Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.58 [1][2][9] Core Views - The company's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while the Saucony brand showed strong growth potential [6][8] - The company is focusing on accelerating its direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy for its main brand and expanding the Saucony product matrix, which is expected to create a second growth curve [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 13,577 million - 2025E: RMB 14,486 million (growth of 6.69%) - 2026E: RMB 15,789 million (growth of 9.00%) - 2027E: RMB 17,385 million (growth of 10.10%) [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 1,238 million - 2025E: RMB 1,372 million (growth of 10.82%) - 2026E: RMB 1,530 million (growth of 11.52%) - 2027E: RMB 1,711 million (growth of 11.81%) [5] - The company’s EPS is expected to increase from RMB 0.45 in 2025 to RMB 0.61 in 2027 [5] Operational Insights - In Q2 2025, the main brand's overall channel revenue showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the Saucony brand's revenue grew over 20% year-on-year [6][8] - The main brand's running category continues to be a significant growth driver, with expectations of double-digit growth in the first half of the year [7] - The company anticipates a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months, maintaining a stable operational rhythm [7] Market Positioning - The Saucony brand is expected to achieve 30%-40% revenue growth for the year, driven by channel optimization and product upgrades [8] - The company is focusing on high-end brand positioning and expanding its product offerings to include lifestyle and leisure products [8]

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on the growth and trends in the ETF market, including the performance of various ETF categories, fund company strategies, and fee adjustments. No quantitative models or factors are mentioned in the provided documents.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector [6] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials sector [6] Core Insights - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development in China indicates a shift from large-scale expansion to stock quality improvement, impacting the construction and building materials industry [1][2] - Urban renewal is identified as a key focus area, with significant investment opportunities in infrastructure upgrades, consumer-oriented building materials, and smart urban operations [2][5] - The integration of urban planning and design is emphasized, requiring higher capabilities from architectural firms to enhance urban living experiences [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to concentrate on modern urban systems and urban renewal, with a focus on key projects that align with national priorities [4] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Urban renewal is highlighted as a critical strategy, with an estimated investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan for the renovation of nearly 600,000 kilometers of urban pipelines over the next five years [2] - The demand for consumer-oriented infrastructure and renovation of existing properties is projected to increase the market share of building materials like coatings [2] Architectural Design and Planning - The report notes a shift towards integrated urban planning that enhances the capacity to support population and economic growth, which will elevate the requirements for architectural design firms [3] Infrastructure Investment Focus - The report outlines a strategic focus on infrastructure that supports modern urban systems, including transportation, energy, and water management, which are expected to maintain a favorable investment climate [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from urban renewal and infrastructure projects, including leading firms in construction design and smart urban operations [5] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China State Construction, Tunnel Corporation, and Three Trees, with target prices and buy ratings provided [8][9]

Investment Rating - The aviation industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The industry is expected to maintain a low supply growth rate, which could improve the supply-demand relationship and enhance airline profitability if demand recovers [1][4] - Despite weak ticket prices recently, the high passenger load factor indicates potential for revenue management improvements [1][4] - The report recommends continuous monitoring of peak season ticket prices and passenger load factors, with a positive outlook for major airlines [1][4] Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factor Performance - In June, the three major airlines maintained a high passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Spring Airlines experienced a slight decline in load factor to 92.1%, while Juneyao Airlines showed improvement with a load factor of 86.7% [3] Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The three major airlines forecasted a narrowing of net losses for Q2 2025, with Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to report net losses of 0.94 billion, 4.05 billion, and 8.00 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 78.0% [4] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to better revenue levels, with domestic ticket prices showing a smaller decline compared to previous quarters [4] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights several stocks with a "Buy" rating, including Air China (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH) [8][21] - Target prices for these stocks are set at 6.90 HKD for Air China, 3.20 HKD for China Eastern, and 5.00 HKD for China Southern, among others [8][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.00, up from the previous target of HKD 16.25 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 18% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of HKD 60.13 billion. However, net profit is forecasted to decline by 21% to 35% year-on-year, primarily due to increased non-cash share payments and rising operational costs associated with expanding its proprietary brand business [1][4]. - The regulatory environment in the US and Europe is tightening, which is anticipated to drive demand for compliant products, positively impacting the company's core vaporization business [2][4]. - The new HNB product, Glo Hilo, has shown promising performance in the Japanese market, indicating significant growth potential for the company as it expands its product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 13.23 billion, HKD 21.40 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.21, HKD 0.35, and HKD 0.45 [4][10]. Market and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the enforcement of regulations by the FDA in the US and similar measures in Europe are expected to restore sales of compliant vapor products, benefiting the company's market position [2][4]. Product Development and Innovation - The Glo Hilo product, launched in Japan, features enhanced heating efficiency and a variety of flavor options, which are expected to validate the product's market potential and drive future growth [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 65 for 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages in the HNB market, leading to a target price increase [4][10].

