Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Anta Sports [3][10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA both experienced high single-digit growth, while other brands saw growth between 65% and 70%. The company is deepening online discounts and has a relatively healthy inventory situation [1][2][10] - Anta plans to acquire Jack Wolfskin for $290 million to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio, which is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [6][10] - The projected net profits for Anta from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.43 billion, 15.51 billion, and 17.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 15%, and 11% respectively, excluding one-time gains from the Amer acquisition [1][10] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 77.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%. The company expects to achieve revenues of 85.45 billion yuan in 2026 and 92.97 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 16x for 2025 and 14x for 2026 [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, Anta's inventory turnover ratio is less than 5, indicating effective inventory management [6][10] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand saw high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, with children's products also performing well. The overall online sales for the brand experienced low double-digit growth [1][11] - FILA's sales in Q1 2025 showed high single-digit growth, with children's products growing at a low double-digit rate and the FILA Fusion line achieving high double-digit growth [2][11] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported significant growth rates of 60% and 100% respectively in Q1 2025 [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price of 193 HKD per share, while the current share price is 141.7 HKD [2]. Core Insights - JD Group is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.6% in Q1 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit projected to grow by 15% [1][6]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the electronics and daily necessities categories, with a solid self-operated e-commerce model providing a competitive edge [1][6]. - The company is anticipated to benefit significantly from domestic consumption policies, especially if new stimulus measures are introduced [1][6]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 1,084,662 million HKD - 2024: 1,158,819 million HKD (4% growth) - 2025E: 1,251,543 million HKD (7% growth) - 2026E: 1,329,509 million HKD (8% growth) - 2027E: 1,397,248 million HKD (6% growth) [2][7] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 35,200 million HKD - 2024: 47,827 million HKD (25% growth) - 2025E: 52,165 million HKD (36% growth) - 2026E: 56,387 million HKD (9% growth) - 2027E: 60,819 million HKD (8% growth) [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 8.34 HKD - 2024: 14.27 HKD - 2025E: 17.23 HKD - 2026E: 18.82 HKD - 2027E: 20.37 HKD [2][10] - **Valuation Ratios**: - PE (Non-GAAP): - 2023: 10.9 - 2024: 8.0 - 2025E: 7.3 - 2026E: 6.8 - 2027E: 6.3 [2][9] Stock Performance - **Absolute Performance**: - 1 month: -9.2% - 6 months: -13.0% - 12 months: +36.6% [4] Shareholder Information - Total shares outstanding: 3,183 million - Total market capitalization: 467 billion HKD - Major shareholder: Max Smart Limited with a 9.6% stake [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The effect of consumption - promotion policies is gradually emerging, with the year - on - year decline of CPI narrowing, basically in line with market expectations. The overall price level is gradually recovering, and the generalized price index (PCI) continues to rise, indicating an improvement in the overall price level. Policy support is expected to continue, and incremental policies are likely to be introduced to maintain the momentum of price recovery [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. CPI and Core CPI Analysis - In March, CPI decreased month - on - month. Food, energy, and tourism - related items were the main drags. Core CPI was relatively strong, with clothing, household goods and services showing significant increases. The "trade - in" policy supported the demand for household appliances, and service prices also rose, indicating positive signals on the demand side and a mild recovery of the price level from a low position [1][2] 2. PPI Analysis - In March, PPI decreased month - on - month. The decline in international crude oil prices, reduced coal demand after the heating season, and the downward trend of some raw material industries led to the decline in PPI [2] 3. Generalized Price Index (PCI) Analysis - In March, the PCI continued to rise due to the narrowing decline of housing prices and the weakening of the US dollar. The PCI is correlated with the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate. The marginal decline of the stock market in April may weaken the upward momentum of the PCI, reducing the pressure on the bond market [3][4] 4. Policy Expectations - Policies aim for a moderate recovery of prices. In the face of the impact of US tariff increases, it is expected that domestic incremental policies will be introduced, with loose monetary policies likely to be implemented first, which will help stabilize the economy and financial markets and continue the price recovery trend [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 29136 | 32983 | 55334 | 62189 | 66938 | | 同比增长 | 2% | 13% | 68% | 12% | 8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 6786 | 7828 | 12748 | 14879 | 16346 | | 同比增长 | -12% | 15% | 63% | 17% | 10% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 5651 | 6338 | 10747 | 12600 | 13876 | | 同比增长 | -10% | 12% | 70% | 17% | 10% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.77 | 0.86 | 1.47 | 1.72 | 1.89 | | PE | 20.1 | 17.9 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 | | PB | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | ...

