量化基金周度跟踪（20250331-20250403） 证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 4 月 5 日 主动量化收跌，指增小幅跑赢基准 本报告重点聚焦量化基金市场表现，总结近一周主要指数和量化基金业绩表现、 不同类型公募量化基金整体表现和业绩分布，以及本周收益表现较优的量化基 金，供投资者参考。 ❑市场整体表现： 本周（3 月 31 日-4 月 3 日）A 股市场整体收跌，各类型量化基金平均收益 表现分化。 ❑主要指数表现： 主要股指均下跌，其中中证1000、中证500、沪深300分别跌1.04%、1.19%、 1.37%。 ❑各类基金表现： 本周各类型量化基金平均收益表现分化，主动量化跌 0.85%；市场中性涨 0.06%，57%的市场中性基金获得正收益。各指数增强型基金均小幅跑赢基 准，其中其他指增、中证 1000 指增和中证 500 指增超额收益率在 0.20% 以上。 ❑风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述，并 不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 江 ...

【债市情绪】上周债市情绪指数为 114.6，较前值回落 0.1；债市情绪扩散指数 49.9%，较前值回升 0.3 个百分点。 【机构久期】上周五基金久期为 2.17 年，较前一周五回升 0.04 年；农商行久 期为 2.70 年，较前一周五回落 0.07 年；保险久期为 6.89 年，较前一周五回落 0.10 年。 【杠杆率】上周质押式回购余额为 11.0 万亿元，较前值回升 0.1 万亿元；大行 净融出余额为 3.2 万亿元，较前值回升 0.1 万亿元；债市杠杆率为 103.5%，较 前值持平。 证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 04 月 05 日 基金久期继续回升——债市晴雨表 【二级成交】上周从换手率来看，30Y 国债换手率为 1.7%，较前值回落 0.3 个 百分点。10Y 国债换手率为 1.2%，较前值持平；10Y 国开债换手率为 23.8%， 较前值回落 4.3 个百分点；超长期信用债换手率为 0.49%，较前值回落 0.16 个 百分点。 【配置力量】债市配置力量来看，上周债基新发行份额为 0 亿元，较前值回落 153 亿元；风险偏好来看，股市风险溢价为 1.48%，较前值回升 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, indicating that performance elasticity is expected in 2025 due to a bullish market environment and base effect from previous years [1][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the securities industry is experiencing a recovery in revenue and net profit, driven by a rebound in equity markets and a strong bond market [1][9]. - The overall revenue for the 21 listed securities firms reached 369.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while net profit rose by 15% to 113.9 billion [14][16]. - The report emphasizes the structural differentiation in business performance, with proprietary trading showing significant growth while investment banking revenues are under pressure [24][39]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance and Recovery - Q4 performance has significantly contributed to the annual recovery, with a quarterly revenue of 107.5 billion, up 30% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [16]. - The average return on equity (ROE) for the 21 listed firms was 5.65%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, with leverage ratios rising to 5.14 times [28][29]. Business Segment Analysis - **Brokerage Business**: Brokerage income reached 77 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year, driven by retail investor participation [30][37]. - **Investment Banking**: Investment banking revenue was 22.1 billion, down 28% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [39][47]. - **Asset Management**: Asset management income was 36.1 billion, a slight decrease of 3% year-on-year, but the scale of managed assets stabilized at 6.1 trillion, up 3% [50][54]. Annual Outlook - The report forecasts total revenue for the securities industry in 2025 to be 468.6 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, with net profit expected to reach 180.4 billion, an 11% increase [9][13]. - The report suggests that the regulatory environment remains supportive, with expectations of continued inflow of medium to long-term capital into the market [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing stocks such as CITIC Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, indicating a significant potential for valuation recovery [9][10].

