Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Views - The report highlights that the sales area in March 2025 was 111 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, showing a narrowing of the sales decline compared to February [2][14]. - The total investment in real estate development in March 2025 was 918.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, which is a slight increase in the decline compared to February [8][11]. - The new construction area in March 2025 was 63.82 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, although this decline has narrowed compared to February [8][18]. - The report suggests that from mid-April, attention should be paid to the real estate sector's market performance, as various policies are expected to stimulate demand and support recovery [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales of Commercial Housing - The sales area in March 2025 was 111 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, and the sales amount was 1.05 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [2][16]. - The average selling price of commercial housing in March was 9,475 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [9][16]. - The report anticipates a continued negative growth in new home sales for 2025, with expected year-on-year declines of 9% in sales area and 12% in sales amount [2][8]. 2. Inventory of Commercial Residential Properties - The broad inventory of commercial residential properties reached 1.7 billion square meters by the end of March, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.1% [3]. - The current housing inventory, which includes completed but unsold properties, was approximately 422 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3]. 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Construction, and Completion - The total development investment in March was 918.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.0% [8][11]. - The new construction area in March was 63.82 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 18.1% [8][18]. - The completion area in March was 42.96 million square meters, down 11.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2010 [8][18]. 4. Developer Financing - The total funds available to real estate companies in March were 915.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [5][18]. - Personal mortgage loans and domestic loans showed positive growth, indicating an improvement in bank lending [5][18]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller companies with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery of the second-hand housing market [8].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 16 日 | | | | 4 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 600428.SH | 中远海特 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 603081.SH | 大丰实业 | | 002916.SZ | 深南电路 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250416 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】一季度进出口数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵。3 月我国出口明显提速。 主要贸易对手对出口同比增速实现正贡献。部分机电产品仍维持出口优势。 "扩内需"仍将是未来宏观政策的主要发力点。 【电力设备】大金重工*陶波 武佳雄 曹鸿生。公司公布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司实现营收 37.80 亿元，同比-12.61%，实现归母净利润 4.74 亿元，同 比+11.46%；实现扣非后归母净利润 4.33 亿元，同比+17.70%。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Hold" [1][5][7] Core Views - The company has shown initial success in its "New Two Seas" strategy, with significant improvements in operational quality. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.46% to 474 million RMB [5][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for wind power installations both domestically and internationally, particularly in the offshore wind sector in Europe, which is expected to see rapid growth starting in 2025 [10][11] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding its production capacity, aiming for a global capacity of over 3 million tons, with a focus on establishing a marketing network in Europe and Southeast Asia [10][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,780 million RMB, with a gross margin of 29.83%, an increase of 6.39 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points [11][12] - The company forecasts revenues of 5.23 billion RMB, 7.59 billion RMB, and 8.80 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 711 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.31 billion RMB [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 RMB, 1.59 RMB, and 2.05 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.4, 14.3, and 11.1 for the same years [7][9]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 关税风波致国际贸易与运输秩序混乱，极兔速 递一季包裹量同比增长 31.2% 航运方面，特朗普关税政策反复无常，国际贸易与运输秩序或陷入混乱；航 空方面，东航将在沪开通一条全新国际航线，深圳机场一季度出入境人数达 160 万 ；快递方面，极兔速递第一季度包裹量 66 亿件，清明假期全国揽投 快递包裹超 28 亿件 核心观点： ①特朗普关税政策反复无常，国际贸易与运输秩序或陷入混乱。特朗普 4 月以来的关税政策反复无常，特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣布的"对等关税"政 策几乎适用于其所有的贸易伙伴，但其实施方式却极为不均衡。"对等 关税"对中国商品的税率极高（在原有 20%的基础上再加征 34%，即总 税率为 54%），延续了特朗普 1.0 时期的政策，同时越南也以 46%的税 率首次被纳入高关税范围。4 月 10 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征 收"对等关税"的税率进一步提高至 125%。4 月 11 日，美国政府又同意 对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品免除所谓"对等关税"。②东航将在 沪开通一条全新国际航线，深 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Hold" [1][5][7] Core Views - The company has shown initial success in its "New Two Seas" strategy, with significant improvements in operational quality. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.78 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.46% to 474 million RMB [5][10] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for wind power installations both domestically and internationally, particularly in the offshore wind sector in Europe, which is expected to see rapid growth starting in 2025 [10][11] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding its production capacity, aiming for a global production capacity of over 3 million tons, which will support future growth [10][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,780 million RMB, with a gross margin of 29.83%, up 6.39 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 12.54%, an increase of 2.71 percentage points [11][12] - The company forecasts revenues of 5.23 billion RMB, 7.59 billion RMB, and 8.80 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 711 million RMB, 1,017 million RMB, and 1,310 million RMB [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 RMB, 1.59 RMB, and 2.05 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.4, 14.3, and 11.1 for the same years [7][9]

