证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 03 月 09 日 本季新大规模 XPU 客户增至 4 家，维持 AI 业务长期指引 博通（AVGO.O）25Q1 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 博通（NASDAQ:AVGO）发布 FY2025Q1 季报，第一财季营收 149.16 亿美元， 同比+25%/环比+6%，毛利率为 79.1%，同比+3.74pcts /环比+2.2pcts。综合财 报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、FY25Q1 营收毛利率均超出此前预期同环比增长，库存环比有所增长。 FY25Q1 营收 149.16 亿美元，同比+25%/环比+6%，超出此前指引（约 146 亿 美元）；毛利率为 79.1%，同比+3.74pcts /环比+2.2pcts，高于此前指引，得益 于基础设施软件收入的增加和更有利的半导体收入组合。Q1 末的库存为 19 亿 美元，较上季度增长 8%，以支持未来几个季度的收入，第一季度的库存周转天 数为 65 天。 2、FY25Q1 AI 业务营收同比+77%至 41 亿美元，软件受益 VMwar 增长明显。 1）半导体部门：收入为 82 亿美元，占 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观分析报告 2025 年 3 月 12 日 ——美国 2 月 CPI 点评 频率：月度 事件： 2025 年 3 月 12 日美国劳工统计局发布：2 月 CPI 环比 0.2%（前值 0.5%），核 心 CPI 环比 0.2%（前值 0.4%）；CPI 同比 2.8%（前值 3.0%），核心 CPI 同比 3.1%（前值 3.3%）。 核心观点： 定期报告 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张岸天 S1090522070002 zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn 降息降息 ❑ 2 月美国通胀数据超预期降温。除能源商品价格下行之外，核心通胀项下的 房租价格涨幅温和，出行需求放缓带动机票价格大幅回落，主要的拉动项 目为二手车和医疗护理服务。美联储降息预期强化，美股的调整压力明显 缓解、纳指反弹。1）美国 2 月 CPI 同比降至 2.8%（前值 3.0%），略低于 市场预期的 2.9%。布伦特原油价格在 2 月下旬小幅波动回落，截至 3 月 11 日降至 71 美元/桶附近，全美平均汽油价格在 3.6 美元/加 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 3 月 12 日 国产崛起对 AI 投资的影响 华宝上证科创板人工智能 ETF 本文围绕华宝上证科创板人工智能 ETF（基金代码：589520）的投资价值展开分 析，主要结论如下。 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发 生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 任 瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 专题报告 ❑ 技术进步和需求扩张驱动产业持续发展，未来 AI 应用空间广阔。从 2023 年 以来，随着 ChatGPT 火爆全球，AI 大模型进入快速发展的阶段，当前各大 科技厂商均推出了各家的大模型。根据 Scaling Law，要想构建性能更强的大 模型，需要更多的算力和数据，未来 AI 应用将有更广阔的发展空间。 ❑ DeepSeek R1 发布后大模型价格快速下降，或推动 AI 应用加速普及。随着 Deepseek R1 模型的发布，R1 以 OpenAI O1 的 3%-5%的成本达到其接近 的能力水平。这一事件也标志着国产大模型的强势崛起。国产大模型（尤其 是 De ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company has been actively engaging in brand-building activities since the peak season of FY25, enhancing brand momentum through high-end channel openings and product innovation to drive steady growth [1][6]. - Revenue projections for FY25 to FY27 are estimated at RMB 25.62 billion, RMB 28.93 billion, and RMB 32.48 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 12% respectively [1][6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 3.49 billion, RMB 4.00 billion, and RMB 4.51 billion, reflecting growth rates of 14%, 15%, and 13% respectively [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for FY2023 was RMB 16.77 billion, with a growth rate of 3%, and is expected to reach RMB 25.62 billion in FY2025, representing a 10% increase [2][9]. - Operating profit for FY2023 was RMB 2.64 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, projected to grow to RMB 4.61 billion in FY2025 [2][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is estimated at RMB 0.32, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.4 [2][10]. - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 48.9 billion, with a current share price of HKD 4.23 [3][6]. Brand and Product Strategy - The company has launched several brand-building initiatives, including participation in the "New Life Paris Exhibition" and collaborations with local governments to create brand IPs [6]. - Product innovation is emphasized, with the introduction of lightweight and versatile spring products suitable for various outdoor activities [6]. - The company is focusing on high-end channel openings to enhance operational efficiency and brand presence [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6][7] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance met market expectations, driven by increased sales from major clients and innovations in AI terminals, indicating a new growth cycle [6][7] - The company is expected to accelerate growth in Q1 2025, supported by new product launches and increased production capacity [6][7] - The company is actively expanding its presence in AI terminals, smart vehicles, and low-orbit satellites, which are anticipated to drive multiple growth opportunities [6][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit of 3.62 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year [6][7] - Q4 revenue was 11.65 billion, reflecting a 0.4% year-on-year increase and a 12.