CPI Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased to 0.5% year-on-year from -0.1% in the previous month[11] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, a narrowing of the decline by 1.9 percentage points compared to last month[10] PPI Analysis - March PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4%[17] - Production materials prices fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with the largest drop in the mining industry, particularly coal and oil extraction[17] - Living materials prices decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[17] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food, services, and consumer goods[24] - The overall inflation target of 2% for the year remains distant, with new consumption policies anticipated to provide some support[24] - April PPI is likely to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with a focus on expanding internal demand and stabilizing growth policies[25]

Inflation Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.5% in March from -0.1% in February, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[10] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[9] PPI Trends - March PPI year-on-year fell by 2.5%, with production materials down by 2.8%, marking an increase in the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors experienced the largest declines, with coal mining PPI down by 14.9% year-on-year[18] - Manufacturing and construction sectors showed seasonal demand expansion, but overall industrial demand remains weak, impacting PPI negatively[23] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food and service sectors, but seasonal factors may lead to a decline in food prices[22] - PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with potential policy adjustments to stimulate growth[23]

Group 1: Supply Chain Security as a Focus of Great Power Competition - The report highlights that supply chain security has become a focal point in the geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, with increased measures to weaken China's advantages in shipping and energy resources [4][7][13]. Group 2: Energy Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report details the vulnerabilities in the energy supply chain, emphasizing the high import dependency rates for various energy sources, such as crude oil (72%), liquefied natural gas (79%), and nickel (100%) [4][14][27]. - It suggests that the oil and gas sectors, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, are critical areas for short-term investment due to their exposure to supply chain risks [4][14][27]. Group 3: Metal Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Investment Opportunities - The report outlines the high import dependency for key metals, including iron ore (54%), copper (92.9%), and manganese (98%), indicating a significant reliance on foreign sources [4][43][52]. - It identifies potential investment opportunities in the metal sector, particularly in companies involved in the extraction and processing of these minerals, given the ongoing demand and supply chain challenges [4][43][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has experienced significant profit growth, with both 2024 and Q1 2025 profits showing high increases due to the recovery of its main business and the release of AI computing demand [1][7] - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth in the AI computing sector, having established a subsidiary focused on providing high-performance infrastructure products for AI applications [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 30.33 billion in 2022 to 58.09 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [2][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.19 billion in 2022 to 3.33 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [2][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.48 in 2022 to 1.33 in 2026, indicating strong profitability improvements [2][11] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 86.7 in 2022 to 31.0 in 2026, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][11] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 40.34 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, and a net profit of 1.25 billion, up 280.73% from the previous year [7] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.53 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.41% [7] - The company has seen a significant increase in orders for its AI computing services, indicating strong demand and a positive outlook for future revenue recognition [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested in establishing a subsidiary, Tengyun Zhikuan, to enhance its capabilities in providing comprehensive AI computing services [7] - The launch of new products that integrate with the DeepSeek model has positioned the company to capitalize on the growing AI market [7]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 经营质量有待优化，推荐拓品类&渠道运营力强的品牌龙头 港股运动鞋服 2024 年报综述 消费品/轻工纺服 2024 年运动鞋服龙头流水承压，盈利能力及营运能力下滑。目前需求细分化趋 势持续演绎，国际运动鞋服龙头推新加速，有望提升细分赛道景气度。建议重 点关注在拓品类&优化渠道进度快，品牌影响力高的品牌，有望在市场波动情 况下保持经营稳健，在需求回暖的情况下获取份额。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 295 | 5.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1617.6 | 2.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1419.3 | 1.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -8.7 -7.5 -0.6 相对表现 -2.2 -0.7 -4.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Apr/24 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 (%) 轻工纺服 沪深300 相关报告 1、《纺织服装海外趋势跟踪（2025 年 3 月）— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in 2024 with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 1.345 billion, 311 million, and 302 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 40.22%, 96.17%, and 102.17%, which is in line with the forecast range [1][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, resulting in improved profit margins in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 43.62% and a net margin of 23.1%, both showing significant year-on-year increases [8] - The company has achieved substantial growth across its business segments, particularly in overseas markets, with notable increases in contract revenue and product sales [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 959 million yuan in 2023 to 1.892 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 41% [3][12] - **Profitability**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 158 million yuan in 2023 to 411 million yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 32% [3][12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.37 yuan in 2023 to 0.95 yuan in 2025 [3][13] - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 63.4 in 2023 to 24.5 in 2025, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [3][13] Business Segment Performance - **Revenue by Segment**: In 2024, the company reported revenue from various segments: 879 million yuan from composite insulators for substations, 223 million yuan from rubber seals, and 209 million yuan from composite insulators for transmission and transformation lines, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.71%, 14.1%, and 126.57% respectively [8] - **International Market Expansion**: The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, achieving 742 million yuan in overseas revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.05% [8] Competitive Advantages - The company holds a significant market share in the high-end composite insulator market, supplying over 80% of the composite insulator products for more than 70 ultra-high voltage substations [8] - The company is transitioning from being primarily an equipment supplier to a comprehensive solution provider, which is expected to enhance its business scale and market presence [8]