证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 消费医疗跟踪复盘周报（六） 屈光术式迭代驱动行业量价提升，近年来屈光几种术式 迭代都是什么？ 消费品/生物医药 事件： 屈光手术技术迭代驱动行业量价提升，全光塑、4.0、全飞秒 VISUMAX800* 及新微创手术 SMILE pro、STAAR ICL V5 （1）2023 年 12 月，全光塑近视手术在中国上市，进一步推动个性化屈光手 术发展。爱尔康公司推出的个性化屈光手术方案，3D 模型+AI 算法。全光塑的 出现，标志着个性化近视矫正进入了 4.0 时代——全眼定制式治疗。这一技术 的核心在于其独特的 3D 眼球模型重构和光迹追踪技术，使其在精确性、安全 性和视觉效果方面都有显著提升。 （2）全飞秒 4.0 于 2024 年逐步在中国市场推广开来，相较于全飞秒 3.0，软 件升级集成更高级大数据算法，全飞秒也能个性化定制。 （3）2025 年 1 月 20 日，蔡司的新一代机器人全飞秒 VISUMAX800*及新微 创手术 SMILE pro 获得国家药品监督管理局批准，用于近视和/或散光患者的 角膜屈光不正矫正。 （4）ICL V5 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 3 月 16 日 中短周期利率择时信号转中性 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20250314 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.83%，相对上周升高 3.15BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.69%、0.27%、-0.11%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位 较低、凸性结构点位接近历史低位的状态。 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 利率价量周期择时信号：中性震荡。 - 利率数据的多周期择时信号为：长周期向上突破、中周期无信号、 短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突破 1 票、上行突破 1 票，由于 3 种周期下的同向突破总得票数未达 2/3，最终信号的综 合评分结果为中性震荡。 公募债基行为跟踪：久期下降、分歧提升 利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2023 年底以来，策略的短期年化收益率为 7.85%，最大回撤为 1.63%，收益回撤比为 6.73，相对业绩基准的超额收益率为 2.91% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 0.7% from March 9 to March 15, with significant growth in production and sales driven by new policies and technological upgrades [1][2]. - The report highlights the successful pre-sale of the Leap B10 model, which achieved over 31,688 orders within 48 hours, showcasing strong consumer interest in innovative electric vehicles [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile, which are expected to perform well due to their strong sales and potential blockbuster models [28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's secondary segments mostly saw increases, with the automotive services sector leading at +3.3%, followed by passenger vehicles and motorcycles at +2.6% and +1.2% respectively [11][2]. - Notable individual stock performances included Xilong Health (+61.0%), Zhaofeng Co. (+44.2%), and Xiangyang Bearing (+36.6%), while Zhejiang Liming (-17.4%) and Yinlun Co. (-14.4%) faced declines [3][14]. Recent Developments - The report notes that several companies are advancing in autonomous driving technology, with L3 level production expected from Lantu and significant partnerships being formed, such as Audi's collaboration with Zhongsheng Group [22][26]. - The report also mentions the global expansion plans of Xiaopeng Motors, which aims to enter 60 countries by 2025, enhancing its international presence [28]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a trend towards higher levels of automation and smart technology integration, as seen in the introduction of models equipped with advanced features like laser radar and AI systems [22][27].