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 1.65 billion, up 14.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The company forecasts revenues of 35.14 billion, 41.29 billion, and 47.49 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.62 billion, 4.46 billion, and 5.33 billion [6][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its technological capabilities and expanding high-end production capacity, particularly in AI-related products [6][7] - The report highlights the expected innovation cycle from major clients, particularly in AI-integrated devices, which is projected to drive significant growth from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI servers, automotive electronics, and low-orbit satellite applications, providing long-term growth momentum [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the power electronics industry and has established a strong management team with significant technical expertise. It has diversified its business into six major matrices and is making strides in the AI server power supply sector, having integrated its products into NVIDIA's supply chain [1][7]. - The company has achieved substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of 82.01 billion, 108.44 billion, and 137.73 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 32%, and 27% [2][46]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2022 was 5,478 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 32%. The projected revenue for 2023 is 6,754 million RMB, reflecting a 23% increase [2]. - The company expects net profits of 575 million RMB and 883 million RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 58X and 38X [7][46]. - The company’s total assets and liabilities show a debt ratio of 57.7%, indicating a stable financial position [20][23]. Business Overview - The company operates in six main product categories: smart home appliance control products, power supply products, new energy and rail transit components, industrial automation, intelligent equipment, and precision connections [15][16]. - The company has made significant advancements in the AI server power supply market, launching a modular 5.5kW AI power module compatible with NVIDIA's GB200 system [7][32]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has established partnerships with leading international clients, including Ericsson and Cisco, and is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-related power supply solutions [32]. - The report highlights the increasing power requirements in data centers driven by AI applications, projecting a significant market opportunity for the company in the coming years [33][38]. Research and Development - The company emphasizes R&D, with a reported R&D expenditure of 6.96 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 33% increase year-on-year [26][28]. - The management team, largely composed of former Huawei and Emerson employees, brings strong technical capabilities to the company, enhancing its competitive edge [26][27]. Revenue Forecast - The company anticipates revenue from its smart home appliance segment to reach 38.06 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 45% [44]. - The power supply segment is expected to generate revenues of 23.97 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 13% [44]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by its strategic positioning in the AI power supply market and robust revenue growth across its diversified business segments [1][3][46].

