Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its previous profit forecasts for 2024, with projected revenue of HK$13.074 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$854 million (up 42.6%) [1] - The report highlights strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the tobacco export sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [6] Revenue and Profit Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of HK$13.074 billion and a net profit of HK$854 million, with a gross margin of 10.54% [1] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and profit growth of 48% [1] Tobacco Leaf Import and Export - Tobacco leaf import revenue is projected at HK$8.254 billion (up 2.2%), with a decrease in quantity to 112,000 tons (down 4.5%), but an increase in average selling price (ASP) leading to a gross margin of 10% [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach HK$2.062 billion (up 24.8%), with an increase in quantity to 83,500 tons (up 18.4%) and a gross margin of 4.07% [2] Cigarette Export Performance - Cigarette export revenue is projected at HK$1.574 billion (up 30.2%), with a quantity of 3.34 billion sticks (up 19.1%) and a gross margin of 17.63% [3] - The growth is attributed to expanded operational regions and an increase in self-operated business [3] Brazil Operations and New Tobacco Products - Revenue from CBT (Cigarette Blending Technology) leaf exports is expected to be HK$1.05 billion (up 37%), despite a decrease in quantity to 31,600 tons (down 2.4%), with a gross margin of 17.51% [4] - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected at HK$135 million (up 4.0%), with a quantity of 762 million sticks (up 12.5%) and a gross margin of 5.2% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strategy of capital market operations and international business expansion, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding operational regions for cigarettes, CBT, and new tobacco products [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of HK$14.416 billion, HK$15.753 billion, and HK$17.238 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK$958 million, HK$1.095 billion, and HK$1.236 billion [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.95X, 15.69X, and 13.91X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [2]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in the high-quality, affordable beverage sector, with a robust expansion strategy driving growth. Revenue increased from 10.35 billion yuan in 2021 to 20.30 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 40% [1][15]. - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages in China is over 510 billion yuan, with significant growth potential, especially in lower-tier cities. The industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth rates [1][41]. - The company has established a strong supply chain and brand presence, enabling it to thrive in competitive markets. Its marketing strategies, including the "Snow King" IP, have significantly enhanced brand visibility [1][10]. Company Overview - The company focuses on providing high-quality, affordable beverages, with an average price of around 6 yuan (approximately 1 USD) [10]. - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates over 45,000 stores across 31 provinces in China and has expanded into Southeast Asia, with significant store counts in Vietnam and Indonesia [10][12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain, including a central factory and a dedicated logistics system, which enhances operational efficiency [10][11]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing strong growth, with the global market size expected to increase from 598.9 billion USD in 2018 to 779.1 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 5.4% [41]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with per capita consumption expected to rise from approximately 11 cups in 2023 to 26 cups by 2028 [41]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ready-to-drink beverage sector, particularly in the affordable segment, which is gaining traction in lower-tier cities [1][41]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 25.7 billion yuan, 30.3 billion yuan, and 34.1 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.4 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan [2][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 28x, 25x, and 23x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2].