Core Insights - The report indicates that consumer stocks are expected to become the second main investment theme in 2025, alongside AI+ technologies, due to several macroeconomic factors [2][3][8] - The significant decline in export growth in January and February 2025 has increased the importance of boosting domestic consumption to achieve the GDP growth target of 5% [17][29] - The government budget for 2025 shows a notable increase in broad fiscal spending, projected to grow by around 9%, which is expected to enhance consumption growth [9][29] - The upcoming annual and quarterly reports are anticipated to confirm an upward turning point in free cash flow, particularly in the consumer sector, which is expected to show significant improvement [10][32] - The valuation of consumer stocks is projected to revert to around 20 times earnings, making them more attractive compared to previous high valuations [10][52] - Foreign investment preferences are likely to shift from technology stocks to consumer sectors, indicating a potential increase in foreign capital inflow into Chinese consumer assets [10][12] Economic Context - The A-share market has shown a strong performance recently, driven by the consumer sector, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being highlighted during the National People's Congress [4][11] - The report notes that the consumer sector's performance is crucial for achieving the GDP growth target, especially given the recent slowdown in export growth [17][29] - The report emphasizes the correlation between government spending and retail sales growth, suggesting that increased government expenditure will positively impact consumer spending [29][30] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable performance or marginal improvements, particularly those with improving free cash flow, as these are expected to outperform in the coming months [3][11] - Key sectors to watch include consumer services, electronics, automotive, and healthcare, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated economic recovery and policy support [13][51] - The report highlights the importance of free cash flow as a key metric for evaluating investment opportunities, particularly in the consumer sector, which currently shows the highest free cash flow yield [33][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant recovery in dry bulk freight rates, with increased demand for iron ore and coal, while oil shipping is seeing a rise in geopolitical risk premiums due to ongoing sanctions [8][12][14]. - Infrastructure assets remain attractive for investment, particularly in the context of a long-term interest rate decline, with H-shares offering a dividend yield above 6% [16]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain double-digit growth in volume, driven by increasing online shopping frequency and the rise of live-streaming e-commerce platforms [18]. - The airline industry is in a post-pandemic recovery phase, with demand expected to grow due to economic stimulus policies, while supply remains constrained due to global supply chain issues [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - Dry bulk freight rates are on the rise, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 19.2% this week, driven by higher demand for iron ore and coal [29]. - Oil shipping rates are also improving, with VLCC rates reaching $39,000 per day, up 3% this week [31]. - The container shipping market is seeing a decline in rates, with SCFI indices dropping significantly across major routes [23]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Road passenger traffic in November 2024 was 990 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while rail passenger turnover increased by 17.6% in January 2025 [15][33]. - The report highlights the potential for improved performance in the infrastructure sector as domestic demand stabilizes [16]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery volume for January-February 2025 reached 28.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with revenue growing by 11.2% [17][36]. - The concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery market is at 87.1, indicating a stable competitive landscape [17]. Airline Sector Summary - Domestic air ticket prices have decreased by 4% week-on-week, while passenger volume has increased by 3% [19][42]. - The airline industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-demand dynamics improve in 2025-2026 [20]. Logistics Sector Summary - Cross-border air freight prices have decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, while the average short-haul freight rate remains stable at approximately 60 yuan per ton [21][48]. - The logistics sector is closely monitoring the impact of U.S.-China tariff policies on the supply chain [21].