Trade Data Summary - In Q1 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year in USD terms, accelerating by 3.5 percentage points compared to January-February[2] - Imports fell by 7.0% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points from the previous two months[2] - The trade surplus reached $272.97 billion in USD terms, or ¥1.96142 trillion in RMB[2] Monthly Performance - In March 2025, exports surged by 12.4% year-on-year, improving by 15.4 percentage points from February[2] - Imports decreased by 4.3%, a significant drop of 5.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The trade surplus for March was $102.64 billion, an increase of $70.92 billion from February[2] Key Trade Partners - Exports to ASEAN countries rose by 11.6% in March, marking the highest share since 2008 at 17.9% of total exports[2] - Exports to the EU increased by 10.3%, with a notable improvement of 21.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports to the US grew by 9.1%, with an increase of 18.9 percentage points compared to February[2] Economic Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes "expanding domestic demand" as a key focus for future macroeconomic policy[3] - The spokesperson highlighted the resilience of the domestic market, stating it remains a significant support for the economy[3] - Risks include potential economic recession in Europe and the US, along with increasing international complexities[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark in the next 6-12 months [2][55]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 2.39% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 10th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. However, it outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.82 percentage points [2][14]. - Despite short-term market fluctuations due to tariff issues, the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support and high consumer sentiment in travel and consumption-related industries [2][5]. - The report highlights strong growth in the travel market, with significant year-on-year increases in domestic travel during the Qingming Festival, indicating ongoing robust demand in the sector [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was mixed, with three sub-sectors showing gains: tourism retail (+10.29%), tourism and scenic spots (+4.66%), and hotel dining (+1.82%). In contrast, professional services and education saw declines of -5.66% and -8.12%, respectively [18][21]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 33.88 times, which is below the historical average, suggesting potential for growth [22]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others. It also highlights hotel brands benefiting from the recovery in business travel and policies promoting employment [5][46]. 3. Travel Data Tracking - Recent data indicates a recovery in domestic travel, with significant increases in passenger volumes for both domestic and international flights compared to pre-pandemic levels. The report notes that international flight volumes have recovered to 88.17% of 2019 levels [2][39].

强于大市 计算机行业周报（4.7-4.11） 计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 关税波动，国产替代未来可期 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求不及预期。 相关研究报告 《计算机行业点评》20250210 《计算机行业点评》20250117 《计算机行业点评》20250108 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 计算机 证券分析师：杨思睿 美国加征关税导致全球贸易局势紧张，我们认为有望利好科技自主可控主线；杭州程 天科技消费级外骨骼机器人上架 15 秒后即宣告售罄，彰显了外骨骼机器人在消费场 景下的发展潜力。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 关税政策影响下建议关注科技自主可控相关企业，包括软通动力、达梦数据、寒 武纪、云天励飞等；以及基本面良好、受关税影响较小的合合信息；外骨骼板块 建议关注楚天科技、伟思医疗、科大讯飞、赛为智能。 评级面临的主要风险 (8610)66229321 sirui.yang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518090001 证券分析师：郑静文 jingwen.zheng@bocichina.co ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 15 日 300207.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 18.44 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (13.8) (22.4) (13.5) 33.1 (15%) 6% 26% 46% 67% 87% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 欣旺达 深圳成指 | 绝对 | (13.8) (22.4) (13.5) | 33.1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 相对深圳成指 | (11.7) (12.5) (10.7) | 26.0 | | 发行股数 (百万) | 1,845.81 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 1,711.69 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 34,357.38 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 846.81 | | 主要股东 | | | 王明旺 | 19.43% | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in new home sales, with a significant drop in transaction volume and area, indicating a challenging market environment [18][19]. - The second-hand housing market shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in transaction volume but a decline in year-on-year comparisons [45]. - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to urban renewal and infrastructure improvement as a means to stabilize the real estate market [90]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction volume in 40 cities decreased by 24.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 16.8% [19]. - New home transaction area was 192.0 million square meters, reflecting a 30.8% decrease from the previous week and a 14.8% year-on-year decline [27]. - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities decreased by 0.2% week-on-week and 16.9% year-on-year, with a depleting cycle of 13.8 months [40]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land sold across 100 cities was 1,593.3 million square meters, down 13.1% week-on-week but up 135.0% year-on-year [61]. - The total land transaction price was 35.83 billion yuan, reflecting a 54.8% decrease week-on-week but a 497.7% increase year-on-year [67]. - The average land price per square meter was 2,249 yuan, down 48.0% week-on-week but up 154.4% year-on-year [63]. 3. Policy Overview - The central government announced continued support for urban renewal actions in 2025, focusing on infrastructure improvements and consumer-oriented projects [90]. - Local governments are implementing measures to enhance housing affordability and streamline financing for homebuyers, such as reducing down payment ratios and expanding subsidy programs [91]. 4. Company Performance and Bond Issuance - The report notes an increase in domestic bond issuance by real estate companies, totaling 19.94 billion yuan, up 207.7% week-on-week and 30.9% year-on-year [54]. - The absolute return of the real estate sector was -1.5%, while relative returns compared to the CSI 300 index were 1.4%, indicating a slight improvement [49].