Macro Insights - The U.S. June CPI shows partial transmission of tariffs, with core CPI rising 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3% [2] - The second quarter GDP growth in China is steady at 5.2%, down from 5.4% in the first quarter, indicating a slowdown in the second industry and impacts from tariffs on exports and production [3][4] - The nominal GDP growth rate decreased from 4.6% in the first quarter to 3.9% in the second quarter, with trade surplus contribution dropping from 2.2 percentage points to 1.4 percentage points [3] Consumer Sector - In June, retail sales in China reached 4.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points from May [6] - The consumer market is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, driven by policies supporting domestic demand and trends in emotional consumption and domestic brands [6] Real Estate Sector - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and market service opportunities, suggesting a focus on companies with urban renewal resources and community service capabilities [7] - Real estate sales and prices are still declining, indicating a bottoming-out phase, with a focus on core cities for recovery and companies with good credit and product quality [7] - Recommendations include A-share developers like Chengdu Investment and Hong Kong developers like China Overseas Development [7] Power and Utilities - In the first half of 2025, coal power approvals increased by 152%, indicating a strong likelihood of exceeding 60GW for the year, supporting the recovery of coal power profitability [8] - Companies like Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric are recommended due to their potential to benefit from the increasing approvals [8] Construction and Materials - Investment growth in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing shows divergence, with infrastructure maintaining high growth while real estate investment declines [9] - The focus is on supply-side capacity clearing and high-growth segments, with recommendations for companies like Huaxin Cement and China Nuclear Engineering [9] Aviation Sector - Huaxia Airlines is reaffirmed as a buy with a target price of 12.55 yuan, expecting a significant CAGR of 71.1% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 due to recovery in flight utilization and favorable subsidy policies [11] Food and Beverage - Guoquan's first half of 2025 shows a net profit increase of 111-146%, driven by supply chain efficiency and effective product strategies [12] - The company is positioned for long-term growth with a focus on expanding its community kitchen model [12] Healthcare Sector - Meili Tianyuan Medical Health expects a revenue increase of at least 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in beauty and health sectors [16] - The company is focusing on expanding its customer base and enhancing shareholder value through strategic initiatives [16] Chemical Sector - Zhongyan Chemical reported a revenue decline of 5.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in net profit, but maintains a "hold" rating due to its integrated operations and resource advantages [17]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Market event-driven characteristics are rising, increasing potential asset volatility. Key macro events include Trump's tariff remarks, potential early departure of Powell, escalating uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and domestic policy expectations [1][2]. - In response, it's advisable to rely on high - odds opportunities from macro events for left - hand reversal trading, seek high - probability opportunities based on fundamental trends, and diversify asset allocation from a macro - risk perspective [1][2]. Summary by Directory Current Market Influencing Events - **Trump's Tariff Remarks**: Trump proposed additional reciprocal tariffs, planning 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and 25% - 40% on Japan and South Korea. The market's reaction is relatively calm under the TACO expectation, but the probability of final tariff implementation is not low [9][10]. - **Fed Independence Challenge**: Powell's early departure is a potential black swan event. If it occurs, it may lead to a rapid steepening of US Treasury yields and a significant decline in the US dollar. Trump may appoint more dovish candidates, increasing inflation and long - term interest rate risks [13]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is rising, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitical disturbances has decreased significantly. However, if oil prices remain high for a long time, it may bring a "stagflation" shock to the global economy [17]. - **Domestic Policy Expectations**: The market focuses on the implementation of policies such as "anti - involution" and "urban renewal", and upcoming events include the July domestic important meeting and the China - EU Summit [20]. Market Condition Assessment - **Domestic**: The summer travel boom remains resilient, real - estate transactions are differentiated, "anti - involution" supports black - commodity prices, and external demand has declined. Monetary policy focuses on short - term liquidity management, and fiscal policy involves special treasury bond issuance, employment stability, and pension adjustment. Real - estate policies continue to boost demand [3][45]. - **US**: The labor market remains resilient, consumption is marginally improving, tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is decreasing [3][46]. Allocation Recommendations - **Domestic Bonds**: Support factors for the domestic bond market remain. The market is more sensitive to monetary policy and capital flows. Interest - rate bonds can be traded in bands, and 7 - and 10 - year bonds can be bought on significant adjustments [41]. - **Domestic Stocks**: The next policy focus is the July important meeting, and the earnings disclosure period is approaching. Investors are advised to strengthen trading thinking to prevent fluctuations [42]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: There are many short - term disturbances. It is recommended to start buying 10 - year US Treasury bonds around a 4.5% yield [42]. - **US Stocks**: As the earnings period approaches, the focus shifts to corporate earnings. The short - term trend may be volatile and differentiated [43]. - **Commodities**: Gold is still in an upward trend, with short - term volatile and strong performance. The price of black - commodity is affected by "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term uncertainty of oil prices is high [44]. Follow - up Concerns - **Domestic**: LPR quotes [5][60]. - **Overseas**: US June PPI monthly rate, industrial production monthly rate, retail monthly rate, Fed's economic situation Beige Book, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate, May trade balance and current account, and UK June employment data [5][61].