评论： 1、玉米：产量微增但消费预期向好，全球产需缺口持续扩大 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 全球玉米及豆麦产需预期上修，大豆供应仍显宽松 USDA 月度供需报告点评 202503 消费品/农林牧渔 事件： 美国农业部发布 2025 年 3 月份农产品供需报告。 本月报告调增全球玉米产量预期。由于印度、俄罗斯和乌克兰预期增产部分被 南非和墨西哥的减产所部分抵消，本月 USDA 报告上修 2024/25 年全球玉米产 量预期 170 万吨至 12.14 亿吨，较上年度下滑约 1.1%，较前值扩大约 0.14%。 其中：1）印度上修产量预期主要是由于降水丰沛利好单产提升，同时官方披露 的本季种植面积有所增加。2）结合俄罗斯官方数据，本月报告上修其 2024/25 年玉米产量预期 75 万吨至 1400 万吨，较前值扩大约 5.7%。3）本月报告调增 乌克兰玉米产量预期约 30 万吨至 2680 万吨。4）南非产量预期下修 100 万吨 主要反映了面积的缩减；墨西哥玉米产量预期下调约 40 万吨，主要是因为冬季 玉米预期减产。 消费预期向好，全球玉米产需缺口持续扩大。贸易方面，本 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业联合报告 2025 年 03 月 15 日 银行研思录之四 险资持股银行现状和举牌展望 研究部/总量研究 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 388 | 7.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 18137.2 | 20.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 17589.1 | 21.8 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | | | | | 相对表现 Mar/24 | Jul/24 | Oct/24 | Feb/25 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 | 王先爽 | S1090524100006 | | --- | --- | | wangxianshuang@cmschina.com. | | | cn | | | 郑积沙 | S1090516020001 | | zhengjisha@cmschina.com.cn | | | 戴甜甜 | S1090523070003 | | daitiantian@cmschina.com. ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 3 月 14 日 2 月金融数据怎么看 其它分项方面，"非标"融资与企业直接融资较上年同期变化不大。"非 标"当月减少约 3500 亿（上年同期减少约 3300 亿）。其中，新增未贴现银 行承兑汇票减少约 3000 亿，较上年同期少减约 700 亿。综合票据融资较上年 同期多增来看，银行对票据融资的需求仍然旺盛。企业直接融资新增约 1780 亿（上年同期新增 1537 亿）。根据 Wind 口径，产业债净融资 1976.2 亿元 （上年同期约 1270 亿），城投债净融资约 550 亿元（上年同期约-369 亿）。 央行更新 2 月金融数据： 核心关注： □ 增量视角： ∙ 社融增速环比回升，政府债发挥主要贡献 二月，社融新增 2.23 万亿，同比多增 7374 亿；同比增长 8.2%，较上月回升 0.2pct。从分项来看，社融口径下的信贷新增约 6500 亿，同比减少约 3300 亿；当月新增政府债约 1.7 万亿元，同比多增约 1.1 万亿，对社融的贡献率升 至 76%。其中，国债净融资约 4200 亿（上年同期约 2650 亿），地方债净融 资 1.27 万 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 如何理解 M1 增速？ 总量研究/银行 3 月 14 日，央行公布 25 年 2 月金融数据。各项增速和增量情况见表 1-表 5。 整体来看，社融和信贷情况与我们《2 月社融货币前瞻》一致，但 M1 增速延 续 1 月下行，低于我们预期，我们解读如下： 我们在上月金融数据点评中详细阐述新老 M1 口径的差异和春节错位带来的 M1 增速影响，1 月 M1 增速回落符合季节性，按照季节性 2 月 M1 增速应该有所回 升。但 2 月新口径 M1 增速 0.1%，继续回落 0.3pct。我们测算 2 月老口径 M1 增速为-2.5%，较 1 月环比回升 3.3pct，虽然回升，但增速仍低于去年 12 月份 增速，也就是今年前两个月合计，新老口径 M1 均同比回落。 M1 增速为何重要？M1 主要是居民和单位活期，活期存款对居民部门来说可以 理解为交易性流动性需求，体现为消费、购房和非存款类金融投资的潜在意愿。 对企业来说，活期存款一方面体现为企业部门经营性现金流回笼顺畅，另一方 面显示企业部门有潜在采购或投资需求，需 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: DTW Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Based on the principle of similarity and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm, this model identifies timing signals by comparing current market trends with historical patterns[4][25] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the similarity between the current index trend and historical market trends using the DTW distance metric, which is more flexible than Euclidean distance for time-series data[27] - Historical segments with high similarity are selected as references - The weighted average future returns and standard deviations of these historical segments are calculated (weights are the inverse of the DTW distance) - Trading signals are generated based on the average future returns and standard deviations[25] - Improved DTW algorithms, such as those with Sakoe-Chiba and Itakura boundary constraints, are used to address issues like "over-warping" in traditional DTW[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The DTW algorithm is particularly suitable for time-series problems and outperforms other methods due to its flexibility in handling temporal misalignments[27] 2. Model Name: Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages the price movements of offshore assets related to A-shares to generate timing signals for the A-share market[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Two offshore assets are used: FTSE China A50 Index Futures (Singapore market) and Southern A50 ETF (Hong Kong market) - For FTSE China A50 Index Futures, two indicators are constructed: basis and price deviation - For Southern A50 ETF, a price deviation indicator is constructed - Timing signals from these two assets are combined to form the overall foreign capital timing signal[32] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. DTW Timing Model - **Out-of-Sample Performance (Since November 2022)**: - Absolute return: 25.38% - Excess return over CSI 300: 19.02% - Maximum drawdown: 20.07% - Weekly win rate: Over 60% - Weekly win rate in 2024: Over 70%[4][16] - **Performance in 2024 (CSI 300)**: - Absolute return: 23.58% - Excess return: 5.27% - Maximum drawdown: 14.88% - Trading win rate: 63.64% - Profit-loss ratio: 2.64[16] 2. Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Full-Sample Performance (2014-2024)**: - Annualized return: 18.96% (long-short), 14.19% (long-only) - Maximum drawdown: 25.69% (long-short), 17.27% (long-only) - Daily win rate: Nearly 55% - Profit-loss ratio: Above 2.5[18] - **Out-of-Sample Performance in 2024**: - Long-only strategy: - Absolute return: 28.05% - Maximum drawdown: 8.32% - Long-short strategy: - Absolute return: 21.66% - Maximum drawdown: 13.14%[21]