Group 1: Overall Industry Trends - The overall economic sentiment has improved in midstream manufacturing, information technology, and utilities sectors, with notable recovery in construction materials and rising metal prices [2][4] - In February, various excavators and loaders saw significant year-on-year sales growth, indicating a positive trend in the engineering machinery sector [2][4] - The semiconductor sales globally showed an expanding year-on-year growth in January, with Taiwanese electronic manufacturers experiencing widespread revenue improvement in February [2][4] Group 2: Export and Import Dynamics - In the first two months of 2025, export growth has slowed down, with total export value reaching USD 539.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 2.3%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [11][21] - Imports also faced a decline, with a total value of USD 369.43 billion, reflecting a negative growth of -8.4%, indicating a slow recovery in domestic demand [11][21] - Exports to developed regions like the US and EU have generally decreased, while exports to emerging markets such as Latin America and ASEAN have shown steady growth [14][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Observations - In the information technology sector, the Philadelphia semiconductor index and Taiwan's semiconductor industry index have shown a downward trend, while the DXI index has increased [6][8] - The prices of DDR5 DRAM memory have risen, contributing to the overall positive performance in the semiconductor market [6][8] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, prices for lithium products have fluctuated, with some experiencing declines while others, like cobalt, have seen price increases [6][8] Group 4: Consumer Demand Insights - Consumer demand has shown mixed signals, with prices for fresh milk, sugar, and liquor declining, while pork prices have increased [4][6] - Retail sales in the home appliance sector have decreased compared to previous periods, indicating potential challenges in consumer spending [4][6] - The film industry has also faced a downturn, with box office revenues significantly declining [4][6] Group 5: Resource Price Tracking - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, while prices for rebar and steel billets have decreased [4][6] - Brent crude oil prices have declined, alongside a general decrease in chemical product prices [4][6] - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with significant increases in zinc, cobalt, nickel, lead, copper, aluminum, and tin [4][6] Group 6: Real Estate and Financial Sector - The monetary market has seen a net withdrawal, with SHIBOR rates rising, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [4][6] - The transaction volume of commodity housing has decreased, reflecting a slowdown in the real estate market [4][6] - The number of second-hand housing listings has also declined across various city tiers, suggesting a cooling market [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company's revenue for the reporting period reached 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, and the adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 730 million yuan, up 15.8%, aligning with market expectations [1][6] - The average monthly active users (MAU) reached 52.7 million, reflecting a robust growth of 27.9% year-on-year, with the total number of paying enterprise clients increasing by 17.3% to 6.1 million [1][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the domestic recruitment market and has provided guidance for Q1 2025 revenue to be between 1.90 billion and 1.92 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11.5% to 12.7% [1][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 82.8% in Q4 2024, with a slight improvement in expense ratios due to enhanced operational efficiency [1][6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at 8.484 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% [2][8] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is expected to be 2.077 billion yuan, reflecting a 31% increase compared to the previous year [2][8] User Growth and Market Position - The company continues to see strong user growth, with a significant increase in paying enterprise clients, which is a key driver for revenue [1][6] - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to leveraging technology to build competitive advantages, particularly through AI, which is expected to transform the recruitment industry [1][6] Valuation Metrics - The report projects a Non-GAAP net profit of 3.126 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19x, 17x, and 15x for the years 2025 to 2027 [2][6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.6% in 2024 to 14.2% by 2027 [9]

2025 年会成为商业医疗险新发展"元年"吗 ——商业医疗险发展前景展望 总量研究/非银行金融 在居民多元化医疗需求增加、商保意识加强+保险公司产品转型升级、医疗险 供给加快+医保数据共享、丙类药品目录等政策进程加快的多重利好之下， 2025 年或有望成为商业医疗险新发展"元年"。根据我们测算，若今后三年 商业医疗险在健康险保费占比提升至 50%，累计增量有望超 3000 亿。 ❑ 当前商业医疗险破局迎来哪些变化？ ❑ （1）基本医保制度改革催生高品质就医需求。人口结构改变使得现收现付 制的基本医保基金运行压力不断增强，根据中国社会科学院论文预测，我国 医保基金当年结存预计将在 2026 年左右首次出现缺口。因此，意在避免超 额支出、控制患者实际诊疗费用及自费支出的 DRG/DIP 支付模式成为近年 来基本医保的重大改革之一。从现阶段试点情况来看，次均住院费用出现一 定程度的下降且出现了门诊转诊倾向，一些高价的先进药械也无法在医院报 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 03 月 12 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | ...

银行研思录之三 何为"资产荒" 总量研究/银行 权益市场的高股息行情是固收市场资产荒的外溢，市场对资产荒的讨论也日趋 常见，但如何定义资产荒？为何会产生资产荒？规模多大？如何量化影响利 率？本轮资产荒反转导致的债券利率调整多少幅度合适？这都是值得思考的问 题，本篇研思录尝试给出我们的框架和理解。 ❑ 风险提示：测算仅考虑资产荒因素；政策力度低于预期；经济回暖低于预期。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 03 月 12 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 9299.1 | 10.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9190.0 | 11.5 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 0.6 22.4 25.7 相对表现 -0.9 -1.3 15.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Mar/24 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《票据利率回升，长债利率调整 — 银 行 资 负 跟 ...