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for June increased by 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year, the core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, meeting expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month rose from 0.08% in May to 0.29% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%[1] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariff impacts are beginning to show, particularly in core goods and services, despite some weakness in used and new car prices[2] - 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass tariff costs onto consumers within three months, contradicting claims that tariffs do not affect domestic prices[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The analysis maintains the expectation of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December due to potential labor market slowdowns[2] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased to 54%[1] Specific Item Analysis - Core goods inflation rebounded to 0.20% month-on-month from -0.04% in May, driven by significant increases in clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods[5] - Energy prices saw a notable recovery, with energy goods rising by 3.5 percentage points to 1.04% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.1 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include the possibility that tariff impacts on domestic prices may be less than expected and the potential for significant tightening of financial conditions in the US[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 348.00, reflecting a significant upside from the current closing price of HKD 263.20 [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue increase of no less than 200% for 1H25, translating to approximately RMB 13.67 billion, with Q2 growth potentially exceeding 220% [1]. - The group's profit is projected to increase by no less than 350%, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1]. - The company is establishing itself as a global leader in the IP (Intellectual Property) space, leveraging product innovation to enhance IP value [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant profit increase of no less than 350% for H1, corresponding to approximately RMB 4.34 billion and a net profit margin of 31.7%, an increase of over 10 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 56.9%, 68.9%, and 68.4% to RMB 10.2 billion, RMB 15.2 billion, and RMB 19.7 billion respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market continues to show strong momentum, with average store efficiency increasing by 60% in Q2, and online sales on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin growing over 170% [2]. - The company’s IP, particularly the Labubu plush series, has gained significant traction, leading to high demand and premium pricing [2]. Global Expansion - The company has seen a rapid increase in its global fan base, with North American and European followers growing by over 1400% and 600% respectively in Q2 [3]. - The establishment of over 30 new overseas stores in H1, with a focus on high-efficiency regions, indicates a robust international expansion strategy [3]. Innovation and Product Development - Continuous product innovation, particularly in the plush category, is expected to drive sales growth and enhance brand value [2]. - The company is diversifying its offerings through various business models, including merchandise stores and animated content, which are anticipated to further enhance revenue streams [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.30 [1][2][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 180-210 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111-146% [1][6] - The significant profit growth is attributed to improved supply chain efficiency and effective pricing strategies, which have enhanced store performance and accelerated store expansion [6][7] - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, supported by a successful new store signing process [7][9] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025E: RMB 7,246 million (up 12% from 2024) - 2026E: RMB 8,355 million (up 15.3% from 2025) - 2027E: RMB 9,608 million (up 15% from 2026) [5][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025E: RMB 398.41 million (up 72.8% from 2024) - 2026E: RMB 517.09 million (up 29.79% from 2025) - 2027E: RMB 661.81 million (up 27.99% from 2026) [5][10] - The report anticipates an increase in the company's core operating profit margin, expected to exceed 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on a "community central kitchen" strategy, expanding its product offerings to include home-cooked meals and various dining solutions [9][10] - The introduction of high-value meal packages and the enhancement of store operations through self-sourcing and cost efficiencies are key components of the growth strategy [6][9] - The company is also leveraging its supply chain advantages to create high-cost performance products and enhance customer engagement through innovative retail formats [9][10]