低估值反攻 ——2025 年 3 月量化行业配置月报 核心观点 主线切换，低估值反攻有望开启，看好小市值与顺周期的交集方向，建议关注基础化 工、汽车、新能源等方向的配置机会。 风格维度，我们基于龙虎榜数据构建的大资金活跃度指标目前仍处上行趋势，这 意味着小盘风格或仍将相对占优。在市场成交活跃的背景下，若前期主线陷入调 整，市场的自发选择或是寻找其他低位补涨方向，而非选择红利进行防御。目前 来看，两会公布的政策力度基本符合市场预期，未来进一步的上行催化或来自基 本面的企稳修复。从高频数据来看，地产成交热度回升是当前较为显著的边际变 化，北上深的二手房成交量节后已基本修复至去年"924"政策后的高水平，"金 三"逐步成型，顺周期方向或逐步迎来基本面的顺风期。综合来看，或可关注顺 周期板块中整体市值偏小的细分行业，建议关注基础化工、汽车、新能源等方向 的配置机会。 ❑ 机械设备、通信、计算机、电子四行业触发拥挤信号。 截至 3 月 5 日，机械设备、通信、计算机、电子四行业的拥挤度较高，位于滚动 3 年的 95%分位预警阈值以上，或需警惕股价潜在的波动风险。 ❑ 综合策略最近一个月收益 4.6%，相对行业等权指数及 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - February CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, and below market expectations of -0.4%[1] - February PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -2.2%, slightly lower than the previous -2.3% and market expectations of -2.1%[1] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, February CPI year-on-year growth remained positive at 0.1%[3] Group 2: Price Movements - Food prices in February decreased by 3.3%, contributing approximately 0.60 percentage points to the CPI decline[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with gasoline prices rising by 1.3%[5] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) year-on-year decreased by 0.1% in February, indicating some upward support from certain service prices[7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The government aims for a CPI increase of around 2% for the year, reflecting a direction rather than a strict control measure[8] - The current inflation level is seen as in the early stages of bottoming out and recovering, with potential for further monetary easing throughout the year[1] - The overall economic environment suggests a gradual recovery in consumer demand, supported by counter-cyclical policies[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the overseas and domestic markets for the engineering machinery industry are experiencing upward resonance, positioning SANY Heavy Industry as one of the companies with the greatest earnings elasticity due to its significant share in the excavator market [1][2] - Despite market concerns regarding insufficient real estate demand and infrastructure funding, the report anticipates a recovery in the engineering machinery industry, with SANY benefiting from its high revenue share from excavators [2][5] - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is seen as a move to enhance its global strategy and improve governance transparency [2][3] Company Summary - SANY Heavy Industry's excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024, making it the second highest among domestic manufacturers [2] - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 49 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year increase [5][10] - The international revenue for SANY reached 235 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, marking a 4.8% increase and accounting for 62% of total revenue [10] Industry Summary - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 53% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in February 2025 [3] - Domestic sales of excavators reached 11,640 units in February 2025, a 99% increase year-on-year, indicating a warming market [3] - The report suggests that the anticipated end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to increased overseas demand for engineering machinery, benefiting leading companies like SANY [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaxia Precision, is a leader in small modulus gears and is expected to expand into the humanoid robot sector, which presents significant growth opportunities [2][9]. - The report highlights the company's core advantages, including product synergy, technological capabilities, and strong customer resources, particularly in the automotive sector [2][15]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Xiaxia Precision is a leading domestic small modulus gear manufacturer, with automotive gears accounting for 60% of its revenue in 2023, and a gross margin of approximately 29% [12][29]. - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue and 24% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [17]. Humanoid Robot Market Potential - The report identifies screws and reducers as core components for humanoid robots, with a significant market potential as the industry matures [9][34]. - The market for planetary roller screws is projected to reach approximately 668 billion yuan if annual production of humanoid robots reaches 500,000 units [43]. Gear Business - The global gear market was valued at 1.3 trillion yuan in 2023, with expectations for the automotive and electric tool gear markets to reach 112.8 billion yuan and 35.3 billion yuan, respectively, by 2025 [3]. - The company has established a strong customer base and has formed advantages in technology, production, and quality control, positioning itself as a leader in the small modulus precision cylindrical gear market [3][19]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 685 million yuan in 2024, with a projected net profit of 68 million yuan, reflecting a 5% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 1.1 yuan, 1.4 yuan, and 1.5 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 90, 71, and 64 [4][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the public utility sector [3]. Core Views - The nuclear technology application industry is entering a strategic opportunity period for comprehensive layout and accelerated development over the next 5 to 10 years, as highlighted during the National Two Sessions [3][63]. - The public utility sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the public utility index down 0.5% and the environmental protection index up 2.29% this week [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green electricity operations and the potential for price declines in the energy market due to the entry of new energy sources [2][67]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The public utility sector index decreased by 0.5%, ranking 28th among 31 industries, while the environmental protection sector index increased by 2.29%, ranking 12th among 32 industries [1][8]. - As of March 7, 2025, the public utility sector's PE (TTM) is 16.46 times, and PB (LF) is 1.45 times; the environmental protection sector's PE (TTM) is 21.06 times, and PB (LF) is 1.44 times [1][21]. Key Industry Dynamics - The National Forestry and Grassland Administration supports the rational use of forest and grassland for wind power projects, encouraging development in desert and degraded areas while protecting sensitive ecological zones [3][65]. - The report identifies key stocks in the public utility sector, including China Nuclear Power, Fuan Energy, and Dongfang Electronics, focusing on green electricity operations and coal power [2][67]. Investment Recommendations - In the green electricity sector, the report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from new energy projects, particularly those in offshore wind energy [2][67]. - For the coal power sector, it recommends monitoring major state-owned enterprises like Guodian Power and Datang Power, as coal prices are expected to stabilize [2][67]. - The gas sector is highlighted for its potential cost optimization due to global energy price declines, with companies like Fuan Energy and Shenzhen Gas being of interest [3][68]. - The water and nuclear sectors are also recommended for their stable cash flow and recovery in project approvals, with companies like China Nuclear Power and Huaneng Water Power being key players [3][68].