专题报告 相关报告 1、《地方两会陆续召开，"两 新"政策接续》20250117 2、《2025 年政府工作报告怎么 看？对 A 股有什么影响——政 策专题（0305）》20250305 3、《2024 年中央经济工作会议 如何指引 A 股？———中央经 济工作会议点评》2024-12-13 4、《12 月政治局会议五大看点 ——政策专题》2024-12-09 5、《924 发布会一揽子政策出 台 ， 将 如 何 影 响 A 股 ？ 》 2024-09-24 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 研究助理 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 核心关注：美国对等关税落地后，国内还有哪些政策预期尚待落地？ 美国 总统特朗普 4 月 2 日在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，若政策落 地则将对出口产生较大影响。因此，政策亟待发力提振内需。李强总理在上 月末举行的中国发展高层论坛 2025 年年会中也曾明确表态，必要时推出新 的增量政策。因此，政策进一步发力值得期待。3 月两会期间的经济主题记 者会给予了较多的政策 ...

关税靴子落地，出口行业影响面面观 ——特朗普对等关税点评 事件： 当地时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，特朗普发表讲话并签署行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙 伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 证券研究报告 | 宏观分析报告 2025 年 4 月 3 日 核心观点： ❑ 第一，对等关税大超市场预期，欧洲、加墨、南美受影响相对较小，亚非地 区加征高额税率，本质或是基于制造竞争力实施梯队关税。 欧洲方面，本次宣布的欧盟对等税率为 20%，略低于此前预期的 25%，英 国税率仅为 10% 加墨方面，本应在4月5日加征的25%关税取消，取而代之的是符合USMCA 的加墨产品不征收关税，不符合 USMCA 的加墨产品征收 25%关税，不符 合 USMCA 的能源和钾肥征收 10%关税，若芬太尼/移民 IEEPA 命令被终止 还有下修的空间，即符合 USMCA 的商品将不征收关税，不符合 SMCA 的 商品征收 12%的对等关税。 南美方面，巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、秘鲁均只加 10%。 亚洲方面，日本、韩国、印度分别为 24%、25%、26%，东盟国家遭重，菲 律宾、马来西亚、印尼、泰国、缅甸、越南 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.26 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but faced a net loss of 570 million yuan due to the impact of Gramer's performance [1][5] - The revenue from the Gramer division was 16.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, while the revenue from the company's own division increased by 60.3% to 6.43 billion yuan [5] - The company aims for a 50%-80% increase in sales revenue for the passenger car seat business in 2025, building on the growth from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 14.0%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product sales structure and a decline in commercial vehicle seat gross margins [5] - The overall expense ratio for 2024 was 14.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses rising to 9.5% [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 650 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.25 billion yuan respectively [5][6] Business Segments - The passenger car seat business delivered 330,000 sets, generating revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 655 million yuan in the previous year [5] - The smart air vent business generated revenue of 410 million yuan in 2024, up from 280 million yuan, with EBIT of 44 million yuan [5] - The company also began generating revenue from the car refrigerator business, contributing approximately 120 million yuan [5] Market Outlook - The company is transitioning from a domestic supplier to a global supplier of passenger car seats, with 21 ongoing projects as of February 28, 2025 [5] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings elasticity driven by the continued production of passenger car seats and the improvement of Gramer's profitability in Europe [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the photovoltaic conductive paste sector, capitalizing on opportunities during multiple iterations of domestic production, mono and multi-crystalline transitions, and the switch to N-type technology, resulting in rapid business expansion [7][11]. - The innovative TOPCon high-copper paste solution utilizes silver-coated copper powder to significantly reduce costs by replacing a large proportion of silver powder with lower-cost copper, which is compatible with high-temperature processes while maintaining electrical performance and reliability [7][11]. - If the company successfully collaborates with downstream customers, mass production is expected within the year, which will enhance both scale and profitability [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts total revenue of 9.6 billion RMB in 2023, growing to 15.4 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% and 60% respectively [2]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 385 million RMB in 2023 and 360 million RMB in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [2]. - The company maintains a high return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 78.6% [3][2]. Company Overview - Established in 2010, the company focuses on the research, production, and sales of conductive paste for photovoltaic cells, becoming the first domestic company to list in this sector in 2020 [11][12]. - The company has expanded into the semiconductor field since 2019, leveraging its core technology platform to introduce packaging and printed electronic pastes [11][21]. - The company has maintained a strong R&D focus, with R&D expenses consistently accounting for 3-4% of total revenue [24][11]. Market Position and Growth - The company has achieved a leading position in the N-type paste market, with a significant increase in shipments, particularly in 2023, where sales volume surged by 138% to 1714 tons [40][42]. - The company is actively involved in the technological iteration of photovoltaic materials, adapting to the rapid transition from P-type to