厂商或迎来进口替代机遇期
电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 4 月 14 日 强于大市 中美"对等关税"跟踪系列二 集成电路原产地认定方式修改为流片地规则,国产厂商 或迎来进口替代机遇期 海关总署对集成电路进口原产地认定方式修改为流片地规则。在美国本土拥有 Fab 厂 的半导体公司或受较大影响。国产厂商则有望迎来进口替代的机遇期。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 建议关注:中芯国际、华虹公司、海光信息、龙芯中科、寒武纪、盛科通信、安 路科技、复旦微电、紫光国微、圣邦股份、思瑞浦、纳芯微、芯海科技、龙迅股 份、兆易创新、中颖电子、士兰微、卓胜微、唯捷创芯、慧智微等。 评级面临的主要风险 全球经济下行。贸易政策变化。科技创新不及预期。 相关研究报告 《AI 算力产业链更新报告》20250311 《《2025 年政府工作报告》电子行业相关要点及 解读》20250310 《AI 行业跟踪》20250207 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子 证券分析师:苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300522080003 联系人:茅珈恺 jiakai.mao@boc ...
恒瑞医药(600276):制药龙头稳健增长,创新研发大步向前
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth, achieving a revenue of RMB 27.985 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.337 billion, up 47.28% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of RMB 6.704 billion, RMB 7.975 billion, and RMB 9.204 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12] - The innovative drug segment is showing significant contributions, with revenues reaching RMB 138.92 billion in 2024, a 30.60% increase year-on-year, accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 27,985 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 22.6% [8] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected at RMB 7,271 million, with a corresponding growth rate of 50.5% [12] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 6,337 million, reflecting a growth rate of 47.3% [12] Valuation - The company is projected to have an EPS of RMB 1.05, 1.25, and 1.44 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 46.0, 38.7, and 33.5 times [6][12] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the pharmaceutical industry, with a strong pipeline of innovative drugs and a well-established market presence [4][9] - The company has strengthened its commercial layout, covering over 22,000 hospitals and 20,000 retail outlets, enhancing its market access [9]
光威复材(300699):装备用T700、T800级产品放量,风电碳梁业务恢复性增长
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure in 2024; however, the T700 and T800 grade products are expected to ramp up production, and the wind power carbon beam business is showing signs of recovery [2][6] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated growth from new product launches [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 2,450 million RMB, a decrease of 2.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 741 million RMB, down 15.12% year-on-year [6][11] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to see revenue of 548 million RMB, a decline of 28.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 126 million RMB, down 49.93% year-on-year [12] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 RMB for every 10 shares to all shareholders in 2024 [6] Business Segment Performance - The carbon fiber and fabric, wind power carbon beam, and prepreg businesses are the three main segments contributing to the company's revenue, accounting for 90.70% of total revenue [10] - The T700 and T800 grade carbon fiber products are performing well, with T800 grade products seeing a revenue increase of 64.64% year-on-year [10] - The wind power carbon beam business has shown recovery after two years of decline, achieving a revenue of 5.37 million RMB, up 25.81% year-on-year [10] Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.02 RMB, 1.17 RMB, and 1.30 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28.5, 24.9, and 22.3 [7][9] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 45.55%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is projected at 28.01%, down 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [10]
尚太科技(001301):产销规模快速增长,盈利具备较强韧性
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong resilience in profitability, with rapid growth in production and sales scale, particularly in negative electrode materials. The implementation of a differentiated product strategy has contributed to this growth, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement efforts are ongoing [5][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 7.39 billion in 2025, reflecting a 41.4% increase year-on-year [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.23 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and a net profit of RMB 838 million, up 15.97% [10][11]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates revenue between RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 85.78% to 97.39% [10]. Production and Strategy - The company is focusing on differentiated products, achieving rapid growth in the sales of negative electrode materials, with a sales volume of 216,500 tons in 2024, up 53.65% year-on-year [10]. - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, including a 200,000-ton negative electrode project in Shanxi and a 50,000-ton project in Malaysia, expected to commence production in 2026 [10]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 3.85, RMB 5.14, and RMB 6.19, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.5, 10.1, and 8.4 [7][9].
