证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 3 月通胀：服务价格拉动核心 CPI，生产资料价格涨跌互现 2025 年 3 月 CPI 和 PPI 数据解读 核心观点 3 月 CPI 同比增速为-0.1%（前值-0.7%），基本符合市场预期（Wind 一致预期为 -0.1%），环比增速走低至-0.4%（前值为-0.2%），主要是季节性因子和国际油价波 动的影响。3 月 PPI 同比增速录得-2.5%（前值-2.2%），略低于市场预期（Wind 一致预期为-2.2%），主要受国际输入性因素影响和部分出口行业价格下行等影响。 我们认为，2025 年政府工作报告将 CPI 涨幅设定为 2%左右，更多表现为努力实 现的方向，而并非将物价涨幅控制在目标以下，当前通胀水平正处于筑底回升的 早期阶段，有效需求恢复的弹性空间较大。值得关注的是，人工智能、高性能大模 型等广泛应用，高技术产业发展对相关行业价格起到拉动作用，3 月可穿戴智能设 备制造价格同比上涨 4.6%。 大类资产方面，风险偏好或成为重要的影响因子。我们认为，未来其他国家对美 贸易谈判是我国内需政策的关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear. The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may continue to disrupt the global financial market. The trade negotiations between China and the US have many variables, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs may just be the start of future frictions and negotiations [1][2]. - Tariff trading should focus on response rather than prediction. Given the low visibility of Trump's policies, it is more cost - effective to avoid unpredictable disturbances and focus on more certain trading directions. In the domestic bond market, the direction of the market is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher. In the equity market, large - cap stocks are more cost - effective than small - cap stocks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the US dollar liquidity crisis [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear - On the early morning of April 10, 2025, Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while maintaining a 10% benchmark tariff rate, which caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market. The game between market expectations and reality is the main driver of financial asset price changes. For example, the US stock market had significant fluctuations around tariff expectations in the days around April 9 [11]. - The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may not subside. There are still many variables in the trade negotiations between China and the US. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs is only a start, and it is difficult to reach acceptable trade agreements within 90 days due to the wide - ranging impact of these tariffs [17][18]. 3.2 Tariff trading may focus on response rather than prediction - The low visibility of Trump's policies makes tariff prediction difficult, and the risk - return ratio of expected trading is not matched, with high trial - and - error costs. It is more advisable to focus on certain trading directions [19][20]. - In the domestic bond market, the central bank's control over the capital market has not fully relaxed, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate breaking the previous high has raised expectations of monetary policy easing. The market direction is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher [20][22]. - In the domestic equity market, the bottom is relatively firm. When the bond market is unclear, it is recommended to focus on large - cap stocks such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, as they can control risks while pursuing returns. Small - cap stocks like the CSI 1000 have high risks and high returns and are more suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance [26]. - The SOFR - OIS spread has shown a slight upward trend recently. The risk of basis trading caused by the significant adjustment of US Treasury yields may be the main reason. If Trump's tariff policy lasts longer than expected, it may test the US dollar liquidity [30][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 2.15 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 46%, which aligns with expectations [1] - Revenue for the year 2024 is projected to be 5.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, with a net profit of 2.06 billion, up 42% [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 7.07 billion, 8.71 billion, and 10.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 20% [5] Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 2.15 billion, a 46% increase year-on-year, which meets expectations [1] - The gross margin for 2024 is 82.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 37.2%, down 4 percentage points [2] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.19 per share, with a payout ratio of 60% [1] Business Segmentation - The main brand, Kefu Mei, generated revenue of 4.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63%, accounting for 82% of total revenue [3] - Online sales accounted for 72% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 70% [3] - The second brand, Keli Jin, saw revenue of 840 million, a 36% increase year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the collagen protein sector, with strong growth in its main brand and accelerating growth in its second brand [5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market presence with significant online sales growth and expansion into new retail locations [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 房地产服务 物业公司价值修复空间打开 ——物业行业点评 1）中高端物业+AI 优化成本，长期打开利润修复空间 新房市场供给呈现"量缩质优"的趋势，政策端对"好房子"持续进行引导，改 善型住宅需求占比持续提升，有望为中高端物业带来发展机遇。中高端住宅的物 业费标准通常比普通住宅高两倍左右，物业公司营业成本中广义人工成本占比近 7 成，中高端物业单价高、人工成本占比高的特点为后续成本优化提供空间。AI 科技的应用能够助力物企优化成本，例如通过自动化管理停车、电梯等系统，减 少人工巡检和维修频率，降低维护和人员成本。我们认为，未来在 AI 科技赋能 下，物业公司有成本优化空间，有望逐步实现利润修复。 2）ROIC 分子和分母端均有优化空间 我们认为，由于物业公司轻资产、强现金流的属性，ROIC 和股息率双重指标可 以作为对比估值的主要判断依据。提升物业公司 ROIC 有两条思路：a）分子端 提升：①提升运营效率（例如科技应用降本增效）、②增加高利润率业务收入占 比（例如增加市场化定价的商办业务占比）、③增强定价权（例如提升物业费匹 配更好的服务）。b）分母端的提升，我们认为主要体现在 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 消费电子 消费电子 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 对等关税冲击造成短期波动，云开雾散仍是成长核心 ——消费电子之果链点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑 1.北美重要客户在 AI 需求的带动下，在同质化竞争激烈的环境下，对于外观辨识 度、散热的进化与迭代要求持续升级。 2.公司自身品类覆盖从玻璃到金属、到组装业务的持续延展，进而带动公司产品 ASP 总价值量提升，以及抗周期波动能力加强。 随着 2025 年 AI 智能手机以及 2026 年折叠屏产品的推出，iPhone 大部分零部件环 节有望实现量价齐升，以蓝思科技、领益智造为代表的核心供应商受益明确，而 近期对等关税贸易冲突的发生，令整个果链估值体系大幅下修并且市场认可度出 现波动，我们认为这种政治事件性冲击的影响是有时限的，而且本质并未改变果 链的成长逻辑。 ❑ 超预期逻辑 美国对等关税的推出，市场普遍认为非美生产的 iPhone 零部件企业均会面临严峻 的出口成本压力。 我们认为 （1）苹果过去几年对其供应链体系做了前瞻性的全球化布局和持续深入的多元化 改革，其核心供应商大多拥有稳健的全球供应链体系。截至目前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 22.8% for 2024, a significant increase of 6.8 percentage points compared to 2023 [5] - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to grow by 8.