diverse N-type technologies, which enhances its competitive edge [40][42]. - The anticipated completion of the silver nitrate project in 2025 is expected to further stabilize the supply chain and reduce material costs [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the AI+Education industry, particularly highlighting companies with strong research and product capabilities that are early adopters of AI technology [2][3]. Core Insights - The AI+Education sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by advancements in AI technology, supportive policies, and a strong demand for personalized learning solutions. Companies like Duolingo and Bean Education are leading the way with innovative AI features that enhance user experience and increase user value [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of both hardware and software applications in the AI+Education landscape, noting that the integration of AI into educational tools is expanding rapidly across various learning scenarios [46][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AI+Education industry is evolving from traditional online education, with a clear trajectory towards more interactive and personalized learning experiences. Companies that have established a strong brand presence and research capabilities are well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing penetration of AI in education [13][14]. Development Drivers - Key factors driving the growth of AI+Education include a broad user base with a strong willingness to pay, supportive government policies promoting equitable access to educational resources, and technological advancements that reduce costs and improve the functionality of educational tools [29][33]. Application Scenarios - The report categorizes AI applications in education into hardware and software dimensions. In the hardware sector, smart learning devices are gaining traction, particularly in the wake of regulatory changes that limit traditional tutoring methods. In the software sector, AI-powered learning apps are emerging, offering personalized learning paths and automated grading features [46][62]. Company Insights - Duolingo is highlighted for its gamified approach and rapid user growth, with innovative features like AI-driven video calls enhancing user engagement. The company reported a DAU of 40.5 million in Q4 2024, a 51% year-over-year increase [2][69]. - Bean Education is noted for its AI capabilities that enhance user experience and increase customer value through personalized learning solutions. The company is actively exploring partnerships to develop next-generation educational products [2][69]. - Other companies such as Good Future and Youdao are also making significant strides in integrating AI into their educational offerings, with a focus on enhancing existing products and launching new applications [2][69].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究 2025 年 04 月 03 日 关注转债抗跌性 可转债策略周报（0324-0328） 一、一周行情回顾：转债市场继续随权益市场下跌，跌幅较前一周收窄 截至上周五，万得全 A 指数收于 5,161.01 点，一周下跌 1.29%；上证指数收于 3,351.31 点，一周下跌 0.40%；中证转债收于 429.63 点，一周下跌 0.20%；可 转债正股指数收于 1,803.07 点，一周下跌 2.19%。 权益市场方面，上周上证指数缩量下跌。上周上证指数、深证综指及创业板指 下跌，沪深 300、上证 50、深证 100 小幅上涨，大盘股优势明显。分行业看， 上周医药生物、农林牧渔、食品饮料和家用电器行业表现较好，前期表现强劲 的计算机、通信行业在继续领跌。 转债行情方面，中证转债指数小幅下跌，同时成交量、成交额继续下滑。上周 AA+级别转债、大盘转债、低价转债表现占优。分行业看，农林牧渔、家用电 器、公用事业、非银金融、银行行业转债表现相对较好，通信、电气设备、计 算机、汽车和国防军工行业转债跌幅领先。个券层面，回盛转债（农林牧渔）、 润禾转债（化工）、汇车退债（汽车）、京源转 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1870 CNY, while the current stock price is 1549.02 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a reasonable revenue growth slowdown to around 9% in 2025, following two years of sales growth exceeding 10%. This is attributed to external environmental pressures faced in 2023 and 2024. The easing of volume pressure is anticipated to stabilize the wholesale price [1][6]. - The focus for the company will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and quality, as well as cultivating consumer groups. Historically, industry adjustment periods have provided opportunities for strong companies to further exploit their potential and expand their advantages [1][6]. - The current valuation stands at 21x PE, with a dividend yield maintained above 3.5%, indicating a safety margin for investors [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1741.4 billion CNY and a net profit of 862.3 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, respectively [6][7]. - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in 2024 was 1459 billion CNY and 247 billion CNY, showing growth of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively. Moutai liquor sales volume increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons [6][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 924.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach 190.1 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.78 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.7 [7][16]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to remain stable around 49.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 37.9% [16].