中银晨会聚焦-20250414
证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 14 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250414 ■重点关注 【固定收益】非能源通胀企稳*张鹏 肖成哲。上游价格呈现企稳态势,反映 内需改善。政策利率降息可能取决于贸易摩擦对居民储蓄倾向的冲击效应。 【电子】鹏鼎控股*苏凌瑶。公司发布 2024 年年报,2024 年公司成功实现"云、 管、端"AI 全链条布局,并持续推进新能源汽车业务,紧跟全球技术变革的 浪潮,为公司未来发展注入新动能。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3238.23 | 0.45 | | 深证成指 | 9834.44 | 0.82 | | 沪深 300 | 3750.52 | 0.41 | | 中小 100 | 6174.23 | 1.22 | | 创业板指 | 1926.37 | 1.36 | 行业表现(申万一级) | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 3.77 | 农林牧渔 | (3.18) | | 汽车 | 2.20 | ...
华鲁恒升(600426):经营业绩稳中有进,发展动能持续增厚
基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 14 日 600426.SH 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 20.99 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (0.5) (4.5) 5.6 (21.8) 相对上证综指 0.2 (0.4) 3.4 (28.5) 发行股数 (百万) 2,123.22 (23%) (15%) (7%) 1% 9% 18% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 华鲁恒升 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,119.18 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 44,566.39 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 403.66 | | 主要股东 | | | 山东华鲁恒升集团有限公司 | 32.08% | 资料来源:公司公告, Wind ,中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 11 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《华鲁恒升》20240827 ...
澜起科技(688008):景气上行叠加新品突破,全互联设计平台加速迈进
电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 14 日 688008.SH 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 75.06 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 13.8 (4.9) 16.9 59.2 相对上证综指 14.6 (0.7) 14.7 52.5 发行股数 (百万) 1,144.79 (10%) 7% 24% 41% 58% 76% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 澜起科技 上证综指 相关研究报告 《澜起科技》20241031 《澜起科技》20240827 《澜起科技》20240708 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子:半导体 证券分析师:苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300522080003 联系人:李圣宣 shengxuan.li@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号:S1300123050020 ...
电力设备与新能源行业4月第2周周报:新能源汽车销量保持高景气度,电建组件集采终止-20250414
电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 4月 第 2 周周报 新能源汽车销量保持高景气度,电建组件集采终止 光伏方面,对美国及全球新兴经济体光伏需求增速保持乐观。中央经济工作 会议明确提出综合整治"内卷式"竞争,光伏供给侧改革力度有望加强。光伏 制造降本增效仍为主线,重点关注硅料、电池片头部企业格局优化、盈利提 升以及金属化新技术渗透率提升。风电方面,国内海陆风招标及建设有望稳 步推进,2025 年需求向好或带动整机与零部件环节盈利修复;同时伴随国内 项目招标动工、海外利率下行及项目规划推进,海外及出海需求亦相对旺盛。 建议优先配置盈利有望改善的整机及锻铸件环节,受益于海风、出海逻辑的 整机、桩基、海缆环节。新能源车方面,政府工作报告提出大力发展智能网 联新能源汽车,全年销量有望保持高增,带动电池和材料需求增长。近期受 供需影响,部分材料环节出现涨价,有望带动盈利回升,2025 年或迎来量利 齐升。新技术方面,固态电池产业化持续发酵,2027 年或实现量产,在相关 领域有布局的电池、材料和设备企业有望受益。建议优先布局格局较优的电 芯环节,海外 ...
策略周报:重视关税博弈下的自主可控行情-20250413
策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 13 日 策略周报 重视关税博弈下的自主可控行情 关税不确定性依旧,A 股有望展现相对优势;关税博弈之下,行业轮动速度 及复杂性或有短期提升,防御属性与自主可控是两大行情演绎主线。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师:王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300519060003 证券分析师:徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300518020001 证券分析师:郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300521110001 证券分析师:徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300521070003 证券分析师:高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S13005 ...