证券研究报告 金属行业有色价格日报 ——2025年3月6日 行业评级：看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 沈家悦 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 shenjiayue@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 日度金属价格变化 | | 最新金属价格 | | | 日度涨跌幅 | 今年至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 | 5 . | 0 . | 00% 0 29% - . | | 氢氧化锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 | 0 . | 0 - | 10% 0 50% . . | | 铜 | 万元/吨 | 7 | 8 . | 1 . | 30% 5 84% . | | 黄金 | 元/克 | 680 | 2 . | 0 - | 05% 10 06% . . | | 电解镍 | 万元/吨 | 12 | 9 . | 0 . | 39% 2 47% . | | 铝 | 万元/吨 | 2 | 1 . | 1 . | 41% 5 26% . | | 铅 | 万元/吨 | 1 | 7 . | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The government work report released on March 5 indicates a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to maintain ample liquidity and promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets. This positive signal supports the outlook for the brokerage sector, particularly in the context of a rebound, mergers and acquisitions, and high earnings growth [1] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy catalysts, with long-term investment reforms in insurance funds being actively promoted. The recent approval of an additional 60 billion yuan for investment is anticipated to further solidify the foundation for healthy development in the equity market, leading to a sustained upward trend in the insurance investment sector [2] - In the cryptocurrency market, recent political statements from former President Trump are expected to stabilize market expectations, although short-term volatility is anticipated. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the U.S. government is seen as a long-term positive for Bitcoin's value [3] Summary by Sections Brokerage - The report recommends specific brokerage firms: China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, while suggesting to pay attention to Dongxing Securities, Western Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Huaxi Securities [4] Insurance - Recommended insurance companies include Xinhua Insurance, China Life, and China Property Insurance [4] Multi-Financial and Fintech - The report suggests investing in Zhinanzhen and Dongfang Caifu, with a focus on Top Point Software and Wealth Trend [4] Overseas Financial - Recommended overseas financial firms include Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Tiger Brokers, with attention to Lianlian Digital and OSL Group [4] Market Performance - The report notes that from March 3 to March 7, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.56% and 2.19%, respectively, while the multi-financial index increased by 3.68% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the food and beverage industry [3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see opportunities, particularly in the liquor segment, as the market transitions from low to high demand. The second quarter is anticipated to enter a low base period, making it a favorable time for investment [1][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of strong brand power, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets for leading liquor companies. It also highlights the potential for investment opportunities arising from retail transformations in 2025 [1][10] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and high certainty in Q1 performance. The government report emphasizes boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, which may catalyze a structural bull market for liquor [1][10] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, and mid-range brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Jiuzi [10] Consumer Goods Sector - The investment focus for 2025 in the consumer goods sector is on two main lines: the prosperity line and the recovery line. The report suggests that sectors like snacks and beverages are expected to perform better than dairy and health products [2][21] - The restaurant supply chain is highlighted as a key area for policy support, with expectations for demand recovery and valuation improvements. Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili [2][21] Market Performance - From February 28 to March 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.39%, with the liquor sector showing a 1.51% increase. Notable performers included Gujing Gongjiu (+4.97%) and Luzhou Laojiao (+3.91%) [5][25] - The report notes that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a valuation adjustment, with the industry trading at 20.40 times earnings as of March 7, 2025 [30]