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 6.2% [2][5] - The company's net interest margin has rebounded, reaching 1.86% in Q4 2024, up by 5 basis points from Q3 2024 [3][5] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% at the end of Q4 2024, unchanged from the previous quarter [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 66,631 million, reflecting an 8.2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be 27,127 million, a 6.2% increase [6] - The revenue growth is attributed to a recovery in net interest margin and improved drag [2] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 22.8%, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 3.85% as of April 9, 2025 [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of Q4 2024, with a slight increase in retail loan non-performing rates [4] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 15 percentage points to 389% [4][5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a modest revenue growth trajectory, supported by sufficient bond floating profits [2] - Forecasted net profit growth for 2025-2027 is 6.61%, 6.81%, and 6.77% respectively [5]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 10 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜】宏观专题研究："对等关税"未来如何演绎——20250408 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】徐工机械（000425）公司点评：拟 18-36 亿元回购股份彰显信心，新徐工迈 向全球工程机械龙头——20250408 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：4 月 9 日上证指数上涨 1.31%，沪深 300 上涨 0.99%，科创 50 上涨 4.31%，中证 1000 上涨 2.21%，创业板 指上涨 0.98%，恒生指数上涨 0.68%。 ❑ 行业：4 月 9 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+6.27%)、商贸零售（+5.18%)、房地产（+4.4%)、计算机 （+3.87%)、社会服务（+3.58%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-0.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.958 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, an increase of 16.62% year-on-year [1] - The company's banking IT solutions faced significant pressure due to reduced technology investments in the banking sector, leading to a 25.78% year-on-year decline in revenue for this segment [2] - Internal management improvements have led to a notable increase in profit margins, with a comprehensive gross margin of 29.02%, up 3.08 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is actively optimizing its business matrix and expanding its product lines, including significant projects in non-banking IT services and overseas markets [4] - The company is embracing generative AI technology, establishing a comprehensive service system to support AI applications in banking, which is expected to drive future growth [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.592 billion, 5.234 billion, and 5.563 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.03%, 13.97%, and 6.29% respectively [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.958 billion yuan, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a 16.62% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved to 29.02%, with operating costs decreasing by 27.10% year-on-year [3] Business Development - The company is expanding its service offerings beyond banking IT, securing contracts worth nearly 130 million yuan in national projects and entering the securities market [4] - The overseas business has seen new orders close to 100 million yuan, marking a significant achievement in international expansion [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth, with projections indicating a return to positive growth rates starting in 2025 [6] - The focus on generative AI is expected to create new growth avenues, enhancing the company's competitive position in the financial technology sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 1.769 billion yuan, down 10.82% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 415 million yuan [1] - The company's digital government and enterprise digitalization businesses are experiencing rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 31.07% in this segment [2] - The introduction of the enterprise-level AI model integrated machine is expected to enhance collaboration and drive growth in related businesses in 2025 [2] - The company plans to fully embrace AI technology in 2025, integrating it across various operational aspects to improve efficiency and service capabilities [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.016 billion, 2.307 billion, and 2.610 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of -100 million, 2 million, and 75 million yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 872 million yuan, a decrease of 29.31% year-on-year, and a net loss of 173 million yuan [1] - The revenue breakdown shows public safety big data at 672 million yuan, electronic data forensics at 711 million yuan, digital government and enterprise digitalization at 278 million yuan, and new network space security at 107 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes [2] Business Development - The launch of the AI model integrated machine aims to meet the demand for private deployment of large models in government and enterprise sectors, enhancing the company's digital solutions [2] - The company is focusing on integrating AI technology into research, marketing, and customer service to drive efficiency and cost reduction [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with long-term growth potential from new business segments and synergies with Guotou Group [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 1006% to 1.201 billion [1] - The significant growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to improved production efficiency and revenue from shipbuilding products, as well as better performance from joint ventures [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.7 billion and 2 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1005.77% to 1200.91% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 554.01% to 672.92% [1] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is seeing a mixed demand with a 61% year-on-year decline in new orders from January to March 2025, while container ship orders increased by 238% [2] - The new ship price index has shown a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, indicating a historical peak since 2021 [2] - Supply constraints and inflationary pressures are expected to drive ship prices higher [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025 to 2027 are approximately 850 million, 1.616 billion, and 2.410 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 125%, 90%, and 49% [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 35, 19, and 12, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 1.6, 1.5, and 1.3 [4]